The July 2019 Ipsos MORI Political Monitor shows some good news for the Conservatives as new Prime Minister Boris Johnson takes office. Mr Johnson’s personal poll ratings have improved, especially among his own supporters, and he leads Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn on several leadership metrics. However, Mr Johnson’s satisfaction ratings are worse than other Prime Ministers taking office mid-parliament and the public remain divided over potential Brexit outcomes. Meanwhile, the Conservatives have a ten-point lead over Labour among ‘likely voters’, which is partly due to an increased enthusiasm among Conservatives saying they are certain to vote.

1. 1Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 1
July 2019
POLITICAL MONITOR

2. 2Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 2
July 2019
VOTING
INTENTIONS

3. 3Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Voting Intention: July 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26 – 30 July 2019; Headline Voting Intention: all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in General Elections = 759 Margin of error
is displayed at +/- 4% All polls are subject to a wide range of potential sources of error. On the basis of the historical record of the polls at recent general elections, there is a 9 in
10 chance that the true value of a party’s support lies within 4 points of the estimates provided by this poll, and a 2 in 3 chance that they lie within 2 points. This is especially
important to keep in mind when calculating party lead figures.
ALL GIVING A VOTING INTENTION
HEADLINE VOTING INTENTION
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +3
CONSERVATIVE LEAD = +10
34%
24%
20%
9%
6%
8%
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEMS
BREXIT PARTY
GREEN
OTHER
31%
28%
19%
8%
6%
9%
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
LIB DEM
BREXIT PARTY
GREEN
OTHER

4. 4Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Headline voting intention: Since 2015 General Election
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
May15
Jul15
Sep15
Nov15
Jan16
Mar16
May16
Jul16
Sep16
Nov16
Jan17
Mar17
May17
Jul17
Sep17
Nov17
Jan18
Mar18
May18
Jul18
Sep18
Nov18
Jan19
Mar19
May19
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
CONSERVATIVE 34%
LABOUR 24%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
July ‘19
Johnson as PM
(July 19)
Jul19

5. 5Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan04
Apr04
Jul04
Oct04
Jan05
Apr05
Jul05
Oct05
Jan06
Apr06
Jul06
Oct06
Jan07
Apr07
Jul07
Oct07
Jan08
Apr08
Jul08
Oct08
Jan09
Apr09
Jul09
Oct09
Jan10
Apr10
Jul10
Oct10
Jan11
Apr11
Jul11
Oct11
Jan12
Apr12
Jul12
Oct12
Jan13
Apr13
Jul13
Oct13
Jan14
Apr14
Jul14
Oct14
Jan15
Apr15
Jul15
Oct15
Jan16
Apr16
Jul16
Oct16
Jan17
Apr17
Jul17
Oct17
Jan18
Apr18
Jul18
Oct18
Jan19
Apr19
Jul19
Miliband elected
(Sept 10)
Corbyn elected
(Sept 15)
May as PM
(July 16)
Johnson as PM
(July 19)
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?.
Headline voting intention: January ‘04 – July ‘19
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c. 800 British adults; Prior to July 2015 the turnout filter is “All certain to vote”; From July 2015 turnout filter is “all 9/10 certain to vote and always/usually/it depends vote in
General Elections. Note small change in methodology in approach to prompting Brexit Party in July 2019
Cameron elected
(Dec 05)
Brown as PM
(June 07)
CONSERVATIVE 34%
LABOUR 24%
UKIP 1%
GREEN 6%
LIB DEM 20%
GENERAL
ELECTION
%
July ‘19
THE BREXIT PARTY 9%

6. 6Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
AND HOW LIKELY WOULD YOU BE TO VOTE
IN AN IMMEDIATE GENERAL ELECTION, ON A
SCALE OF 1 TO 10, WHERE 10 MEANS YOU
WOULD BE ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN TO VOTE,
AND 1 MEANS THAT YOU WOULD BE
ABSOLUTELY CERTAIN NOT TO VOTE?
Certainty to vote
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c.200-400 party supporters each month
10/10 CERTAIN TO VOTE IN A GENERAL ELECTION
Among Conservative Party supporters
70%
70%
June 2019
July 2019
Among Labour Party supporters
61%
82%
June 2019
July 2019

