With just one month to go until the referendum on Britain’s membership of the European Union, Ipsos MORI’s new Political Monitor shows that on balance Britons believe the economy would be better off in the long term if Britain left the European Union yet likely be worse off in the years immediately following Brexit. When asked if Britain votes to leave the European Union, to what extent do you think it would be better or worse for Britain’s economy over the next five years, half (49%) say it would be worse compared with a quarter (26%) who say it would be better (15% say Brexit would make no difference). When asked about Britain’s economy over the next ten to twenty years however two in five (39%) think it would be better outside the EU compared with 35% who say it would be worse (11% say Brexit would make no difference).

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© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
1
Ipsos MORI
MAY 2016 POLITICAL MONITOR

2. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 2
VOTING
INTENTIONS

3. 3Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May2016; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote
in General Elections = 725. Headline voting intention is based on a method that would have given most accurate results in the 2015 GE; this
is an interim measure whilst our internal review is carried out.
Voting Intention
34%
38%
10%
5%
7%
6%
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = -4 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +2
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
UKIP
GREEN
LIB DEM
OTHER
36%
34%
10%
5%
8%
7%

4. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 4
SATISFACTION WITH THE
GOVERNMENT AND
PARTY LEADERS

5. 5Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
22%
33%
45%
36%
41%
23%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS / LEADER OF
UKIP?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May2016 When asked about Nigel Farage and Tim Farron the sample was split sampled with 483 and 519 British
adults 18+ asked about each respectively. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government
30%
62%
8%
-5.5%
swing from April 2016
-7%
swing from April 2016
+0.5%
swing from April 2016
-1.5%
swing from April 2016
-3%
swing from April 2016
-30 Net -19 Net -5 Net -11 Net -32 Net
SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 31% SATISFIED 36% SATISFIED 22% SATISFIED 30%
DISSATISFIED 61% DISSATISFIED 50% DISSATISFIED 41% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 62%
31%
61%
8%
31%
50%
18%
David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn Nigel Farage Tim Farron The Government

6. 6Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS
JOB AS … ?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Satisfaction with Party leaders May 2010 – May ’16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
2010
2010
2010
2010
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2011
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2012
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2014
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2015
2016
2016
2016
CAMERON FARAGE CORBYN FARRON
31%
36%
31%
22%

7. 7Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers
CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER
Netsatisfaction
NUMBER OF MONTHS FROM BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

8. 8Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE …
PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1994 – 2015)
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Number of months from becoming Opposition Leader
Netsatisfaction
HOWARD BLAIR (94-97) DUNCAN SMITH (01-03) MILIBAND (10-15) CAMERON (05-10) HAGUE (97-01) CORBYN (15-present)

9. 9Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY / AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
David Cameron (satisfaction)
31%
61%
8%
May 2016 May 2006 –May 2016
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
May-06
Jul-06
Sep-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Jun-07
Aug-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Mar-08
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Dec-10
Feb-11
Apr-11
Jun-11
Aug-11
Oct-11
Dec-11
Feb-12
Apr-12
Jun-12
Aug-12
Oct-12
Dec-12
Feb-13
Apr-13
Jun-13
Aug-13
Oct-13
Dec-13
Feb-14
Apr-14
Jun-14
Aug-14
Oct-14
Dec-14
Feb-15
Apr-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
Nov-15
Jan-16
Mar-16
May-16
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
SATISFIED 31%
DISSATISFIED 61%
DON’T KNOW 8%
Net = -30
Dissatisfied
Satisfied

10. 10Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
66%
27%
8%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY DAVID CAMERON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE CONSERVATIVE PARTY/AS PRIME MINISTER?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 275 Conservative supporters 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
David Cameron (satisfaction among Tory supporters)
May 2016 May 2006 –May 2016
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
May06
Jul06
Oct06
Jan07
May07
Jul07
Sep07
Dec07
Feb08
Apr08
Jun08
Aug08
Oct-08
Dec-08
Feb-09
Apr-09
Jun-09
Aug-09
Oct-09
Dec-09
Feb-10
Apr-10
Jun-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
Jan-14
Mar-14
May-14
Jul-14
Sep-14
Nov-14
Jan-15
Mar-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Dec-15
Feb-16
Apr-16
SATISFIED 66%
DISSATISFIED 27%
DON’T KNOW 8%
Net = +39
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

11. 11Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
31%
50%
18%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
SATISFIED 31%
DISSATISFIED 50%
DON’T KNOW 18%
Net = -19
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction)
May 2016 September 2015 – May 2016
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

