How Britain voted in the 2017 election

How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be
disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
Ipsos MORI estimates
How the voters voted
in the 2017 election

2How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
How Britain voted by gender – overall men and women had similar
voting patterns
44% 43%
40%
42%
7% 8%
2% 1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
Male Female
Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and to the
population profile of Great Britain.
CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM UKIP
%estimatedvoteshare

The change since 2015 was also similar by gender
6% 6%
11%
9%
-1%
0%
-12%
-11%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Male Female
Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and
to the population profile of Great Britain.
+/-changein%estimatedvotesharesince2015

How Britain voted by age – the biggest age gap we’ve seen since our
estimates started in 1979
27% 27%
33%
43%
51%
61%62%
56%
49%
40%
34%
25%
5%
9% 10%
7% 7% 7%
2% 1% 1% 2% 2% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
%estimatedvoteshare

Change since 2015 by age: there was a swing to Labour among
under 44s, and a swing to the Conservatives among over 55s
-1%
-6%
-2%
7%
14% 14%
20% 20%
14%
8%
3% 3%
1% 2%
0%
-1% -2% -1%
7%
-9% -8%
-12% -12% -13%-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+

Young women were even more likely to vote Labour than young men
36%
30%
40%
56%
18%
24%
37%
58%
52% 54%
42%
30%
73%
58%
46%
27%
5%
8% 8%
6% 5%
10% 8% 8%
1% 1% 2% 3% 2% 2% 1% 1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
18-24 25-34 35-54 55+ 18-24 25-34 35-54 55+
Men Women
%estimatedvoteshare

How Britain voted by social class – best score for Labour among ABC1s
since our data series began in 1979, best score for the Conservatives
among C2DEs
47%
44% 45%
38%37%
40% 41%
47%
10%
7% 6% 5%
1% 2% 2% 3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
AB C1 C2 DE
%estimatedvoteshare

Since 2015, swing to Labour among ABC1s. Among C2DEs, Conservative
vote share up even more than Labour, UKIP down substantially
2% 2%
13% 12%
11%
12%
9%
6%
-2%
-1%
0% 0%
-6%
-9%
-17%
-14%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
AB C1 C2 DE

Broadly similar voting patterns by gender within class
50%
43% 45%
36%
43% 44% 45%
38%
34%
40% 41%
48%
40% 40%
42%
47%
10%
8% 5%
4%
11%
7% 7% 6%
1% 2% 3%
5%
1% 2% 1% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE
Men Women
%estimatedvoteshare

Since 2015, both men and women ABC1s have swung to Labour
4%
1%
14%
11%
-1%
3%
11% 11%10%
14%
9% 8%
12%
10% 9%
5%
-1%
0% 0% 0%
-1% -1%
0% 1%
-8%
-10%
-19%
-13%
-4%
-8%
-16% -15%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE
Men Women
+/- change in % estimated vote share since 2015

How Britain voted: class patterns seen within age, age patterns seen
within class
31%
27% 27%
18%
45%
38% 40%
27%
61% 60% 59%
49%
52%
58%
62%
70%
38%
43% 44%
55%
24% 25%
28%
37%
10%
7% 6% 4%
11% 8%
5% 6%
10%
7% 6% 5%
1% 1% *
4%
1% 1% 3% 3% 1% 3% 2% 3%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE AB C1 C2 DE
18-34 35-54 55+
% estimated vote share

How Britain voted by housing tenure: renters strongly Labour, home-
owners Conservative, mortgage holders split
55%
43%
26%
31%30%
40%
57%
54%
7%
9%
4%
7%
2% 2%
4%
1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Owned Mortgage Social renter Private renter
%estimatedvoteshare

Since 2015, both Conservatives and Labour increased share among all
groups, private renters and mortgage holders swung more to Labour.
9%
4%
8%
3%
7% 8% 8%
15%
-2%
0% 1% 1%
-13%
-8%
-15%
-10%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%

