Dijital dünyada neler oluyor, gelecekte nasıl bir dünya bekliyor; dijitalleşme ile nasıl gelişmeler olmakta konusunda Kasım 2018'de hazırlanmış sunumdur. Mega trendler tüm dünyayı etkilerken, teknolojik gelişmeler ve dijitalleşme sayesinde bir çok soruna çözüm arayışı da sürmekte. Öte yandan artan nüfus ve VUCA ortamına çözüm salt teknoloji ile gelemeyecek. İnsanlık, akıllı ve bilinçli yönetim sergilemek ve stratejiler geliştirmek zorunda. Zira, gelecek pek de kolay gelmeyecek!
9. OTOMASYON TEHDIDI ALTINDAKI IŞLER
Yemek hazırlama
İnşaat
Temizlik
Sürücülük
Tarım işgücü
Giysi üreticisi
Kişisel hizmetler
Satış
Müşteri hizmetleri
İşletme
Bilgi teknolojileri
Bilim ve mühendislik
Sağlık
Konaklama ve Perakende
Üst yönetim ve politika
Öğretmenlik
İnsanlık için Otomasyon
İş türlerine göre otomasyon riski, %
OTOMASYON RİSKİ:
32 ülkede işlerin
• %14’ü yüksek (%70)
• %32’si orta (%50-70)
• 210 milyon iş
20. Artırılmış Gerçeklik (AR)
Sanal Deneyim
Sanal ve artırılmış gerçeklik teknolojileri sayesinde, kullanıcılar gerçek-yaşam
senaryolarını simüle edebilecek dijital mekânlara kavuşabilecek.
Alışveriş trendlerindeki değişimler sonucunda çok yakın bir gelecekte telefona ya da
cüzdana ihtiyaç duymadan alışveriş yapabileceğiz.
Teknolojideki son gelişmelerle, mobil ticaret ve en son olarak biyometrik
uygulamalardan biri olan parmak izi, yüz tanıma ve bluetooth ile de alışveriş yapabilmek
mümkün olacak.
Sanal deneme kabinleri, içinde ürün veya çalışan olmayan mağazalar karşımıza çıkacak
yeni konseptler olacak
21. Giyilebilir
Teknolojiler
45 milyar $
(2021)
Akıllı Gözlükler
Akıllı Saat
Akıllı
Gömlek
SGPS/GPR
S
Vücut
Kontrol
Bluetooth
Anahtar
İzleyici
Akıllı
Ayakkabılar
Akıllı
Çoraplar
Akıllı
Pantolon
Akıllı
Kemer
Akıllı
Yüzük
Akıllı
Parmak
Akıllı Bilezik
27. GELECEK NASIL GELECEK?
2025 İtibarı ile Gerçekleşmesi BeklenenTeknolojideki Kırılma Noktaları YanıtlayanlarınYüzdesi (%)
İnsanların %10’unun giysileri internete bağlı olacak
ABD’de ilk robot eczacı
İlk 3-boyutlu baskı araba üretimde olacak
Tüketici ürünlerinin %5’i 3-boyutlu (3-D) yazıcıdan basılacak
Nüfusun %90’ı düzenli olarak internete bağlı olacak
ABD yollarının %10’unda sürücüsüz arabalar kullanılacak
İlk 3-boyutlu (3-D) baskı karaciğer nakli gerçekleşmiş olacak
Internet ağının %50’den fazlası evlerde kullanılan alet ve cihazlarda
50.000’in üzerinde nüfusu olup hiç trafik lambası kullanmayan ilk şehir
KurumsalYönetim Kurulu’nda kullanılan ilkYapayZekâlı makine
World Economic Forum, Technology Tipping Points and Societal Impact Report (2015)
31. GÖÇLER
2000-2050 Göç eden nüfusun büyüme tahmini, seçilen ülkeler, toplam nüfusa oran (%).
Kırmızı/kahverengi-İngilizce konuşan dünya.Yeşil-Avrupalı.
