Ipsos MORI May 2019 Political Monitor

1Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1
May 2019
POLITICAL MONITOR

May 2019
VOTING
INTENTIONS

3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Voting Intention: May 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 10– 14 May 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 733 Margin of error
is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in
10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially
important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION
HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -3
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -2
27%
25%
16%
15%
7%
3%
2%
LABOUR
CONSERVATIVE
THE BREXIT
PARTY
LIB DEM
GREEN
UKIP
CHANGE UK
28%
25%
13%
13%
7%
4%
2%
LABOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LIB DEM
THE BREXIT PARTY
GREEN
UKIP
CHANGE UK

Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May15
Jul15
Sep15
Nov15
Jan16
Mar16
May16
Jul16
Sep16
Nov16
Jan17
Mar17
May17
Jul17
Sep17
Nov17
Jan18
Mar18
May18
Jul18
Sep18
Nov18
Jan19
Mar19
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
CONSERVATIVE 25%
LABOUR 27%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
May ‘19
May19

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan04
Apr04
Jul04
Oct04
Jan05
Apr05
Jul05
Oct05
Jan06
Apr06
Jul06
Oct06
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Jan10
Apr10
Jul10
Oct10
Jan11
Apr11
Jul11
Oct11
Jan12
Apr12
Jul12
Oct12
Jan13
Apr13
Jul13
Oct13
Jan14
Apr14
Jul14
Oct14
Jan15
Apr15
Jul15
Oct15
Jan16
Apr16
Jul16
Oct16
Jan17
Apr17
Jul17
Oct17
Jan18
Apr18
Jul18
Oct18
Jan19
Apr19
Miliband elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – May ‘19
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE 25%
LABOUR 27%
UKIP 3%
GREEN 7%
LIB DEM 15%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
May‘19
THE BREXIT PARTY 16%
CHANGE UK 2%

May 2019
SATISFACTION
WITH GOVERNMENT
AND PARTY
LEADERS

Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentVince Cable
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB.
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: May 2019
Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and
% “dissatisfied”
73%
7%
20%
37%
31%
32%
DISSATISFIED
DON’T KNOW
SATISFIED
-3.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019 -1.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019 +6.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019 +0.5% SWING FROM MAR 2019
NET=-53 NET=-5 NET=-74NET=-43
69%
5%
26%
10%
5%
84
%

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE
LABOUR/LIB DEM PARTY?.
Satisfaction with Party leaders September 2015 – May 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep15
Oct15
Nov15
Dec15
Jan16
Feb16
Mar16
Apr16
May16
Jun16
Jul16
Aug16
Sep16
Oct16
Nov16
Dec16
Jan17
Feb17
Mar17
Apr17
May17
Jun17
Jul17
Aug17
Sep17
Oct17
Nov17
Dec17
Jan18
Feb18
Mar18
Apr18
May18
Jun18
Jul18
Aug18
Sep18
Oct18
Nov18
Dec18
Jan19
Feb19
Mar19
Apr19
2016 EU Ref
% satisfied
MAY 26%
CORBYN 20%
CABLE 32%
GENERAL
ELECTION
May ‘19

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
MAY
CAMERON
BROWN
MAJOR
BLAIR
THATCHER
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
NETSATISFACTION
May
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019)
Corbyn
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER
NETSATISFACTION
CORBYN
BLAIR
SMITH
KINNOCK
MILLIBAND
FOOT
CAMERON
DUNCAN-SMITH
HAGUE
HOWARD

HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019)
Theresa May’s Government
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT
NETSATISFACTION
MAY’S GOV
BLAIR’S GOV
MAJOR’S GOV
CAMERON’S GOV
THATCHER’S GOV
BROWN’S GOV

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Theresa May
May 2019 August 2016 – May 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
69% Dissatisfied
5% Don’t know
26% Satisfied
NET = -43
Satisfaction
DISSATISFIED 69%
SATISFIED 26%
%
Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 March 2019

ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY THERESA MAY IS DOING HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Theresa May
Base: 222 Conservative supporters 18+ 10-14 May 2019
May 2019 August 2016 – May 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
43% Dissatisfied
4% Don’t know
53% Satisfied
NET = +10
DISSATISFIED 43%
SATISFIED 53%
Satisfaction amongst Conservative supporters
%

Jeremy Corbyn
May 2019 September 2015 – May 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
.
SATISFIED 20%
DISSATISFIED 73%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = -53
Satisfaction
73% Dissatisfied
7% Don’t know
20% Satisfied
%
Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 March 2019