7. 7Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 7
July 2019
SATISFACTION
WITH GOVERNMENT
AND PARTY
LEADERS

8. 8Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn The GovernmentJo Swinson
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY…. IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS/HER JOB.
AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY/LEADER OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS/ LEADER OF THE BREXIT PARTY?.
Satisfaction with leaders and the Government: July 2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+ 26-30 July 2019. Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and
% “dissatisfied”
69%
12%
19%
28%
44%
28%
DISSATISFIED
DON’T KNOW
SATISFIED
+4% SWING
FROM JUNE 2019
-1% SWING
FROM JUNE 2019
+10% SWING
FROM JUNE 2019
NET=-50 NET= 0 NET=-57NET=-7
38%
31%
31%
18%
7%
75
%
Nigel Farage
53%
15%
32%
NET=-21

9. 9Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY BORIS JOHNSON IS DOING HIS JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Boris Johnson
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
July 2019 (Among all)
38% Dissatisfied
31% Don’t know
31% Satisfied
NET = -7
Satisfaction
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019
July 2019 (Conservative party supporters)
8% Dissatisfied
25% Don’t know
67% Satisfied
NET = +59

10. 10Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?.
Net satisfaction with Prime Ministers (1979-2019)
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
MAY
CAMERON
BROWN
MAJOR
BLAIR
THATCHER
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING PRIME MINISTER
NETSATISFACTION
Johnson
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
JOHNSON

11. 11Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Satisfaction with the Prime Minister
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note:. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
First Ipsos MORI ratings after becoming PM
37%
36%
54%
31%
22%
20%
19%
38%
Boris Johnson
July 2019
Theresa May
August 2016
Gordon Brown
July 2007
John Major
December 1990
% DISSATISFIED % SATISFIED
NET
SATISFIED
-7
+35
+16
+15
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?

12. 12Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Net satisfaction with the Prime Minister (1979 – 2019)
Margaret Thatcher
August 1979
NETSATISFACTION
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Tony Blair
May 1997
John Major
December 1990
Gordon Brown
July 2007
David Cameron
June 2010
Theresa May
August 2016
Boris Johnson
July 2019
+2
+15
+60
+16
+31
+35
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER?
-7

13. 13Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note: Data was collected within a month of each individual becoming part leader. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February
2008 was via telephone
23%
33%
37%
30%
34%
12%
15%
26%
31%
36%
41%
33%
54%
31%
21%
13%
22%
12%
16%
13%
15%
17%
17%
20%
22%
36%
19%
38%
Foot (Nov-80)
% DISSATISFIED % SATISFIED
NET
SATISFIED
-7
Satisfaction with party leaders First Ipsos MORI ratings
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS PRIME MINISTER /LEADER OF THE
LABOUR/CONSERVATIVE PARTY?
Kinnock (Oct-83)
Major (Dec-90)
Smith (Jul-92)
Blair (Aug-94)
Hague (June-97)
Duncan-Smith (Sep-01)
Howard (Nov-03)
Cameron (Jan-06)
Brown (Jul-07)
Miliband (Oct-10)
Corbyn (Sep-15)
May (Aug-16)
Johnson (Jul-19)
+35
-3
+19
+16
+14
+9
0
-1
+18
+18
+15
+20
+2

14. 14Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019)
Boris Johnson’s Government
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER ASSUMING GOVERNMENT
NETSATISFACTION
MAY’S GOV
BLAIR’S GOV
MAJOR’S GOV
CAMERON’S GOV
THATCHER’S GOV
BROWN’S GOV
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
JOHNSON’S GOV

15. 15Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Satisfaction with the Government
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note: Data was collected within a month of each Prime Minister taking office, apart from Margaret Thatcher who became PM in May 1979 but the first Ipsos MORI political monitor did not run
until August 1979. Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
First Ipsos MORI ratings
31%
36%
41%
18%
62%
53%
45%
75%Johnson’s Gov.
July 2019
May’s Gov.
August 2016
Brown’s Gov.
July 2007
Major’s Gov.
December 1990
% DISSATISFIED % SATISFIED
NET
SATISFIED
-57
-4
-17
-31

