Die Folien aller Referenten in einem Slidedeck:
0. Einleitung - Peter Schnürer
1. Wie Crypto-Finance die Welt zu einem besseren Ort macht - Johann Gevers
2. Autonom lernende und intelligente Systeme heute und ihre Bedeutung für den Finanzsektor - Sascha Corti
3. Sind DAO's die besseren Unternehmen? Potenzial und Herausforderungen von dezentralen Organisationen auf der Blockchain - Dr. Mathias Bucher
4. Finanzplatz LI - Innovations-Clubs, LVC und Regulierungslabor in der Praxis. - Dr. Thomas Dünser
5. FYP - Ein Tool zur Prognose der individuellen Pensionshöhe - Prof. Dr. Michael Hanke
20. Two Ways to Interact
voluntary > moral
violent > immoral
voluntary interactions create value
violent interactions destroy value
business = voluntary trade > creates value = moral
How do we increase voluntary trade
and thereby create more value in our world?
21. We need a version 2.0
of the financial system.
— Andrew Lo, Financial Times, 27 August 2012
22. The financial system is at the epicenter
of a fundamental transformation that is
radically changing geopolitics.
28. How do we build wealth?
1. Greater security of property
2. Lower transaction costs
3. Larger economic networks
⇒ Greater division of labor and specialization
⇒ Higher productivity
⇒ Rising wealth creation and standard of living
29. 1. Secure Property Rights
Development is very complex. But if you do not
have an order that tells you who owns what, none
of the rest works.
— Hernando de Soto
Two-thirds of the world’s population — four
billion people — are locked out of the capitalist
system.
30. 2. Efficient Trade
A mere 0.1% reduction in transaction costs
quadruples a country’s wealth
— the difference between Argentina
and Switzerland.
Low transaction costs are the fundamental
driver of economic growth.
31. 0–25% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
Percent of total adult population that do not use
formal financial services
Estimates
used to calculate
regional averages
0–25% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
Percent of total adult population that do not use
formal financial services
Estimates
used to calculate
regional averages
Fully 2.5 billion of the world’s adults
don’t use formal banks or semiformal
Counting the world’s unbanked
Alberto Chaia, Tony Goland, and Robert Schiff
Alberto Chaia is a
The microfinance movement, for
example, has long helped expand
savings products, about 800 million live
on less than $5 a day. Large unserved
choices, lower-income consumers will
benefit from credit, savings, insurance,
Sub-Saharan Africa
326 million adults
Middle East
136 million adults
Latin America
250 million adults
East Asia,
Southeast Asia
876 million adults
South Asia
612 million adults
Central Asia & Eastern Europe
193 million adults
High-income OECD countries
60 million adults
(Members of Organisation for Economic
Co-operation and Development)
Percentage of total adult population who do not use formal or
semiformal financial services
80%
67%
65%
49%
59%
58%
8%
Total
2,455 million adults
53%
0–25% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
Percent of total adult population that do not use
formal financial services
Estimates
used to calculate
regional averages0–25% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
Percent of total adult population that do not use
formal financial services
Estimates
used to calculate
regional averages% 26–50% 51–75% 76–100%
f total adult population that do not use
ancial services
Estimates
used to calculate
regional averages
% 51–75% 76–100%
population that do not use
es
Estimates
used to calculate
regional averages
Sub-Saharan Africa
Middle East
East Asia
South Asia
Adults who use formal or semiformal financial services,
millions of adults
332 283
<$5/day >$5/day
396 45
56 25
4526
Yet serving adults who live
on less than $5 a day is
not only possible at scale—
to a large degree, it is
already happening.
The unbanked are not unservable
76–100%
do not use
Estimates
used to calculate
regional averages
Adjusted for purchasing-power parity
3. Economic Network Size
40. CryptoFinance:
The Main Innovation
Peer-to-peer transactions
in a decentralized network
using bearer instruments
that require no trust
between the parties
nor in any third party
— BIS report, November 2015
41. The Key Innovation in Cryptofinance:
Digital Bearer Instruments
A bearer instrument is a contract
that entitles the holder to ownership
of the property described in the contract.