Jeremy Corbyn
Base: 197 Labour supporters 18+ 10-14 May 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Jul-16
Sep-16
Nov-16
Jan-17
Mar-17
May-17
Jul-17
Sep-17
Nov-17
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = +14
Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters
40% Dissatisfied
6% Don’t know
54% Satisfied
SATISFIED 54%
DISSATISFIED 40%
%

Vince Cable
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
Sep-17
Oct-17
Nov-17
Dec-17
Jan-18
Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
DISSATISFIED 37%
SATISFIED 32%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY VINCE CABLE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?.
NET = -5
37% Dissatisfied
31% Don’t know
32% Satisfied
Satisfaction
%
Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019

May 2019
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Dec-18
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index
May 2019
EOI = -35
51%
25%
16%
9%
GET WORSE
STAY THE SAME
Don’t know
GET BETTER
Stay the same
Get worse
Improve
%
January 2007 – May 2019
Mar-19
May ‘19

DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan1998
Oct1998
Jul1999
Apr2000
Jan2001
Oct2001
Jul2002
Apr2003
Jan2004
Oct2004
Jul2005
Apr2006
Jan2007
Oct2007
Jul2008
Apr2009
Jan2010
Oct2010
Jul2011
Apr2012
Jan2013
Oct2013
Jul2014
Apr2015
Jan2016
Oct2016
Jul2017
Apr2018
Jan2019
NET OPTIMISM=-35
Mar2019
May ‘19

May 2019
POTENTIAL
PRIME MINISTERS
AND CONSERVATIVE
LEADERSHIP

POSSIBLE
AS SOON AS
ONCE BRITAIN HAS LEFT
NEXT GENERAL ELECTION
THE EU BUT BEFORE THE
AFTER THE NEXT
GENERAL ELECTION
21%
21%
28%
24%
7%
AS SOON AS PARLIAMENT
HAS AGREED A DEAL FOR
HOW BRITAIN SHOULD
LEAVE THE EU
WHEN, IF AT ALL, DO YOU THINK THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER?
Conservative party leadership
Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 10-14 May 2019
POSSIBLE
AS SOON AS
AFTER THE NEXT
GENERAL ELECTION
DON’T KNOW
GENERAL PUBLIC AMONG CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS
36%
18%
20%
15%
11%
HOW BRITAIN SHOULD
LEAVE THE EU
DON’T KNOW

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
Prime Minister material?
11%
11%
13%
16%
19%
19%
20%
25%
36%
30%
45%
56%
52%
51%
47%
64%
Penny Mordaunt
Rory Stewart
Dominic Raab
Michael Gove
Jeremy Hunt
Amber Rudd
Sajid Javid
Boris Johnson
AGREE DISAGREE AGREE
NET
-39
-27
-32
-33
-40
-32
-25
SINCE
SWING
MAR ‘19
-19
+0.5
-1
-1
+0.5
+2
+2
-
-
Base: 1,072 British adults 18+ 10-14 May 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree”

ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
Prime Minister material?
17%
21%
22%
26%
29%
30%
36%
36%
24%
28%
29%
48%
41%
38%
53%
36%
Rory Stewart
Penny Mordaunt
Dominic Raab
Michael Gove
Jeremy Hunt
Amber Rudd
Boris Johnson
Sajid Javid
AGREE DISAGREE AGREE
NET
0
-17
-8
-12
-22
-7
-7
SINCE
MAR ‘19
-7
+4
+4.5
+0.5
-4
-3.5
+8.5
-
-
Among Conservative party supporters
Base: 222 Conservative party supporters, 10-14 May 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree.
SWING

May 2019
BREXIT

POSSIBLE
AS SOON AS
AFTER THE NEXT
GENERAL ELECTION
21%
21%
28%
24%
7%
HOW BRITAIN SHOULD
LEAVE THE EU
WHEN, IF AT ALL, DO YOU THINK THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY SHOULD CHANGE ITS LEADER?
Conservative party leadership
POSSIBLE
AS SOON AS
AFTER THE NEXT
GENERAL ELECTION
DON’T KNOW
GENERAL PUBLIC AMONG CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS
36%
18%
20%
15%
11%
HOW BRITAIN SHOULD
LEAVE THE EU
DON’T KNOW

7% I like the party and I like their approach to Brexit
26% I like the party but I do not like their approach to Brexit
5% I do not like the party but I like their approach to Brexit
53% I do not like the party and I do not like their approach to Brexit
9% Don’t know
WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH
TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)?
The Conservative party and its position on Brexit
v
Conservative Party and their Brexit position
Total like the party 33%
Total do not like the party 58%
Total like their approach to
Brexit 12%
Total do not like their approach
to Brexit 79%