16. 16Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY THE GOVERNMENT IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY?
Net satisfaction with the Government (1979 – 2019)
Thatcher’s Gov.
August 1979
NETSATISFACTION
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone
Blair’s Gov.
May 1997
Major’s Gov.
December 1990
Brown’s Gov.
July 2007
Cameron’s Gov.
June 2010
May’s Gov.
August 2016
Johnson’s Gov.
July 2019
-18
-31
+37
-17
+10
-4
-57

17. 17Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Jeremy Corbyn
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
July 2019 September 2015 – July 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
.
SATISFIED 19%
DISSATISFIED 69%
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = -50
Satisfaction
69% Dissatisfied
12% Don’t know
19% Satisfied
%
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+ 26-30 July 2019

18. 18Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE … PARTY?.
Net satisfaction with Opposition Leaders (1980 – 2019)
Corbyn
NUMBER OF MONTHS AFTER BECOMING OPPOSITION LEADER
NETSATISFACTION
CORBYN
BLAIR
SMITH
KINNOCK
MILLIBAND
FOOT
CAMERON
DUNCAN-SMITH
HAGUE
HOWARD
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
Note: Data collected prior to February 2008 was collected via face-to-face methodology; data collected from February 2008 was via telephone

19. 19Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Jeremy Corbyn
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 197 Labour supporters 18+ 26-30 July 2019
July 2019 September 2015 – July 2019
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
Sep-15
Dec-15
Mar-16
Jun-16
Sep-16
Dec-16
Mar-17
Jun-17
Sep-17
Dec-17
Mar-18
Jun-18
Sep-18
Dec-18
Mar-19
Jun-19
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY JEREMY CORBYN IS DOING HIS JOB AS LEADER OF THE LABOUR PARTY?.
NET = +6
Satisfaction amongst Labour supporters
43% Dissatisfied
8% Don’t know
49% Satisfied
SATISFIED 49%
DISSATISFIED 43%
%

20. 20Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 20
July 2019
ECONOMIC
OPTIMISM

21. 21Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Jan-07
Jul-07
Dec-07
Apr-08
Aug-08
Dec-08
Apr-09
Aug-09
Dec-09
Apr-10
Sep-10
Jan-11
May-11
Sep-11
Jan-12
May-12
Sep-12
Jan-13
May-13
Sep-13
Jan-14
May-14
Sep-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Oct-15
Feb-16
Jun-16
Oct-16
Feb-17
Jul-17
Jan-18
Jun-18
Dec-18
Jun-19
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
July 2019
EOI = -40
58%
19%
18%
5%
GET WORSE
STAY THE SAME
Don’t know
GET BETTER
Stay the same
Get worse
Improve
%
January 2007 – July 2019
July ‘19
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+ 26-30 July 2019

22. 22Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
DO YOU THINK THAT THE GENERAL ECONOMIC CONDITION OF THE COUNTRY WILL IMPROVE, STAY THE SAME OR GET WORSE
OVER THE NEXT 12 MONTHS?.
Economic Optimism Index – 1998-2019
Source: Ipsos MORI Political MonitorBase: c.1,000 British adults each month
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
Jan1998
Oct1998
Jul1999
Apr2000
Jan2001
Oct2001
Jul2002
Apr2003
Jan2004
Oct2004
Jul2005
Apr2006
Jan2007
Oct2007
Jul2008
Apr2009
Jan2010
Oct2010
Jul2011
Apr2012
Jan2013
Oct2013
Jul2014
Apr2015
Jan2016
Oct2016
Jul2017
Apr2018
Jan2019
NET OPTIMISM=-40
Jul2019
July ‘19

23. 23Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 23
July 2019
PARTY LEADERS

24. 24Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
Prime Minister material?
17%
19%
20%
38%
34%
66%
65%
43%
Jo Swinson
Nigel Farage
Jeremy Corbyn
Boris Johnson
AGREE DISAGREE AGREE
NET
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-5
SWING
+7
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019, Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree”
-45
-47
-17
+0.5
-4
SINCE
JUNE ‘19
SINCE
JUNE ‘19
SINCE
JUNE ‘19

