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Office market in the Greater Paris Region
Q4 2012
Good resilience of the
rental and investment
markets in 2012
Unexpected momentum in 2nd semester under adverse economic
conditions
For the third consecutive year, the immediately available supply
hardly changed this quarter with a total of 3,585,000 sq m.
Prime rent in the CBD fell slightly at the end of the year and now
totals €770 per sq m.
€10.9 billion invested since the start of the year – a slight drop of
8% in one year.
30 deals exceeding €100 million registered in 2012 for over €6
billion.
Prime yields did not change during Q4 and were positioned in a
range between 4.50 and 5%.
On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 2
The leasing market thwarts
the forecasts
Against all expectations the leasing market in 2012 showed good
resilience to adverse economic conditions. After a slow 1st semester
and down nearly 20% compared to the previous year, Q3 and Q4
showed unexpected momentum. In total, 2,380,000 sq m were
leased in Greater Paris Region, which is close to the 2011 level.
Ultimately, the market only fell 3.4%
Large transactions buoyed the market
Large transactions buoyed the market, particularly in 2nd semester,
setting a new record with the signature of the Balard transaction by
the Ministry of Defence for a total surface area of 135,000 sq m.
Other significant transactions were registered on the market: France
Telecom for 69,000 sq m in Châtillon (Q3), the Ministry of Ecology
and Sustainable Development in the “Tour Esplanade” in La
Défense for 53,000 sq m (Q4), Sanofi for 50,000 sq m in the
“Campus Val de Bièvre” in Gentilly (Q3), Allianz for 35,000 sq m in
the “Athéna” tower in La Défense (Q4) or Nexity for nearly 22,000 sq
m in the CBD in “Solstys” (Q4).
In total, 70 transactions exceeding 5,000 sq m were registered this
year, including 12 over 20,000 sq m. They represented 47% of the
take-up in 2012 (1.1 million sq m), an amount unmatched on the
market. The leasing market, driven for two years by very large
transactions, has developed with a growing number of pre-lets and
turnkeys (rental and purchase). Thus, concerning the scope of
transactions exceeding 20,000 sq m, the share of pre-lets was over
90% and the share of turnkeys and own accounts was two thirds.
The Inner Suburbs on top
The Paris markets and the Outer Suburbs fell (-10% and -14%
respectively) in favour of the Inner Suburbs, where business
increased by 8%.
In Paris, the sectors that experienced the greatest slowdown are
Paris 12/13 (where demand has been cut in two), Paris 5/6/7 (which
lost a third of its business in one year), and Paris 3/4/10/11 (-28%).
Overall the left bank markets were penalised by very low vacancy
rates not exceeding 4%. Even in the Paris 14/15 sector if we
exclude the Ministry of Defence transaction, which accounts for
135,000 sq m, demand totalled 63,000 sq m, two times less than
last year.
In the CBD, lets were also down (-13%). However, the good results
of Q4 helped close the gap in the sector, which was 26% at the end
of September. Large transactions, numbering 6 for 55,000 sq m this
year were down compared to 2011 (7 transactions over 5,000 sq m
for 70,000 sq m). In Q4, there was the Nexity transaction in “Solstys”
(22,000 sq m) and that of Allianz in “Opera Italiens” (5,000 sq m).
The Inner Suburbs, the Southern Inner Suburbs and the Southern
Bend registered a good level of activity, with the signatures at the
end of year of Sodexo in “Horizons” in Boulogne-Billancourt (10,000
sq m) and EDF in the “Viva” in Malakoff (8,000 sq m). The abundant
quality supply close to the capital, attractive rents following
readjustments of values, and good accessibility of these markets
have attracted businesses.
The Northern Inner Suburbs, too, for the second consecutive year
registered very good results with more than 200,000 sq m in 2012,
i.e. a level not reached since 2000. Transaction activity exceeding
5,000 sq m was particularly vigorous, with no fewer than 10
transactions compared to two last year (including SFR). In Q4 alone,
SNCF took the lease for “Le Monet” and “City One” in Saint-Denis
(both 20,000 sq m, in addition to taking the lease for “Innovatis 2” in
Q3). Siemens pre-let the “Sisley” selling the ZAC of Landy II. And
Samsung moved into “Ovalie” in Saint-Ouen, after a slow 2011 for
large transactions in the town. These transactions exclusively were
for new buildings under construction or recently delivered buildings.
In La Défense, the good performance in Q4 also ensured the
business district ended the year on a positive note. The market
therefore reconnected with large users that have been lacking in
recent years. In total 162,000 sq m will have been leased in 2012
(+39%), a level comparable to 2009. A result that is also positive for
Péri-Défense (+8% yoy).
On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 3
Status quo for immediate supply
For the third consecutive year, immediate supply remained almost
stable with 3,585,000 sq m available in Greater Paris Region, with
the growing proportion of pre-lets and turnkeys not impacting the
stock of vacant premises. The vacancy rate now stands at 6.8% at
the regional level. Although the level of immediate supply remains
stable, Paris is still one of the European cities where the immediate
vacancy rate is the most restricted.
