Research Paper on Urban Sustainability

1. International Conference on Industrial Engineering & Operation Management
Grand Hyatt Bali, Indonesia. January 7-9, 2014
Understanding Dynamics of Green House Gases Impacts on Urban
Development: Jakarta Case Study
Modeling Approach to Support Policy Making
Akhmad Hidayatno, Irvanu Rahman, and Ricki Muliadi
System Engineering, Modeling and Simulation Laboratory
Industrial Engineering Department, Universitas Indonesia
systems.ie.ui.ac.id
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1

2. Outline
This presentation is divided into four parts,
1
Background: Cities and Climate Change
2
Literature: Sustainable Development
3
Methodology: Modeling Approaches
4
Discussion
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2

3. Cities Megatrend
Megatrends imply significant challenges for city decision makers
Megatrends
Sustainable Urban Development
Globalization & Urbanization
 Global players / trade volume increase
 2030: 60% of population in cities
 High density living demands for new
patterns in infrastructure
Demographic Change
 65+ generation will nearly double
by 2030 (from 7% to 12%)
 Need for adequate infrastructures
as well as health- and elder care
Climate Change
 Cities responsible for ~80% GHG
 Need for resource efficiency
and environmental care
 Cities are competing globally
to make their urban areas
attractive to live and to invest in
Competitiveness
Governance
Environment
Quality
of Life
 Challenge to balance between
competitiveness, environment and quality
of life, and to finance infrastructure
solutions
 Achieve committed CO2 targets
―Making Cities Work – Sustainable Urban Infrastructure‖ — Siemens (2012)
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3

4. Jakarta’s Current Challenges and Concerns
Major Forces: Growing Population, Land Use, and Climate Change
1970
1980
1990
2000
4.546.500
6.503.400
8.259.300
8.385.600
Policies
Priorities
Regional Government Plan
1
Build Good Urban
Governance
Spatial Plans
(RTRW 2030)
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2
GHG Mitigation Plan
(RAD-GRK 2030)
Develop Resilience
Eco-City
Coastal Defense
Strategy (JCDS)
3
Promote PublicPrivate Partnership
Electronic Road
Pricing (ERP)
Low Carbon
Transport (MRT, BRT)
4

5. Conflicting Demand between Policy Targets
Regional Government Targets (in 2030):
• Sustaining 7 - 8 % economic growth per annum
• 30 % emission reduction from BAU
• 30 % green space expansion
• Is it possible to reduce emission and expand the green space without
slowing operation and economic growth ?
• Can the green space satisfy emission reduction target ?
• At what costs ?
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5

6. Research Objectives
▪
Develop integrated development model of
Jakarta to obtain understanding on how GHG
emission affects Jakarta’s urban system structure.
▪
The model consist of three modules:
economic; social; environmental, and it will run
for twenty five years, from 2006 to 2030.
▪ The resulting model will be used as a tool for
policy testing to help decision makers in tackling
Jakarta’s future challenges and achieving policies
targets (Future Research).
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6

7. Outline
This presentation is divided into four parts,
1
Background: Jakarta and Climate Change
2
Literature: Sustainable Urban Development
3
Methodology: Modeling Approaches
4
Discussion
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7

8. Sustainable Urban Development
Sustainable urban development focuses on balancing economic activities, social, and environment. (Chen, Ho, & Jan, 2006).
Integration of these three dimensions allows the government and stakeholders to develop long-term and
integrated visions for sustainable urban planning. (Rotmans, Asselt, & Vellinga, 2000).
Workforce, Household Consumption
Human
and Social
Capital
Economic
Capital
Revenue, Employment Opportunities
(+) investment
(-) Emission
Economic
resources,
absorb/
release
pollution
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Environmental
Capital
Energy
Infrastructure
Health Effect
Environmental
awareness
8

9. Outline
This presentation is divided into four parts,
1
Background: Jakarta and Climate Change
2
Literature: Sustainable Urban Development
3
Methodology: Modeling Approaches
4
Discussion
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9

10. Modeling Typology for Policy Making Process
We use exploratory approach in developing our model to focus on dynamic insight of behaviors, not the numbers produced
(predictive modeling). Model such as this one are useful, not because they predict the details of number, but because building and using
them improves our insight (Bankes, 1993).
Predictive Modeling
Exploratory Modeling
― trying to predict the unpredictable ‖
― the search for insight ‖
―Exploratory Modeling and the Use of Simulation for Policy Analysis‖ — Bankes(1993)
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10