Amerika Birleşik Devletleri (2008-bazlı)
Birleşik Krallık (2006-bazlı, etnik kaymalı, tahmin)
Kanada (2001-bazlı)
Yeni Zelanda (2005-bazlı)
Birleşik Krallık (2006-bazlı, sadece beyaz-olmayanlar)
Hollanda (2009-bazlı)
Norveç (2009-bazlı)
Almanya (orta değişken)
Avusturya (düşük göç)
Danimarka (2009-bazlı)
Global Trends 2030
32. BEKLENEN YAŞAM SÜRESİ (MEDYAN 2030)
UN Population Division (2017) (Our World in Data)
Assuming only modest growth of another billion in uptake in the ten years thereafter, 6.3 billion of a projected 8.4 billion, 75% of humanity, will be connected and mobile by 2030.
Individuals are participating in globalization directly, using digital platforms to learn, find work, showcase their talent, and build personal networks.
Some 900 million people have international connections on social media, and 360 million take part in cross-border e-commerce. McKinsey Digital Globalization 2016
Hâli hazırda dünyadaki veri hacminin 2.8 ZB büyüklüğünde olduğu tahmin ediliyor.
İşletmeler açısından verilerin miktarı ve karmaşıklığı sıkıntılara yol açarken, bilgiyi elde eden ve bilgiden fayda ve verim elde edebilen de kazanacak.
1 ZB = 10007bytes = 1021bytes = 1000000000000000000000bytes = 1000exabytes = 1billionterabytes = 1trilliongigabytes
METALAŞAN VERİ: That “Moore’s law” – predicting that the capacity of microchips would double every two years
On binlerce kullanıcıyı destekleyen onlarca MB/s veri hızı
Bütünleşik Medya Deneyimi
NGMN Alliance or Next Generation Mobile Networks Alliance define 5G network requirements as:
Data rates of several tens of Mb/s should be supported for tens of thousands of users.
1 Gbit/s to be offered, simultaneously to tens of workers on the same office floor.
Several hundreds of thousands of simultaneous connections to be supported for massive sensor deployments.
Spectral efficiency should be significantly enhanced compared to 4G.
Coverage should be improved
Signalling efficiency enhanced.
There are a wide number of fixed and test deployments with companies like Qualcomm, Intel, Nokia, Ericcson, Samsung and Huawei all getting into the action. We are also seeing new companies like Mimosa Networks making it possible to roll 5G out to both rural and urban locations, paving the way for bullish 5G mobile providers—i.e. ATT and Verizon—to start offering new, cooler, faster, more innovative services for mobile users. It’s an exciting time for 5G and mobile alike. While 2018 was the year that fixed 5G applications found their legs, in 2019 we are going to see 5G finding its way into the upper corner of our Mobile devices, albeit for you iPhone users it is more likely going to be 2020 or later.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/danielnewman/2018/09/11/top-10-digital-transformation-trends-for-2019/#5f793dfc3c30
Connected Clouds (Public, Private, Hybrid):
Major public cloud providers like Amazon and Alibaba are answering the call, offering private cloud (or in Google’s case, container-based) options.
We are also seeing Microsoft via Azure,
HPE with their 2017 acquisition of Cloud Technology Partners and their consumable IT services,
as well as VMware with their recent acquisition of CloudHealth Technologies all show increased commitment to connecting clouds.
What Year 2030 Will Look Like - 7 Future Tech Innovations
Robotlar sadece mavi yakalıların değil beyaz yakalıların da işlerine talip.
Digital Transactions (flows) are: Activities can be done via robotics
In 1945 Da Vinci drew plans for an armored humanoid (zırhlı insansı).
It is estimated that more than 1 million industrial robots are in operation today, majority in Japan.
Robots are poised to do more work than humans by 2025.
Hamburger Bot in San Fransisco-Creator (6$, 350 sensors, 20 computers, 5 mins to create, 130 burgers/hr, upto 9 robot assistants)
Humanoids In The Bar-NAO Robot (teaching young people to code) It can be programmed by children, students, people.