No ownership information is specified
in the instrument itself — whoever holds the instrument
is the owner of the property.
e.g. physical cash or digital tokens
42. The Big Story
The invention of digital bearer instruments enables the
creation of true digital wallets
— making traditional accounts unnecessary.
=> Fundamental shift
from centralized, provider-centric, account-based systems
to decentralized, user-centric, wallet-based systems
This changes everything.
44. Users transact directly:
=> real-time value transfer
=> peer-to-peer exchange of value
- without an intermediary
- without accounts
- without liabilities
> no reconciliation
> no clearing
> no settlement
No settlement required
Payment = Settlement
45. The digitization of bearer instruments enables value to
flow instantly and at negligible cost via the internet
Payment Message
Record
Process
Reconcile
Clear
Settle
Value Transfer
Instant Transfer
via Digital Bearer Instruments
TODAY TOMORROW
Debts <> Accounts Asset tokens <> Wallets
46. True Digital Wallets
Financial services providers
offer advanced financial services
based on digital tokens
stored in true digital wallets
controlled by users
47. The role of central banks
What would happen if we combined
the best attributes of cryptofinance platforms
with the features of established national currencies
under the sponsorship of a central bank?
— Deloitte, July 2015
48. Digital Legal Tender
Central banks issue digital legal tender
101001010111010101010
101010100000111010101
101010101011000000010101011010
101010101010101001111
1010101010101111111000001011
1011010101011100001
49. The Solution
Central banks issue national currencies on an
open cryptofinance platform — digital legal tender
> Financial services operators can leverage their niche,
while benefiting from a unified global system
50. Central Bank Digital Currency
Bank of England sees big benefits:
• 3% boost to GDP
• New tool for central banks to
manage business cycles
• Greater control of interest rates for
consumers
• Reduction in systemic risk due to
fractional reserve banking
McKinsey estimates:
• $3.7 trillion GDP boost to emerging economies in decade
• $110 billion per year reduced leakage in public spending and tax collection
• $400 billion per year cost savings for financial services providers
52. Society — Structure and Process
1. Rules of the Game
(framework of freedom)
> politics / law
w social consensus
2. The Game
(production of prosperity)
> economics, entrepreneurship
w individual contracts
53. The CryptoFinance Ecosystem
§ probabilistic consensus systems (e.g. Bitcoin)
ü community standards and infrastructure
x slow, expensive, limited scalability, public
> secure voting systems, property registries,
uncensorable data, inflation-proof currencies, etc.
§ deterministic contract systems (e.g. Monetas)
ü trading parties
ü fast, cheap, unlimited scalability, private
> secure, efficient retail transactions, micropayments,
resource allocation, internet of things, etc.
56. Best of both worlds
Store assets securely in consensus systems
> asset layer
Trade assets efficiently in contract systems
> transaction layer
57. <$1
$1-5
>$5
The Transaction Business
Where is the volume?
In Kenya, 80% of all transactions are less than $5
In Switzerland, the average transaction size is $27
In the internet of things, transactions will be fractions of a cent
60. The Hidden Cost of Physical Cash
Developed countries: 1–2% of GDP
Developing countries: 5–7% of GDP
Billions of people are un(der)banked — no access to
formal financial services (savings products, insurance, etc.)
The unbanked lose 15–25% of their savings every year
=> Why save if the savings will be lost anyway?
=> The unbanked stay poor
61. Monetas is the first transaction platform
that can compete with cash:
ü Requires no bank account
ü Instant settlement
ü Cheaper than cash
And it offers features cash cannot match:
ü Security
ü Smart contracts
ü Global payments and trade
62. What is a transaction?
A transaction is a legal agreement
> a contract
Transaction systems are
contracting systems.
63. Monetas has built a universal contracting platform.
A universal platform for global commerce.
64. Standardized Financial Contracts
Major breakthrough
§ 5 fundamental building blocks
§ 32 standard contracts cover 99.99% of all use cases
Dramatic simplification, standardization, risk reduction,
and efficiency gains across the financial system
ü Being built into the Monetas platform
65. Bank in a Box
SoftwareHardware
Smart contracts
Digital wallets
67. Monetas
A universal platform for global commerce
Open, standards-based:
§ All financial instruments, all national and digital currencies
§ Interoperable across instruments, platforms, and borders
Globally scalable, high performance:
§ Processes entire world’s transactions (1 million per second) in
real time on low-cost distributed server infrastructure
68. The world’s global distribution platform:
The mobile phone
Cryptographically secure, decentralized
communication and trading systems
— delivered globally via the mobile phone —
become the enabler of
individual freedom and prosperity.
