The latest Halifax Market Confidence Tracker research by Ipsos MORI shows a 14 point fall in the Halifax House Price Outlook, down from +56 in March to +42 in October 2016. This is the lowest the measure has been since June 2013, continuing a declining trend following a high point in Spring 2015.

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SlideShare summary
Autumn 2016

2. 2
House Price Outlook (HPO)
7%
1%
2%
4%
8%
22%
26%
20%
8%
3%
Don't know Lower by 15% or
more
Lower by 10% -
15%
Lower by 5% -
10%
Lower but less
than 5% lower
The same Higher but less
than 5% higher
Higher by 5% -
10%
Higher by 10% -
15%
Higher 15% or
more
.
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI
Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?
[respondents given average UK house price*, sourced from Halifax HPI]
* UK house price benchmark given = £213,930
Base: 3,888 GB adults 16+, 23 September – 19 October 2016

3. 3
House Price Outlook trendApr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Aug-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)
Previous Autumn measures
+63
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or
will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax HPO]
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI
Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker
+42
+-2
+64
+62
Base: 3,888 GB adults 16+, 23 September – 19 October 2016

4. 4
HPO and EOI trends
HPO EOI
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?
Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next
12 months?
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI
Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker
EOI – Ipsos MORI
+42
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)
EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse (+)
EOI measures in advance of HPO measure
-1*
* EOI -29, 14-17 Oct 2016
Base: 3,888 GB adults 16+, 23 September – 19 October 2016

5. 5
HPO and selling sentiment
HPO Selling sentiment
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months or will it be the same?
Thinking about the next 12 months do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to
sell a property?
Selling sentiment –
% agree good time to
sell
HPO – + balance of
% higher minus %
lower
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI
Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker
48
+42
Base: 3,888 GB adults 16+, 23 September – 19 October 2016

6. 6
Buying and selling sentiment
(±)
net good time buy
(±)
net good time sell
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people
in general to buy/sell a property?
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI
Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker
+17
+9
Base: 1,953 GB adults 16+, 30 September - 19 October 2016

7. 7
Buying/selling sentiment combined
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people
in general to buy/sell a property?
Good time buy/
bad time sell
Bad time buy/
good time sell
-6 +7 -3 +6
Good time buy/
good time sell
Bad time buy/
bad time sell
+ change vs
Mar 2016
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI
Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker
13%17%
33%
21%
Base: 1,953 GB adults 16+, 30 September - 19 October 2016

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Additional questions

9. 9
Brexit and house prices
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI
Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker
20% 25%
It will be HIGHER than it
would have been
because the UK decided
to withdraw from the EU
It will be LOWER than it
would have been because
the UK decided to
withdraw from the EU
The decision to
withdraw from the
EU will have made
no difference
Q: Now please think again about the average property price in the UK in 12 months’ time. Do you think that it will be higher than it would have
been because the UK decided to withdraw from the European Union in June this year, will it be lower than it would have been, or will the
decision to withdraw have made no difference to the average property price in Britain?
49% 6%
Don’t Know
Base: 1,953 GB adults 16+, 30 September - 19 October 2016

10. 10
Brexit and
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI
Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker
92%
8%
I was not looking to buy or sell a property before
the June referendum
I was looking to buy or sell a property before the
June referendum
3%
2%
95%
22%
41%
8%
7%
21%
Q:You mentioned that you were thinking of buying or selling a property before
the referendum. Which, if any, of these have happened since the vote in June?
Q: You mentioned that you were not thinking of buying or selling a property before
the referendum. Which, if any, of these apply to the period since the vote in June?
I have gone ahead with plans to sell a property
I have gone ahead with plans to buy a property
I have started looking/plan to sell a property
I have started looking/plan to buy a property
I have delayed or cancelled plans to sell a property because of the vote
I have delayed or cancelled plans for some other reason
I am still not looking/planning to buy or sell a property
I have delayed or cancelled plans to buy a property because of the vote
Base: 1,953 GB adults 16+, 30 September - 19 October 2016
behaviours

11. 11
Mortgage rates
Q: In 12 months’ time do you think mortgage interest rates will be higher, lower or about the same
as they are now?
Source: Halifax/Ipsos MORI
Housing Market Consumer Confidence Tracker
Base: 1,027 mortgage holders 16+, 23 September - 19 October 2016
2
36
53
6
1 4
A lot higher
A little higher
The same
A little lower
A lot lower
Don't know
3
4938
4
5
A lot higher
A little higher
The same
A little lower
A lot lower
Don't know
Base: 779 mortgage holders 16+, 12-22 June 2015
2016 2015

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Further information
ben.marshall@ipsos.com
alexandra.aslaksen@ipsos.com