The market is still showing shortages and oversupply from one
sector to another. With a vacancy rate of 4.4%, the supply in Inner
Paris has tended to fall faster than the average (-16% over 2 years),
whereas it has steadily increased in the Inner Suburbs (15% in 2
years), and mainly in the Western Crescent (18% in 2 years), which
also has the bulk of new supply and deliveries. In Greater Paris
Region, the share of new buildings available continues to decrease
gradually and is now less than 22% (compared to 30% at the height
in 2009). However, it remains true that behind this average,
significant disparities appear between sectors. The Inner Suburbs
(including La Défense) to date has the majority of the new supply
immediately available with a total of over 500,000 sq m, i.e. 65% of
the vacant new supply of Greater Paris Region, unlike Paris, which
has four times less.
Rent under pressure
Concerning prime rental values, CBD prime rent fell slightly at the
end of the year to €770 per sq m due to a lower number of
transactions over €800 per sq m. It remains the benchmark market
in the region.
In La Défense, prime rent remained stable at €530 per sq m. The
upturn in the leasing market will only happen with the readjustment
of values. Therefore, 2013 should be a year of transition, before a
more marked upturn in 2014-2015 once value corrections have
been made, and the supply renewed.
In general, rents are attacked by businesses, which are logically
reducing their costs. Some owners have started to adjust their
values downwards, more in line with market reality, which has
changed in the past 5 years. Caution is still the order of the day for
owners.
Outlook
The economic climate leads us to adopt a cautious outlook for the
market in 2013. We expect the level of take-up to be slightly down
compared to 2012, between 2 and 2.1 million sq m.
Demand will remain mainly motivated by a search for savings and
streamlining of occupied surface areas by bringing together teams,
driving companies to search for the best cost and introducing
competition.
“Lease renegotiations, enjoying rapid growth this year, will
undoubtedly occupy a significant share of the market next year.
However, companies will no longer forego taking the opportunities
on new buildings or those to be delivered, which could fuel take-up
in 2013” emphasises Jacques Bagge, Head of Leasing at Jones
Lang LaSalle.
Established tertiary districts, which are currently offering attractive
rental terms, could benefit from this momentum as the difference in
rent between central sites and peripheral sites is tending to shrink.
Availability is abundant, particularly in the Inner Suburbs and there
is no shortage in the supply of new properties. In addition,
approximately 430,000 sq m of new projects currently under
construction in Greater Paris Region, to be delivered by the end of
2013, will increase the number of new buildings available in some
“supplier” sectors.
Within this context, rents will remain under a downward price
pressure, particularly in sectors where the available supply exceeds
demand. Headline rental values will continue to fall in 2013,
whereas economic values are already low. Incentives could even
increase at the discretion of the owners in some “over-supplier”
sectors.
In Inner Paris, and particularly in the CBD, pockets of scarcity
observed for prime buildings should maintain rent at a high level.
Consulting firms and law firms, in competition for the few new
buildings in the sector, are willing to pay the high price.
On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 4
A solid investment market in
2012, despite no "fiscal
carrot"
The investment market ended 2012 with a total volume of €10.9
billion invested, and therefore showed a slight slowdown of -8% in
its activity compared to 2011. However, it achieved a better
performance than expected at the start of the year.
Last year, the investment market experienced a significant
performance in Q4, with close to €6 billion investment, i.e. nearly
half the volume of the year. In 2012, Q4 confirmed the trend of a
more active market at the end of the year, but to a lesser extent with
€3.8 billion invested (1/3 of the volumes).
“The 2012 performance was built solidly throughout the year, with
two leading quarters: Q2 and Q4,” commented Stephan von Barczy,
Head of Capital Markets at Jones Lang LaSalle.
Very strong activity on transactions exceeding €100 million in
Q4
In 2012, 30 deals exceeding €100 million were finalised for over €6
billion, i.e. 56% of the market. If we analyse the risk level of these
sales, we can see that investors are still cautious in this time of
economic turmoil. They are mainly positioned on secure or ultra-
secure products (51% and 24% respectively); in summary, on
assets without any vacancy, and with fixed-term leases of at least 6
years at the time of purchase.
In Q4 alone, 13 transactions exceeding €100 million were recorded.
“The investment market has confirmed this year, despite funds
remaining more restricted than in the past, that liquidity exists in all
market segments,” says Stephan von Barczy.
Among the recent major transactions in 2012, we could cite the
acquisition by PREDICA of “23-25 rue de l'Université” in the 7th
district of Paris for an estimated amount of €250 million, the
acquisition by QATAR INVESTMENT AUTHORITY (QIA) of “116bis
Avenue des Champs Elysées” for €160 million, and that of the
“Start”, a forward funding property acquired by a French institutional
investor, 100% leased to EGIS for a total of around €110 million
(Jones Lang LaSalle transaction).
The interest of “value added” investors for “secondary” assets is
real. However, this requires the market to have “non-prime” assets
to trade, that buyers and sellers agree on the valuation of the
assets, and that they are fundable.
The re-internationalisation of the market is underway
At the end of 2012, the re-internationalisation of the market was
confirmed, with a foreign capital share of 46% of the investment
market in Greater Paris Region. In the segment of transactions
exceeding €100 million, the ratio is even higher and represents 64%
of capital invested.