69.
70.
71. Radical Transformation of
Financial systems
Communications systems
Production systems
Governments and Legal systems
Explosion of Wealth creation
73. The Big Trend
From Fragmented Local Systems
to Integrated Global Systems
> The Rise of Global Platforms
74. What is killing financial services today?
Compliance – the production of trust – is
unreasonably costly because of:
1. Dated technology
2. Unwise regulation
77. Reduce the cost of
physical cash
Maintain clear
oversight
Efficiently manage
monetary policy
Expand financial
inclusion
Eliminate
counterfeiting risk
Create a fully
interoperable
economy
The Opportunity for Central Banks
78. Benefits for commercial banks
§ Offer true digital wallets with advanced functionality
§ Expand market coverage without costly branch networks
§ Run new and legacy platforms in parallel > interoperable
§ Develop unique products and services on open platform
§ Improve security and privacy
§ Improve efficiency, automation, and scalability
§ Reduce compliance costs and liability
§ Reduce financial, operational, and regulatory risks
79. The fragmented digital finance ecosystem
and the threat from Global Tech Giants
Apple Pay, Google Wallet, PayPal, etc.:
1. are merely wrappers for legacy systems
2. take over the customer relationship
3. leave banks with the cost of legacy systems
=> not the solution
80. The Opportunity for the Financial Industry
Cryptofinance technologies solve critical problems
and enable financial institutions to refocus on their
core strengths:
§ Trusted financial partner
§ Integrated financial services
Leapfrog expensive brick-and-mortar infrastructure
and reach billions of new customers.
81. The Internet of Things (IoT)
§ In 2008, there were already more "things" connected to the internet
than people.
§ By 2020, there will be 50 billion things connected,
with USD 19 trillion in profits and cost savings over the next decade.
§ The convergence of machines, data, and analytics will become a
USD 200 billion industry over the next three years.
— General Electric (GE)
82. The Internet of Things is still missing a
critical enabling technology
desert before rain desert after rain
83. The Internet of Things needs:
An extremely fast, extremely efficient,
globally scalable financial transaction platform
to enable resource allocation for peer-to-peer
technologies
=>
85. Digital Finance Compliance Association
(DFCA)
A consortium of cryptofinance companies
working to create a friendly regulatory environment
for cryptofinance,
thereby enabling Switzerland to reinvent itself as
the financial center of the future
87. The Purpose of Regulation
1. To prevent harm to persons
and their property
2. To foster prosperity.
88. The Limits of Regulation
Good people don’t need laws.
Bad people find a way around laws.
– Plato
When regulations are unreasonable,
we drive people into the black market
– with highly destructive consequences for
the economy, the rule of law, and social integrity.
89. The Costs of Regulation
FATCA is estimated to raise less than USD 10 billion
over the next ten years,
but the compliance costs and the loss of foreign
capital investment resulting from the law will likely
cost several orders of magnitude more than the
expected revenue.
This is economic madness.
91. Proposed Regulatory Framework
for CryptoFinance
Digital technologies enable more effective and more efficient regulation:
§ Transparency > all digital transactions leave a digital trail
§ Accountability > identify transaction parties via behavioral identity
§ Privacy > enabled by default (presumption of innocence)
> lifted for bad actors (targeted investigation)
§ Innovation > regulate criminal actions (harms to persons or property)
— not persons, entities, structures, processes, or technologies
§ Efficiency > digital compliance measures can be efficiently automated.
92. The Age of CryptoFinance
A new era in human social evolution
The Technology of Trust
The transformation
of our world
93. A new generation of visionary
entrepreneurs is building
Society 3.0
Join Us.
