Ipsos MORI Housing Market Tracker Q1 2019

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There has been a significant fall in expectations about house price rises according to a new survey published by Ipsos MORI today. 33% of the British public think the average UK house price will be higher in 12 months’ time, a drop of 17 points since April 2018, down 25 points since March 2017. Now, 30% think prices will be lower in 12 months’ time and 27% think they will be about the same. This means that the House Price Outlook (HPO) – the proportion who think the average price will rise less those who think it will fall – has fallen from +33 last year to +3 now. This HPO is lower than all but one of the 29 measures taken via surveys for Halifax during 2011-2018, the second measure in the series taken in October 2011 and the only time it has been negative (-2).

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118-017787-01 | Housing market confidence tracker | Internal Use
SlideShare summary
Q1 2019
Housing Market Tracking Survey

2
9%
2%
6%
9%
13%
27%
15%
11%
5%
2%
Don't know Lower by 15% or
more
Lower by 10% -
15%
Lower by 5% -
10%
Lower but less
than 5% lower
The same Higher but less
than 5% higher
Higher by 5% -
10%
Higher by 10% -
15%
Higher 15% or
more
.
Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?
[respondents given average UK house price*, sourced from Halifax HPI] * UK house price benchmark given = £223,691
Base: 1,099 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI
House Price Outlook (HPO)

3
HPO +3
Source: Ipsos MORI
EOI - Ipsos MORI (1-5 Feb 2019)
EOI -42 March 2019
Base: 1,099 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019
HPO trend
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or
will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax]
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)
+33
+44
+56
+64+65
+33
+19
+7
+9
-2

4
HPO and EOI trends
HPO EOI
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same?
Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next
12 months?
+3
HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+)
EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse (+)
EOI measures in advance of HPO measure
-43
Source: Ipsos MORI
EOI - Ipsos MORI (1-5 Feb 2019)
EOI -42 March 2019
Base: 1,099 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019

5
‘Higher’ trends
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be
the same? (HPO) > 15% higher 10 - 15% higher 5 - 10% higher < 5% higher The same
2
5
27
15
11
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI

6
‘Lower’ trends
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be
the same? ( HPO) > 15% lower 10 - 15% lower 5 - 10% lower < 5% lower The same
27
9
13
2
6
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI

7
Buying and selling sentiment
(±)
net good time buy
(±)
net good time sell
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people
in general to buy/sell a property?
-5
-27
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI

8
HPO and selling sentiment
HPO Selling sentiment
Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months or will it be the same?
Thinking about the next 12 months do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to
sell a property?
Selling sentiment –
% agree good time to
sell
HPO – + balance of
% higher minus %
lower
30
+3
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI

9
Buying/selling sentiment combined
Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people
in general to buy/sell a property?
Good time buy/
bad time sell
Bad time buy/
good time sell
-11 -6 +17
Good time buy/
good time sell
Bad time buy/
bad time sell
+ change vs
April 2018
6%
17%
23%
39%
+4
Base: 1,009 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI

1018-017787-01 | Housing market confidence tracker | Internal Use
Further information:
ben.marshall@ipsos.com

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Ipsos MORI Housing Market Tracker Q1 2019

1. 118-017787-01 | Housing market confidence tracker | Internal Use SlideShare summary Q1 2019 Housing Market Tracking Survey

2. 2 9% 2% 6% 9% 13% 27% 15% 11% 5% 2% Don't know Lower by 15% or more Lower by 10% - 15% Lower by 5% - 10% Lower but less than 5% lower The same Higher but less than 5% higher Higher by 5% - 10% Higher by 10% - 15% Higher 15% or more . Q. Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price*, sourced from Halifax HPI] * UK house price benchmark given = £223,691 Base: 1,099 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI House Price Outlook (HPO)

3. 3 HPO +3 Source: Ipsos MORI EOI - Ipsos MORI (1-5 Feb 2019) EOI -42 March 2019 Base: 1,099 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 HPO trend Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? [respondents given average UK house price sourced from Halifax] HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) +33 +44 +56 +64+65 +33 +19 +7 +9 -2

4. 4 HPO and EOI trends HPO EOI Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? Do you think the general economic condition of the country will improve, stay the same, or get worse over the next 12 months? +3 HPO – balance of % higher minus % lower (+) EOI – balance of % improve minus % get worse (+) EOI measures in advance of HPO measure -43 Source: Ipsos MORI EOI - Ipsos MORI (1-5 Feb 2019) EOI -42 March 2019 Base: 1,099 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019

5. 5 ‘Higher’ trends Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? (HPO) > 15% higher 10 - 15% higher 5 - 10% higher < 5% higher The same 2 5 27 15 11 Base: 1,009 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI

6. 6 ‘Lower’ trends Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months time or will it be the same? ( HPO) > 15% lower 10 - 15% lower 5 - 10% lower < 5% lower The same 27 9 13 2 6 Base: 1,009 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI

7. 7 Buying and selling sentiment (±) net good time buy (±) net good time sell Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? -5 -27 Base: 1,009 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI

8. 8 HPO and selling sentiment HPO Selling sentiment Do you think the average property price in the UK will be higher or lower in 12 months or will it be the same? Thinking about the next 12 months do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to sell a property? Selling sentiment – % agree good time to sell HPO – + balance of % higher minus % lower 30 +3 Base: 1,009 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI

9. 9 Buying/selling sentiment combined Thinking about the next 12 months, do you think it would be a good time or a bad time for people in general to buy/sell a property? Good time buy/ bad time sell Bad time buy/ good time sell -11 -6 +17 Good time buy/ good time sell Bad time buy/ bad time sell + change vs April 2018 6% 17% 23% 39% +4 Base: 1,009 GB adults 16+, interviewed between 8-25 March 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI

10. 1018-017787-01 | Housing market confidence tracker | Internal Use Further information: ben.marshall@ipsos.com

Ipsos MORI Housing Market Tracker Q1 2019

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Ipsos MORI Housing Market Tracker Q1 2019