Emerging zoonotic infectious diseases – past trends and future predictions. Conceptual framework of the causal links between livestock keeping, nutrition and health outcomes among the poor Poster prepared for the ILRI@40 Workshop, Addis Ababa, 7 November 2014

1. Trends
and
challenges
Livestock
and
healthy
lives
ILRI@40
Barbara
Szonyi
and
Delia
Grace
Emerging
zoono@c
infec@ous
diseases
–
past
trends
and
future
predic@ons
Maps
of
all
zoono@c
emerging
infec@ous
disease
events
(n
=
202)
since
1940
.
Size
of
circles
denotes
number
of
events
and
color
denotes
breakdown
of
events
in
terms
of
type
of
zoono@c
host.
Source:
D
Grace
et
al.
2002.
Mapping
of
poverty
and
likely
zoonoses
hot
spots.
Report
to
Department
of
Interna@onal
Development,
UK.
Updated
from
Jones,
K
et
al.
2008.
Global
trends
in
emerging
infec@ous
diseases
.Nature,:451
(7181),
990-­‐993.
Pictures
Barbara
Szonyi
b.szonyi@cgiar.org
Addis
Ababa
Ethiopia
●
ilri.org
Global
distribu@on
of
rela@ve
risk
of
an
EID
event.
Maps
are
derived
for
EID
events
caused
by
(a)
zoono@c
pathogens
from
wildlife,
(b)
zoono@c
pathogens
from
non-­‐wildlife,
(c)
drug-­‐resistant
pathogens
and
(d)
vector-­‐borne
pathogens.
Green
to
red
indicates
low
to
high
risk.
Source:
Jones,
K
et
al.
2008.
Global
trends
in
emerging
infec@ous
diseases
.Nature,:451
(7181),
990-­‐993.
This
document
is
licensed
for
use
under
a
Crea@ve
Commons
ABribu@on
–Non
commercial-­‐Share
Alike
3.0
Unported
License
November
2014
June
2012
Conceptual
framework
of
the
causal
links
between
livestock
keeping,
nutri@on
and
health
outcomes
among
the
poor
Right:
Hypothesized
causal
linkages
between
livestock
keeping
and
human
nutri@on
and
health
outcomes
among
the
poor
.
ASF
=
animal-­‐source
food;
HH
=
household;
arrows
indicate
different
causal
linkages
.
Source:
.F.
Randolph
et
al.
Role
of
livestock
in
human
nutri@on
and
health
for
poverty
reduc@on
in
developing
countries.
J.
Anim.
Sci.
2007.
85:2788–2800.
Food-­‐borne
diseases
in
the
developing
world
Approach
Lec:
Distribu@on
of
major
food-­‐
borne
zoonoses.
Source:
D
Grace
et
al.
2002.
Mapping
of
poverty
and
likely
zoonoses
hot
spots.
Report
to
Department
of
Interna@onal
Development,
UK.
1990
Rank
Condi9on
1
Lower
respiratory
infec@ons
2
Diarrheal
diseases
3
Preterm
birth
complica@ons
4
COPD
5
Malaria
6
Stroke
7
Protein-­‐energy
malnutri@on
8
Tuberculosis
9
Neonatal
encephalopathy
10
Ischemic
heart
disease
2010
Rank
Condi9on
1
Lower
respiratory
infec@ons
2
Diarrheal
diseases
3
Ischemic
heart
disease
4
Malaria
5
Stroke
6
HIV/AIDS
7
Preterm
birth
complica@ons
8
Road
injury
9
COPD
10
Low
back
pain
Trends
of
global
disease
burden
Rank
1990
Condi9on
1
Ischemic
heart
disease
2
Stroke
3
Low
back
pain
4
Road
injury
5
Lung
cancer
6
Major
depressive
disorder
7
COPD
8
Self-­‐harm
9
Other
musculoskeletal
10
Diabetes
Rank
2010
Condi9on
1
Ischemic
heart
disease
2
Stroke
3
Low
back
pain
4
Major
depressive
disorder
5
Lung
cancer
6
COPD
7
Other
musculoskeletal
8
Road
injury
9
Diabetes
10
Falls
Top
10
causes
of
DALY
in
developed
countries.
Disability-­‐adjusted
life
year
(DALY)
is
a
measure
of
overall
disease
burden,
expressed
as
the
number
of
years
lost
due
to
ill-­‐health,
disability
or
early
death.
Source:
Ins@tute
for
Health
Metrics
and
Evalua@on
(IHME)
Top
10
causes
of
DALY
in
developed
countries.
Source:
IHME