A new survey of Welsh Assembly Members (AMs) conducted by Ipsos MORI finds that two-thirds (65%) of AMs believe that Scottish independence would lead to greater powers being granted to the Senedd. AMs are divided as to whether Scottish independence would mean more or less support amongst the general public towards Wales following suit and becoming an independent country. While a third (35%) of AMs believe a ‘yes’ vote in Scotland would lead to increased calls for Welsh independence, a quarter (23%) believe support would go down following Scottish independence.

1. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Key Influencer TrackinMg e mbers Survey 2014
Welsh Assembly Members
Survey 2014
August 2014
Press-release
Implications of Scottish independence on Wales

2. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014
Methodology and publication of results
 This presents some findings of the 2014 study of members of the National Assembly for Wales, part of Ipsos MORI’s programme of regular multi-sponsored
studies among key audiences
 Methodology details:
o Fieldwork dates: 5 June – 12 August 2014
o Total number of respondents: 25 (Labour 7, Conservative 8, Plaid Cymru 6 and Liberal Democrats 4)
o All Assembly Members (AMs) were contacted to ensure that those interviewed closely represent the profile of the National Assembly
o Interviews were conducted face-to-face
 The total sample interviewed is closely representative of the Senedd. Based on those asked each question, data have been weighted to reflect the true
balance by party
 Given the small base sizes throughout the report, results should be regarded as indicative rather than fully representative
Methodology
Any publication of the results contained within this document should make reference to:
 The survey was conducted by Ipsos MORI
 The dates of fieldwork were 5 June – 12 August 2014
 The sample size was 25 Assembly Members
 All interviews were conducted face-to-face with Assembly Members
Publication of results

3. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014
Implications of Scottish independence on Wales –
summary of key findings
 Two-thirds (65%) of AMs believe that Scottish independence would lead to greater powers than currently proposed for the National Assembly for
Wales. Labour and opposition AMs are generally of the same opinion about this.
 AMs are divided on whether or not Scottish independence would lead to greater calls from the general public for Wales to follow suit and become an
independent country itself. A third of AMs (35%) say that there would be increase in calls for Welsh independence compared with a quarter (23%) who
believe that support for Welsh independence would drop in the event of Scotland voting ‘yes’ in the referendum.
 The Senedd is also divided in terms of the implications on the strength of the relationship between the Welsh and Scottish governments – while 37%
say the relationship will grow stronger as a result of Scottish independence, 32% think it will grow weaker.
 AMs do not foresee that Scottish independence will have any effect at all on the Welsh economy – an opinion expressed by eight in ten AMs (79%) and
a view shared by both Labour and opposition AMs.
 In terms of the effect on funding the Welsh Government, while most (58%) believe that there will be no change to the budget allocated from
Westminster, there are some who believe that it will lead to more budget (22%) or to a reduction in the budget (14%).
 Regardless of whether Scotland becomes independent or not, there is a strong view in Cardiff Bay that the way the devolved administrations are
currently funded (i.e. the Barnett Formula) should no longer be used – 84% are of this opinion with agreement amongst all parties.
See pages 4-9 for further details on these results

4. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014
65
57
72
22
29
16
7
14
6
12
All AMs
Labour AMs
Opposition AMs
More powers than currently proposed would be devolved No change in the powers already proposed Fewer powers than currently proposed would be devolved Don’t know
Implications on devolved powers
Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014
Which of these statements best describes the likely implications on devolved powers to the Welsh Government if Scotland
becomes an independent country? In the decade following Scottish independence…
Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs

5. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014
35
14
57
27
29
26
23
29
18
14
29
All AMs
Labour AMs
Opposition AMs
Support would go up No change in support Support would go down Don’t know
Implications on public support for Welsh independence
Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014
Which of these statements best describes the likely implications for public support for Wales becoming an independent
country? In the decade following Scottish independence…
Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs

6. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014
37
29
46
23
14
32
32
43
22
7
14
All AMs
Labour AMs
Opposition AMs
Relationship would grow stronger No change in strength of relationship Relationship would grow weaker Don’t know
Implications on strength of Welsh/Scottish relationship
Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014
Which of these statements best describes the likely implications on the strength of the relationship between the Welsh and
Scottish governments? In the decade following Scottish independence…
Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs

7. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014
6
12
79
86
72
5
10
10
14
6
All AMs
Labour AMs
Opposition AMs
The economy would grow stronger No change effect on Welsh economy The economy would grow weaker Don’t know
Implications on the Welsh economy
Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014
Which of these statements best describes the likely implications on the Welsh economy? In the decade following Scottish
independence…
Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs

8. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014
22
44
58
71
46
14
29
5
10
All AMs
Labour AMs
Opposition AMs
More budget allocated from Westminster No change in budget allocated from Westminster Less budget allocated from Westminster Don’t know
Implications on Welsh Government’s budget
Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014
which of these statements best describes the likely implications on the Welsh Government’s budget allocation if Scotland
becomes an independent country? In the decade following Scottish independence…
Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs

9. Ipsos MORI’s Assembly Members Survey 2014
Future of the Barnett Formula
54
30
9
7
To what extent do you agree or disagree with the following statements…The Barnett Formula should no longer be used to
determine the block grants for the United Kingdom's devolved administrations?
79
72
81 84
12
17
9 7
0
20
40
60
80
100
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
% Agree % Disagree
% Strongly agree % Tend to agree % Neither /
No opinion
% Tend to disagree % Disagree strongly
43
43
14
65
18
18
Base: All AMs (25), Labour AMs (7), Opposition AMs (18), June-August 2014
Opposition
AMs
All AMs
Caution: Small base size for Labour and opposition AMs