94. The world’s most advanced transaction platform
Johann Gevers, Founder and CEO
johann.gevers@monetas.net
96. Intelligent Software
and the Implications for Banking
Sascha Corti
Technical Evangelist, Microsoft Switzerland
sascha.corti@microsoft.com| techpreacher.corti.com| @techpreacher
98. “Software is eating
the World”
Marc Lowell Andreessen
Published in the Wall Street Journal, 2011
“The Cloud is
eating Software”
Joseph Sirosh
The Future of Analytics Conference, 2015
105. Data Creation Data Ingestion Storage Analytics Presentation & Action
Event Hub SQL Database
Machine
Learning
App Service
IoT Hub
Table/Blob
Storage
Stream
Analytics
Power BI
Service Bus DocumentDB HDInsight
Notification
Hubs
External Data
Sources
3rd party
Databases
Data Factory Mobile Services
Data Lake BizTalk Services
{ }
108. Best of Microsoft
1999 2004 2005 2008 2010 2012 2014
Junk Email
Filtering
Search
Engine built
with ML
Enable Data
Mining of
DBs
Traffic
Prediction
Service
using ML
Understand
User’s
Gestures
Realtime
Speech-to-
Speech
Translation
Azure ML
Launches
110. Class Outlook Temp Wind
Play Sunny Low Yes
No Play Sunny High Yes
No Play Sunny High No
Play Overcast Low Yes
Play Overcast High No
Play Overcast Low No
No Play Rainy Low Yes
Play Rainy Low No
? Sunny Low No
Outlook
Temp WindTrue
True False True False
Machine
Learning
113. Model as a
Web Service
Classic and New
Machine Learning Studio
ML STUDIO
Data Science / Analytics Business
114.
115. The Gallery contains many examples specific to the banking industry that can serve
as models for the machine learning solutions you’re developing. These examples
include predicting credit risk, monitoring for online fraud, and anticipating
economic factors that can affect your customers and your business.
Democratizing
Artificial Intelligence
118. Event Hubs
Stream Analytics
Machine Learning
Storage
SQL database
HDInsight
Power BI
• Analytics for everyone, even non-data experts
• Your whole business on one dashboard
• Create stunning, interactive reports
• Drive consistent analysis across your org
• Embed visuals in your applications
• Get real-time alerts when things change
119.
120.
121. Here are some of the things I
can help you with…
Cortana in Windows 10
Public reference data answers
“How far is it from Los Angeles to San Francisco?”
Event predictions
“Who do you think is going to win the Germany Italy game?”
Flight status, traffic conditions, changes in weather, …
Setting reminders, scheduling meetings, getting directions, …
Cortana for Consumers
122. Here are some of the things I
can help you with…
With the Cortana Analytics Suite
Answers from organizational data in Power BI
“What were our biggest deals that closed last month?”
Integration with prediction solutions
“Which of our customers are most likely to churn in the next
quarter?”
Monitoring KPIs and preemptive alerting
“Alert me if this customer ever has a 90% chance of churn in the
next 30 days”
Line of business process integration
Assistance with expense report submission on-time within policy
Cortana for the Enterprise
129. Analyzes unstructured text.
Sentiment analysis
How do your customers feel
about your brand or products?
Key phrase extraction
What are your customers
talking about?
Interactive experience
130. Understand what Users are
Saying
• Determines Intent
• Detects Entities
Seamless Integration with
Speech Recognition
Learns over Time
Use pre-built, World Class
Models from Bing and
Cortana
Intent: TextToSpeech
Content: NewsHeadlines
Read the
headlines
Play
yesterday’s
Daily Show
Intent: PauseDevice
DateTime.duration: 5 Min
Pause for
5 minutes
Intent: PlayEpisode
Content: Daily Show
DateTime.date: T-1 Day
Language
Understanding
Intelligent Service
131. At Peak
1’600 Cores, 5.6 TB RAM
Over 2000 Images per Second uploaded
75
38
13
82 Million Unique Users
565 Million Images uploaded
1 Developer, 0 Downtime
… to reach 50 Mio users:
135. Bots:
• Purpose built Services
• Transactional in Nature
• Need to know Information &
Context for specific Task
Completion only
Agents:
• Personal Digital Assistant
• Knows your Context and works on
your behalf
• Holds your state
• Knows your Personal Information like
Interests Calendar, etc.