For two years sovereign funds have invested heavily in the Paris
market creating a new geography of the source of funds: Norway,
China, Qatar in the first half of the year; Arab Emirates, United
States and Azerbaijan in the second half. Thus, in Q4, LASALLE
INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT (LIM) acquired for ABU DHABI
INVESTMENT AUTHORITY (ADIA) “90 boulevard Pasteur” for €252
million, and the Azerbaijan oil fund acquired “8 place Vendôme” for
€135 million.
Whereas the French market was historically very European and
North American, capital flows in 2012 have moved east.
French investors were also very active in 2012. Their influence in
the market is still significant: 54% of volumes invested. Institutional
investors and real estate investment trusts (benefiting from record
inflows), focused on the segment of transactions below €100 million
where they represent 72% of amounts invested.
As for German investors – historically active purchasers – they were
absent during HY1 (only 3% of invested capital) or were even net
sellers. However, they reappeared in HY2, totalling 7% of capital
invested in the Paris region market.
On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 5
48% of capital invested in Inner Paris
Inner Paris captured 48% of the investments made at the end of
2012 in the Paris region market. This high proportion is explained by
the very large transactions completed since the start of the year with
different sovereign funds in Paris assets. In Q4, five of the six
largest sales were also finalised in Paris: "90 boulevard Pasteur" in
the 15th district, “23-25 rue de l'Université” in the 7th, “Sequana” and
“Austerlitz II” in the 13th and finally “116bis Avenue des Champs-
Elysées” in the 8th.
The La Défense market experienced a difficult year in 2012 with
only 5 transactions, representing €234 million invested. The only
sale in Q4 was that of STAM with the “Arago” tower for
approximately €20 million.
The unit volume of assets and the performance of the leasing
market fell sharply, coupled with a shortage of bank financing, still
explain the loss of interest of investors for this sector.
Significant fall in forward funding sales this year, and in a more
marked way for unsecured sales
The forward funding market slowed sharply in 2012: more than €1
billion invested compared to nearly €1.9 billion last year (-41%).
Unsecured transactions fell sharply in 2012, from a total investment
of €1.3 billion in 2011 to less than €400 million.
In Q4, five new forward funding transactions were recorded for more
than €317 million. Only one of them relates to an unsecured asset,
AMUNDI acquired a 16,000 sq m building “Helios” located in Massy.
Stability of yields during Q4
Prime yields remained stable in Q4, and in the Golden Triangle,
prime rates are positioned in a range between 4.50% and 5.00%.
However, investors are still willing, in some cases, to position
themselves at lower yields for products, the cash flow of which is
secure over a long period, particularly medium-sized products (€50
million) which are “trophy” buildings (situated in Paris, in cut stone,
with top of the range services).
Outlook
Subject to renewal of the supply, the Paris market is expected to
reach comparable levels of activity in 2013. We therefore anticipate
a volume invested between €10 and €11 billion next year. Moreover,
the start of the year should be more active than in previous years
with a greater number of products on the market. The arbitrage
plans of investors have begun much earlier than usual, and should
rollout at the start of the year.
In an uncertain political and fiscal context, investors remain very
cautious in their analysis, as long as rental values are under
pressure. However, the attractiveness of the Paris market at the
European level and the resilience of its real estate market are all
factors that will continue to attract investors from around the world.
We await the arrival of new investors from Asia, such as Korean and
Malaysian investors, as well as Chinese insurance companies,
which have recently been authorised to invest in overseas property.
German investors should also be present.
The enthusiasm of sovereign funds for the Paris market could
slowdown. After having invested in London and Paris, some funds
are looking to invest in other "core" European markets such as
Germany or Switzerland.
With regard to French investors, insurance companies should still be
active on the Paris market to acquire quality assets with fixed long-
term leases.
In terms of product typology, purchasers will undoubtedly be
primarily looking for quality assets, with secure yields. Prime yields
are therefore likely to be maintained for the best assets.