Future: Robotics and Humanoids
New working paper by the OECD, the study finds that 14% of jobs across 32 countries are highly vulnerable, defined as having at least a 70% chance of automation. A further 32% were slightly less imperilled, with a probability between 50% and 70%. At current employment rates, that puts 210m jobs at risk across the 32 countries in the study.
2025 Yılında İnternet’e Bağlı 34 Milyar Cihaz Olacak.
What Year 2030 Will Look Like - 7 Future Tech Innovations
Number of connected deviced that are in use ww exceeds number of people living.
Spending on IoT devises and services reach 2 trln $.
Globally B2B and consumer devices are driving the IoT market.
Yaya kaldırımlarından giydiğimiz kıyafete kadar.
Key Focus Areas:
Smart Cities
Connected Cars
Connected Home
Oil & Gas
Retail
Wearables
Dünyanın ilk akıllı treni: Transport of the future?
The world's first "smart train" with virtual tracks begins operating on the busy streets of Zhuzhou, China.
The futuristic system, featuring track-less trains and invisible rail lines, has been developed as an effort to speed up public transport in cities.Kapılarından tuvalete kadar bir milyondan fazla sensörle donatılmış.
Hunan, Çin’de dünyanın ilk akıllı treni. 2017. 32 m, 300 kişi taşıyor. 3.1 km’lik rotada 4 istasyonluk yol gidiyor. 70km/h hız.
Her Evde Kişisel Fabrikatörler: 3B baskı 2030’lara kadar çok ucuzlayacağını ve hemen her eve gireceğini düşünüyor. Bu durumda herkesin kendi üretimini kendisinin yapacağını beklemek çok da hayali değil.
What Year 2030 Will Look Like - 7 Future Tech Innovations.
2024’te 3-Boyutlu Organ Nakli gerçekleşmiş olacak.
3-D yoluyla sinirler tedavi edilebilecek.
3D printing used in movies like: IronMan, The Hobbit, Black Panther, Star Wars, Chase Me, Paranorman, Jurassic Park, Avatar, The Muppets, Termination
14B$ in 2019 spending on 3d ww
Started in 1980s
JAY LENO uses 3D
A family in France moved into 3D printed home (built in 54 hrs)
3D Prosthetic hand changed the life of a child
3D Printing Organs with the “Bioficial” Technique.
Modena-made Energica EGO superbike is built for speed. Kalıp sanayi, organ üretimi, inşaat, robotlar… MALZEME BİLİMDE gelişmeler.. Nano-teknolojide
The possibilities of 3D printing technologies are expanding into the food industry. From pizzas to personalized foods, 3D food printing technology is being adopted by many food industry professionals for producing unique food items.
The incorporation of this new technology into the food space brings a lot of benefits to manufacturers. Now, companies can boost the visual appeal of their food products by designing new shapes which can be manufactured using a 3D printer. Additionally, the labor cost for creating culinary art can be very expensive for industry professionals; a new 3D food printer on site can cut costs significantly.
This type of technology is already prominent in the medical device, automotive, defense and aerospace industry. However, the presence of 3D food printing is growing as more major players in the food industry take notice of this innovative technology.
Personalized Nutrition. BeeHex's personalized nutrition technology can optimize your dietary needs based on your body and lifestyle.
We spoke with 3D printing celebrity Anjan Contractor- best known for winning a NASA grant to 3D print pizza fit for deep-space missions. His current venture, BeeHex, Inc., commercializes the technology that brought him fame. Here are a few ways 3D printing is securing a better future for people around the world. Food healthier and accessible. Now imagine if food could be printed. You control nutritional value. You make healthy eating available for everyone. There are people in the world that can't afford food, and 3D printing can change that.» Now, a startup building a 3-D food printer, BeeHex, has raised $1 million in seed funding to launch its first product, a pizza printer called the Chef 3D.
When you absolutely have to own a personal electric vehicle that's right on the bleeding edge, you'll need to pass by Tesla and head over to Airbus Group.
