Captured By A Broken Market: Developing Smart Cities in South East Queensland
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The document discusses Australia's energy crisis as announced in March 2017 and how the country arrived at this point. It analyzes factors like policy disruption, an energy-only market model, and over-reliance on intermittent renewables that have driven inefficient capital investment. The market is seen as broken due to a lack of coordination between federal policy, state strategies, and energy market structures. Moving forward, the document advocates utilizing existing and new distributed energy resources more efficiently through an open access market that enables competing resources and promotes energy productivity over subsidized capital expenditure.
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Captured By A Broken Market: Developing Smart Cities in South East Queensland
- 1. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment Captured By A Broken Market Ian McLeod Engineers Australia: Developing Smart Cities in South East Queensland 11th May 2017
- 2. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 2 What Happened on the 8th March 2017?
- 3. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 3 What Happened on the 8th March 2017? The Australian Prime Minister, Malcolm Turnbull, announced that the east coast of Australia was facing an energy crisis with potential for electricity shortfalls in 2018/19.
- 4. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 4 How Did We Get Here? • A flat and dry continent • The constitution • Abundant energy resources – scarcity? • An energy market – 1998 • Policy disruption – Regulation, Standards, Targets, Technology • Technology – disruptor or enabler
- 5. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 5 Is the Market Broken?
- 6. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 6 Disruption: Policy Network & Market Energy Market Commences Climate Policy Disruption Network Policy Disruption
- 7. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment Federal Policy & Strategy Carbon Reduction • 5% off 2000 levels by 2020 • 25-28% off 2005 levels by 2030 Renewable Energy • 33,000 GWH by 2020 • Small Scale Renewable Energy Scheme • Large Scale Renewable Energy Scheme National Energy Productivity Pan • 40% increase by 2030 National Strategy On Energy Efficiency 50% by 2025 40% by 2025 50% by 2030 • States relying on National Grid for security to maximise intermittent renewables • South Australia and Tasmania relying on Victoria • Victoria will become net importer • Vertical disaggregation & renewable policies & subsidies and deterministic supply standards drive inefficient deployment of capital • Energy only market drives inefficient use of resources - Hydro Disruption: Policy The Market vs Policy vs Subsidies
- 8. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment Energy & Infrastructure productivity dropping Resource Underutilised
- 9. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 9 Investment & Energy Productivity? Today we have: • Fact vs Alternative Facts • News vs Fake News • Bad debt vs good debt The same is true for investment • Productive vs Non-productive • Duplicated • Shift & flight
- 10. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment Round 2: The Utility Scale & Battery Race Will it be a knock out ? • 35 Utility Scale Projects – 3300MW – Investment $7.4B currently committed or in progress in 2017 • 4100 jobs – Is this the right measure • Snowy Hydro Pumped Storage – 2000MW • Tassie pumped hydro • South Australia interventions – Gas Turbine, battery & Diesel • Batteries big and small. Push vs pull
- 11. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment We Are Unique • We must define the problem, the opportunities and objectives before determining the solution • Oz vs USA • Oz vs Germany
- 12. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 12 Technology – Disruptor or Enabler? Who said this? “I don’t think we should disrupt things unless that disruption is going to result in something fundamentally better for society. I’m not really a fan of disruption; I’m a fan of things being better.”
- 13. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 13 Who Said This? It Was Elon Musk @ EEI Conference in 2015
- 14. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment How Energy Infrastructure Can Help Drive Innovation What do these have in common and what is different?
- 15. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment How Energy Infrastructure Can Help Drive Innovation What is the Infrastructure? Assets more than just poles & wires
- 16. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment Size & …… Volume have increased Networked resources create opportunities • 29% of detached houses have solar – Queensland Highest in the world • Peak demand is around 2.4GW • Many batteries already – hot water storage • Non coincident Distributed Energy Resources (DER) of 1.7GW of which there is around – 1GW of distributed generation (bagasse) – 700MW of load under control tariffs (320,000 customers) How Energy Infrastructure Can Help Drive Innovation Being Connected
- 17. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment New Resources Existing Resources & Latent Value How Energy Infrastructure Can Help Drive Innovation New & Old
- 18. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment Penetration: % Dwellings with PV • Queensland highest penetration in the world • Initial growth fuelled by subsidies • Mandatory Feed In Tariffs • Lack of Smart Invertor Control Source: Australian PV Institute (APVI) Solar Map, funded by the Australian Renewable Energy Agency, accessed from pv-map.apvi.org.au on 22 July 2016. Installed PV Generation Capacity • 5.4 GW of capacity • Larger scale now accelerating • RET certificate price increasing • Crowding out other investment New Energy Technologies
- 19. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment • More resources or better utilisation? • We need to use efficiency & the lowest cost resources first • A market approach is required to ensure an affordable energy future • Connectivity, control, data, contracts and tariffs will be key attributes of the market enabling competing resources to be deployed • Open Access will lead to App Development Supply Storage Demand Market How Energy Infrastructure Can Help Drive Innovation Create The Market
- 20. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 20 Smart Cities What Are The Objectives? • Resilience • Security • Control • Environment • Differentiation/Brand • Affordability/Cost out • Source of funds • Intelligence
- 21. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment Data 21 Smart Cities Digital, Intelligence & Analytics Fused, Processed & Analytics Outcomes Services Human Resources Works Program Built Environment Condition Spatial Energy Assets Social CustomerNatural Environment Improved Risk Management & Insurance costs Reduced vegetation costs Improved regulatory outcomesReduced outages Increased network resilienceImproved customer service Community & Employee safety Reduced costs Increased returnExtend Asset Life Cycles
- 22. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment Smart Cities Energy Manager & Micro Grids 22DER* - Distributed Energy Resources – i.e. Solar & Battery Energy Manager Embedded Grid
- 23. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 23 Blue Sky Possibilities for Sustainable Energy Use • Design for success • Efficient Market – not half pregnant • Efficiency Standards • Control and right to control • Effective deployment of capital • Embedded and Micro Grids • Load following Supply
- 24. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 24 Blue Sky Possibilities for Sustainable Energy Use • Brain vs Brawn • Digital vs Shovel
- 25. Power Gas Water Renewables Environment 25 It’s An Exciting New World Thank You