U.S. economy added 113,000 jobs in January. This growth number is below average, but dropped the unemployment rate 10 basis points to a recovery low of 6.6 percent. In a bright spot, unemployment for high school and college graduates is lower, however labor-force participation in this key demographic is still suppressed. Total unemployment sits at 12.7 percent, above historic norms but an improvement from December’s 13.1.
See details on the data, including demographic, geographic and industry breakdowns, in this report featuring research from the Bureau of Labor Statistics and Jones Lang LaSalle.
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U.S. unemployment rate data and trends: January 2014
1. Below-average monthly
gains mask a broadening
recovery
U.S. employment situation: September 2013
U.S. employment situation: January 2013
Release date: October 22, 2013
Release date: February 7, 2014
2. What were January’s bright spots and challenges?
Overview
•
•
•
•
•
•
The U.S. economy added 113,000
jobs in January, representing
below-average growth.
The unemployment rate dropped
by 10 basis points to a recovery
low of 6.6 percent.
Total non-farm employment is at
99.4 percent of its previous peak
figure.
90.1 of the 8.7 million jobs lost
during the recession have been
recovered.
Construction was the subsector
with the highest monthly growth,
while PBS led year-on-year gains.
Tech remains the dominant
industry for job growth, with
energy at national levels.
Bright spots
•
•
•
•
•
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Unemployment for high school and
college graduates is below the
official rate of 6.6 percent.
Although wobbling, initial claims
remain near recovery lows and
below the 400,000-claim threshold
for an expanding economy.
Bucking the trend seen in previous
months, office-using industries’
share of gains up to 30.0 percent
in January.
Consumer confidence is up at 80.7
points on the heels of a
diversifying recovery.
Geographically, growth is being
seen increasingly outside of Texas
and tech hubs.
Challenges
•
•
•
•
•
Total unemployment remains
above historic norms at 12.7
percent.
Labor force participation for high
school and college graduates,
although up, is still suppressed.
The public sector witnessed its
largest monthly contraction in
employment (-29,000 jobs) since
late 2012.
Office-using growth continues to
be subdued, with flat information
payrolls and a 2,000-job
contraction in financial activities.
Temporary help services
continues to grow, almost at 2.8
million jobs.
OVERVIEW
2
3. 150,000
0
120,000
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
75,000
160,000
113,000
280,000
274,000
237,000
202,000
201,000
199,000
203,000
164,000
149,000
214,000
203,000
225,000
197,000
161,000
150,000
243,000
226,000
196,000
164,000
141,000
110,000
88,000
221,000
183,000
200,000
96,000
122,000
106,000
88,000
110,000
300,000
243,000
226,000
220,000
360,000
360,000
400,000
96,000
100,000
121,000
250,000
Oct-10
Nov-10
Dec-11
Jan-11
Feb-11
Mar-11
Apr-11
May-11
Jun-11
Jul-11
Aug-11
Sep-11
Oct-11
Nov-11
Dec-11
Jan-12
Feb-12
Mar-12
Apr-12
May-12
Jun-12
Jul-12
Aug-12
Sep-12
Oct-12
Nov-12
Dec-12
Jan-13
Feb-13
Mar-13
Apr-13
May-13
Jun-13
Jul-13
Aug-13
Sep-13
Oct-13
Nov-13
Dec-13
Jan-14
1-month net change
January posts a below-average monthly gain of
113,000 jobs; revisions show more stability in 2013
350,000
50,000
OVERVIEW
3
4. Revisions bring three-month employment growth to
462,000 jobs, as unemployment declines to 6.6 percent
600
Monthly employment change
12%
Unemployment rate
10%
200
8%
0
6%
-200
-400
4%
-600
2%
-800
-1000
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
0%
OVERVIEW
4
Unemployment rate (%)
One-month net change (thousands)
400
5. 75 months into the cycle, total employment is now less
than 0.6 percent below prior peak levels
Past recessions (40 years)
1973
1981
1990
2001
2007
102%
Pre-recession employment level
Recovered jobs (%)
100%
98%
96%
94%
92%
90%
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 46 48 50 52 54 56 58 60 62 64 66 68 70 72 74
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
OVERVIEW
5
6. 90.1 percent of jobs have been recovered from the
recession; now 900,000 jobs below pre-recession peak
Jobs lost during recession…
Jobs gained during recovery…
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
OVERVIEW
6
7. All office-using jobs have been recovered, but are much
more tech- and management-centered
Office-using jobs lost
during recession…
Office-using jobs gained
during recovery…
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
OVERVIEW
7
8. Construction, PBS, leisure and hospitality and
manufacturing were the drivers of January’s growth…
Construction
48.0
Professional and business services
Construction
Leisure and hospitality
36.0
Leisure and hospitality
24.0
Manufacturing
PBS
Manufacturing
21.0
Durable goods
15.0
Wholesale trade
13.9
Transportation and warehousing
9.9
Temporary help services
8.1
Mining and logging
7.0
Motor vehicles and parts
6.5
Nondurable goods
6.0
Other services
4.0
Health care and social assistance
1.5
Information
0.0
Financial activities
-2.0
Education and health services
-6.0
Retail trade
Government
-12.9
-29.0
-40
-20
0
20
1-month net change (thousands)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
40
60
Four subsectors were responsible for
all net new jobs.
OVERVIEW
8
9. What caused construction’s economy-leading gains in
January? Residential building.