When an aerospace company takes on urban mobility, the results are sure to amaze us, and if the recent work of the Airbus Group subsidiary APWorks is any indication, the future of electric vehicles will integrate extremely lightweight chassis and components into their designs, and probably include additive layer manufacturing (ALM), which is most commonly referred to as 3D-printing. While most of us are still trying to wrap our heads around the coming electric vehicle revolution, APWorks has taken a huge leap beyond conventional EVs with its 3D-printed electric motorcycle project, the Light Rider.
What Year 2030 Will Look Like - 7 Future Tech Innovations.
2024’te 3-Boyutlu Organ Nakli gerçekleşmiş olacak.
3-D yoluyla sinirler tedavi edilebilecek.
3-D yazıcılarla tam işlevsel organlar üretilecek (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbsUc_rwttQ)
Data to Analytics to Machine Learning to AI:
As recent data has shown we have created 90% of the world’s data in the past year, research is also showing that we are only using 1% of the data effectively.
Yapay zeka geçmiş hatalardan öğrenebiliyor ve büyük veriye dayanarak karmaşık problemleri çözebiliyor.
AI is estimated to contribute 15.7$ trillion to the global economy by 2030
The 127b$ autonomous vehicle is driven by AI
Some products you buy are likely to be suggested to you by AI.
The World in 2030: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbsUc_rwttQ
Surgeons reroute nerves to enable paralyzed people to use their hands. Once likened to the Apollo space program that brought humanity to the moon, the completion of the Human Genome Project (HGP) in April of 2003 is considered to be a major milestone of medicine. The knowledge gained from subsequent research has shaped genomics, and is now making its way into clinical medicine.
By helping to map the entire human genome, researchers can now begin to understand the genetic basis for health and the pathology of disease. Instead of taking a one-size-fits-most approach to developing treatments for diseased populations, medicine has taken a turn towardsprevention, personalization, and precision. A shift that can be put into everyday practice with the use of artificial intelligence (AI).
While traditional medical practice focuses on finding clinical solutions and treatment options based on the needs of the average person showing a generalized set of symptoms, precision medicine, driven by genome sequencing and data analysis, allows for personalized diagnosis and treatment according to specific genetic, environmental and lifestyle factors.
Image recognition technology helps fight lung cancer-infervision.
Satoşi Nakamoto takma adını kullanan kişi veya kişiler tarafından yaratılan ve dâhice olduğu şüphe götürmeyen blok zinciri, gitgide önem kazanarak herkesin aklından geçen bir sorunun hedefine dönüştü. "Nedir bu blok zinciri?"
Leading technology firms like IBM continue to make massive commitments to the potential of Blockchain for applications beyond cryptocurrency. The financial industry are also looking at this closely as well as a mass of applications in transportation of goods and services. However, to this point, it seems more of a marketing ploy than a bonafide technology offering. My guess is a lot of smart developers will continue to work on realizing the potential of blockchain
Dijital Sigorta Poliçesi hazırlamak artık çok kolay (sayfalarca basılacak poliçeler yerine).
Ticarette GÜVEN ve ADALETİN yerini Micro-payment endüstrisi aldı.
A micropayment is an e-commerce transaction involving a very small sum of money in exchange for something made available online, such as an application download, a service or Web-based content.
Micropayments are sometimes defined as anything less than 75 cents and can be as low as a fraction of a cent. A special type of system is required for such payments, which are too small to be feasible for processing through credit card companies.
Here's one scheme for micropayment: The user and seller each establish an account with a third-party service provider who monitors, collects and distributes micropayments. The seller encodes per-fee links inside a Web page. When the user initiates a transaction, payment goes through an Internet wallet account managed by the service provider. Micropayments accumulate until they are collected as single, larger payments.
Citibank video: https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=71&v=0NogltmewmQ
AR has found tons of use cases in enterprise workforce training, meaning it’s not just cool, it’s useful. And that’s what technology is all about. In fact, even though some think it will be slow, I believe AR’s development will ramp up in 2019. I’m even bracing to hear something about a new AR or mixed reality product and/or developer kit on September 12 from Apple’s big announcement.