25. 25Doc Name | Month Year | Version 1 | Public | Internal Use Only | Confidential | Strictly Confidential (DELETE CLASSIFICATION)
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT …HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
Prime Minister material?
46%
60%
77%
11%
23%
10%
Jo Swinson
Jeremy Corbyn
Boris Johnson
AGREE DISAGREE AGREE
NET
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
+67
SWING
+18
Base: 323 Conservative party supporters, 197 Labour party supporters, 181 Lib Dem supporters, 26-30 July 2019, Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “agree” and % “disagree”
+37
+35
+3
SINCE
JUNE ‘19
SINCE
JUNE ‘19
Among own party supporters

26. 26Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
Prime Minister material?
BORIS JOHNSON -5%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-22% -20%
-49%
-55%
-41%
-39% -40%-39%
-19%
-5%
10%
5%
-45%
-36%
-26%
-12%
-26%
-17%
31%
67%
-75
-50
-25
0
25
50
75
NET AGREE
Jul-14
Jul-15
Jul-16
Apr-18
Jul-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
May-19
Base: c.1,000 British adults, c.200-300 Conservative Party supporters each month
AMONG GENERAL PUBLIC
Boris Johnson (2014-2019)
BORIS JOHNSON +67%
AMONG CONSERVATIVE
SUPPORTERS
Jun-19
July ‘19
Jul-19

27. 27Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
ON BALANCE, DO YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE THAT … HAS WHAT IT TAKES TO BE A GOOD PRIME MINISTER?
Prime Minister material?
JEREMY CORBYN -45%
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
-19%
-45%
-28%
-30%
-33%
-46% -46%
-7%
2%
46%
30%
28%
19%
31%
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
NET AGREE
Jul-18
Sep-18
Mar-19
Base: c.1,000 British adults, c.200-300 Labour Party supporters each month
AMONG GENERAL PUBLIC
Jeremy Corbyn (2015-2019)
JEREMY CORBYN +37%
AMONG LABOUR PARTY
SUPPORTERS
Jun-19
July ‘19
Apr-18
Jul-16
Jul-15
Jul-19

28. 28Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
WHO DO YOU THINK WOULD MAKE THE MOST CAPABLE PRIME MINISTER, THE CONSERVATIVE’S … OR LABOUR’S JEREMY CORBYN?
Most capable Prime Minister
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019
57%
61%
56%
50%
47%
46%
46%
51%
52%
28%
23%
29%
35%
36%
38%
37%
33%
27%
Sept 2015
April 2017
May 2017
June 2017
June 2017
July 2017
Sept 2018
June 2019
July 2019
Boris Johnson Jeremy Corbyn
Theresa May Jeremy Corbyn
David Cameron Jeremy Corbyn

29. 29Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT
ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE
FOLLOWING STATEMENTS:
Changing party
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 197 Labour party supporters 26-30 July 2019
44%
49%
27%
42%
54%
66%
21%
43%
37%
55%
37%
62%
47%
30%
47%
31%
41%
25%
61%
43%
49%
27%
50%
23%
Labour supporters
Among all
Labour supporters
Among all
Labour supporters
Among all
Labour supporters
Among all
Labour supporters
Among all
Labour supporters
Among all
AGREE DISAGREE
The Labour Party
June 2014
The Labour Party should
change its leader before the
next General Election
JEREMY CORBYN
ED MILIBAND
October 2015
July 2016
September 2017
July 2018
July 2019
leader

30. 30Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT
ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE
FOLLOWING STATEMENTS:
Changing party
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019
9%
27%
25%
39%
28%
45%
34%
46%
10%
29%
79%
47%
55%
32%
61%
38%
51%
31%
83%
47%
Conservative supporters
Among all
Conservative supporters
Among all
Conservative supporters
Among all
Conservative supporters
Among all
Conservative supporters
Among all
AGREE DISAGREE
The Conservative Party
June 2014
The Conservative Party should
change its leader before the
next General Election
BORIS JOHNSON
DAVID CAMERON
October 2015
September 2017
July 2018
July 2019
leader
THERESA MAY