On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 6
Key market indicators – Q4 2012
(Source: Immostat/Jones Lang LaSalle)
CBD 344 903 -13% 340 000 5,0% 770 520
Paris Centre West (excl. CBD) 87 244 -5% 110 000 6,1% 595 401
Total Paris Centre West 432 147 -12% 450 000 5,2% 770 502
Paris 5/6/7 42 239 -30% 32 000 2,4% 705 464
Paris 12/13 61 313 -57% 67 000 3,5% 470 399
Paris 14/15 198 449 62% 83 000 4,1% 495 392
Total Paris South 302 001 -7% 182 000 3,5% 705 418
Paris 3/4/10/11 64 846 -28% 51 000 3,2% 425 338
Paris 18/19/20 53 004 17% 54 000 4,4% 300 249
Total Paris North East 117 850 -13% 105 000 3,7% 425 294
Total Inner Paris 851 998 -10% 737 000 4,4% 770 395
La Défense 162 522 39% 209 000 6,5% 530 417
Northern Bend 63 060 -68% 267 000 14,3% 305 208
Péri Défense 188 538 8% 312 000 13,3% 375 250
Neuilly/ Levallois 77 676 -16% 172 000 12,0% 460 331
Southern Bend 183 446 38% 227 000 8,6% 480 339
Total Western Crescent 512 720 -14% 978 000 11,8% 480 282
Northern Inner Suburbs 203 272 4% 244 000 10,2% 340 224
Eastern Inner Suburbs 45 747 -7% 123 000 8,0% 315 224
Southern Inner Suburbs 189 955 157% 171 000 8,6% 350 238
Total Inner Rim 438 974 38% 538 000 9,1% 350 229
RoissyPole 34 627 -3% 80 000 6,7% 205 141
Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines 54 250 -32% 159 000 11,1% 210 131
Marne-la-Vallée 34 171 -20% 133 000 9,4% 210 151
Southern Outer Suburbs 194 256 -6% 359 000 10,2% 240 152
Rest of Outer Suburbs 97 120 -17% 392 000 3,5% 240 142
Total Outer Suburbs 414 424 -14% 1 123 000 6,0% 240 143
Paris Region 2 380 638 -3% 3 585 000 6,8% 770 319
Immediate
vacancy rate as
at 31/12/2012
Prime rent
(€/sq m/yr)
Average second
hand rent
(€/sq m/yr)
Immostat Sector
Take-up as at
31/12/2012 (sq m)
Evolution
y O y
Immediate supply as
at 31/12/2012
(sq m)
On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 7
Distribution of investment volumes by sector
(Source: Immostat/Jones Lang LaSalle)
Distribution of investment by asset classification
(Source: Immostat/Jones Lang LaSalle)
Prime yields
(Source: Immostat/Jones Lang LaSalle)
Immostat zone
Investment volumes
as at end of December 2008
(in € million)
%
Investment volumes
as at end of December 2009
(in € million)
%
Investment volumes
as at end of December 2010
(in € million)
%
Investment volumes
as at end of December 2011
(in € million)
%
Investment volumes
as at end of December 2012
(in € million)
%
CBD 1 551 18% 1 565 30% 1 648 19% 1 950 17% 2 796 26%
Paris Center West (excl. CBD) 208 2% 89 2% 323 4% 725 6% 444 4%
Southern Paris 574 7% 703 13% 303 3% 1 469 13% 1 831 17%
North Eastern Paris 212 3% 86 2% 448 5% 432 4% 204 2%
La Défense 854 10% 235 4% 557 7% 134 1% 234 2%
Western Crescent 2 092 25% 737 14% 1 487 17% 2 664 22% 1 473 14%
Inner suburb 1 201 14% 328 6% 1 487 17% 1 470 12% 1 068 10%
Outer suburb 1 317 16% 625 12% 1 570 18% 1 455 12% 945 9%
Greater Paris Region portfolio 444 5% 894 17% 832 10% 1 578 13% 1 911 18%
Greater Paris Region 8 451 100% 5 262 100% 8 656 100% 11 878 100% 10 906 100%
Immostat zone
Investment volumes
as at end of December 2008
(in € million)
%
Investment volumes
as at end of December 2009
(in € million)
%
Investment volumes
as at end of December 2010
(in € million)
%
Investment volumes
as at end of December 2011
(in € million)
%
Investment volumes
as at end of December 2012
(in € million)
%
Office 7 687 91% 4 553 87% 7 213 83% 10 684 90% 8 797 81%
Light industrial / Mixed 177 2% 202 4% 117 1% 206 2% 164 1%
Warehouse 131 2% 123 2% 325 4% 203 2% 294 3%
Retail 457 5% 384 7% 1 001 12% 785 6% 1 650 15%
Paris region 8 451 100% 5 262 100% 8 656 100% 11 878 100% 10 906 100%
Office prime yield range
in Q4 2009 (%)
Office prime yield range
in Q4 2010 (%)
Office prime yield range
in Q4 2011 (%)
Office prime yield range
in Q4 2012 (%)
Yearly evolution
Golden Triangle 5.75 - 6.25 4.75 -5.25 4.75 - 5.25 4.50 - 5.00 m
Financial district 6.00 - 6.50 5.00 - 5.50 5.00 - 5.50 4.75 - 5.25 m
Paris 5/6/7 6.00 - 6.50 5.25 - 5.75 5.25 - 5.75 5.00 - 5.50 m
Paris 12/13 6.25 - 6.75 5.25 - 5.75 5.50 - 6.00 5.50 - 6.00 g
Paris 14/15 6.25 - 6.75 5.25 - 5.75 5.50 - 6.00 5.50 - 6.00 g
Paris 3/4/10/11 6.25 - 6.75 5.50 - 6.00 5.75 - 6.25 5.75 - 6.25 g
Paris 18/19/20 7.00 - 7.50 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 g
La Défense 6.25 - 6.75 5.50 - 6.00 5.75 - 6.25 6.00 - 6.50 k
Northern loop 7.00 - 7.50 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 g
Péri Défense 7.00 - 7.50 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 g
Neuilly-Levallois 6.50 - 7.00 5.75 - 6.25 5.75 - 6.25 5.50 - 6.00 m
Southern loop 6.50 - 7.00 5.75 - 6.25 5.75 - 6.25 5.50 - 6.00 m
Northern Inner suburbs 7.00 - 7.50 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 g
Eastern Inner suburbs 7.25 - 7.75 6.50 - 7.00 6.50 - 7.00 6.50 - 7.00 g
Southern Inner suburbs 7.00 - 7.50 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 6.00 - 6.50 m
Jones Lang LaSalle in France
Paris
40-42 rue La Boétie
75008 Paris
Tél. : + 33 (0)1 40 55 15 15
Fax : + 33 (0)1 46 22 28 28
La Défense
Immeuble Le Berkeley
19-29, rue du Capitaine Guynemer
92903 Paris La Défense Cedex
Tél. : + 33 (0)1 49 00 32 50
Fax : + 33 (0)1 49 00 32 59
Saint-Denis
3, rue Jesse Owens
93210 Saint-Denis
Tél. : + 33 (0)1 40 55 15 15
Fax : + 33 (0)1 48 22 52 83
Le Plessis-Robinson
“La Boursidière”
BP 171
92357 Le Plessis-Robinson
Tél. : + 33 (0)1 40 55 15 15
Fax : + 33 (0)1 46 01 06 37
Lyon
55, avenue Foch
69006 Lyon
Tél. : + 33 (0)4 78 89 26 26
Fax : + 33 (0)4 78 89 04 76
Contacts
www.joneslanglasalle.fr
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, inc. 2013 - All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of
Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We
would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them. Printing information: paper, inks, printing process, recycle directive.
