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Ipsos MORI Politicial Monitor - July 2019

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The July 2019 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows some good news for the Conservatives as new Prime Minister Boris Johnson takes office. Mr Johnson’s personal poll ratings have improved, especially among his own supporters, and he leads Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on several leadership metrics. However, Mr Johnson’s satisfaction ratings are worse than other Prime Ministers taking office mid-parliament and the public remain divided over potential Brexit outcomes. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have a ten-point lead over Labour among ‘likely voters’, which is partly due to an increased enthusiasm among Conservatives saying they are certain to vote.

Publicado en: Noticias y política
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Ipsos MORI Politicial Monitor - July 2019

  1. 1. 1Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1 July 2019 POLITICAL MONITOR
  2. 2. 2Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 2 July 2019 VOTING INTENTIONS
  3. 3. 3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Voting Intention: July 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26 – 30 July 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 759 Margin of error is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in 10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures. ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +3 CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +10 34% 24% 20% 9% 6% 8% CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEMS BREXIT PARTY GREEN OTHER 31% 28% 19% 8% 6% 9% CONSERVATIVE LABOUR LIB DEM BREXIT PARTY GREEN OTHER
  4. 4. 4Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 May15 Jul15 Sep15 Nov15 Jan16 Mar16 May16 Jul16 Sep16 Nov16 Jan17 Mar17 May17 Jul17 Sep17 Nov17 Jan18 Mar18 May18 Jul18 Sep18 Nov18 Jan19 Mar19 May19 Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) CONSERVATIVE 34% LABOUR 24% GENERAL ELECTION % July ‘19 Johnson as PM (July 19) Jul19
  5. 5. 5Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Jan04 Apr04 Jul04 Oct04 Jan05 Apr05 Jul05 Oct05 Jan06 Apr06 Jul06 Oct06 Jan07 Apr07 Jul07 Oct07 Jan08 Apr08 Jul08 Oct08 Jan09 Apr09 Jul09 Oct09 Jan10 Apr10 Jul10 Oct10 Jan11 Apr11 Jul11 Oct11 Jan12 Apr12 Jul12 Oct12 Jan13 Apr13 Jul13 Oct13 Jan14 Apr14 Jul14 Oct14 Jan15 Apr15 Jul15 Oct15 Jan16 Apr16 Jul16 Oct16 Jan17 Apr17 Jul17 Oct17 Jan18 Apr18 Jul18 Oct18 Jan19 Apr19 Jul19 Miliband elected (Sept 10) Corbyn elected (Sept 15) May as PM (July 16) Johnson as PM (July 19) HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?. Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – July ‘19 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019 Cameron elected (Dec 05) Brown as PM (June 07) CONSERVATIVE 34% LABOUR 24% UKIP 1% GREEN 6% LIB DEM 20% GENERAL ELECTION % July ‘19 THE BREXIT PARTY 9%
  6. 6. 6Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public AND HOW LIKELY WOULD YOU BE TO VOTE IN AN IMMEDIATE GENERAL ELECTION, ON A SCALE OF 1 TO 10, WHERE 10 MEANS YOU WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE, AND 1 MEANS THAT YOU WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN NOT TO VOTE? Certainty to vote Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.200-400 party supporters each month 10/10 CERTAIN TO VOTE IN A GENERAL ELECTION Among Conservative Party supporters 70% 70% June 2019 July 2019 Among Labour Party supporters 61% 82% June 2019 July 2019
  7. 7. 7Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 7 July 2019 SATISFACTION WITH GOVERNMENT AND PARTY LEADERS
  8. 8. 8Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentJo Swinson ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB. AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ LEADER OF THE BREXIT PARTY?. Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: July 2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+ 26-30 July 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied” 69% 12% 19% 28% 44% 28% DISSATISFIED DON’T KNOW SATISFIED +4% SWING FROM JUNE 2019 -1% SWING FROM JUNE 2019 +10% SWING FROM JUNE 2019 NET=-50 NET= 0 NET=-57NET=-7 38% 31% 31% 18% 7% 75 % Nigel Farage 53% 15% 32% NET=-21
  9. 9. 9Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY BORIS JOHNSON IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Boris Johnson Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor July 2019 (Among all) 38% Dissatisfied 31% Don’t know 31% Satisfied NET = -7 Satisfaction Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019 July 2019 (Conservative party supporters) 8% Dissatisfied 25% Don’t know 67% Satisfied NET = +59
  10. 10. 10Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?. Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019) Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month MAY CAMERON BROWN MAJOR BLAIR THATCHER NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER NETSATISFACTION Johnson Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone JOHNSON
  11. 11. 11Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Satisfaction with the Prime Minister Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note:. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone First Ipsos MORI ratings after becoming PM 37% 36% 54% 31% 22% 20% 19% 38% Boris Johnson July 2019 Theresa May August 2016 Gordon Brown July 2007 John Major December 1990 % DISSATISFIED % SATISFIED NET SATISFIED -7 +35 +16 +15 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?
