Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - July 2015
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Ipsos MORI's July 2015 UK Political Monitor covers voting intention, views on the candidates to lead the UK Labour Party as wwell as likely future candidates to lead the UK Conservative Party and public attitudes to expansion of UK airport capacity. https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive.aspx?contenttype=Politicians+%26+Parties%3bPolitical+Monitor&datefield=published
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Ipsos MORI Political Monitor - July 2015
- 1. 2015 JULY POLITICAL MONITOR 24 JULY 2015
- 3. Voting Intention HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 36% 33% 8% 8% 9% 6% All giving a voting intention Headline voting intention Conservative lead = +3 Conservative lead = +6 CONSERVATIVE LABOUR UKIP GREEN LIB DEM OTHER 37% 31% 9% 8% 10% 5% Base Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015, all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 748 Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out. 3
- 5. Future Prime Ministers? – Labour contenders 5 6% 3% 5% 7% 11% 13% 17% 20% 19% 23% 19% 20% 15% 14% 17% 14% 21% 16% 17% 13% 28% 30% 24% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jeremy Corbyn Liz Kendall Yvette Cooper Andy Burnham Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/ nor Tend to dis-agree Strongly disagree Don’t know 27% 27% 22% 16% 17% 34% 30% 36% Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER
- 6. Future Prime Ministers? (among Labour Supporters) 6 10% 6% 11% 14% 16% 16% 26% 29% 19% 22% 21% 21% 19% 15% 13% 11% 15% 19% 12% 8% 22% 22% 17% 17% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Jeremy Corbyn Liz Kendall Yvette Cooper Andy Burnham Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/ nor Tend to dis-agree Strongly disagree Don’t know 43% 19% 37% 22% 26% 25% 34% 34% Base: 299 Labour supporters 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER
- 7. SATISFACTION WITH THE GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
- 8. DAVID CAMERON HARRIET HARMAN NIGEL FARAGE GOVERNMENT -7.0% swing from June +2.5% swing from June -4.5% swing from June -7 Net -1 Net -13 Net -12 Net SATISFIED 42% SATISFIED 33% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 39% DISSATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 34% DISSATISFIED 44% DISSATISFIED 51% Satisfaction with leaders and the Government Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” 8 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /ACTING LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF UKIP? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 0 -100 +100
- 9. Satisfaction with Party leaders Feb ‘08 – July ‘15 Base: c.1,026 British adults each month 9HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB AS … ? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 42% 31% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Mar08 Jul08 Nov08 Mar09 Jul09 Nov09 Mar10 Jul10 Nov10 Mar11 Jul11 Nov11 Mar12 Jul12 Nov12 Mar13 Jul13 Nov13 Mar14 Jul14 Nov14 Mar15 Jul15 CAMERON FARAGE
- 10. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers Base: c.1,026 British adults each month 10HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY… IS DOING HIS / HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER Netsatisfaction Number of months from becoming Prime Minister Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
- 11. David Cameron (satisfaction) Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 11ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 42% 49% 8% July 2015 May 2006 – July 2015 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 May-06 Oct-06 Jun-07 Dec-07 May-08 Oct-08 Mar-09 Aug-09 Jan-10 Jun-10 Dec-10 May-11 Oct-11 Mar-12 Aug-12 Jan-13 Jun-13 Nov-13 Apr-14 Sep-14 Feb-15 Jul-15 Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone SATISFIED 42% DISSATISFIED 49% DON’T KNOW 8% Net = -7 Dissatisfied Satisfied
- 12. David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters) Base: 312 Conservative supporters 18+, 18th -20th July 2015 12ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/ AS PRIME MINISTER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 83% 12% 5% July 2015 May 2006 – July 2015 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 May06 Jan07 Sep07 Apr08 Oct-08 Apr-09 Oct-09 Apr-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone SATISFIED 83% DISSATISFIED 12% DON’T KNOW 5% Net = +71 Satisfied Dissatisfied
- 13. Harriet Harman (satisfaction) 13ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY HARRIET HARMAN IS DOING HER JOB AS ACTING LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 33% 34% 34% July 2015 SATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 34% DON’T KNOW 34% Net = -1 Base: 1,026 British adults; 299 Labour supporters 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 43% 30% 27% SATISFIED 43% DISSATISFIED 30% DON’T KNOW 27% Net = +13 Labour supporters only
- 14. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Nigel Farage (satisfaction) Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 14ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 31% 44% 25% July 2015 March 2013 – July 2015 SATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 44% DON’T KNOW 25% Net = -13 Dissatisfied Satisfied