Imagine a world where users can experience a virtual product, a financial service or a shopping mall and realize their purchase decisions as if they are actually “there”.
With the help of the virtual and augmented reality technologies, users can now be immersed in digitally created spaces that simulate real-life scenarios.
These scenarios provide a superior understanding of a product/financial service and help increase the brand engagement like never before.
Virtual reality and augmented reality technologies may still be years away from a noticeable impact on the FinTech industry, however early adopters and technologists have started developing some noteworthy experiments.
Comarch — a global IT solutions provider from Poland — demoed its virtual reality wealth management software at the 2016 Finovate Spring event in San Jose, California. This prototype software aims to disrupt the traditional client-service approach in private banking by combining algorithms, human relations, wearables and some fun.
https://haptic.al/how-virtual-and-augmented-reality-can-transform-the-future-of-fintech-3c52b0a79c34
Citi, has developed a working proof-of-concept for a virtual trading desk. Named as “Holographic Workstation” the prototype uses Microsoft HoloLens to help better understand the huge amounts of data that traders deal, instead of using old-fashioned flat screens.
Alışveriş trendlerindeki değişimler sonucunda çok yakın bir gelecekte telefona ya da cüzdana ihtiyaç duymadan alışveriş yapabileceğiz. Teknolojideki son gelişmelerle, mobil ticaret ve en son olarak biyometrik uygulamalardan biri olan parmak izi, yüz tanıma ve bluetooth ile de alışveriş yapabilmek mümkün olacak.
Sanal deneme kabinleri, içinde ürün veya çalışan olmayan mağazalar karşımıza çıkacak yeni konseptler olacak
We believe that technology is going to continue to evolve to the point where humans and computers are speaking to each other in a more natural and effortless way.
Wearable computing, and specifically the Myo armband, is starting to bridge the gap in human-computer interaction.
Her Yerde Olan ama Görülmeyen Bilgisayarlar: Peki ya kontak lenslerimize de bir mikroçip takılabilirse? Gelecekte mikroçipler gittikçe küçülecek ve görülmez hale gelecekler. ABI Research tarafından yapılan araştırmaya göre 2016 yılına kadar yıllık 100 milyon kablosuz giyilebilen tıbbi cihaz ünitesi satılacağı düşünülmektedir. Benzer şekilde giyilebilen spor ekipmanlarının sayısını da yıllık 80 milyona ulaşması öngörülüyor.
We believe that technology is going to continue to evolve to the point where humans and computers are speaking to each other in a more natural and effortless way. Wearable computing, and specifically the Myo armband, is starting to bridge the gap in human-computer interaction.
Her Yerde Olan ama Görülmeyen Bilgisayarlar: Peki ya kontak lenslerimize de bir mikroçip takılabilirse? Gelecekte mikroçipler gittikçe küçülecek ve görülmez hale gelecekler. ABI Research tarafından yapılan araştırmaya göre 2016 yılına kadar yıllık 100 milyon kablosuz giyilebilen tıbbi cihaz ünitesi satılacağı düşünülmektedir. Benzer şekilde giyilebilen spor ekipmanlarının sayısını da yıllık 80 milyona ulaşması öngörülüyor.
https://techcrunch.com/2015/06/10/a-periodic-table-of-wearable-technology/
En alt sıra endüstriler. Bir üstünde Donanımlar, cihazlar-akıllı gözlükler, akıllı saatleri, çevre birimleri vb. Endüstri Serilerindekilerle birleştiğinde işlerin yapılmasını sağlar.
En istenen özellik: See What I See (Hidrojenin yerinde duruyor)
Communicatin Series: real-time collaboration için gerekli konsept gereksinimler.
Bir işin medya ile olan capture, transmit, interact ihtiyaçları için Document and Share Series
The World in 2030: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbsUc_rwttQ
Surgeons reroute nerves to enable paralyzed people to use their hands.
The World in 2030: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbsUc_rwttQ
Artificial blood produced from stem cells hits the market.