11. Model Concept: Threshold 21
Threshold 21 model is a National Sustainability Development Model developed by Millennium Institute (USA) using system dynamics.
The model consists of three dimensions of sustainable development, which has interconnected relationships among its endogenous
structure. Our model is developed using this concept and translated into city level by using yearly statistical
data officially published by the regional government and national statistics numbers.
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12. Causal-Loop Diagram of Endogenous Variables
GHG
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12

13. Model Conceptualization: System’s Perspective
Diagram System of Jakarta Sustainable Urban Model
Regional Govenrmnet Policies
Sustainable-City
Indicators
Exogenous
Variables
Input
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(Endogenous) Process
Output
Problem Owners
13

14. Model Assumptions
Endogenous
Exogenous
Excluded
Population
Migration
Natural Disaster
Life Expectancy
Exchange Rate
Corruption
Labor Force
Inflation Rate
Crime
Gross Regional Domestic Product
Education Spending Portion
Terrorism
Technology Development
War
Investment
Political Issues
Consumption
Other Regions’ Growth
Fossil Fuel Emission
Education
Employment
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14

15. Model: Modules and Structure
Social Module
Environmental Module
industrial petroleum
usage in mmbtu
CO2 to NOx
MOLECULAR
W EIGHT
RESIDENTIAL
PETROLEUM DEMAND
CH4 EMISSION FACTOR
number of
household
Population
birth
total NOx emission
from petroleum
CH4 to CO2e
SW ITCH GOS RTRW
policy
industrial natural
gas usage in mmbtu
ELECTRICITY
PETROLEUM DEMAND
CH4 EMISSION FACTOR
NOx to CO2e
total CO2e emission
from petroleum
81.76 k m ²
petroleum for
electricity CH4
emission
total CO2 emission
from petroleum
green open space
grow th
total petroleum
usage in barrel
PM10 concentration
petroleum for
electricity saving
Population
petroleum for
residential saving
effect of fossil fuel
emission on
mortality
gross regional
domestic product
0.05 k m ³/yr
public service clean
w ater demand
CLEAN W ATER
DEMAND PER CAPITA
CLEAN W ATER
SHARE
Se conda ry School
se conda ry school
e nrollm e nt
High School
high school e nrollm e nt
Gra dua te School
gra dua te school
e nrollm e nt
STUDY DUR ATIO N SS
STUDY DUR ATIO N P S
STUDY DUR ATIO N HS
P R IMAR Y SC HO O L
ENTR ANC E R ATE P rim a ry School Age
P op
lite ra te pe ople ra te pe r
ye a r
stude nts
P R IMAR Y SC HO O L AGE
P O P P ER C ENTAGE
Population
production capacity
gra dua te school drop
out le ve l
0.10 k m ³/yr
industrial clean
w ater demand
Population
Clean Water
Air Quality
Lite ra te P e ople
e duca tion inde x
stude nts to popula tion
ra tio
SW ITCH
environmental
aw areness
clean w ater saving
SW ITCH
environmental
aw areness
P rim a ry School
prim a ry school
e nrollm e nt
Clean W ater Availability
PAM clean w ater
total clean w ater
demand
PAM clean w ater supply
production
gra dua te school drop
out ra te
high school drop out
le ve l
household clean
w ater demand
GRDP per capita
SERVICE LEVEL
high school drop out
ra te
se conda ry school drop
out ra te
se conda ry school drop
out le ve l
prim a ry school drop out
le ve l
0.39 k m ³/yr
0.26 k m ³/yr
CO2 emission
reduction from low
control air
purification strategy
SW ITCH low control
prim a ry school drop
out ra te
0.24 k m ³/yr
clean w ater effect
CO2 emission
reduction from
medium control air
purification strategy
RATIO INDUSTRIAL
PETROLEUM USAGE
PER UNIT
RATIO
TRANSPORTATION
PETROLEUM USAGE
PER UNIT
petroleum for
transportation
saving
Green Space
SW ITCH medium
control
petroleum usage
RATIO RESIDENTIAL
PETROLEUM USAGE
PER UNIT
groundw ater
extraction rate
groundw ater
extraction
0.08 k m ³/yr
industrial petroleum
usage
industrial
production
government edu
spend
0.49 k m ³/yr
Groundw ater Level
health index
TOTAL LAND AREA
total petroleum
usage in kiloliter
residential
petroleum usagetransportation
662.33 k m ²
TOTAL LAND AREA
CO2 emission
reduction from high
control air
purification strategy
emission reduction
KILOLITER TO BARREL
petroleum usage for
electricity
RATIO PETROLEUM
FOR ELECTRICITY
USAGE PER UNIT
TOTAL LAND AREA
0.08 k m ³
groundw ater
recharge
percentage of
green space
SW ITCH high
control
CO2e emission
concentration
volume CO2e
transportation
petroleum CH4
emission
Populasi
death rate