12. 12Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
56%
31%
14%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
SATISFIED 56%
DISSATISFIED 31%
DON’T KNOW 14%
Net = +25
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF
THE LABOUR PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 336 Labour supporters 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Jeremy Corbyn (satisfaction amongst Labour supporters)
May 2016 September 2015 – May 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

13. 13Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
22%
33%
45%
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
SATISFIED 22%
DISSATISFIED 33%
DON’T KNOW 45%
Net = -11
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY TIM FARRON IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
LIBERAL DEMOCRATS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 483 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May2016
Tim Farron (satisfaction)
May 2016 September 2015 – May 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

14. 14Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
36%
41%
23%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
Feb-14
Mar-14
Apr-14
May-14
Jun-14
Jul-14
Aug-14
Sep-14
Oct-14
Nov-14
Dec-14
Jan-15
Feb-15
Mar-15
Apr-152
Apr-15
Jun-15
Jul-15
Sep-15
Oct-15
Nov-15
Dec-15
Jan-16
Feb-16
Mar-16
Aprl-16
May-16
SATISFIED 36%
DISSATISFIED 41%
DON’T KNOW 23%
Net = -5
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY NIGEL FARAGE IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE
UNITED KINGDOM INDEPENDENCE PARTY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 519 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Nigel Farage (satisfaction)
May 2016 March 2013 – May 2016
Satisfied
Dissatisfied

15. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 15
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

16. 16Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
18%
31%
38%
12%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Feb-06
May-06
Sep-06
Dec-06
May-07
Aug-07
Dec-07
Mar-08
Jun-08
Sep-08
Dec-08
Mar-09
Jun-09
Sep-09
Dec-09
Mar-10
Jun-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-117
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-152
Jul-15
Nov-15
Feb-16
May-16
IMPROVE 18%
STAY THE SAME 31%
GET WORSE 38%
DON’T KNOW 12%
EOI = -20
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Economic Optimism Index
May 2016

17. 17Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE
SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
The Ipsos MORI Economic Optimism Index
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
May1998
Sep1998
Jan1999
May1999
Sep1999
Jan2000
May2000
Sep2000
Jan2001
May2001
Sep2001
Jan2002
May2002
Sep2002
Jan2003
May2003
Sep2003
Jan2004
May2004
Sep2004
Jan2005
May2005
Sep2005
Jan2006
May2006
Sep2006
Jan2007
May2007
Sep2007
Jan2008
May2008
Sep2008
Jan2009
May2009
Sep2009
Jan2010
May2010
Sep2010
Jan2011
May2011
Sep2011
Jan2012
May2012
Sep2012
Jan2013
May2013
Sep2013
Jan2014
May2014
Sep2014
Jan2015
May2015
Sep2015
Jan2016
May2016
-20

18. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 18
EUROPE

19. 19Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
55%37%
5%3%
*%
48%
35%
14%
3%
*%
QA) ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION
QA/B COMBINED) ALL GIVING A VOTING
INTENTION
QA) AS YOU MAY KNOW THE UNITED KINGDOM WILL HAVE A REFERENDUM ON ITS MEMBERSHIP OF
THE EUROPEAN UNION ON THE 23RD OF JUNE THIS YEAR. HOW WILL YOU VOTE ON THE QUESTION –
SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
European Referendum voting intention
REMAIN
LEAVE
UNDECIDED
WOULD NOT VOTE
REFUSED
QB) TO ALL UNDECIDED/REFUSED) WHICH WAY WOULD YOU BE MOST INCLINED TO VOTE?

20. 20Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO REMAIN / LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION OR IS
THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: All expressing an opinion on how they will vote 926 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Have the EU referendum voters decided yet?
57% 58%
63% 64%
69%
73%
40% 39%
35% 33%
28% 25%
3% 3% 2% 3% 3% 2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Oct
2015
Nov
2015
Dec
2015
Jan
2016
Feb
2016
Mar
2016
Apr
2016
May
2016
DEFINITELY DECIDED MAY CHANGE MIND DON’T KNOW