• Can get help from relevant Bots
141. Cloud Computing, Machine Learning and Big Data are
moving Business Decisions from Reactive to Predictive.
Cognitive Computing allows Systems to Understand the
Users Sentiments, Emotions and Intents.
Consumer’s use of Technology is Shifting.
Digital Assistants and Bots are the Next Generation UX.
144. Learn about Cortana Intelligence
https://azure.microsoft.com/en-us/blog/tag/cortana-analytics-suite/
https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/cloud-platform/cortana-intelligence-suite
Get Training
https://channel9.msdn.com/Events/Cortana-Analytics-Suite
http://aka.ms/CortanaMVA
146. Bot Framework Home Page
https://dev.botframework.com/
Bot Builder SDK on GitHub
https://github.com/Microsoft/BotBuilder
Bot Framework Blog
https://blog.botframework.com/
//Build Reaction - Cortana and the Bot Framework
https://channel9.msdn.com/Blogs/raw-tech/Build-Reaction-Cortana-and-the-Bot-Framework
Cloud Cover Ep. 206: Bot Framework with Mike Hall
https://channel9.msdn.com/Shows/Cloud+Cover/Episode-206-Bot-Framework-with-Mike-Hall
147. Building a Conversational Bot: From 0 to 60
https://channel9.msdn.com/Events/Build/2016/B821
Microsoft Cognitive Services: Give Your Apps a
Human Side
https://channel9.msdn.com/Events/Build/2016/B878
Microsoft Cognitive Services: Build smarter and
more engaging experiences
https://channel9.msdn.com/Events/Build/2016/B855
148. Personal Assistants: The New Context-Aware Digital
Runtime
https://channel9.msdn.com/Events/Build/2016/T620
Cortana: Learn How Cortana's New Capabilities can
Proactively Drive User Engagement with Your Apps
https://channel9.msdn.com/Events/Build/2016/B834
Cortana Futures: Step-by-step on How to Teach
Cortana to Proactively Engage with Your App
https://channel9.msdn.com/Events/Build/2016/B833
150. DAOs - the better companies?
Challenges and Potential of Decentralized Autonomous Organizations
in the Financial Sector
Dr. Mathias Bucher – Diamond Coin
Vaduz, Liechtenstein – October 27, 2016
176. Slide
Reflections about System Governance
27, 31/10/2016
Align long-term incentives
of Stakeholders and
Shareholders
Protect system from
external pressure
No unilateral changes by
system admin must be
allowed
Both token holders and
administrator need to be part of
decision process, and economic
upside
Protect system from
internal collusion
Checks and balances in DAO
required
181. Slide
Management of the Physical Chain
32, 31/10/2016
Provenance Certification Transport Storage
Tracking
Insurance
182. Slide
Legal / regulatory pitfalls
33, 31/10/2016
Disclaimer: the below is no legal advice, consult your lawyer ;-)
Digital currencies/ Dapp tokens are less likely to be treated as securities if:
Token is purchased for use-value
rather than profit expectation
Token is purchased after
application/ system is already up-
and-running
Token value is dependent on the
purchaser’s own effort and/or
the efforts of a large number of
unaffiliated others
Avoid “Initial Coin Offering”
Avoid “Profit Sharing”
Avoid becoming a
“Centralized Authority”
189. Innovations-Clubs
• Verbesserung der Rahmenbedingungen, damit
neue Wertschöpfung entsteht?
• Wie erhalten wir wirklich neue Ideen?
5
Innovationsprozess am Finanzplatz
191. Innovations-Clubs - Beispiele
• Digital Onboarding
• Englisch-Übersetzung der wichtigen Gesetze
• Abbau von Hindernissen im Marktzugang
• Doppelbesteuerungsabkommen
7
192. Innovations-Clubs - Status
• Rund 30 Innovations-Clubs
sind registriert
• Sehr unterschiedliche
Themenbereiche
• Projektstatus
• 17% erfolgreich abgeschlossen
• 4% nicht weitergeführt
• 74% in Arbeit
8
193. Innovations-Clubs - Fazit
Erkenntnisse:
• Bottom-up Ansatz bewährt sich: Viele neue Ideen
• Ressourcensituation Innovations-Clubs
• Ressourcenaufwand seitens Regierung / Verwaltung
Fazit:
• IC sind Bestandteil des Innovationsprozesses am Finanzplatz
• Faktor für Standortattraktivität
9
194. Liechtenstein Venture Cooperative LVC
10
LVC
(Fairer und rechtssicherer
Umgang mit Ideen,
Arbeitsleistung
und Finanzierung)
Investoren
Finanzierung
Kommerzielle
Unternehmung
(AG, GmbH, etc.)