24% I like the party and I like their approach to Brexit
4% I like the party but I do not like their approach to Brexit
7% I do not like the party but I like their approach to Brexit
45% I do not like the party and I do not like their approach to Brexit
20% Don’t know
WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH
TO BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN UNION (BREXIT)?
The Brexit Party and its position on Brexit
v
The Brexit Party and their Brexit position
Total like the party 28%
Total do not like the party 52%
Total like their approach to
Brexit 31%
Total do not like their approach
to Brexit 49%

50%
18%
31%
76%
41%
69%
40%
25%
LIKE
Base: 371 2017 Conservative voters 18+ 10-14 May 2019
DO NOT LIKE
Political parties and
their position on Brexit
WHICH OF THESE STATEMENTS
COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEWS
OF EACH OF THE FOLLOWING
PARTIES AND THEIR APPROACH TO
BRITAIN LEAVING THE EUROPEAN
UNION (BREXIT)?
Among 2017
Conservative voters
The Conservative party
The Brexit party
The Conservative party’s
approach to Brexit
The Brexit party’s
approach to Brexit

DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S
EXIT FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?
Handling Britain’s exit from the European Union
45%
25%
50%
71%
GOOD JOB BAD JOB
GENERAL PUBLIC
CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS
THERESA MAY
NET
GOOD JOB
-46
-5

Theresa May’s handling of Britain’s exit from the European Union
Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month
BAD JOB 71%
GOOD JOB 25%
May ‘19
DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT FROM
THE EUROPEAN UNION?
c
51%
49%
35%
32%
43%
30%
35%
40%
55% 55%
50%
65%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
May-19

Theresa May’s handling of Britain’s exit from the European Union
GOOD JOB 45%
BAD JOB 50%
May ‘19
DO YOU THINK EACH OF THE FOLLOWING HAS DONE A GOOD OR A BAD JOB AT HANDLING BRITAIN’S EXIT
FROM THE EUROPEAN UNION?
c
80%
71%
58%
74%
57%
13%
21%
27%
23%
38%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
Dec-16
Jul-17
Oct-17
Mar-18
Mar-19
May-19
Among Conservative supporters
Base: c. 350 Conservative party supporters each month

Confidence in May to get a good Brexit deal for Britain
Base: c. 1,000 British adults 18+ each month
* In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’’’
NOT CONFIDENT 80%
CONFIDENT 18%
44%
36% 35%
37%
34%
30%
25%
28%
19%
23% 21%
18%
51%
60% 60%
59%
63%
67%
72% 70%
78%
69%
77% 79%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90 May ‘19
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN
NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.
Mar-17
Jul-17
Oct-17
Mar-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Mar-19
May-19

73%
66%
67% 67%
56%
47% 45%
34%
39%
36% 37%
26%
30%
33%
32%
43%
51% 53%
64%
54%
62%
60%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT THERESA MAY HAS GOT/WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN
NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?.
Confidence in May to get a good deal for Britain
Base: c. 350 Conservative party supporters each month
* In December 2018 the question was posed as ‘has got a good deal’,
NOT CONFIDENT 64%
CONFIDENT 36%
Among Conservative supporters
May ‘19
Jul-17
Oct-17
Mar-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Mar-19
May-19

64%
49%
47%
13%
35%
28%
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE CONSERVATIVE
AND LABOUR PARTIES ARE HOLDING
TALKS TO SEE IF THEY CAN AGREE ON A
DEAL FOR HOW BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE
THE EUROPEAN UNION. TO WHAT EXTENT,
IF AT ALL DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE
LABOUR AND CONSERVATIVES HOLDING
THESE TALKS?
Public opinion
on cross-party
Brexit talks
SUPPORT OPPOSE
GENERAL PUBLIC
LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS
Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters 10-14 May 2019

24%
19%
17%
76%
80%
79%
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE CONSERVATIVE
AND LABOUR PARTIES ARE HOLDING
TALKS TO SEE IF THEY CAN AGREE ON A
DEAL FOR HOW BRITAIN SHOULD LEAVE
THE EUROPEAN UNION. TO WHAT EXTENT,
IF AT ALL DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE
LABOUR AND CONSERVATIVES HOLDING
THESE TALKS?
Likelihood of the
Conservatives and the
Labour party agreeing
on a Brexit deal
SUPPORT OPPOSE
GENERAL PUBLIC
LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS
Base: 1,072 British adults 18+, 222 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters 10-14 May 2019

October 2018
Ipsos MORI
May 2019 Political Monitor
Gideon Skinner
Research Director
gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
Keiran Pedley
Research Director
keiran.pedley@ipsos.com
Glenn Gottfried
Research Manager
glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com
For more information

Ipsos MORI May 2019 Political Monitor

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