How Britain voted by ethnicity – Labour keeps strong lead among
BME voters
45%
19%
39%
73%
8% 6%
2% *
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
White All BME
%estimatedvoteshare

Since 2015, Labour increased share among both white and BME voters,
but Conservatives lost ground among BME voters
6%
-4%
11%
8%
0%
2%
-12%
-2%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
White All BME

How Britain voted: education level is another clear dividing line
52%
46%
33%
35%
39%
48%
4%
6%
12%
4%
2%
*
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
No qualifications Other qualifications Degree or higher
%estimatedvoteshare

How Britain voted: Conservative and Labour both held on to most of
their 2015 vote, but LibDems only kept half of theirs. Six in ten UKIP
voters switched Conservative, most 2015 non-voters went Labour
87%
7%
15%
60%
27%
8%
88%
30%
16%
60%
3% 3%
51%
1%
5%
* * *
18%
1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Conservatives Labour Liberal Democrats UKIP Did not vote (exc. too
young)
%estimatedvoteshare

Conservatives won among 2016 Leave voters, Labour won among 2016
Remainers and those who did not vote
26%
65%
23%
54%
24%
66%
13%
2%
4%
*
4%
1%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Remain Leave Did not vote (exc. too young)
%estimatedvoteshare

Turnout estimates
 As we have noted before, estimating turnout is one of the hardest challenges when relying solely on survey data.
Despite the changes we have introduced to our methodology since 2015, which we believe have made our samples
more representative, polls may still be more likely to interview politically engaged people than those who are
disengaged, people may over-estimate their likelihood of voting, and they may think they are registered when in fact
they are not. For post-election analysis we have the advantage of knowing how many people turned out in the end,
but we still have to identify them in our data on the basis of the answers they gave before the election. This means that
the turnout estimates given here should be treated with particular caution, including taking into account the voter
validation results from the British Election Study when these are published (in previous elections these have shown a
similar pattern to our estimates).
 The turnout figures in these charts express turnout as a % of all resident adults, which is what our sample is based on.
This gives a figure lower than the “official turnout” figures usually used, which is a % of the number of names on the
electoral register (as not everyone in Britain is registered, and some people may be registered twice even though they
can only vote once). The two measures should not be confused. We have also provided a figure for all those registered
in the full analysis on our website, however for the reasons expressed here we believe the figures based on all adults are
both more reliable and more meaningful.

Older people are still more likely to vote than younger people
54% 55% 56%
66%
71% 71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
%estimatedturnoutamongalladults

However the turnout gap has narrowed (which started in the 2016 EU
referendum) – young people were more likely to vote in GE2017 than 2015
38%
53% 54%
47%
54% 55%
58%
64%
56%
67% 69%
66%
72%
76%
71%
74% 73% 71%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017
18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+Base: 7,505 GB adults aged 18+ (5,255 classified as voters), interviewed telephone and online 21 April – 7 June 2017. Data has been weighted to the actual results by region and

Social classes ABC1 remain more likely to vote than classes C2DE
69%
68%
60%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
AB C1 C2 DE

Turnout among social classes C1C2 slightly higher than in GE2015
71%
74%
69%
64%
68% 68%
56%
62% 60%
51%
57%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017
AB C1 C2 DE

Owner-occupiers more likely to vote than renters
70% 68%
52% 53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%

Trends in turnout by tenure
72%
75%
70%
64%
70% 68%
51%
54% 52%
45%
53% 53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017
Owner Mortgage Social renter Private renter

Turnout was highest among graduates
60% 61%
69%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
No Qualifications Other Qualifications Degree or higher

White voters were more likely to vote than BME voters
64%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
White All BME

However the turnout gap between white and BME voters narrowed this year
63%
68%
64%
47% 47%
53%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
GE 2015 EU 2016 GE 2017
White All BME

How the voters voted in the 2015 general election – Ipsos MORI estimates. FINAL PUBLIC
© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information and may not be
disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
29
Ipsos MORI estimates
How the voters voted
in the 2017 election

How Britain voted in the 2017 election

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How Britain voted in the 2017 election