1. Gas Development Master Plan
Overview of the GDMP Model
Capacity Building Workshop
Bali, 1-2 July 2013

2. 2
Presentation Outline
• Introducing components of the GDMP Model:
– Demand and Supply Scenarios (DASS)
– Transport Infrastructure Model (TIM)
• Demand and Supply Scenarios (DASS) overview:
– Objective and key questions
– Key outputs
• Transport Infrastructure Model (TIM) overview:
– Objective and key questions
– Key outputs
• Key Results from the GDMP Model

3. 3
Typical phases of a gas producing country
• Medium and long term planning perspective
• Economic cost of gas is (at least) current production cost +
component (depletion premium) to reflect long run cost of substitute
fuel (backstop fuel)

4. 4
Changing perspectives …
• “Looks
good”
• “OK so far”
• “Oh dear”
• “I hope we
made good
use of that
gas”

5. 5
The GDMP modelling framework
•2 key task areas
o … optimizing the expansion of gas supply and transmission
infrastructure in the medium to long term
o … policy framework for supporting long-term gas sector
development
•2 timeframes
o 20 years (2040) | 50 years (2070)
•2 methodologies
o Scenarios | Least cost optimisation
•2 models
o DASS | TIM

6. 6
Components of the GDMP Model
DASS TIM
Demand scenarios
Supply scenarios
Export scenarios
Price scenarios
Optimisation for
infrastructure
Unmet demand
Excess supply
Infrastructure costs
Adjusted export
Revenue calculation
Results
New infrastructure
to meet domestic
demand
Cost of new
infrastructure
Government
revenues

7. 7
Demand and Supply Scenarios (DASS) –
Overview
INPUT DATA
Supply input sheet
Demand input
sheet
Global parameter
sheet
CALCULATION
CONTROL
PANEL
Demand
calculation sheet
Supply calculation
sheet
OUTPUTS
Demand by region
and by sector
Annual
production by
region
TIM
Supply-demand
graph (initial)
SCENARIOS
Input from TIM
PSC terms input
sheet
Adjustments
sheet
Revenue
calculation sheet
Supply-demand
graph (adjusted)
Government
revenue
Price input sheet
Price calculation
sheet
Export input sheet

8. 8
Objective of DASS and key questions
Key issues: selecting parameters to simulate different demand
scenarios, different policy options, and different price scenarios.
Objective of DASS:
1. Estimate domestic demand, export, and supply projections up to 2070 based
on selected scenario parameters
2. Calculate estimated government revenue based on selected scenario and cost
of selected infrastructure (from TIM)
Key questions:
• What are the factors and how will they effect demand and export?
• How will price of gas (domestic and export) change over time?
• What are the policies that will effect demand?
• How are these policies effect demand?
• How will government revenue be effected by the different demand scenarios?
• How will the cost of infrastructure (from TIM) effect government revenue?

9. 9
Key outputs of DASS
Initial output projections
• Domestic demand projections for major industries, electricity
generation, domestic distribution (households and small commercial),
and transport by region
• Export projections based on existing contracted volumes
• Supply projections based on production volumes of each region
Adjusted outputs based on results from TIM
• Estimated government revenue based on selected demand and
supply scenario and cost of new infrastructure from TIM
• New demand and supply balance

10. 10
DASS initial outputs: demand and supply
projections

11. 11
Transport Infrastructure Model Overview
DASS inputs
INPUT DATA
Demand data
Transport costs used in
minimisation
CONTROL PANEL
RESULTS
Infrastructure cost and timing
requirements by region
SCENARIOS
Supply data
Export data
Connection Concepts
Run minimisation
Interregional LNG and pipeline
flows
S/D balances, exports, and
unmet demand by region

12. 12
Key issue for Gas Infrastructure Policy: supply centres removed from
major demand centres
Objective of TIM: identify set of least cost infrastructure options to
balance supply and demand across regions until 2040
Key questions
• What is the last cost infrastructure portfolio to balance regional supply and
demand?
• What are optimized interregional LNG and pipeline flows?
• What are the liquefaction, regasification and interregional pipeline capacity
requirements in each region?
• What is the volume of unmet demand/imports in each region?
• What is volume of excess supply, i.e. gas not consumed domestically or
exported?
• What is the cost of delivered gas in each region?
Objective of TIM and key questions

13. 13
Key outputs of TIM
Infrastructure planning
• Liquefaction, regasification and pipeline capacity needed to supply
gas into each region
• Optimized pipeline and LNG flows across regions
• Earliest year gas transport infrastructure in each region is needed
Export and production policy
• Level of unmet demand, i.e. domestic demand that cannot be
covered by domestic production
• Volume of excess production, i.e. scheduled production that is
neither exported nor domestically consumed
Investment requirements
• Total cost of infrastructure requirements to balance supply and
demand

14. 14
Output: Regional S/D balances, unmet
demand, exports and interregional flows

15. 15
Output: Interregional flows by connection
concept

16. 16
Output: Costs, capacity requirements and
throughputs

17. 17
Key results of the GDMP Model
Infrastructure planning
• List of infrastructure needed to meet domestic demand, earliest year
needed and cost of infrastructure
• Adjusted demand-supply balance
Government revenue
• Estimated government revenue based on selected demand and
supply scenario and cost of new infrastructure from TIM

18. 18
GDMP Model Key Results – list of infrastructure
plan
Infrastructure plan
Infrastructure/location Type Existing capacity
Additional capacity
needed Total Cost Unit cost
Bcf/y Bcf/y million US$ $/mcf
C. Java - W. Java PL Pipeline - 900 457 0.1
Eastern Kalimantan- C. Java PL Pipeline - 600 3,735 1.0
Riau islands Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant - 300 11,124 7.7
East Kalimantan Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant 1,000 - 14 0.0
Papua Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant 375 300 10,539 1.9
West Java Regasification Regasification Terminal 150 700 3,927 1.0
East Java and Bali Regasification Regasification Terminal - 900 4,882 1.7
E. Java- C. Java PL Pipeline - 80 264 3.1
Southern Moluccas Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant - 500 20,682 13.2
Riau-E. Kalimantan PL Pipeline - 400 2,654 3.3
Central Sulawesi Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant 100 10 412 1.9
Nad Liquefaction Liquefaction Plant 590 - 8 0.0
SSWJ I&II Pipeline 360 - 968 0.7
C. Sulawesi-South Sulawesi PL Pipeline - 30 432 45.2
Riau-Central Sumatra Pipeline - 1 485 14,696.0
Sumatra PL Pipeline 160 - 235 48,716
Which locations are
being connected by the
new infrastructure
What is the
connection types
If it is an existing
infrastructure, what is
the existing capacity What is the
additional
capacity
needed
What is the total cost
and unit cost to build the
additional capacity

19. 19
GDMP Model Key Results – new demand
supply balance
Grey area shows excess
supply from this region
After running TIM, excess
supply is now transferred
(purple bars) to other region(s)
TIM only runs to 2040
If transfers exceed
production, could mean that
this region imports gas and
then transfer to other
region(s)
Example from Central and South Sumatera

20. 20
GDMP Model Key Results –
Estimated government revenue and economic value
Discounted
costs, to 2050
Undiscounted costs, to
2070 – very large unmet
demand (depends on
scenario)