Printing information: paper, inks, printing process, recycle directive.
Virginie Houzé
Head of Research
Paris
+33 (0)1 40 55 15 94
virginie.houze@eu.jll.com
Sophie Benaïnous
Research Manager
Paris
+33 (0)1 40 55 85 15
sophie.benainous@eu.jll.com
Manuela Moura
Research Consultant
Paris
+33 (0)1 40 55 85 73
manuela.moura@eu.jll.com

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Office market in the greater Paris region - Q4 2012

  • 1. Office market in the Greater Paris Region Q4 2012 Good resilience of the rental and investment markets in 2012 Unexpected momentum in 2nd semester under adverse economic conditions For the third consecutive year, the immediately available supply hardly changed this quarter with a total of 3,585,000 sq m. Prime rent in the CBD fell slightly at the end of the year and now totals €770 per sq m. €10.9 billion invested since the start of the year – a slight drop of 8% in one year. 30 deals exceeding €100 million registered in 2012 for over €6 billion. Prime yields did not change during Q4 and were positioned in a range between 4.50 and 5%.
  • 2. On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 2 The leasing market thwarts the forecasts Against all expectations the leasing market in 2012 showed good resilience to adverse economic conditions. After a slow 1st semester and down nearly 20% compared to the previous year, Q3 and Q4 showed unexpected momentum. In total, 2,380,000 sq m were leased in Greater Paris Region, which is close to the 2011 level. Ultimately, the market only fell 3.4% Large transactions buoyed the market Large transactions buoyed the market, particularly in 2nd semester, setting a new record with the signature of the Balard transaction by the Ministry of Defence for a total surface area of 135,000 sq m. Other significant transactions were registered on the market: France Telecom for 69,000 sq m in Châtillon (Q3), the Ministry of Ecology and Sustainable Development in the “Tour Esplanade” in La Défense for 53,000 sq m (Q4), Sanofi for 50,000 sq m in the “Campus Val de Bièvre” in Gentilly (Q3), Allianz for 35,000 sq m in the “Athéna” tower in La Défense (Q4) or Nexity for nearly 22,000 sq m in the CBD in “Solstys” (Q4). In total, 70 transactions exceeding 5,000 sq m were registered this year, including 12 over 20,000 sq m. They represented 47% of the take-up in 2012 (1.1 million sq m), an amount unmatched on the market. The leasing market, driven for two years by very large transactions, has developed with a growing number of pre-lets and turnkeys (rental and purchase). Thus, concerning the scope of transactions exceeding 20,000 sq m, the share of pre-lets was over 90% and the share of turnkeys and own accounts was two thirds. The Inner Suburbs on top The Paris markets and the Outer Suburbs fell (-10% and -14% respectively) in favour of the Inner Suburbs, where business increased by 8%. In Paris, the sectors that experienced the greatest slowdown are Paris 12/13 (where demand has been cut in two), Paris 5/6/7 (which lost a third of its business in one year), and Paris 3/4/10/11 (-28%). Overall the left bank markets were penalised by very low vacancy rates not exceeding 4%. Even in the Paris 14/15 sector if we exclude the Ministry of Defence transaction, which accounts for 135,000 sq m, demand totalled 63,000 sq m, two times less than last year. In the CBD, lets were also down (-13%). However, the good results of Q4 helped close the gap in the sector, which was 26% at the end of September. Large transactions, numbering 6 for 55,000 sq m this year were down compared to 2011 (7 transactions over 5,000 sq m for 70,000 sq m). In Q4, there was the Nexity transaction in “Solstys” (22,000 sq m) and that of Allianz in “Opera Italiens” (5,000 sq m). The Inner Suburbs, the Southern Inner Suburbs and the Southern Bend registered a good level of activity, with the signatures at the end of year of Sodexo in “Horizons” in Boulogne-Billancourt (10,000 sq m) and EDF in the “Viva” in Malakoff (8,000 sq m). The abundant quality supply close to the capital, attractive rents following readjustments of values, and good accessibility of these markets have attracted businesses. The Northern Inner Suburbs, too, for the second consecutive year registered very good results with more than 200,000 sq m in 2012, i.e. a level not reached since 2000. Transaction activity exceeding 5,000 sq m was particularly vigorous, with no fewer than 10 transactions compared to two last year (including SFR). In Q4 alone, SNCF took the lease for “Le Monet” and “City One” in Saint-Denis (both 20,000 sq m, in addition to taking the lease for “Innovatis 2” in Q3). Siemens pre-let the “Sisley” selling the ZAC of Landy II. And Samsung moved into “Ovalie” in Saint-Ouen, after a slow 2011 for large transactions in the town. These transactions exclusively were for new buildings under construction or recently delivered buildings. In La Défense, the good performance in Q4 also ensured the business district ended the year on a positive note. The market therefore reconnected with large users that have been lacking in recent years. In total 162,000 sq m will have been leased in 2012 (+39%), a level comparable to 2009. A result that is also positive for Péri-Défense (+8% yoy).
