Scots are gloomy about Brexit’s likely impact on the economy - but more oppose holding another independence referendum in the next three years than support it

1. March 2018
SCOTTISH PUBLIC OPINION
MONITOR

2. BREXIT

3. DO YOU THINK THAT THE UK’S / SCOTLAND’S ECONOMY WILL BE BETTER OFF OR WORSE OFF AS A
RESULT OF LEAVING THE EU, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
14%
15%
61%
10%
BETTER OFF
WILL MAKE NO
DIFFERENCE
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
12%
18%
61%
8%
UK’s economy Scotland’s economy
Base: All
Data collected among 1,050 Scottish adults aged 16+, 5th – 11th March 2018
Perceived economic impact of Brexit
WORSE OFF
DON’T KNOW

4. DO YOU THINK THAT THE UK’S /SCOTLAND’S ECONOMY WILL BE BETTER OFF OR WORSE OFF AS A
RESULT OF LEAVING THE EU, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
UK’s economy
Perceived economic impact of Brexit - by age
14%
16%
10%
18%
7%
14%
16%
19%
70%
60%
68%
50%
9%
10%
6%
13%
16-24
25-34
35-54
55+
Scotland’s economy
Base: All
Data collected among 1,050 Scottish adults aged 16+, 5th – 11th March 2018
5%
17%
9%
15%
16%
15%
16%
22%
71%
61%
70%
49%
7%
6%
4%
14%
16-24
25-34
35-54
55+
Better off Make no difference Worse off Don't know

5. DO YOU THINK THAT THE UK’S /SCOTLAND’S ECONOMY WILL BE BETTER OFF OR WORSE OFF AS A
RESULT OF LEAVING THE EU, OR WILL IT MAKE NO DIFFERENCE?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Perceived economic impact of Brexit –
by party preference
9%
10%
13%
11%
73%
73%
6%
7%
Base: All likely to vote in an immediate UK General Election: (785)
Data collected among 1,050 Scottish adults aged 16+, 5th – 11th March 2018
30%
23%
25%
30%
34%
38%
11%
9%
Better off Make no difference Worse off Don't know
Scottish
National Party
13%
12%
8%
10%
71%
71%
8%
6%
Scottish
Conservatives
Scottish
Labour
UK / Scottish
economy

6. INDYREF2

7. DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE HOLDING ANOTHER REFERENDUM ON SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
WITHIN THE NEXT THREE YEARS?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion MonitorBase: All.
Data collected among 1,050 Scottish adults aged 16+, 5th – 11th March 2018
30%
11%
8%10%
37%
3%
Strongly support Tend to support Neither support nor oppose
Tend to oppose Strongly oppose Don't know
Support:
41%
Oppose:
47%
Indyref2?

8. Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
28%
43%
57%
58%
6%
8%
9%
11%
60%
47%
31%
31%
55+
35-54
25-34
16-24
Support Neither support nor oppose Oppose
Indyref2? – by age
DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE HOLDING ANOTHER REFERENDUM ON SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
WITHIN NEXT THREE YEARS?
Base: All.
Data collected among 1,050 Scottish adults aged 16+, 5th – 11th March 2018

9. DO YOU SUPPORT OR OPPOSE HOLDING ANOTHER REFERENDUM ON SCOTTISH INDEPENDENCE
WITHIN THE NEXT THREE YEARS?
WHICH OF THESE COMES CLOSEST TO YOUR VIEW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Base: All.
Data collected among 1,050 Scottish adults aged 16+, 5th – 11th March 2018
Indyref2 and Brexit
3%
8%
1%
19%
22%
Don't know
Oppose second referendum
Neither support nor oppose second
referendum
Support second referendum, but unsure if
because of Brexit
Supported second referendum anyway -
Brexit has made no difference to my view
Support second referendum because of Brexit
41%
47%

10. IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW
WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION:
SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
YES
NO
UNDECIDED/
REFUSED
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Support for independence
All
44%
49%
7%
All likely to vote
46%
50%
4%
Base: All (1,050) ; All likely to vote (908).
Data collected among 1,050 Scottish adults aged 16+, 5th – 11th March 2018

11. IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW
WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION:
SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
Base: All likely to vote (908).
Data collected among 1,050 Scottish adults aged 16+, 5th – 11th March 2018
Support by gender
49%
49%
2%
43%
50%
7%
YES
NO
UNDECIDED/
REFUSED

12. IF A REFERENDUM WERE HELD TOMORROW ABOUT SCOTLAND’S CONSTITUTIONAL FUTURE, HOW
WOULD YOU VOTE IN RESPONSE TO THE FOLLOWING QUESTION: SHOULD SCOTLAND BE AN
INDEPENDENT COUNTRY?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
16-24 25-34
35-54 55+
Support by age
Base: All likely to vote (908)
Data collected among 1,050 Scottish adults aged 16+, 5th – 11th March 2018
57%
42%
1%
59%
37%
4%
48%
46%
6%
35%
62%
3%
YES
NO
UNDECIDED

13. VOTING INTENTION

14. General Election – Voting Intention
Base: All giving a voting intention (925); all giving a voting intention and certain’ likely to vote (785).
Data collected among 1,050 Scottish adults aged 16+, 5th – 11th March 2018
HOW WOULD YOU VOTE IF THERE WERE A UK GENERAL ELECTION TOMORROW?
Source: Ipsos MORI Scottish Public Opinion Monitor
38%
28%
23%
7%
4%
All giving a voting intention All giving a voting intention
and likely to vote
SNP lead +10 SNP lead +13
SNP
LABOUR
CONSERVATIVE
LIB DEM
OTHER
39%
26%
25%
6%
4%

15. Technical details
This presents the topline results from Scotland.
Results are based on a survey of 1,050 respondents (adults aged 16+) conducted by telephone
Fieldwork dates: 5th – 11th March 2018
Data are weighted by: age, sex, educational qualifications and working status using census data;
tenure using SHS data; and public-private sector employment using Scottish Government Quarterly
Public Sector Employment series data.
Where results do not sum to 100%, this may be due to computer rounding, multiple responses, or the
exclusion of “don’t know” categories
Results are based on all respondents (1,050) unless otherwise stated.
Our sample now includes a small proportion of mobile numbers as well as landline.
Please note that the ‘margin of error’ on these figures is c.+3-5% for each figure. This means that a
party share figure of 30% could actually fall anywhere between 26% and 34%, though it is more likely to
fall at 30% than at the extreme ends of this range.
Contact us: Emily Gray: Emily.Gray@ipsos.com / 0131 226 8672