21. 21Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
8
10
8
8
6
5
9
7
7
5
8
9
11
11
14
27
32
13
7
5
6
6
6
7
7
7
7
8
9
9
10
15
28
33
Don’t know
Nothing/none
Regulations by the European Union on British businesses
The impact on British national security
The ability to travel in the European Union
Britain’s status in the world
Cost of EU membership fees
Britain’s relationship with other countries
The number of refugees coming to Britain to claim asylum
Impact on public services/housing
The impact on the rights of British workers
The cost of EU immigration on Britain’s welfare system
The impact on British jobs
Britain’s ability to trade with countries in the European Union
Britain’s ability to make its own laws
The number of immigrants coming into Britain
The impact on Britain’s economy
May-16
Apr-16
LOOKING AHEAD TO THE REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE EUROPEAN UNION ON JUNE 23RD, WHICH,
IF ANY, ISSUES DO YOU THINK WILL BE VERY IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE?
AND WHICH OF THESE ISSUES, IF ANY, THAT YOU MENTIONED IS THE MOST IMPORTANT TO YOU IN HELPING YOU
DECIDE WHICH WAY TO VOTE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Issues important to EU voting
Unprompted – top responses only

22. 22Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE
BETTER OR WORSE FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults, aged 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Impact of Brexit on economy and standard of living
18
39
26
46
11
15
29
35
49
7
16
9
Your own standard of living
Britain's economy over the next ten to twenty years
Britain's economy over the next five years
BETTER
MAKES NO
DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW

23. 23Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
IF BRITAIN VOTES TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION, TO WHAT EXTENT DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE
BETTER OR WORSE FOR EACH OF THE FOLLOWING, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults, aged 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Impact of Brexit on other issues
59
19
29
32
15
32
31
34
20
43
34
26
7
7
8
8
Britain's ability to make decisions in its own best interests
Britain's influence in the world
Britain's national security
Brtain's public services
BETTER
MAKES NO
DIFFERENCE WORSE DON’T KNOW

24. 24Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
HALF SAMPLE SHOWN: THE PRIME MINISTER, DAVID CAMERON, RECENTLY GAVE A SPEECH SAYING THAT A VOTE TO LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION MIGHT PUT AT RISK THE PEACE AND STABILITY OF EUROPE. HOWEVER, BORIS JOHNSON, THE FORMER MAYOR
OF LONDON, HAS SAID THIS IS NOT A POWERFUL ARGUMENT, AND THAT PEACE IN EUROPE IS DOWN TO NATO.
IF BRITAIN LEAVES THE EU, DO YOU THINK IT WOULD BE BETTER OR WORSE FOR PEACE AND STABILITY IN
EUROPE, OR WOULD IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: bases on chart, 14th – 16th May 2016
Peace and stability after Brexit
2%3%
58%
16%
15%
6%
A LOT BETTER A LITTLE BETTER
MAKES NO
DIFFERENCE A LITTLE WORSE A LOT WORSE DON’T KNOW
4%4%
55%
20%
14%
3%
With introduction (483) Without introduction (519)

25. 25Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
WHICH TWO OR THREE OF THE FOLLOWING, IF ANY, DO YOU BELIEVE HAVE MOST IMPACT ON PEOPLE'S
EVERYDAY LIVES?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Impact of different layers of government in everyday life
3
3
5
20
26
29
55
62
Don’t know
National Assembly for Wales
Scottish Parliament
Civil service
European Union
Westminster Parliament
The Government
Local councils

26. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 26
THE ECONOMY

27. 27Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
SINCE IT WAS ELECTED LAST YEAR, DO YOU THINK THE GOVERNMENT HAS DONE A GOOD JOB OR A
BAD JOB AT MANAGING THE ECONOMY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Government’s Management of the Economy
56%
37%
7%
GOOD JOB BAD JOB DON’T KNOW
March 2015 May 2016
42%
47%
11%

28. Document Name Here | Month 2016 | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) 28
OPPOSITION READY FOR
GOVERNMENT

29. 29Political Monitor | May 2016 | Final | Public
DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT…
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: 1,002 British adults 18+, 14th – 16th May 2016
Are Labour and Jeremy Corbyn ready for government?
3
10
12
13
14
12
19
14
7
5
7
5
32
19
24
22
37
46
33
41
7
7
5
6
STRONGLY AGREE TEND TO AGREE NEITHER TEND TO DISAGREE STRONGLY DISAGREE DON’T KNOW
Labour is ready to form
the next government
May ‘16
Jeremy Corbyn is ready
to be Prime Minister
May ‘16
Labour is ready to form the
next government
May ‘11
Ed Miliband is ready to be
Prime Minister
May ‘11
%

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© 2016 Ipsos. All rights reserved. Contains Ipsos' Confidential and Proprietary information
and may not be disclosed or reproduced without the prior written consent of Ipsos.
30
May 2016
POLITICAL MONITOR