  • 3. On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 3 Status quo for immediate supply For the third consecutive year, immediate supply remained almost stable with 3,585,000 sq m available in Greater Paris Region, with the growing proportion of pre-lets and turnkeys not impacting the stock of vacant premises. The vacancy rate now stands at 6.8% at the regional level. Although the level of immediate supply remains stable, Paris is still one of the European cities where the immediate vacancy rate is the most restricted. The market is still showing shortages and oversupply from one sector to another. With a vacancy rate of 4.4%, the supply in Inner Paris has tended to fall faster than the average (-16% over 2 years), whereas it has steadily increased in the Inner Suburbs (15% in 2 years), and mainly in the Western Crescent (18% in 2 years), which also has the bulk of new supply and deliveries. In Greater Paris Region, the share of new buildings available continues to decrease gradually and is now less than 22% (compared to 30% at the height in 2009). However, it remains true that behind this average, significant disparities appear between sectors. The Inner Suburbs (including La Défense) to date has the majority of the new supply immediately available with a total of over 500,000 sq m, i.e. 65% of the vacant new supply of Greater Paris Region, unlike Paris, which has four times less. Rent under pressure Concerning prime rental values, CBD prime rent fell slightly at the end of the year to €770 per sq m due to a lower number of transactions over €800 per sq m. It remains the benchmark market in the region. In La Défense, prime rent remained stable at €530 per sq m. The upturn in the leasing market will only happen with the readjustment of values. Therefore, 2013 should be a year of transition, before a more marked upturn in 2014-2015 once value corrections have been made, and the supply renewed. In general, rents are attacked by businesses, which are logically reducing their costs. Some owners have started to adjust their values downwards, more in line with market reality, which has changed in the past 5 years. Caution is still the order of the day for owners. Outlook The economic climate leads us to adopt a cautious outlook for the market in 2013. We expect the level of take-up to be slightly down compared to 2012, between 2 and 2.1 million sq m. Demand will remain mainly motivated by a search for savings and streamlining of occupied surface areas by bringing together teams, driving companies to search for the best cost and introducing competition. “Lease renegotiations, enjoying rapid growth this year, will undoubtedly occupy a significant share of the market next year. However, companies will no longer forego taking the opportunities on new buildings or those to be delivered, which could fuel take-up in 2013” emphasises Jacques Bagge, Head of Leasing at Jones Lang LaSalle. Established tertiary districts, which are currently offering attractive rental terms, could benefit from this momentum as the difference in rent between central sites and peripheral sites is tending to shrink. Availability is abundant, particularly in the Inner Suburbs and there is no shortage in the supply of new properties. In addition, approximately 430,000 sq m of new projects currently under construction in Greater Paris Region, to be delivered by the end of 2013, will increase the number of new buildings available in some “supplier” sectors. Within this context, rents will remain under a downward price pressure, particularly in sectors where the available supply exceeds demand. Headline rental values will continue to fall in 2013, whereas economic values are already low. Incentives could even increase at the discretion of the owners in some “over-supplier” sectors. In Inner Paris, and particularly in the CBD, pockets of scarcity observed for prime buildings should maintain rent at a high level. Consulting firms and law firms, in competition for the few new buildings in the sector, are willing to pay the high price.