  12. 12. 12Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Net satisfaction with the Prime Minister (1979 – 2019) Margaret Thatcher August 1979 NETSATISFACTION Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Tony Blair May 1997 John Major December 1990 Gordon Brown July 2007 David Cameron June 2010 Theresa May August 2016 Boris Johnson July 2019 +2 +15 +60 +16 +31 +35 HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER? -7
  13. 13. 13Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data was collected within a month of each individual becoming part leader. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone 23% 33% 37% 30% 34% 12% 15% 26% 31% 36% 41% 33% 54% 31% 21% 13% 22% 12% 16% 13% 15% 17% 17% 20% 22% 36% 19% 38% Foot (Nov-80) % DISSATISFIED % SATISFIED NET SATISFIED -7 Satisfaction with party leaders First Ipsos MORI ratings HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR/CONSERVATIVE PARTY? Kinnock (Oct-83) Major (Dec-90) Smith (Jul-92) Blair (Aug-94) Hague (June-97) Duncan-Smith (Sep-01) Howard (Nov-03) Cameron (Jan-06) Brown (Jul-07) Miliband (Oct-10) Corbyn (Sep-15) May (Aug-16) Johnson (Jul-19) +35 -3 +19 +16 +14 +9 0 -1 +18 +18 +15 +20 +2
  14. 14. 14Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY? Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019) Boris Johnson’s Government NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT NETSATISFACTION MAY’S GOV BLAIR’S GOV MAJOR’S GOV CAMERON’S GOV THATCHER’S GOV BROWN’S GOV Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone JOHNSON’S GOV
  15. 15. 15Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY? Satisfaction with the Government Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data was collected within a month of each Prime Minister taking office, apart from Margaret Thatcher who became PM in May 1979 but the first Ipsos MORI political monitor did not run until August 1979. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone First Ipsos MORI ratings 31% 36% 41% 18% 62% 53% 45% 75%Johnson’s Gov. July 2019 May’s Gov. August 2016 Brown’s Gov. July 2007 Major’s Gov. December 1990 % DISSATISFIED % SATISFIED NET SATISFIED -57 -4 -17 -31
  16. 16. 16Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY? Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019) Thatcher’s Gov. August 1979 NETSATISFACTION Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone Blair’s Gov. May 1997 Major’s Gov. December 1990 Brown’s Gov. July 2007 Cameron’s Gov. June 2010 May’s Gov. August 2016 Johnson’s Gov. July 2019 -18 -31 +37 -17 +10 -4 -57
  17. 17. 17Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Jeremy Corbyn Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor July 2019 September 2015 – July 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 . SATISFIED 19% DISSATISFIED 69% ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?. NET = -50 Satisfaction 69% Dissatisfied 12% Don’t know 19% Satisfied % Base: 1,007 British adults 18+ 26-30 July 2019
  18. 18. 18Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?. Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019) Corbyn NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER NETSATISFACTION CORBYN BLAIR SMITH KINNOCK MILLIBAND FOOT CAMERON DUNCAN-SMITH HAGUE HOWARD Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
  19. 19. 19Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Jeremy Corbyn Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 197 Labour supporters 18+ 26-30 July 2019 July 2019 September 2015 – July 2019 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?. NET = +6 Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters 43% Dissatisfied 8% Don’t know 49% Satisfied SATISFIED 49% DISSATISFIED 43% %
  20. 20. 20Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 20 July 2019 ECONOMIC OPTIMISM
  21. 21. 21Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 Jan-07 Jul-07 Dec-07 Apr-08 Aug-08 Dec-08 Apr-09 Aug-09 Dec-09 Apr-10 Sep-10 Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-12 Jan-13 May-13 Sep-13 Jan-14 May-14 Sep-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jun-16 Oct-16 Feb-17 Jul-17 Jan-18 Jun-18 Dec-18 Jun-19 DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?. Economic Optimism Index Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor July 2019 EOI = -40 58% 19% 18% 5% GET WORSE STAY THE SAME Don’t know GET BETTER Stay the same Get worse Improve % January 2007 – July 2019 July ‘19 Base: 1,007 British adults 18+ 26-30 July 2019
