With fewer than six months to go before Scotland goes to the polls to elect a new Holyrood Parliament, our new poll for STV News shows the SNP still significantly ahead while the Scottish Conservatives have gained ground.

1. November 2015
SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION
MONITOR

2. VOTING
INTENTIONS

3. 3
Scottish Parliament Voting Intention
(Constituency)
Base: All giving a voting intention = 928 . All likely to vote = 756. Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th
November 2015
HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR FIRST VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH
PARLIAMENT TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
52%
20%
17%
7% 3%
2%
All giving a voting intention All likely to vote
SNP lead +32 SNP lead +30
SNP
LABOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LIB DEM
GREEN
OTHER
50%
20%
18%
7%
3%
2%

4. 4
Scottish Parliament Voting Intention (Party List)
HOW WOULD YOU USE YOUR SECOND VOTE IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH
PARLIAMENT TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
48%
20%
16%
8%
7%
3%
All giving a voting intention All likely to vote
SNP lead +28 SNP lead +27
SNP
LABOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LIB DEM
GREEN
OTHER
46%
19%
16%
8%
7%
3%
Base: All giving a voting intention = 928 . All likely to vote = 748. Data collected among 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th
November 2015

5. 5
Holyrood- Constituency vote trend
IF THERE WERE ELECTIONS TO THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT TOMORROW, HOW WOULD YOU
USE YOUR FIRST VOTE?
Base: All certain to vote. Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Labour SNP Conservative Liberal Democrats Other (including Greens)

6. SATISFACTION WITH PARTY LEADERS

7. 7
DAVID CAMERON NICOLA STURGEON JOHN SWINNEY
+4%
swing from August
-9%
swing from August
+1%
swing from August
-36 Net 39 Net 19% Net
SATISFIED 30% SATISFIED 67% SATISFIED 49%
DISSATISFIED 66% DISSATISFIED 28% DISSATISFIED 30%
Satisfaction with Prime Minister, First Minister
and Deputy First Minister
Base: 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th November 2015
Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS RUNNING THE COUNTRY / DOING HIS JOB
AS PRIME MINISTER / FIRST MINISTER/ DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER
0
-100
+100
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

8. 8
KEZIA DUGDALE RUTH DAVIDSON WILLIE RENNIE PATRICK HARVIE
+3%
swing from August
+5%
swing from August
+2%
swing from August
-7%
swing from August
4 Net 14 Net -3 Net 24 Net
SATISFIED 38% SATISFIED 47% SATISFIED 28% SATISFIED 42%
DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 33% DISSATISFIED 31% DISSATISFIED 18%
Satisfaction with Scottish party leaders
HOW SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED ARE YOU WITH THE WAY … IS / DOING HER JOB
AS FIRST MINISTER /HIS JOB AS DEPUTY FIRST MINISTER/ HIS/HER JOB AS LEADER OF THE XXXX PARTY?
0
-100
+100
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Base: 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th November 2015
Swing is calculated as the average of change in % “satisfied” and % “dissatisfied”

9. 9
Net Satisfaction with party leaders trend
ARE YOU SATISFIED OR DISSATISFIED WITH THE WAY … IS DOING HIS/HER JOB AS FIRST
MINISTER//PRIME MINISTER/LEADER OF SCOTTISH LABOUR/THE SCOTTISH LIBERAL
DEMOCRATS/THE SCOTTISH CONSERVATIVES?
Base: All . Data collected among c1,000 Scottish adults.
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
Aug-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Jun-12 Oct-12 Feb-13 May-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Feb-14 May-14 Aug-14 Oct-14 Jan-15 Apr-15 Aug-15 Nov-15
Ruth Davidson Willie Rennie Patrick Harvie David Cameron
Nicola Sturgeon Kezia Dugdale John Swinney
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor

10. THE EUROPEAN UNION

11. 11
EU Referendum:
Should the UK remain a member of the EU?
SHOULD THE UNITED KINGDOM REMAIN A MEMBER OF THE EUROPEAN UNION OR LEAVE THE
EUROPEAN UNION?
Base: 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th November 2015. Source:
Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Source: Ipsos MORI
SCOTLAND
REMAIN LEAVE DON’T KNOW
22%
65%
13%
GB
36%
12%
52%
Base: 498 British adults 18+, 17th -19th October 2015. Source Ipsos
MORI Political Monitor

12. 12
Have voters decided yet?
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017.
Source: Ipsos MORI
November 2015
DEFINITELY DECIDED
MAY CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
65%
33%
2%
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO [REFERENDUM VOTE AT EUVOTE1 – REMAIN/LEAVE] THE EUROPEAN UNION
OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Base: 902 Scottish adults 16+ giving an opinion, 9th – 16th November 2015

13. 13
Have voters decided yet?
AS YOU MAY KNOW, THERE WILL BE A REFERENDUM ON BRITAIN’S MEMBERSHIP OF THE
EUROPEAN UNION BY 2017.
Source: Ipsos MORI
DEFINITELY DECIDED
MAY CHANGE MIND
DON’T KNOW
66%
32%
1%
HAVE YOU DEFINITELY DECIDED TO VOTE FOR BRITAIN TO [REFERENDUM VOTE AT Q9A/B – REMAIN/LEAVE] THE EUROPEAN UNION
OR IS THERE A CHANCE YOU MAY CHANGE YOUR MIND BEFORE YOU VOTE?
Data collected among Scottish adults 16+ 9th – 16th November 2015
62%
35%
2%
Remain a member of EU Leave EU
Base: All saying that they would vote to remain in the EU (677) Base: All saying that they would vote to leave the EU (225)

14. 14
3%
26%
37%
30%
5%
Confidence in David Cameron’s ability to
get a good EU deal for Britain
PLEASE TELL ME HOW CONFIDENT, IF AT ALL, YOU ARE THAT DAVID CAMERON WILL GET A GOOD
DEAL FOR BRITAIN IN NEGOTIATIONS WITH OTHER EUROPEAN LEADERS?
VERY CONFIDENT
FAIRLY CONFIDENT
NOT VERY
CONFIDENT
NOT AT ALL
CONFIDENT
NO OPINION
Source: Ipsos MORI
Base: 1,029 Scottish adults 16+, 9th-16th November 2015

15. 15
Technical details
This presents the topline results from Scotland.
Results are based on a survey of 1,029 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
Fieldwork dates: 9th - 16th November 2015.
Data are weighted by: age, sex and working status using census data; tenure using SHS data; and
public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly Public Sector Employment
series data
Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the
exclusion of “don’t know” categories
Results are based on all respondents (1,029) unless otherwise stated.
Contact us: Mark Diffley: mark.diffley@ipsos.com;
0131 220 5699