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July 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook

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With 213,000 net new jobs added in June, the labor market’s expansion now totals 92 consecutive month, placing it among the longest periods of post-war expansion.

Remarkably, gains have been found largely across industries, although retail trade posted contraction of 21,600 jobs after showing signs of recovery earlier in the year.

A slight boost to the participation rate pushed unemployment up 20 basis points to 4.0 percent, however.

Publicado en: Economía y finanzas
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July 2018 U.S. employment update and outlook

  1. 1. National employment situation: June 2018 July 6, 2018
  2. 2. June 2018 U.S. labor market at a glance 2 +213,000 (92 consecutive months of growth) 1-month net change +2,374,000 (+1.6% y-o-y) 12-month change +962,000 10-year average annual growth 4.0% Unemployment rate 6,698,000 (+9.7% y-o-y) Job openings -30bp 12-month change in unemployment 62.9% Labor force participation rate 5,578,000 (+6.8% y-o-y) Hires 3,351,000 (+9.1% y-o-y) Quits Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  3. 3. The expansion has now reached 92 months of growth With 213,000 net new jobs added in June, the labor market’s expansion now totals 92 consecutive month, placing it among the longest periods of post-war expansion. Remarkably, gains have been found largely across industries, although retail trade posted contraction of 21,600 jobs after showing signs of recovery earlier in the year. A slight boost to the participation rate pushed unemployment up 20 basis points to 4.0 percent, however. Labor force expansion can’t keep up with demand Job openings jumped closer to 6.7 million in June, resulting in an annual spike of 9.7 percent (6.1x faster than the rate of job creation), indicative of employers being unable to find the talent they need. Job openings rates, particularly in knowledge-intensive industries, are also now routinely exceeding 5.0 percent. Worker confidence is also continuing to rise: hires rose by 9.1 percent to 3.4 million. Inflation is eating away at wage growth Even with a significant shortage of talent in almost all metro areas, wage growth isn’t budging at 2.7 percent. Until recently, lower inflation as a result of stagnant energy prices helped to keep disposable income rising, but is now at 2.8 percent and likely to see some degree of further growth, leading to flattening wages in real terms. Wage growth continues to trend divergently between office-using and non-office-using sectors, with the gap between the two now at 100 basis points. June 2018 U.S. labor market highlights 3Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  4. 4. 0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 1-monthnetchangeEmployment growth exceeded consensus expectations in June, with the labor market adding 213,000 jobs Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 4
  5. 5. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% -1,000 -800 -600 -400 -200 0 200 400 600 Unemploymentrate(%) 1-monthnetchange(thousands) 1-month net change Unemployment rate An increase in the labor force participation rate pushed unemployment up slightly to 4.0% 5Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  6. 6. 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 6,500 7,000 Jobopenings(thousands)Job openings rose to yet another record of nearly 6.7 million, indicative of acute labor shortages 6Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  7. 7. 3.1% 3.3% 3.4% 3.6% 3.9% 4.3% 5.1% 5.5% 5.7% 6.0% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% Construction Financial activities Manufacturing Mining and logging Other services Trade, transportation and utilities Education and health Leisure and hospitality Professional and business services Information Job openings rate (%) Job openings rates are rising sharply in service-based and knowledge-intensive sectors 7Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  8. 8. 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 4,500 5,000 5,500 6,000 Hires(thousands)Hiring remains level at 5.5 million per month, as talent shortages make raising growth harder to achieve 8Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  9. 9. -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12-month%change Wage growth Inflation Inflation at 2.8% is now overtaking flat wage growth, despite a shortage of workers 9Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  10. 10. 1.7% 2.0% 2.1% 2.6% 2.7% 2.9% 2.9% 3.1% 3.4% 4.6% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% Manufacturing Mining and logging Trade, transportation and utilities Other services Professional and business services Education and health Construction Information Leisure and hospitality Financial activities 12-month wage growth (%) Non-office-using industries continue to pull down overall wage growth; gap remains large at 100bp 10Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics +3.5% Office-using wage growth +2.5% Non-office-using wage growth
  11. 11. -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ChangesinceJanuary2007(%) Civilian labor force Employed Since 2017, employment growth has exceeded the labor force, which will accelerate unemployment declines 11Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment growth above labor force growth Employment growth below labor force growth
  12. 12. 62% 63% 64% 65% 66% 67% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Laborforceparticipationrate(%)The labor force participation rate rose to 62.9% in June, partially responsible for a slight rise in unemployment 12Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  13. 13. -21.6 -0.3 0.0 2.9 4.0 8.0 11.0 13.0 15.4 16.0 25.0 36.0 50.0 54.0 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 Retail trade Utilities Information Wholesale trade Mining and logging Financial activities Government Construction Transportation and warehousing Other services Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing Professional and business services Education and health 1-month net change (thousands) Manufacturing posted a strong 36,000-job gain in June, with education, health and PBS remaining leaders 13Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  14. 14. -28.0 -1.0 17.0 57.0 62.8 82.9 99.0 127.0 164.2 261.0 282.0 285.0 445.0 521.0 -100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Information Utilities Government Mining and logging Wholesale trade Retail trade Other services Financial activities Transportation and warehousing Leisure and hospitality Construction Manufacturing Education and health Professional and business services 12-month net change (thousands) Construction has risen to become the third-largest contributor to annual job growth 14Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 521.0 445.0 261.0 285.0 127.0 735.0 PBS Education and health Leisure and hospitality Manufacturing Financial activities Retail trade All other jobs Core subsectors added 69.0 percent of all jobs over the past 12 months.
  15. 15. -3% -2% -1% 0% 1% 2% 3% 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12-monthnetchangeAlthough retail trade contracted by 21,600 jobs in June, annual growth remains positive Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics 15
  16. 16. 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% Unemploymentrateforbachelor’sdegreeholders(%)Bachelor’s degree-holder unemployment rose by 30bp in June, but is still near cyclical lows at 2.3% 16Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  17. 17. -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 50 100 150 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 1-monthnetchange(thousands) Professional and business services Financial activities Information Office-using job creation has stabilized, with PBS consistently adding 40,000-50,000 jobs per month 17Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  18. 18. -10% -8% -6% -4% -2% 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 12-month%change Tech Energy, mining and utilities Office-using Total non-farm Across sectors, annual growth levels are unchanged apart from energy, which is continuing its rebound 18Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  19. 19. 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 450,000 500,000 550,000 600,000 650,000 700,000 Initialunemploymentclaimsperweek Intial weekly claims 4-week moving average Seasonally-adjusted initial unemployment claims are also staying put at 225,000 per week 19Source: JLL Research, U.S. Department of Labor
  20. 20. 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140 ConsumerconfidenceindexTrade uncertainty has yet to meaningfully affect consumer confidence 20Source: JLL Research, Conference Board
  21. 21. 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 12% 14% 16% 18% 20% 12-month%change Total unemployment 10-year average Total unemployment, like the headline rate, rose by 20bp and now stands at 7.8% 21Source: JLL Research, Bureau of Labor Statistics
  22. 22. © 2018 Jones Lang LaSalle IP, Inc. All rights reserved. 22 Phil Ryan Phil.Ryan@am.jll.com 212 292 8040

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