Construction accounted for 42.6 percent of growth in January…
…but represents only 4.3 percent of employment nationally
Residential building
Non-residential specialty contractors
Non-residential specialty contractors
Residential specialty contractors
Heavy and civil engineering
Non-residential building
Heavy and civil engineering
Non-residential building
Residential specialty contractors
All other jobs
Residential building
All other jobs
13.2
12.9
10.1
64.9
8.3
3.6
i
Residential building represented to 11.7
percent of job growth in January…
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Figures in thousands
i
…but is in fact the smallest component
of construction, with 646,000 workers.
SECTOR FOCUS
9
10. …although PBS, leisure and hospitality, retail trade and
education and health dominated year-on-year gains
Professional and business services
656.0
Leisure and hospitality
Retail trade
Education and health services
306.0
Health care and social assistance
Leisure and hospitality
Education and health
Manufacturing
316.0
PBS
Retail trade
433.0
Financial activities
All other jobs
284.6
Temporary help services
228.7
Construction
179.0
Wholesale trade
95.5
Manufacturing
93.0
Durable goods
84.0
Transportation and warehousing
81.2
Financial activities
65.0
Motor vehicles and parts
46.8
Mining and logging
36.0
Other services
26.0
Nondurable goods
9.0
Information
6.0
Government-53.0
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
12-month net change (thousands)
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
600
700
Core subsectors added 83.5 percent
of all jobs over the past 12 months.
OVERVIEW
10
11. Goods-producing employment jumps after slight
contraction in December; service-providing slows
Goods-producing
600
Service-providing
One-month net change (thousands)
400
200
0
-200
-400
-600
-800
-1000
2008
2009
2010
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2011
2012
2013
2014
BRIGHT SPOT
11
12. Both high school and college graduate unemployment
below the national average
Bachelor's degree and higher
High school graduates, no college
12
6.5%
10
8
6
4
2
0
3.2%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
BRIGHT SPOT
12
13. Tech still leading, while energy, mining and utilities
growing, but at national rates of growth
High-tech
Energy, Mining, and Utilities
Office-using industries
Total non-farm
7.0
5.0
12-month % change
3.0
1.0
-1.0
-3.0
-5.0
-7.0
-9.0
-11.0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Moody’s. Note: Due to data lags, high-tech employment only available through December 2013.
2013
OVERVIEW
13
14. Tech is up near recovery norms again after seeing
slowdown in recent months
Year-on-year percent growth
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
BRIGHT SPOT
14
15. Initial unemployment insurance claims hovering
between 330,000 and 350,000 since late 2013
Initial claims
4-week moving average
650,000
600,000
550,000
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
4 week moving average below 400,000 claims
(consistently) means economy is adding jobs
300,000
250,000
Mar-08
Mar-09
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, U.S. Department of Labor
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13
BRIGHT SPOT
15
16. While the recovery is broadening, slightly stronger
growth boosted office-using industries’ share of gains
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
BRIGHT SPOT
16
17. In line with a drop in unemployment, the consumer
confidence index increased to 80.7 points in January
100
12%
Consumer confidence index
Unemployment rate
90
10%
80
70
8%
60
6%
50
40
4%
30
20
2%
10
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2012
2013
2014
0%
BRIGHT SPOT
17
18. Growth is registering in geographies outside of Texas
and tech hubs
Seattle
2.6%
Silicon Valley
3.4%
Charlotte
2.6%
Phoenix
2.5%
Atlanta
2.5%
Austin
2.8%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Houston
3.0%
BRIGHT SPOT
18
19. Although total unemployment fell by 60 basis points to
12.7 percent, it remains above average
Total unemployment U-6
10-year average
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CHALLENGE
19
20. Labor force participation across educational attainment
increases, but still suppressed
79
College graduates
78
62
77
61
76
60
75
74
59
73
High school graduates
College graduates
63
High school grads no college
58
Jan07
Jan08
Jan09
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
Jan10
Jan11
Jan12
Jan13
Jan14
CHALLENGE
20
21. Public sector witnesses largest contraction since late
2012, while private sector growth below historic norms
Private sector hiring up 4.5
million since December 2011
Change in '000s jobs
400
200
0
-200
Public sector shed 112,000
workers since November 2011
-400
-600
-800
-1,000
2008
2009
2010
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2011
2012
2013
2014
CHALLENGE
21
22. Information gains no jobs in January, while financial
activities contracts by 2,000
Information
Professional and business services
Financial activities
150
100
50
0
-50
-100
-150
PBS represented 75.0 percent of office jobs lost in February 2010.
In January 2013, it represented all net new office-using jobs.
-200
-250
-300
2009
2010
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2011
2012
2013
2014
CHALLENGE
22
23. Online help wanted ads fall by 56,800 in January despite
a decrease in unemployment
6,000,000
12.0%
New help wanted ads
Unemployment rate
4,000,000
8.0%
3,000,000
6.0%
2,000,000
4.0%
2.0%
0
0.0%
2008
2009
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Conference Board
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Unemployment rate
10.0%
1,000,000
Online help wanted ads
5,000,000
CHALLENGE
23
24. A slight slowdown in monthly growth keeps temporary
help services just under 2.8 million jobs
Temporary employment monthly net change
Temporary employment
60
Monthly net change in jobs (ths)
3,000
2,800
40
2,600
2,400
20
2,200
0
2,000
-20
1,800
-40
Temporary employment (ths)
80
1,600
-60
1,400
-80
1,200
-100
2009
2010
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
2011
2012
2013
2014
1,000
CHALLENGE
24
25. Midwestern and East Coast markets still lag the rest
of the country
Detroit
0.8%
Milwaukee
0.6%
Cleveland
-0.6%
New Jersey
0.3%
St. Louis
0.6%
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
CHALLENGE
25
27. In addition to
unemployment reports,
we regularly publish
research on economic and
other factors that impact
commercial real estate.
>> See all research