  22. 22. 22Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?. Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019 Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month -80 -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 Jan1998 Oct1998 Jul1999 Apr2000 Jan2001 Oct2001 Jul2002 Apr2003 Jan2004 Oct2004 Jul2005 Apr2006 Jan2007 Oct2007 Jul2008 Apr2009 Jan2010 Oct2010 Jul2011 Apr2012 Jan2013 Oct2013 Jul2014 Apr2015 Jan2016 Oct2016 Jul2017 Apr2018 Jan2019 NET OPTIMISM=-40 Jul2019 July ‘19
  23. 23. 23Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 23 July 2019 PARTY LEADERS
  24. 24. 24Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Minister material? 17% 19% 20% 38% 34% 66% 65% 43% Jo Swinson Nigel Farage Jeremy Corbyn Boris Johnson AGREE DISAGREE AGREE NET Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor -5 SWING +7 Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019, Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree” -45 -47 -17 +0.5 -4 SINCE JUNE ‘19 SINCE JUNE ‘19 SINCE JUNE ‘19
  25. 25. 25Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION) ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Minister material? 46% 60% 77% 11% 23% 10% Jo Swinson Jeremy Corbyn Boris Johnson AGREE DISAGREE AGREE NET Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor +67 SWING +18 Base: 323 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters, 181 Lib Dem supporters, 26-30 July 2019, Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree” +37 +35 +3 SINCE JUNE ‘19 SINCE JUNE ‘19 Among own party supporters
  26. 26. 26Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Minister material? BORIS JOHNSON -5% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor -22% -20% -49% -55% -41% -39% -40%-39% -19% -5% 10% 5% -45% -36% -26% -12% -26% -17% 31% 67% -75 -50 -25 0 25 50 75 NET AGREE Jul-14 Jul-15 Jul-16 Apr-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 May-19 Base: c.1,000 British adults, c.200-300 Conservative Party supporters each month AMONG GENERAL PUBLIC Boris Johnson (2014-2019) BORIS JOHNSON +67% AMONG CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS Jun-19 July ‘19 Jul-19
  27. 27. 27Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER? Prime Minister material? JEREMY CORBYN -45% Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor -19% -45% -28% -30% -33% -46% -46% -7% 2% 46% 30% 28% 19% 31% -60 -40 -20 0 20 40 60 NET AGREE Jul-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Base: c.1,000 British adults, c.200-300 Labour Party supporters each month AMONG GENERAL PUBLIC Jeremy Corbyn (2015-2019) JEREMY CORBYN +37% AMONG LABOUR PARTY SUPPORTERS Jun-19 July ‘19 Apr-18 Jul-16 Jul-15 Jul-19
  28. 28. 28Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THE CONSERVATIVE’S … OR LABOUR’S JEREMY CORBYN? Most capable Prime Minister Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019 57% 61% 56% 50% 47% 46% 46% 51% 52% 28% 23% 29% 35% 36% 38% 37% 33% 27% Sept 2015 April 2017 May 2017 June 2017 June 2017 July 2017 Sept 2018 June 2019 July 2019 Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn
  29. 29. 29Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS: Changing party Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 197 Labour party supporters 26-30 July 2019 44% 49% 27% 42% 54% 66% 21% 43% 37% 55% 37% 62% 47% 30% 47% 31% 41% 25% 61% 43% 49% 27% 50% 23% Labour supporters Among all Labour supporters Among all Labour supporters Among all Labour supporters Among all Labour supporters Among all Labour supporters Among all AGREE DISAGREE The Labour Party June 2014 The Labour Party should change its leader before the next General Election JEREMY CORBYN ED MILIBAND October 2015 July 2016 September 2017 July 2018 July 2019 leader