31. 31Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019
Changing Party leader
PLEASE TELL ME TO WHAT EXTENT, IF AT ALL, YOU AGREE OR DISAGREE WITH THE FOLLOWING STATEMENT:
The Labour/Conservative party should change its leader before the next General Election
27%
39%
45% 46%
29%
49%
42%
66%
43%
55%
62%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
% AGREE
Corbyn elected
(September 2015)
May as PM
(July 2016)
GE2017
(June 2017)
Johnson as PM
(July 2016)
CONSERVATIVE
LABOUR
Jun-14
Oct-15
Jul-16
Sep-17
Jul-18
Jul-19

32. 32Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 32
July 2019
BREXIT

33. 33Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT
ALL, YOU ARE THAT BORIS JOHNSON
WILL GET A GOOD DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN
NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN
UNION LEADERS?*
Confidence in Johnson
getting a good Brexit
deal for Britain
33%
41%
33%
64%
53%
64%
CONFIDENT NOT CONFIDENT
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019
Among all
June
2019
Sep
2018
NET
CONFIDENT
-12
* Previously asked as ‘if Boris Johnson were PM, how confident if
at all, would you be that they would get a good deal for Britain
in negotiations with EU other European leaders?’
July
2019
57%
62%
60%
40%
33%
37%
Among Conservative supporters
June
2019
Sep
2018
July
2019
-31
-31
+23
+29
+7

34. 34Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THE
CURRENT DEADLINE FOR THE
UNITED KINGDOM TO LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION IS OCTOBER
31ST THIS YEAR. HOW LIKELY OR
UNLIKELY DO YOU THINK IT IS
THAT….
Likelihood of the
United Kingdom and
European Union
agreeing on a deal
18%
39%
23%
78%
61%
74%
VERY/FAIRLY LIKELY FAIRLY/VERY UNLIKELY
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party supporters, 566 Non-Conservative party supporters, 26-30 July 2019
NON-CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS
CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS
AMONG ALL
57%
77%
59%
41%
21%
38%
NON-CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS
CONSERVATIVE PARTY SUPPORTERS
AMONG ALL
The UK and the EU will
have agreed the terms of
the UK’s departure from
the European Union in time
for the UK to leave by
October 31st
If the UK and the EU
cannot reach an
agreement, the UK will still
leave the European Union
by October 31st

35. 35Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
IF THE UK AND THE EU CANNOT
AGREE A DEAL ON THE TERMS OF
THE UK’S DEPARTURE FROM THE EU
BY OCTOBER 31ST, WOULD YOU
SUPPORT OR OPPOSE…
What should happen
if the UK and EU
cannot agree a deal?
12%
67%
38%
74%
28%
50%
SUPPORT OPPOSE
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 323 Conservative party
supporters, 197 Labour party supporters, 26-30 July 2019
LABOUR SUPPORTERS
CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS
AMONG ALLThe UK leaving the
European Union without a
deal, sometimes referred to
as a ‘no deal Brexit’
75%
34%
50%
15%
62%
37%
LABOUR SUPPORTERS
CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS
AMONG ALL
87%
30%
56%
8%
55%
29%
LABOUR SUPPORTERS
CONSERVATIVE SUPPORTERS
AMONG ALL
Delaying the UK leaving
the EU until a deal is
agreed
Holding a General Election
to elect a new Parliament

36. 36Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | Public
Source: Ipsos MORI Political Monitor
HOW WELL, IF AT ALL , WOULD YOU
SAY THAT THE FOLLOWING PEOPLE
KNOW WHAT WILL HAPPEN IF THE
UK LEAVES THE EUROPEAN UNION
WITHOUT A DEAL, SOMETIMES
REFERRED TO AS A ‘NO-DEAL
BREXIT’?
How well do people
know what will
happen if the UK
leaves the European
Union without a deal?
VERY/FAIRLY WELL NOT/NOT AT ALL WELL
Base: 1,007 British adults 18+, 26-30 July 2019
35%
40%
17%
40%
61%
57%
79%
54%
You personally
The British public
as a whole
The UK
government
UK politicians
as a whole

37. 37Ipsos MORI Political Monitor | PublicIpsos MORI Political Monitor | Public 37
October 2018
Ipsos MORI
July 2019 Political Monitor
Gideon Skinner
Research Director
gideon.skinner@ipsos.com
Keiran Pedley
Research Director
keiran.pedley@ipsos.com
Glenn Gottfried
Research Manager
glenn.gottfried@ipsos.com
For more information