Can You Profitably Time an Investment Cycle?

CAN YOU PROFITABLY
TIME AN INVESTMENT
CYCLE?
By www.ProfitableInvestingTips.com

http://profitableinvestingtips.com/bond-investing/can-you-profitably-time-an-investment-cycle
Profitable investing comes from picking
the right asset classes to invest in and
handling your investments in such a way as
to avoid losing money, instead of gaining
profits.

The value of an investment comes from its
expected future returns.

This expected future ROI is what intrinsic
value is based on.

And, as the economy rises and falls, so do
the value of investments.

What investors are willing to pay for an
investment rises and falls with market
sentiment.

Thus the economy and the perceptions of
other investors help drive an investment
cycle.

The best time to invest is at the start of the
investment cycle and the best time,
obviously, to take profits is before the end.

But, how can you profitably time and
investment cycle?

Can You Profitably Time an
Investment Cycle: The 4
Phases

An investment cycle has four parts:

•Accumulation
•Mark-up
•Distribution
•Mark-Down

Accumulation

The accumulation part is in the late stages
of a substantial market correction or crash.

Many investors are throwing in the towel.
But, this is when the smart money enters or
re-enters the stock, bond, and real estate
markets.

Can you profitably time an investment cycle
by purchasing at this time?

The key to success at this point is to be
sure that the market has bottomed out.

At this time competent intrinsic value
calculations will indicate what investments
to buy.

Mark-up

The start of the mark-phase of the
investment cycle is when many investors
get confused.

Unemployment is worsening but many
stocks are going up in price.

This is because the market discounts what it
believes will happen.

The prices of stocks and other investments
have already bottomed out.

Smart investors are cherry picking the best
opportunities and starting to see gains.

The mark-up phase becomes self-
perpetuating as more and more investors
re-enter the market and prices get bid up
across the board.

This is when the rising tide raises all ships.
Unfortunately, late-entering investors expect
to see the same profits continue and they
bid up prices beyond what fundamentals will
support.

Can you profitably time an investment cycle
at this point?

Again, you should rely on intrinsic value, as
some companies will still be making money
and are good long term investments, while
others will be due for a fall.

Distribution

The distribution phase of the investment
cycle is when the folks who bought in phase
one and early in phase two start to take
their profits.

There are as more sellers than buyers.
Prices become volatile.

Those who successfully anticipate the
swings of the market will profit and those
who do not will sustain losses.

Can you successfully time an investment
cycle at this point? Yes, you can.

You can start to take profits and adjust your
portfolio to a more defensive posture.

Mark-down

The mark-down phase of the investment
cycle is when prices are in steady decline.

This can be gradual or it can be precipitous,
when driven by an economic recession,
social unrest, or war.

Depending on whether or not you are still
invested at this point, the question will be if
you can hold on until the cycle starts again
after the markets have bottomed out.

The key factor at this point is the quality of
the investment you have.

If you own investments that are likely to
weather the storm and even come out
stronger on the other side, you might as well
hold on.

If you entered the market late and
purchased junk, you might as well sell for
pennies on the dollar before your
investment is worthless.

Can You Profitably Time an Investment Cycle?

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Can You Profitably Time an Investment Cycle?