  30. 30. 30Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENTS: Changing party Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019 9% 27% 25% 39% 28% 45% 34% 46% 10% 29% 79% 47% 55% 32% 61% 38% 51% 31% 83% 47% Conservative supporters Among all Conservative supporters Among all Conservative supporters Among all Conservative supporters Among all Conservative supporters Among all AGREE DISAGREE The Conservative Party June 2014 The Conservative Party should change its leader before the next General Election BORIS JOHNSON DAVID CAMERON October 2015 September 2017 July 2018 July 2019 leader THERESA MAY
  31. 31. 31Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019 Changing Party leader PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT: The Labour/Conservative party should change its leader before the next General Election 27% 39% 45% 46% 29% 49% 42% 66% 43% 55% 62% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% % AGREE Corbyn elected (September 2015) May as PM (July 2016) GE2017 (June 2017) Johnson as PM (July 2016) CONSERVATIVE LABOUR Jun-14 Oct-15 Jul-16 Sep-17 Jul-18 Jul-19
  32. 32. 32Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 32 July 2019 BREXIT
  33. 33. 33Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT BORIS JOHNSON WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN UNION LEADERS?* Confidence in Johnson getting a good Brexit deal for Britain 33% 41% 33% 64% 53% 64% CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019 Among all June 2019 Sep 2018 NET CONFIDENT -12 * Previously asked as ‘if Boris Johnson were PM, how confident if at all, would you be that they would get a good deal for Britain in negotiations with EU other European leaders?’ July 2019 57% 62% 60% 40% 33% 37% Among Conservative supporters June 2019 Sep 2018 July 2019 -31 -31 +23 +29 +7
  34. 34. 34Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE CURRENT DEADLINE FOR THE UNITED KINGDOM TO LEAVE THE EUROPEAN UNION IS OCTOBER 31ST THIS YEAR. HOW LIKELY OR UNLIKELY DO YOU THINK IT IS THAT…. Likelihood of the United Kingdom and European Union agreeing on a deal 18% 39% 23% 78% 61% 74% VERY/FAIRLY LIKELY FAIRLY/VERY UNLIKELY Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 566 Non-Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019 NON-CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS AMONG ALL 57% 77% 59% 41% 21% 38% NON-CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS AMONG ALL The UK and the EU will have agreed the terms of the UK’s departure from the European Union in time for the UK to leave by October 31st If the UK and the EU cannot reach an agreement, the UK will still leave the European Union by October 31st
  35. 35. 35Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor IF THE UK AND THE EU CANNOT AGREE A DEAL ON THE TERMS OF THE UK’S DEPARTURE FROM THE EU BY OCTOBER 31ST, WOULD YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE… What should happen if the UK and EU cannot agree a deal? 12% 67% 38% 74% 28% 50% SUPPORT OPPOSE Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters, 26-30 July 2019 LABOUR SUPPORTERS CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS AMONG ALLThe UK leaving the European Union without a deal, sometimes referred to as a ‘no deal Brexit’ 75% 34% 50% 15% 62% 37% LABOUR SUPPORTERS CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS AMONG ALL 87% 30% 56% 8% 55% 29% LABOUR SUPPORTERS CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS AMONG ALL Delaying the UK leaving the EU until a deal is agreed Holding a General Election to elect a new Parliament
  36. 36. 36Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor HOW WELL, IF AT ALL , WOULD YOU SAY THAT THE FOLLOWING PEOPLE KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE UK LEAVES THE EUROPEAN UNION WITHOUT A DEAL, SOMETIMES REFERRED TO AS A ‘NO-DEAL BREXIT’? How well do people know what will happen if the UK leaves the European Union without a deal? VERY/FAIRLY WELL NOT/NOT AT ALL WELL Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019 35% 40% 17% 40% 61% 57% 79% 54% You personally The British public as a whole The UK government UK politicians as a whole
  37. 37. 37Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 37 October 2018 Ipsos MORI July 2019 Political Monitor Gideon Skinner Research Director gideon.skinner@ipsos.com Keiran Pedley Research Director keiran.pedley@ipsos.com Glenn Gottfried Research Manager glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com For more information

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