population density
Ground W ater
Infiltration
0.04 k m ³/yr
0.12
emission
absorbsion from
GOS
net CO2e emission
in ton
atmosphere height
birth rate
Surface W ater Level w ater discharge
w ater evaporatio
developed area
green open space
RTRW grow th
SW ITCH GOS
emission
absorbsion
CO2 EMISSION
FACTOR FOR
PETROLEUM
DEMAND
AVERAGE FAMILY
SIZE
16.11 k m ³
Green Open Space
Green Open Space
NOx EMISSION FACTOR
FOR INDUSTRIAL
NATURAL GAS
CH4 to CO2
equivalent
TRANSPORTATION
PETROLEUM DEMAND
CH4 EMISSION FACTOR
surface w ater
recharge
reclamation rate
EMISSION
ABSORBSION FROM
GOS PER KM2
NOx to CO2
equivalent
total CH4 emission
from petrolium
death
SCF to BTU
CH4 EMISSION FACTOR
FOR INDUSTRIAL
NATURAL GAS
total CO2e emission
from natural gas
CO2 to CH4
MOLECULAR
W EIGHT
residential
petroleum CH4
emission
tranportation
transportation
petroleum usage in
petroleum usage
mmbtu
migration
MIGRATION RATE
PRECIPITATION
industrial petroleum
CH4 emission
petroleum usage for
petroleum usage for
electricity
electricity in mmbtu
industrial
production
industrial natural
gas usage
CO2 emission froam
natural gas
industrial petroleum
usage
residential
residential
petroleum usage
petroleum usage in
mmbtu
RATIO INDUSTRIAL
NATURAL GAS
USAGE PER UNIT
CO2 EMISSION
FACTOR FOR
NATURAL GAS
tranportation
residential
petroleum usage in
petroleum usage inpetroleum usage for
mmbtu
mmbtu
electricity in mmbtu
PETROLEUM DEMAND
NOx EMISSION FACTOR
industrial petroleum
usage in mmbtu
INDUSTRIAL PETROLEUM
DEMAND CH4 EMISSION
FACTOR
KILOLITER TO
MMBTU
Education
a dult lite ra cy inde x
Total Labor Demand
net labor demand
LABOR ACCEPTANCE
RATE
labor acceptance
labor cost of capital
industrial labor
demand
service area labor
demand
agricultural labor
demand
Economic Module
Jobs Opening
Employment Level
net labor demand
Average Labor Cost
labor cost inflation
INFLATION RATE
unemployment
unemployment level
Service Employed
net service hiring
AVERAGE SERVICE
LABOR RATE
Total W orkforce
w orkforce supply
rate
w orkforce decrease
rate
service area labor
demand
SERVICE CAP RATIO
birth rate
Population
EXTRAORDINARY
SPENDING PORTION
extraordinary
expenditure and
lending
URBANIZATION
RATE
expenditure and
net lending
government
healthcare
expenditure
agricultural
investment
government
economics services
expenditure
INITIAL AGRI
PRODUCTION
Government Income
Increase Rate
Income Class
government
revenue
EDU SPEND
PORTION
Inc Class Size
government
revenue
Service Employed
industrial labor
demand
Population
INFLATION RATE
Capital Service
Reg. Gov. Expenditure
agricultural labor
demand
depreciation service
Investment Services
Service Employed
service capital
intensity change
Private Investment
Private Investment
Rate
effect capital
intensity service
productivity
Effectiveness of
Public Investment
Table
INIT EFFECT
CAPITAL INTENSITY
SERV PRODUCTIVITY
Public Investment
INFLATION RATE
Government
Controlled
Investment
INITIAL LABOR
SERVICE
PRODUCTIVITY
INDEX
service production
Public Consumption
Investment Services
Consumption
Increase Rate
relative consumer
price
elasticity of demand
to relative prices
investment on
agriculture
INFLATION RATE
TIME TO PERCEIVED
CHANGES IN
RELATIVE PRICES
per capita demand
Population
effect of relative
prices on
investment shares
indicated
investment shares
demand
Nominal GRDP
gross regional
domestic product
real sectoral
production
real per capita
regional income
elasticity of price to
demand supply
balance
relative sector GDP
ratio
INFLATION RATE
gross regional
income
health cost per
capita
industrial
production
real sectoral
production
Population
Service
gross regional
income
Initial Tech Multiplier
tech capital cost
Producer Price
INITIAL SECTOR Producer Price
PRODUCER PRICE
producer price
change
nominal sectoral
production
real per capita
GRDP
nominal GRDP per
capita
PP Index
real GRDP at factor
cost
nominal GRDP at
factor cost
domestic produced
domestic marketed
goods and services
taxes on goods and
services
nominal GRDP at
factor cost
revenue from non
tax
indirect taxes
supply
Initial sectoral taxes
on goods and
services
nominal sectoral
production
Relative Price
Taxes on Goods
and Services Table
nominal sectoral
production
Fraction of Indirect
Tax on revenue
Capital Service
tech advance
parameter
Technology
industrial production
labor relative
technology
ELASTICITY ON
INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL
COST OF STAY PER DAY