- 15. 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mar-13 May-13 Jul-13 Sep-13 Nov-13 Jan-14 Mar-14 May-14 Jul-14 Sep-14 Nov-14 Jan-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Nigel Farage (satisfaction) Base: 67 UKIP supporters 18+, 18th–20th July 2015 15ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 83% 13% 3% July 2015 March 2013 – July 2015 SATISFIED 83% DISSATISFIED 13% DON’T KNOW 3% Net = +70 Dissatisfied Satisfied
- 17. Economic Optimism Index Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 17DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor July 2015 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-04 May-04 Sep-04 Jan-05 May-05 Sep-05 Feb-06 Jun-06 Nov-06 May-07 Sep-07 Feb-08 Jun-08 Oct-08 Feb-09 Jun-09 Oct-09 Feb-10 Jun-10 Nov-10 Mar-11 Jul-117 Nov-11 Mar-12 Jul-12 Nov-12 Mar-13 Jul-13 Nov-13 Mar-14 Jul-14 Nov-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 IMPROVE 42% STAY THE SAME 26% GET WORSE 28% DON’T KNOW 4% EOI = +14
- 18. The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index Base: c.1,000 British adults each month 18DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jun1997 Jan1998 Aug1998 Mar1999 Oct1999 May2000 Dec2000 Jul2001 Feb2002 Sep2002 Apr2003 Nov2003 Jun2004 Jan2005 Aug2005 Mar2006 Oct2006 May2007 Dec2007 Jul2008 Feb2009 Sep2009 Apr2010 Nov2010 Jun2011 Jan2012 Aug2012 Mar2013 Oct2013 May2014 Dec2014 Jul2015 +14
- 19. FUTURE LEADERS?
- 20. Future Prime Ministers? – Conservative contenders 20 3% 7% 7% 13% 10% 21% 16% 19% 18% 18% 15% 11% 18% 17% 20% 21% 35% 25% 33% 31% 16% 11% 8% 6% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Michael Gove Theresa May George Osborne Boris Johnson Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/ nor Tend to dis-agree Strongly disagree Don’t know 23% 53% 32% 28% 13% 52% 42% 53% Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER
- 21. Future Prime Ministers? (among Conservative supporters) 21 4% 14% 17% 20% 12% 31% 28% 27% 18% 16% 15% 8% 26% 17% 23% 26% 22% 13% 11% 16% 16% 8% 7% 3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Michael Gove Theresa May George Osborne Boris Johnson Strongly agree Tend to agree Neither/ nor Tend to dis-agree Strongly disagree Don’t know 45% 34% 47% 45% 16% 42% 30% 48% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT… HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER Base: 312 Conservative supporters 18+, 18th -20th July 2015
- 22. SUMMER BUDGET
- 23. 44% 44% 12% Satisfaction with George Osborne 23ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY GEORGE OSBORNE IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor July2015 June 2010 – July 2015 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Jun-10 Mar-11 Dec-11 Apr-12 Mar-13 Apr-14 Mar-15 Jul-15 BB = Before Budget AB = After Budget AAS = After Autumn Statement BB BB BB BB BB BB AAS AAS AB AB BB BB AB AB SATISFIED 44% DISSATISFIED 44% DON’T KNOW 12% Net = 0 Dissatisfied Satisfied Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
- 24. Satisfaction with chancellors – long term trend Base: c1,000 British adults aged 18+ 24 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY XXX IS DOING HIS JOB AS CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER? Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor % saying ‘satisfied’ 66% 44% 67% 52% 45%45% 34% 39% 44% 42% 37% 39% 36%37% 18% 31% 17% 24% 28% 38% 34% 52% 44% 56% 45% 42% 48% 52% 34% 41% 55% 57% 48% 46% 49% 47% 42% 32% 28% 36% 40% 36% 38% 28%27% 47% 43%44% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Mar-… Mar-… Apr-78 Jul-80 Mar-… Jun-83 Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Mar-… Dec… Dec… Nov… Dec… Nov… Dec… Jul-97 Feb-… Mar-… Mar-… Feb-… Mar-… Jul-00 Sep… Nov… Mar-… Apr-02 Apr-03 Mar-… Nov… Feb-… Dec… Apr-07 Mar-… Mar-… Jun-10 Mar-… Dec… Apr-12 Mar-… Apr-14 Mar-… Jul-15 Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Darling Osborne
- 25. 45% 38% 17% Summer Budget 25AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED ITS SUMMER 2015 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING….? Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Good thing Bad thing 46% 44% 10% Don’t know ...for the country Good thing Bad thing ...for you personally
- 26. Is the 2015 budget seen as good for the country as previous ones? 26 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT RECENTLY ANNOUNCED ITS SUMMER 2015 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING FOR THE COUNTRY? Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 47% 69% 39% 47%48% 46% 35% 37% 45% 40% 42% 28% 32% 34% 23% 29% 20% 23% 27% 56%57% 46% 48% 52% 65% 37% 45% 25% 54% 33% 48% 46% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne % Saying Good
- 27. 27 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor 34% 68% 26% 41% 36% 42% 32% 42% 49% 40% 36% 27% 36%35% 11% 16%15% 25% 20% 29% 33% 36% 26% 42% 45% 24% 34% 21% 26%25% 43% 45% 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Healey MajorHowe Lawson Lamont Clarke Brown Osborne AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE GOVERNMENT ANNOUNCED ITS SUMMER 2015 BUDGET LAST WEEK. FROM WHAT YOU KNOW OR HAVE HEARD, DO YOU THINK THE BUDGET PROPOSALS ARE A GOOD THING OR A BAD THING FOR YOU PERSONALLY? Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 % Saying Good Is the 2015 budget seen as good for people personally as previous ones?