  • 4. On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 4 A solid investment market in 2012, despite no "fiscal carrot" The investment market ended 2012 with a total volume of €10.9 billion invested, and therefore showed a slight slowdown of -8% in its activity compared to 2011. However, it achieved a better performance than expected at the start of the year. Last year, the investment market experienced a significant performance in Q4, with close to €6 billion investment, i.e. nearly half the volume of the year. In 2012, Q4 confirmed the trend of a more active market at the end of the year, but to a lesser extent with €3.8 billion invested (1/3 of the volumes). “The 2012 performance was built solidly throughout the year, with two leading quarters: Q2 and Q4,” commented Stephan von Barczy, Head of Capital Markets at Jones Lang LaSalle. Very strong activity on transactions exceeding €100 million in Q4 In 2012, 30 deals exceeding €100 million were finalised for over €6 billion, i.e. 56% of the market. If we analyse the risk level of these sales, we can see that investors are still cautious in this time of economic turmoil. They are mainly positioned on secure or ultra- secure products (51% and 24% respectively); in summary, on assets without any vacancy, and with fixed-term leases of at least 6 years at the time of purchase. In Q4 alone, 13 transactions exceeding €100 million were recorded. “The investment market has confirmed this year, despite funds remaining more restricted than in the past, that liquidity exists in all market segments,” says Stephan von Barczy. Among the recent major transactions in 2012, we could cite the acquisition by PREDICA of “23-25 rue de l'Université” in the 7th district of Paris for an estimated amount of €250 million, the acquisition by QATAR INVESTMENT AUTHORITY (QIA) of “116bis Avenue des Champs Elysées” for €160 million, and that of the “Start”, a forward funding property acquired by a French institutional investor, 100% leased to EGIS for a total of around €110 million (Jones Lang LaSalle transaction). The interest of “value added” investors for “secondary” assets is real. However, this requires the market to have “non-prime” assets to trade, that buyers and sellers agree on the valuation of the assets, and that they are fundable. The re-internationalisation of the market is underway At the end of 2012, the re-internationalisation of the market was confirmed, with a foreign capital share of 46% of the investment market in Greater Paris Region. In the segment of transactions exceeding €100 million, the ratio is even higher and represents 64% of capital invested. For two years sovereign funds have invested heavily in the Paris market creating a new geography of the source of funds: Norway, China, Qatar in the first half of the year; Arab Emirates, United States and Azerbaijan in the second half. Thus, in Q4, LASALLE INVESTMENT MANAGEMENT (LIM) acquired for ABU DHABI INVESTMENT AUTHORITY (ADIA) “90 boulevard Pasteur” for €252 million, and the Azerbaijan oil fund acquired “8 place Vendôme” for €135 million. Whereas the French market was historically very European and North American, capital flows in 2012 have moved east. French investors were also very active in 2012. Their influence in the market is still significant: 54% of volumes invested. Institutional investors and real estate investment trusts (benefiting from record inflows), focused on the segment of transactions below €100 million where they represent 72% of amounts invested. As for German investors – historically active purchasers – they were absent during HY1 (only 3% of invested capital) or were even net sellers. However, they reappeared in HY2, totalling 7% of capital invested in the Paris region market.
  • 5. On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 5 48% of capital invested in Inner Paris Inner Paris captured 48% of the investments made at the end of 2012 in the Paris region market. This high proportion is explained by the very large transactions completed since the start of the year with different sovereign funds in Paris assets. In Q4, five of the six largest sales were also finalised in Paris: "90 boulevard Pasteur" in the 15th district, “23-25 rue de l'Université” in the 7th, “Sequana” and “Austerlitz II” in the 13th and finally “116bis Avenue des Champs- Elysées” in the 8th. The La Défense market experienced a difficult year in 2012 with only 5 transactions, representing €234 million invested. The only sale in Q4 was that of STAM with the “Arago” tower for approximately €20 million. The unit volume of assets and the performance of the leasing market fell sharply, coupled with a shortage of bank financing, still explain the loss of interest of investors for this sector. Significant fall in forward funding sales this year, and in a more marked way for unsecured sales The forward funding market slowed sharply in 2012: more than €1 billion invested compared to nearly €1.9 billion last year (-41%). Unsecured transactions fell sharply in 2012, from a total investment of €1.3 billion in 2011 to less than €400 million. In Q4, five new forward funding transactions were recorded for more than €317 million. Only one of them relates to an unsecured asset, AMUNDI acquired a 16,000 sq m building “Helios” located in Massy. Stability of yields during Q4 Prime yields remained stable in Q4, and in the Golden Triangle, prime rates are positioned in a range between 4.50% and 5.00%. However, investors are still willing, in some cases, to position themselves at lower yields for products, the cash flow of which is secure over a long period, particularly medium-sized products (€50 million) which are “trophy” buildings (situated in Paris, in cut stone, with top of the range services). Outlook Subject to renewal of the supply, the Paris market is expected to reach comparable levels of activity in 2013. We therefore anticipate a volume invested between €10 and €11 billion next year. Moreover, the start of the year should be more active than in previous years with a greater number of products on the market. The arbitrage plans of investors have begun much earlier than usual, and should rollout at the start of the year. In an uncertain political and fiscal context, investors remain very cautious in their analysis, as long as rental values are under pressure. However, the attractiveness of the Paris market at the European level and the resilience of its real estate market are all factors that will continue to attract investors from around the world. We await the arrival of new investors from Asia, such as Korean and Malaysian investors, as well as Chinese insurance companies, which have recently been authorised to invest in overseas property. German investors should also be present. The enthusiasm of sovereign funds for the Paris market could slowdown. After having invested in London and Paris, some funds are looking to invest in other "core" European markets such as Germany or Switzerland. With regard to French investors, insurance companies should still be active on the Paris market to acquire quality assets with fixed long- term leases. In terms of product typology, purchasers will undoubtedly be primarily looking for quality assets, with secure yields. Prime yields are therefore likely to be maintained for the best assets.