avg relative industrial
labor productivity
INITIAL NON TAX
REVENUE
INITIAL REGIONAL
GOVERNMENT
REVENUE
special funds etc
government
revenue
US-RP EXCHANGE
RATE
Technology
education effect on
industrial labor
productivity
Reg.Gov. Revenue
Respiratory Hospital
Admission
Respiratory Hospital
Admission Cost
industrial employment
COST OF ERV
PM10 concentration
healthy effect on labor
productivity
Emergency Room Visit
emergency room
visit cost
industrial labor
demand
health cost
Restricted Activity Days
TIME FOR CHANGE FOR
DEATH RATE TO AFFECT
PRODUCTIVITY
RAD cost
effect health on
industry productivity
table
Industry
health cost per
capita
Population
LOST DAY W AGE RATE
Average Labor Cost
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AVERAGE STAY
relative industrial
employment
INITIAL INDUSTRIAL
EMPLOYMENT
TotalRevenue
taxes on goods and
services
education index
sectoral taxes and
goods and services
CP index
education index
Technological
Percentage over
Investment
Population
budgetary revenue
Revenue from Tax
direct taxes
relative consumer
price
sectoral taxes and
goods and services
GRDP deflator
Investment
property taxes
property tax yoy
other tax revenue
property taxes
table
nominal GRDP at
factor cost
US-RP EXCHANGE
RATE
consumer price
relative price
Sectoral Production
avg relative industrial
capital productivity
Time to collect taxes
GRDP deflator
real sectoral
production
domestic share
other tax revenue
table
initial GDP deflator
relative GDP
deflator
real sectoral
production
effective indirect tax
domestic consumer rate
price
Technology
tech advance
total real
investment
INITIAL INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION
US-RP EXCHANGE
RATE
property taxes
Life Expectancy
AVG LIFE OF
INDUSTRIAL CAPITAL
Agricultural Capital
GRDP deflator
death rate
Death Rates per
age
effect of fossil fuel
emission on
mortality
Industrial Capital
depreciation on
industrial capital
real per capita
regional income
demand supply
indicated producer
balance
price
TIME TO ADJUST
PRICE
Death Rates per
age group
INITIAL CAPITAL
INDUSTRI
relative industrial capital labor cost of capital
sector GDP ratio
service production
GRDP deflator
Restricted Activity
Days
Death Rate Table
medium term average
real per capita income
Indicated Life
in USD in PPP
Expectancy
normal life expectancy
Initial Medium Term
Average Per Capita
Income
Investment
Industry
Sectoral Production
Producer Price
Agriculture Production
LOCAL CONDITION LE
normal life expectancy ADJUSTMENT
table
PARAMETER
education index
Population
INITIAL SECTOR
PRODUCER PRICE
supply
nominal inflation
relative price
inital per capita
demand
initial real PC
income
INITIAL
INVESTMENT SHARE
perceived relative
price
INITIAL SECTOR
GDP RATIO
indicated per capita
demand
PPP PARAMETER
real per capita income
in USD in PPP
health effect on
service productivity
W ORKING DAYS IN
YEAR
initial sectoral
demand supply
disequilibrium
feasible share of
per capita demand
investment shares
adjustment
INITIAL RELATIVE
PRICE
elasticity of demand supply
to income
gross regional
domestic product
Industrial Capital
Sector investment
share
INVESTMENT SHARE
ADJUSTMENT TIME
ELASTICITY OF
INVESTMENT TO
RELATIVE PRICES
MALE-FEMALE LE
DIFFERENCE
Agricultural
INIT AGRI CAPITAL
tech effetc on serv
prod
Technology
GRDP deflator
real per capita
GRDP
Population
real per capita gross
national income
INITIAL W ORKER VALUE
ADDED IN 2006
TIME DELAY FOR
INCOME TO AFFECT
LIFE EXPECTANCY
service labor
productivity
Investment
Industry
Real Investment
GRDP deflator
TECHNOLOGY EFFECTS
ON GRAIN
PRODUCTIVITY
relative agri capital
education effect on
service productivity
capital intensity
service
Mean household
income
Mean household
income
PERCENTAGE OF
AGRICULTURAL
INVESTMENT SHARE ON
LABOR
Technology
real budgetary
expenditure
GRDP deflator
AVERAGE FAMILY
SIZE
agricultural labor
demand
value added each
w orker
AVERAGE LIFE
CAPITAL SERVICE
budgetary
expenditure
government edu
spend
Agriculture Production
agriculture
production
increasing rate
government other
expenditure
Grow th Rate
Income Level
Unit Income
Mean pc Income
Labor
agricultural
depreciation
investment on
agriculture
$112,322,964.44
INFLATION RATE
Average Labor Cost
Agricultural Capital
government
revenue
Exchange Rate USRP
government
economics services
expenditure
Capital Service
death rate
INITIAL
POPULATION
W ORKFORCE
PERCENTAGE
AVERAGE W ORKING
DAYS
Health
15