- 28. AIRPORTS
- 29. Support for increasing airport capacity 29 A) SOME PEOPLE THINK THAT SCOTTISH MPS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO VOTE IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS ON ISSUES THAT HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON PEOPLE IN SCOTLAND Source: Ipsos MORI July 2015 Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 SOME PEOPLE SAY THAT BRITAIN’S AIRPORT CAPACITY SHOULD BE INCREASED IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS BY EITHER BUILDING A NEW AIRPORT OR EXPANDING EXISTING AIRPORTS. OTHER PEOPLE THINK IT SHOULD NOT BE INCREASED IN THE NEXT FEW YEARS. DO YOU THINK BRITAIN’S AIRPORT CAPACITY SHOULD OR SHOULD NOT BE INCREASED? 60% 33% 7% Britain's airport capacity should be increased Britain's airport capacity should not be increased Don’t know
- 30. Airport expansion debate 30 A) SOME PEOPLE THINK THAT SCOTTISH MPS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO VOTE IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS ON ISSUES THAT HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON PEOPLE IN SCOTLAND Source: Ipsos MORI July 2015 AND WHICH ONE OF THE FOLLOWING DO YOU THINK IS THE BEST WAY OF INCREASING BRITAIN’S AIRPORT CAPACITY? 7% 1% 3% 14% 22% 24% 30% Don’t know None of these options Other Another airport should be expanded Heathrow should be expanded by building a 3rd runway Gatwick should be expanded by building a 2nd runway A new airport should be built Base: 635 saying airport capacity should be increased 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
- 31. Considerations for new runway 31 A) SOME PEOPLE THINK THAT SCOTTISH MPS SHOULD NOT BE ALLOWED TO VOTE IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS ON ISSUES THAT HAVE NO DIRECT IMPACT ON PEOPLE IN SCOTLAND Source: Ipsos MORI July 2015 WHEN DECIDING WHERE A NEW RUNWAY SHOULD BE BUILT, WHAT, IF ANY, ARE THE MOST IMPORTANT ISSUES THE GOVERNMENT SHOULD CONSIDER? WHAT ELSE? 11% 5% 5% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 9% 11% 12% 12% 15% 15% 30% 39% Don’t know I don’t think a new runway should be built Accessibility Meeting the needs of businesses Transport infrastructure Being close to a big city Avoiding built up areas Local residents/ community/local area Disruption while it is being built Impact on traffic congestion How much pollution it causes Costs of construction Support from local residents Generating jobs and growth in the economy How much noise created for local residents Impact on the natural environment Base: 1,026 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015
- 33. 33% 33% 26% 19% 11% 16% 11% 13% 14% 17% Strongly support Tend to support Neither support not oppose Tend to oppose Strongly oppose Don’t know a) Some people think that Scottish MPs should not be allowed to vote in the House of Commons on issues that have no direct impact on people in Scotland b) The Government has proposed that English MPs should be allowed a veto in the House of Commons on issues that only have an impact on people in England. English votes For English laws 33AS YOU MAY KNOW, SCOTLAND HAS ITS OWN PARLIAMENT WHICH MAKES DECISIONS ABOUT ISSUES SUCH AS HEALTH AND EDUCATION. THIS IS NOT THE CASE IN ENGLAND WHERE ALL ISSUES ARE DECIDED BY MPS FROM ACROSS THE UK IN THE HOUSE OF COMMONS. Source: Ipsos MORIBase: A and B asked of half the sample. 513 British adults 18+, 18th –20th July 2015 SPLIT SAMPLE BETWEEN STATEMENTS A AND B TO WHAT EXTENT WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE SUCH A CHANGE? WOULD YOU…..