Erfolgreiche Innovation
Markteintritt
195. LVC: Komponenten
11
Liechtenstein Venture Cooperative LVC
Rechtsform:
Kleine
Genossenschaft
Kostenlose
Vorlagen
für Gründungs-
dokumente
LVC-
Code of Conduct
Referenz für faire
Beteiligung
196. LVC Code of Conduct
Modell für faire Beteiligungen
12
Schutz des
«Innovators»
Berücksichtigung
der Risiken
der frühen Phasen
Schutz der
Investitionen
der späteren Phasen
50% + 100 MGP
Basisanteil
Risiko-
multiplikatoren
pro Phase
«participating
liquidation
preference»
Referenzmodell / freiwillig
Vorlage Gründungsdokumente
LVC Beitragsrechner
200. Use case 1: Vorteile LVC
• Höhere Rechtssicherheit für alle Beteiligten
• Höhere Umsetzungschancen durch Kooperation
• Viele kleine Leistungen ergeben auch Fortschritte
• Geringer Gründungsaufwand
• Skalierbarkeit
• Flexibilität
16
202. Use case 2: Vorteile der LVC
• Geringe Kosten für Strukturierung der Zusammenarbeit
• Flexible Gestaltungsmöglichkeiten (Anteile, Nutzungsrechte)
• Kapselung des geistigen Eigentums
• Skalierbarkeit
• Flexibilität
18
203. Use case 3: Kanal für radikale
Innovation
19
LVC
204. Use case 3: Vorteile der LVC
• Offener Kanal für «disruptive» Ideen
• Motivation der Mitarbeiter (inkl. Partizipation)
• Flexible Gestaltungsmöglichkeiten (Nutzung Know-how,
Infrastruktur als Investment)
• Flexibilität in der Verwertung
20
205. LVC: Erfahrungen
Erfahrungen:
• Gründungsdokumente über 150 mal verteilt oder geladen
• Resonanz sehr positiv, grosse Erleichterung für Gründer
• Unbekanntes Vehikel für Investoren
• Code of Conduct wird meistens verwendet und ermutigt
Erfinder, ihre Idee zu teilen
21
206. LVC: Fazit
Fazit:
• Erleichtert die Entwicklung einer Idee
• Motiviert Personen mit Ideen, diese zu teilen und zu
entwickeln
Zukunft:
• Erweiterung des Anwendungsfelds der LVC für die
Markteintrittsphase
• Verstärkte Information von internationalen Investoren
22
207. Regulierungslabor
• Expertengruppe in der FMA für innovative Geschäftsmodelle
und Fin-Tech
• Aktive Begleitung im Bewilligungsverfahren
• Fachliche Diskussion über Regulierungstrends
• Impulse für Verbesserung der Rahmenbedingungen
23
209. Regulierungslabor: Erfahrungen
• Sehr positive Resonanz
• Prozess bewährt sich
• Gute Plattform zur Grundlagendiskussion
• Wird in der Fin-Tech Szene wahrgenommen
• Faktor der Standortattraktivität für Fin-Tech
25
210. SEED X Liechtenstein
• Seed Accelerator
• Finanzierung und Coaching in der Seed-Phase
• Investment Management durch VC - Experten
26
211. Nutzungsmöglichkeiten SEED X
• Aufbau eines neuen Geschäftsmodells durch Mitarbeiter
• Innovationskanal für Banken (professionelles Coaching, Co-
Finanzierung)
27
212. Einladung
Nutzen Sie die Möglichkeiten,
• zur Unterstützung Ihres Innovationsprozesses
• zur Verbesserung der Rahmenbedingungen
• zur Steigerung der wirtschaftlichen Stärke und Attraktivität
unseres Finanzplatzes
28
214. FYP (Forecast Your Pension)
Prognose und Planung der eigenen Pension
Universität Liechtenstein
Innovationstag Digital Banking Liechtenstein
2016
Prof. Dr. Michael Hanke
Ass. Prof. Dr. Martin Angerer
27.10.2016
217. Motivation
• Altersarmut wird eine der grössten Herausforderungen
in den kommenden Jahrzehnten
– Nach eurostat sind 11,4% der Männer und 15,6% der
Frauen in der EU altersarmutgefährdet
• Die „Financial Literacy“ im Bereich Pensionsvorsorge ist
gering
– Dies gilt für die Bevölkerung aber auch für Berater!