16. Model Validation
Economic Module
Real GDRP Per Capita
$4.800,00
$4.600,00
$4.400,00
$4.200,00
$4.000,00
$3.800,00
$3.600,00
$3.400,00
2006
2007
2008
JDA
2009
2010
T21
Real GDRP Per Capita
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16

17. Model Validation (2)
Economic Module
Service and Industrial Production
$45.000.000.000,00
$40.000.000.000,00
$35.000.000.000,00
$30.000.000.000,00
$25.000.000.000,00
$20.000.000.000,00
$15.000.000.000,00
$10.000.000.000,00
$5.000.000.000,00
$2006
SERV - JDA
2007
SERV - T21
2008
IND - JDA
2009
2010
IND - T21
Service
Industry
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18. Model Validation (3)
Social Module
Population
16000000
14000000
12000000
10000000
8000000
6000000
4000000
2000000
JDA
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
0
T21
Population
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18

19. Model Validation (4)
Environmental Module
Green Space
90 km²
80 km²
70 km²
60 km²
50 km²
40 km²
30 km²
20 km²
10 km²
JDA
2030
2029
2028
2027
2026
2025
2024
2023
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
0 km²
T21
Green Space
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19

20. Outline
This presentation is divided into four parts,
1
Background: Jakarta and Climate Change
2
Literature: Sustainable Urban Development
3
Methodology: Modeling Approaches
4
Discussion: Results and Insights
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20

21. Framework of Analysis: Sustainable City Indicators
Health Quality
Socially Inclusive
Job Openings
Unemployment
Environmental
Friendly
Air Quality
Clean Water Balance
Green Space Proportion
Sustainable
Development
Regional GDP
Per Capita Income
Economically
Competitive
Emission Per GDRP
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21

22. Results and Insights
Emission
Dynamics
• Behavior Over Time (BOT) Graphs of Variables related to
GHG Emission
Industrial Production vs GHG Emission, Number of Sick days vs GHG Emission
• Economic Development
• Sectoral productions and proportion
Model Insights
• Social Indicators
• Population growth, employment, and unemployment
• Environmental Sustainability
• Green space proportion and capabilities.
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22

23. Industrial Production vs GHG Emission
Industrial production is the major emitter of green house gases. The rapid growing of industrial production will
significantly boost emission produced. Hence, the pattern of behavior both variables is similar.
12000000
18000000
16000000
10000000
14000000
12000000
10000000
6000000
80000000
4000000
2000000
60000000
Industrial Sektor Industri
Produksi Production
GHG Gas Rumah Kaca
EmisiEmissions
0
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40000000
20000000
0
23
tons Emision
US Dollars
8000000

