Flood Management Analytics: Reducing Risk Through Early Warning and Preparedness
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The document provides information on flood management and resilience. It discusses developing situational awareness through flood risk mapping, analytics to understand flood costs and impacts, and developing a smart response plan with specific actions before, during, and after flood events to minimize risks and speed recovery. These include understanding flood sources and zones, monitoring water levels, registering for warnings, installing protective equipment, creating response plans, and fostering social cooperation among local stakeholders to strengthen community resilience.
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Flood Management Analytics: Reducing Risk Through Early Warning and Preparedness
- 1. Flood Management Plan: 1. Situational Awareness 2. Analytics 3. Smart Response
- 2. Its all about Resilience: “The ability of a system to mitigate and recover from shock or change.” The art of bouncing back Flood Management
- 5. The number of natural disasters seems to be increasing, as are the number of people affected. (Note that the number of people actually killed by natural disasters has declined significantly over the period).
- 6. Achieving resilience is therefore a process, spanning multiple activities and time-scales Long run risk prediction (eg climate change impact, earthquake risk) Predicting demographic change (eg urbanization etc) Land use decisions Infrastructure hardening and duplication Evacuation and property securing Fore- casting (weather events) Emergency planning and simulation EVENT Public awareness Multi- decades Decade Sub-Decade ->Years Days -> hours Impact tracking First Response Hours-> Days Debris removal, restarting infrastructure Survivor search Emergency shelter, food, first aid, power etc Rebuilding and long- run recovery Short run economic “re-boot” Years –> Sub-Decade Weeks -> Months Corporate risk assessment Insurance portfolio management, contingency and capital market funds Building code revisions Months-> Weeks (Monitoring of pandemics, famines, droughts) Seasonal forecasting (weather patterns pandemics) Event tracking and alerts Loss adjustment, insurance payments Pre-positioning supplies Learn and Improve Consumption patterns Production methods Hat tip to Peter Williams for the diagram
- 7. i. Surface water flooding. ii. Groundwater flooding iii. River flooding. iv. Coastal and tidal flooding v. Reservoir or dam failure. vi. Burst water mains. vii. Sewer flooding. Where can a flood come from? Rapid Heavy Rain Catches you by surprise In Flood Zone 3, edge of Zone 2 Unlikely ! Unlikely, but on edge of zone Freeze?, groundworks? Drain Outside? What to plan for at Sheaf Street
- 8. Flood Zones: Leeds flood risk documents http://www.leeds.gov.uk/council/Pages/Strategic-flood-risk-documents.aspx Duke
- 10. Flood Zone 2 – Medium Probability 0.1% - 1% chance Definition This zone comprises land assessed as having between a 1 in 100 and 1 in 1,000 annual probability of river flooding (1% – 0.1%), or between a 1 in 200 and 1 in 1,000 annual probability of sea flooding (0.5% – 0.1%) in any year. Policy aims In this zone, developers and local authorities should seek opportunities to reduce the overall level of flood risk in the area through the layout and form of the development, and the appropriate application of sustainable drainage systems
- 11. Flood Zone 3a – High Probability >1% chance Definition This zone comprises land assessed as having a 1 in 100 or greater annual probability of river flooding (>1%), or a 1 in 200 or greater annual probability of flooding from the sea (>0.5%) in any year. Policy aims In this zone, developers and local authorities should seek opportunities to: reduce the overall level of flood risk in the area through the layout and form of the development and the appropriate application of sustainable drainage systems; relocate existing development to land in zones with a lower probability of flooding; and create space for flooding to occur by restoring functional floodplain and flood flow pathways and by identifying, allocating and safeguarding open space for flood storage.
- 13. Duke This is considered a low risk ( but map is useful)
- 14. City domains are interconnected So floods affect a lot of things! Communi- cations and IT Food storage and delivery Healthcare Ecosystem services (Social systems) Public safety Transport- ation Protective infra- structure Water, waste water Energy, fuel City “system of systems”
- 15. Note what is happening locally: 2016 http://www.leeds.gov.uk/residents/Pages/FloodAlleviationScheme.aspx Flood alleviation movable weir
- 16. Resilience Scorecard • Based on UN ISDR’s “Ten Essentials” of disaster management.