• Es besteht eine Vermeidungshaltung dem Thema
gegenüber
– Mit Hilfe eines Tools überbrückt man Berührungsängste
– Tabuthemen wie Ehegattentod können selbständig
analysiert werden
3
222. Risiko: Unterschätzen der Inflation
8
Fr.-
Fr.100'000.00
Fr.200'000.00
Fr.300'000.00
Fr.400'000.00
Fr.500'000.00
Fr.600'000.00
Fr.700'000.00
Fr.800'000.00
30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Preisentwicklungen für verschiedene Inflationsniveaus 30 Jahre vor
Pensionsantritt
7%
5%
3%
1%
Jahre bis
Pensions-
antritt
Anfangskosten:
CHF 100.000
Der Zinseszinseffekt wirkt umso stärker,
je höher die Inflationsraten und je länger der Zeitraum.
223. Freiwillige Vorsorge passiert oft zu spät
9
Fr.10'000.00
Fr.15'000.00
Fr.20'000.00
Fr.25'000.00
Fr.30'000.00
Fr.35'000.00
Fr.40'000.00
Fr.45'000.00
50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0
Anlage von CHF 10.000 bis zum Pensionsantritt
Anlage für 50 Jahre
Anlage für 40 Jahre
Anlage für 30 Jahre
Anlage für 20 Jahre
Anlage für 10 Jahre
Jahre vor
Pensionsantritt
Zinssatz
3%
224. Der Anlageerfolg ist risikobehaftet
10
Erwartete Rendite 1%, Risiko 0,03 Erwartete Rendite 2%, Risiko 0,08
225. Diversifikation in der Vorsorge
• Aufteilen von laufenden und einmaligen
Sparbeiträgen auf unterschiedliche Anlageformen!
– z.B. Ansparen in der 2. Säule oder Investieren und
Versichern in der 3. Säule (bspw. mit Versicherungen,
Aktien, Anleihen, Fonds, Immobilien).
• Nutzen von Handlungsfreiräumen in der zweiten
und dritten Säule, um die Vorsorge an die
individuelle Situation anzupassen.
• Diversifikation sollte sich dabei nicht auf Produkte
beschränken, sondern verschiedene Institutionen
oder Finanzdienstleister einschliessen.
11
226. Langlebigkeitsrisiko
12
Ist das finanzielle Risiko aufgrund einer langen Lebenszeit
• Kritisch in den Vorsorgebereichen die nicht (oder nur teilweise)
inflationsangepasst sind und/oder eine endliche Laufzeit haben
• Ausgaben können im Alter teilweise weit schneller wachsen als
die Inflation
• Erhöhter finanzieller Aufwand aufgrund medizinischer
Bedürfnisse
• Höhere Kosten im Wohnbereich (Adaptierung von
Wohnraum, Heimkosten, etc.)
• Kann über zusätzliche (Versicherungs-)Produkte abgedeckt
werden.
227. Andere Risiken
• Persönliche wirtschaftliche Risiken
– Teilweiser oder kompletter Arbeitsplatzverlust,
unvorhergesehene Sonderbelastungen
– Absicherbar über Arbeitslosenversicherung u.ä.
• Persönliche gesundheitliche Risiken
– Krankheit, Berufs- und Erwerbsunfähigkeit
– Über Versicherungen absicherbar, bspw.
