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Jost, C, Walker,P, Bett, B, Poole,J, Azar, M,Murahman, J,Daju, D, McLaws,M, Schoonman,L, Unger, F,Mariner, JUSING A PARTIC...
Reproduction number (R)The number of new individuals that will become infected froma single infected individualTRANSMISSIB...
Risk factorsVariables associated with an increased risk for infectionRelative riskThe probability of infection occurring i...
Mass vaccination efficacystudy:One-year mass vaccinationprogramControl neighborhoodsSampling:16 districts on JavaAll H5N1 ...
Affected Neighborhood (RT):Focus group interviewMappingTransect walkGeo-referencing1-5 Affected Households:Individual inte...
EpidemiologicalrelationshipsHousingHusbandryBird contactsRisk factorsFOCUS GROUP INTERVIEWS
All householdsSpecies of poultryin each householdHouseholdsaffectedSpecies affectedin each householdSpread of theoutbreakT...
Triangulationinterview infoGeo-referencingIndexhouseholdClosestunaffectedhousehold2nd householdaffectedTRANSECT WALK AND G...
Morbidity,mortality,slaughter andsale ratesKey outbreakeventsHusbandrycharacteristicsTIMELINE
Commercial poultryPresent in the village in ½ of outbreaksInvolved in only 7.3% of outbreaksRelative risk for presence in ...
Within Flock R*Vaccinated areas: 2.23, 95% credibleinterval (1.96-2.51)Unvaccinated areas: 2.79, 95% CrI(2.52-3.10)Vaccina...
Backyard poultry on Java provide thenecessary conditions for indefinitetransmissionLevel of population immunity necessary ...
MoA IndonesiaDistrict VSImperial College LondonUSAID and the World BankACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
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Using a participatory approach to characterize HPAI outbreaks in Indonesian village poultry

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Presented by Jost, C., Walker, P., Bett, B., Poole, J., Azar, M., Murahman, J., Daju, D., McLaws, M., Schoonman, L., Unger, F. and Mariner, J. at the PENAPH First Technical Workshop, Chiangmai, Thailand, 11 – 13 December 2012.

Publicado en: Tecnología, Empresariales
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Using a participatory approach to characterize HPAI outbreaks in Indonesian village poultry

  1. 1. Jost, C, Walker,P, Bett, B, Poole,J, Azar, M,Murahman, J,Daju, D, McLaws,M, Schoonman,L, Unger, F,Mariner, JUSING A PARTICIPATORYAPPROACH TOCHARACTERIZE HPAIOUTBREAKS ININDONESIAN VILLAGEPOULTRY
  2. 2. Reproduction number (R)The number of new individuals that will become infected froma single infected individualTRANSMISSIBILITY
  3. 3. Risk factorsVariables associated with an increased risk for infectionRelative riskThe probability of infection occurring in an exposed groupversus a non-exposed groupRISK
  4. 4. Mass vaccination efficacystudy:One-year mass vaccinationprogramControl neighborhoodsSampling:16 districts on JavaAll H5N1 outbreaks diagnosedby VS1-3 randomly selectedoutbreaksInfection tree reconstructionSusceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) modelMETHODS
  5. 5. Affected Neighborhood (RT):Focus group interviewMappingTransect walkGeo-referencing1-5 Affected Households:Individual interviewTimeline2 Adjacent NeighborhoodTransect walkRapid interviewsPE TOOLS
  6. 6. EpidemiologicalrelationshipsHousingHusbandryBird contactsRisk factorsFOCUS GROUP INTERVIEWS
  7. 7. All householdsSpecies of poultryin each householdHouseholdsaffectedSpecies affectedin each householdSpread of theoutbreakTiming of eachhouseholdaffectedMAPPING
  8. 8. Triangulationinterview infoGeo-referencingIndexhouseholdClosestunaffectedhousehold2nd householdaffectedTRANSECT WALK AND GEO-REFERENCING
  9. 9. Morbidity,mortality,slaughter andsale ratesKey outbreakeventsHusbandrycharacteristicsTIMELINE
  10. 10. Commercial poultryPresent in the village in ½ of outbreaksInvolved in only 7.3% of outbreaksRelative risk for presence in outbreakhousehold:Muscovy ducksBackyard chickensBroilersGeeseBut not pigeons or ducks!Top risk factor for introduction: Newbird entry into household flocks(24.4%)Top risk factor for spread: Birdcontact between households (73.2%)RESULTS
  11. 11. Within Flock R*Vaccinated areas: 2.23, 95% credibleinterval (1.96-2.51)Unvaccinated areas: 2.79, 95% CrI(2.52-3.10)Vaccination coverage: 11% (5%-19%)Between Flock RVaccinated areas: 1.9, 95 % CrI(1.59,2.26)Unvaccinated areas: 2.07, 95% CrI(1.82,2.35)Vaccination coverage: 14% (5%-27%)RESULTS*decisive according to Jeffrey’s scaleof evidence (Bayes factor (BF)> 100)
  12. 12. Backyard poultry on Java provide thenecessary conditions for indefinitetransmissionLevel of population immunity necessary tointerrupt transmission:64.2% (+60.3-67.7%) of birds in householdflocks51.7% (+41.5-57.4%) of households inneighborhoodIncidence study: moderate levels of flockprotection reduced HPAI-compatibledisease incidence by 46%Cost > 1 million USDPE is a cost effective and simple tool forassessing the epidemiological impact ofdisease control measuresCost ~ 90,000 USDLESSONS LEARNT
  13. 13. MoA IndonesiaDistrict VSImperial College LondonUSAID and the World BankACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

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