24. GHG Emission vs Number of Sick Days
Air pollution has strong impacts towars human health (respiratory illlness) and even mortality (Ostro, 1994). Our model captured this
relationship and measured in terms of sick days. The increasing number of sick days will induce productivity loss and
possibly slow economic growth.
0,035 da
18000000
16000000
0,03 da
14000000
Number of Sick Days
12000000
0,02 da
10000000
80000000
0,015 da
60000000
0,01 da
40000000
0,005 da
Sick Days
Sick Days
20000000
GHG Gas Rumah Kaca
EmisiEmissions
0 da
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0
24
tons Emision
0,025 da

25. Results and Insights
GHG Emission
Dynamics
• Behavior Over Time (BOT) Graphs of Variables related to
GHG Emission
Industrial Production vs GHG Emission, Number of Sick days vs GHG Emission
• Economic Development
• Sectoral productions and proportion
Model
Insights
• Social Indicators
• Population growth, employment, and unemployment
• Environmental Sustainability
• Green space proportion and capabilities.
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25

26. Economic Development
As mentioned earlier, industrial emission will induce economic productivity. Without government intervention, Jakarta
will face economic slow down. It is also suspected that Jakarta’s economy has reached a saturation point (limit of growth)
90.000.000.000
131 %
“ limit to growth ‖
80.000.000.000
70.000.000.000
USD
60.000.000.000
50.000.000.000
40.000.000.000
30.000.000.000
industrial production
service production
Agriculture production
real GRDP at factor cost
20.000.000.000
10.000.000.000
0
2006
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2008
2010
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
26

27. Economic Development
Sectoral Production – Service sector still dominate Jakarta’s economy until 2030
2006
0%
Industrial Production
2030
15%
0%
12%
85%
88%
Service Production
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27

28. Social Indicators
Stable Growth of Population and Workforce Trends
16.000.000
14.000.000
12.000.000
person
10.000.000
8.000.000
6.000.000
Population
4.000.000
Total Workforce
Employment Level
2.000.000
unemployment
0
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
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28

29. Social Indicators
Unemployment Proportion
2006
12%
2030
13%
88%
87%
Employment Rate
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Unemployment Rate
29

30. Social Indicators
Per Capita Income – “Law of deminishing return”
6.000
5.000
USD
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
0
2006
2007
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2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
30

31. Environmental Sustainability
Green Space Proportion – Rapid Grow of Air Purification Capacity
4%
12%
96%
2006
88%
2030
Green Open Space
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Urbanized Area
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32. Environmental Sustainability
In BAU scenario, the number of emission absorbed by the green space is within range 4 – 8 % per year or 5
percent per year in average.
Emission Absorbed
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Total GHG Emission
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33. Overall Indicators Result
These result serve as a baseline to support our future works.
Variables
2006
2030
Change
Economic Indicators
Real PDRB
USD
35.159.022.970
79.974.364.824
127%
↑
Service Production
USD
29.847.528.520
70.705.365.349
137%
↑
Social Indicators
Population
person
8.961.680
13.363.175
49%
↑
Employment
person
3.531.799
5.206.481
47%
↑
Unemployment
person
473.176
774.906
64%
↑
1%
↑
36%
↑
60%
↑
61%
↑
232%
↑
232%
↑
Unemployment Rate
%
Real PDRB Per Capita
USD/Person
Number of Sick Days
12 %
3.834
days
13 %
5.212
20
32
Environmental Sustainability Indicators
GHG Emission
ton
Green Open Space (GOS)
km2
GOS Emission Absorption
ton
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34.215.285
24,61
1.400.481,27
55.129.906
81,76
4.652.830,71
33

34. Concluding Remarks
Summary
• This researh aim to build an integrated development model of Jakarta in order to obtain understanding on how GHG
emission affects Jakarta’s urban system structure.
• The developed model consist of three modules: economic; social; environmental, as the basic structure of sustainable
urban development concept.
• The result shows that GHG emission would harm all city’s sectors, especially health equity of people which play a main
role as the backbone of Jakarta’s economic.
Future Direction
• Next step of this research will be focusing on developing policy model and integrate it within this current model. Future
model will serve as a medium for policy testing tools and support the government in decision making.
Acknowledgement
This research is made possible through the support from Regional Government of Jakarta and Institute for Transportation
and Development Policy (ITDP) Indonesia for the insights and data support, and University of Indonesia who provide
financial support through their research grants programme.
Contact
System Engineering, Modeling, and Simulation Laboratory
Industrial Engineering Department, University of Indonesia
irvanu.rahman@yahoo.com | systems.ie.ui.ac.id
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