Berufsunfähigkeitsversicherung, ist aber kostenintensiv
• Steuerliche Risiken
– Veränderungen im Steuersystem
– Kaum absicherbares Risiko
• Institutionelle Risiken
– Veränderungen in staatlichen Vorsorgesystemen
– Kaum absicherbares Risiko, bedingt über Diversifikation
reduzierbar
13
229. Was können gute bestehende Pensionsrechner?
• Berechnen der Pension aus staatlichen
Systemen
• Berechnen einfacher Vorsorgeprodukte
• Darstellung nominaler und realer Werte
• Adjustierung von vorzeitiger oder späterer
Pensionierung
• Miteinbezug von Gehaltssteigerungen
• Errechnen einer Pensionslücke
Für Liechtenstein ist nicht einmal ein „guter“
Rechner vorhanden!
15
230. Was bestehende Rechner nicht können…
… und das FYP Tool schon kann
• Blickwinkel „Vorsorgeeinheit Familie“ einnehmen
• Kombination der drei Vorsorgesäulen (staatlich,
betrieblich, privat)
• Integration der privaten Säule
• User-basierte Änderungen an den Annahmen (bspw.
Gehaltssteigerung)
• Einbezug von Steuern
• Einbezug von (teilweisem) Kapitalbezug
• Prognose von Werten x Jahre nach dem Pensionsantritt
16
231. Was bestehende Rechner nicht können…
… und das FYP Tool schon bald kann
• Einbezug geplanter Erwerbsunterbrüche
• Prognose von Werten x Jahre nach dem Pensionsantritt
• Einbezug von Ehegattentod
• Einbezug von zu erhaltendem Erbvermögen
• Individualisierter Lebensstil (Konsumausgaben)
• Integration ökonomischer Modelle zur Schätzung
makroökonomischer Variablen (bspw. Inflation)
17
233. Benötigte Daten
Individuelle Daten müssen selbst ausgefüllt
werden
• Allgemeine Daten
• Informationen über den aktuellen Versicherungsstand
bei
– AHV
– Betriebliche Vorsorge
– Diese Daten können über eine Anfrage leicht erhoben
werden
• Private Vorsorge
• Einkommensverhältnisse
• Vermögensverhältnisse
19
234. Profimodus
Verändern der Berechnungsannahmen
• Inflation
• Inflationsanpassungen
• Gehaltswachstum
• Anlageerfolg der zweiten Säule
• Rendite der dritten Säule
• Umwandlungsfaktoren
• Erwerbsunterbrüche
20
235. Ausgangssituation: 33 Jahre alt, 15% Vorsorge, 25 Jahre 3. Säule
21
0.00
20000.00
40000.00
60000.00
80000.00
100000.00
120000.00
140000.00
Heutige
Ausgaben
Ausgaben
Pensionsantritt
Vorsorge Ausgaben 15
Jahre nach PA
Vorsorge
Übersicht Ausgaben und Vorsorge
Verfügbares Eigenkapital
Säule 3
Säule 2
ALV - NBU - KK
Säule 1
Sonstiges
Unterhaltung
Kommunikation
Transport
Gesundheit
Hausrat
Wohnen/Energie
Bekleidung/Schuhe
Restaurant/Hotel
Alkohol/Tabak
Essen/Trinken
Steuer
236. 100% Vorsorge, 25 Jahre 3. Säule
22
0.00
20000.00
40000.00
60000.00
80000.00
100000.00
120000.00
140000.00
Heutige
Ausgaben
Ausgaben
Pensionsantritt
Vorsorge Ausgaben 15
Jahre nach PA
Vorsorge
Übersicht Ausgaben und Vorsorge
Verfügbares Eigenkapital
Säule 3
Säule 2
ALV - NBU - KK
Säule 1
Sonstiges
Unterhaltung
Kommunikation
Transport
Gesundheit
Hausrat
Wohnen/Energie
Bekleidung/Schuhe
Restaurant/Hotel
Alkohol/Tabak
Essen/Trinken
Steuer
242. Vielen Dank für Ihre Aufmerksamkeit!
28
Prof. Dr. Michael Hanke Ass. Prof. Dr. Martin Angerer
Projekt „Altersvorsorge in Liechtenstein“ EU-Projekt „Pensions in Europe“