The World in 2030: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbsUc_rwttQ
Cost of Sloar Panels, per watt, equals 0.5 USD
World Economic Forum ‘Technology Tipping Points and Social Impact Report’ 2015: 800 bilgi teknolojileri ve iletişim sektöründe çalışan teknoloji üst düzey Yöneticisi ve uzmanıyla yapılan anket. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2017/10/tech-life-predictions-for-2030/
What Year 2030 Will Look Like - 7 Future Tech Innovations. 2024’te 3-Boyutlu Organ Nakli gerçekleşmiş olacak.
2024 itibarı ile insan vücuduna implant edilmiş ilk akıllı telefonu göreceğiz.
WEF 2018 Survey’e katılanların %80’I inanmakta. Konuşmak yerine beyindeki düşünceler beyin dalgaları yoluyla birbirine transfer edilecek.
The report has the following key findings:
The research estimates that wearable device shipments will grow at a CAGR of approximately 22% between 2018 and 2021.
By the end of 2021, wearable devices will represent a market worth $45 Billion with over 250 Million annual unit shipments.
In terms of annual wearable device unit shipments, the top 5 vendors – Apple, Xiaomi, Fitbit, Samsung and Garmin – collectively account for more than 55% of the market.
Cellular connectivity and associated advanced capabilities - such as VoLTE (Voice over LTE) - are increasingly being integrated into consumer oriented wearables such as smartwatches.
The report estimates that wearable devices will help mobile operators drive more than $12 Billion in service revenue by the end of 2021, following a CAGR of approximately 36% between 2018 and 2021.
As wearable technology vendors seek to minimize dependence on hardware sales, new business models are continuing to gain popularity - ranging from corporate wellness programs to sports performance analytics.
The World in 2030: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbsUc_rwttQ
World Population forecasted to reach 8,500,766,000. May 2018 7.6 milyar
Daha çok gıda, daha çok enerji, daha çok sağlıklı yaşam (artan yaşlılık sınırı ile)-gençlerin vergi yükü olarak üstlenmesi demek, güvenlik ihtiyacı (göçler, terörizm) gereksinimi demek.
https://espas.secure.europarl.europa.eu/orbis/sites/default/files/espas_files/about/espas-report-2015.pdf
Ayrıca (Bu slide EBRD Digital Transformation Konferansında Simon Ostergaard tarafından sunulmuştur)
Credit Suisse 2017 Global Wealth Report
By: StatistaCharts (Infografik). Dünya gelirlerinin %46’sını dünya yetişkin nüfusunun %0.7’si elinde tutuyor.
Dünya gelirlerinin %85’ini dünya yetişkin nüfusunun %8.6’sı elinde tutuyor.
Dünya refahının %3’ünü %71 yetişkin nüfus bölüşmek zorunda kalıyor.
Global Trends 2030: https://www.google.com.tr/search?q=projections+on+migration+by+2030&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=uPHi_0gUf75spM%253A%252CHsRNZCXyTFc7BM%252C_&usg=AI4_-kRcbN6bFT4idpa5i2E5R9DNzTo5sA&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwjA-YDdpJreAhUOZlAKHbvpD3cQ9QEwBnoECAAQBA#imgrc=uPHi_0gUf75spM:
Kaynak: UN Population Division (Median Age) (2017)
OUR WORLD in DATA: https://ourworldindata.org/life-expectancy
The median age deivides the population in 2 parts of equal size; that is, there are as many persons with ages above the median as there are with ages below the median. There are considerable differences between world regions – many parts of sub-Saharan Africa are much younger since both birth rates and mortality are higher.
The World in 2030: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RbsUc_rwttQ (ScienceNature)
Humanity prepares to land on Mars within the next decade
http://mars.natgeotv.com/ca/2016/10/06/want-humans-on-mars-start-with-a-martian-space-station-2-4/
A major aerospace company just jumped into the Mars fray: Lockheed Martin has announced its plans for getting humans to the Red Planet by 2028.
Rather than going right to the surface, this scheme would put a spacecraft in Mars orbit that would do a solid impression of the International Space Station.