- 17. Where to get Live Flood Warnings https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/map
- 18. 0345 988 1188 This service sends you a direct message when flooding is expected and may affect your property. You can receive warnings by telephone, mobile, email, SMS text message or fax, whichever you prefer. You can also view flood warnings through the Environment Agency website: http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/flood/31618.aspx Or via Twitter: follow @EnvAgency Or on Facebook: www.facebook.com/FloodAlerts (England and Wales) http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=map&map=Warnings&zo om=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1404082800
- 19. http://apps.environment-agency.gov.uk/river-and-sea-levels/120699.aspx Action: Understand changing upstream water levels
- 20. Action: Understand changing upstream water levels
- 21. Another source of information http://maps.environment- agency.gov.uk/wiyby/wiybyController?x=357683&y=355134&scale=1&layerGroups=def ault&ep=map&textonly=off&lang=_e&topic=riverlevels#x=420574&y=432485&lg=1,&s cale=5
- 22. Location Link Gargrave https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8083 Snaygill https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8189 Stockbridge https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8199 Bingley https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8345 Saltaire https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8346 Kirstall Abbey https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8120 Armley https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8009 Crown Point https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8061 Fleet Weir https://flood-warning-information.service.gov.uk/station/8079 TWITTER: river/aire/flood https://twitter.com/search?q=river%20aire%20flood&src=typd&lang=en TWITTER # riveraireleeds https://twitter.com/RiverAireLeeds?lang=en GUAGEMAP http://www.gaugemap.co.uk/#!Detail/2005
- 23. https://fwd.environment- agency.gov.uk/app/olr/address?method=selectCustType&recipType=d37e26d5ac 1370cd00a02a8dd266a9c3 Action: Register with Flood Warnings Direct
- 24. Weather Radar… early warning of approaching storm + Get emails of rain in the upstream catchment http://forecast.io/#/f/53.7907,-1.5380
- 25. http://darkskyapp.com/ Set up an alert to tell you when rain is happening at critical times
- 26. 2. Analytics
- 27. Analytics: what does it mean to you?
- 28. • Significantly reduce financial losses, damage to property and business interruption; • Help compliance with regulatory requirements (for example, Occupier’s Liability Act 1984); • Reduce exposure to civil or criminal liability; • Enhance your company’s image and credibility with employees, customers, suppliers and the community; • Help fulfil your moral responsibility to protect employees, the community and the environment; • Help you to obtain insurance cover. WHY HAVE A FLOODRISK PLAN?
- 29. -1m from ground ( See Brewery Car Park)
- 30. 0m above ground level
- 31. 1m above ground level
- 32. Questions to be considered 1. How are employees family affected? 2. How do people communicate with you? 3. Who is available to responde? 4. Who are the decision makers & where are they 5. What preventitive maintenance is needed (e.g. drain outside) 6. What is the fuel supply? (do you have electicity generators?) 7. What about your supply chain –up and downstream 8. Many more to be added here…
- 33. Important Dynamics of floods to think about
- 34. According to a report prepared for Defra in 2007, repairing a house after a flood was estimated to cost between £10,000 and £50,000 depending on the flood depth. This will now have increased still further, owing to inflation*. What does it cost to fix?
- 36. Smart Response Specific actions: before, during and after an event
- 38. What can you do to: • Lessen the impact of the event • Reduce risk of injury/loss of life • Protect critical resources • Shorten time to recovery
- 39. The Flood Plan should clearly list actions needed on receipt of a flood warning, such as how to set up any temporary flood protection devices as well as giving a maintenance schedule to ensure correct operation of devices in the future. The plan should take account of the possibility of flood protection devices failing or their design being exceeded. What is the plan when a Flood Warning is issued? Action: Create A Flood Review Document (this is it) Action: On site ‘Walk around’ Discussing the Risks & actions Action: Create a Flood Plan Action: Install/Purchase any useful products Action: Communicate the plan Action: Test the plan
- 40. https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/410606/LIT_5 284.pdf Action: Fill in this Flood Plan template
- 44. Action: Install appropriate Flood Products http://thefloodcompany.co.uk/ https://www.google.co.uk/webhp?sourceid=chrome-instant&ion=1&espv=2&ie=UTF- 8#q=flood+protection+products+uk&tbm=shop http://www.flood- products.co.uk/hydrosack- flood-protection-p- 43288.html?gclid=CMmwnb7r0 MkCFWsJwwodGaUDqg
- 45. Action: Create Some local social cohesion ahead of time Invite Locals in the same situation: Council AECOM world experts are nearby Tetley Etc… Help them to help you
- 46. Leeds City Council In the event of flooding, you can contact the council for advice on 0113 222 4407 (Monday to Friday, 9am to 5pm). In an emergency or outside of these hours, contact: 0113 376 0499. How to report Flooding : http://www.leeds.gov.uk/docs/05%20Reporting%20flooding.pdf: Sandbag policy – try to plan for yourself, however some stock are available to request Contacts
- 47. Appendix
- 52. Armley In past few days rate was going down about 0.5m in 24 hours Crown Point How long before the river drops Looking at rate of earlier river level dropping at a few sites on the Aire after the rain stopped for a while. The rate is about 0.5m in 24hrs from 6:00pm to 6:00pm for Armley I would expect that the with record levels then the rate of reduction will be a quicker because runoff is quicker: Saltaire Crown Point going down at 0.5m in 12 hours, = 1m per hour
- 53. In Summary at Crown Point I would expect The river level to Drop by 1m per 24 hours for the next day or two (with no rain Monday & Tuesday) Then as levels are more normal I would expect the river levels to drop at 0.5m per 24 hours from around Wednesday if no rain. However More rain is predicted for Wednesday so it is likely to rise really quickly because the ground is saturated, the recent rate of rise has been 1m in 18 hours (it fills up quickly)