  • 6. On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 6 Key market indicators – Q4 2012 (Source: Immostat/Jones Lang LaSalle) CBD 344 903 -13% 340 000 5,0% 770 520 Paris Centre West (excl. CBD) 87 244 -5% 110 000 6,1% 595 401 Total Paris Centre West 432 147 -12% 450 000 5,2% 770 502 Paris 5/6/7 42 239 -30% 32 000 2,4% 705 464 Paris 12/13 61 313 -57% 67 000 3,5% 470 399 Paris 14/15 198 449 62% 83 000 4,1% 495 392 Total Paris South 302 001 -7% 182 000 3,5% 705 418 Paris 3/4/10/11 64 846 -28% 51 000 3,2% 425 338 Paris 18/19/20 53 004 17% 54 000 4,4% 300 249 Total Paris North East 117 850 -13% 105 000 3,7% 425 294 Total Inner Paris 851 998 -10% 737 000 4,4% 770 395 La Défense 162 522 39% 209 000 6,5% 530 417 Northern Bend 63 060 -68% 267 000 14,3% 305 208 Péri Défense 188 538 8% 312 000 13,3% 375 250 Neuilly/ Levallois 77 676 -16% 172 000 12,0% 460 331 Southern Bend 183 446 38% 227 000 8,6% 480 339 Total Western Crescent 512 720 -14% 978 000 11,8% 480 282 Northern Inner Suburbs 203 272 4% 244 000 10,2% 340 224 Eastern Inner Suburbs 45 747 -7% 123 000 8,0% 315 224 Southern Inner Suburbs 189 955 157% 171 000 8,6% 350 238 Total Inner Rim 438 974 38% 538 000 9,1% 350 229 RoissyPole 34 627 -3% 80 000 6,7% 205 141 Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines 54 250 -32% 159 000 11,1% 210 131 Marne-la-Vallée 34 171 -20% 133 000 9,4% 210 151 Southern Outer Suburbs 194 256 -6% 359 000 10,2% 240 152 Rest of Outer Suburbs 97 120 -17% 392 000 3,5% 240 142 Total Outer Suburbs 414 424 -14% 1 123 000 6,0% 240 143 Paris Region 2 380 638 -3% 3 585 000 6,8% 770 319 Immediate vacancy rate as at 31/12/2012 Prime rent (€/sq m/yr) Average second hand rent (€/sq m/yr) Immostat Sector Take-up as at 31/12/2012 (sq m) Evolution y O y Immediate supply as at 31/12/2012 (sq m)
  • 7. On Point • Greater Paris Region Office Market Overview – Q4 2012 Page 7 Distribution of investment volumes by sector (Source: Immostat/Jones Lang LaSalle) Distribution of investment by asset classification (Source: Immostat/Jones Lang LaSalle) Prime yields (Source: Immostat/Jones Lang LaSalle) Immostat zone Investment volumes as at end of December 2008 (in € million) % Investment volumes as at end of December 2009 (in € million) % Investment volumes as at end of December 2010 (in € million) % Investment volumes as at end of December 2011 (in € million) % Investment volumes as at end of December 2012 (in € million) % CBD 1 551 18% 1 565 30% 1 648 19% 1 950 17% 2 796 26% Paris Center West (excl. CBD) 208 2% 89 2% 323 4% 725 6% 444 4% Southern Paris 574 7% 703 13% 303 3% 1 469 13% 1 831 17% North Eastern Paris 212 3% 86 2% 448 5% 432 4% 204 2% La Défense 854 10% 235 4% 557 7% 134 1% 234 2% Western Crescent 2 092 25% 737 14% 1 487 17% 2 664 22% 1 473 14% Inner suburb 1 201 14% 328 6% 1 487 17% 1 470 12% 1 068 10% Outer suburb 1 317 16% 625 12% 1 570 18% 1 455 12% 945 9% Greater Paris Region portfolio 444 5% 894 17% 832 10% 1 578 13% 1 911 18% Greater Paris Region 8 451 100% 5 262 100% 8 656 100% 11 878 100% 10 906 100% Immostat zone Investment volumes as at end of December 2008 (in € million) % Investment volumes as at end of December 2009 (in € million) % Investment volumes as at end of December 2010 (in € million) % Investment volumes as at end of December 2011 (in € million) % Investment volumes as at end of December 2012 (in € million) % Office 7 687 91% 4 553 87% 7 213 83% 10 684 90% 8 797 81% Light industrial / Mixed 177 2% 202 4% 117 1% 206 2% 164 1% Warehouse 131 2% 123 2% 325 4% 203 2% 294 3% Retail 457 5% 384 7% 1 001 12% 785 6% 1 650 15% Paris region 8 451 100% 5 262 100% 8 656 100% 11 878 100% 10 906 100% Office prime yield range in Q4 2009 (%) Office prime yield range in Q4 2010 (%) Office prime yield range in Q4 2011 (%) Office prime yield range in Q4 2012 (%) Yearly evolution Golden Triangle 5.75 - 6.25 4.75 -5.25 4.75 - 5.25 4.50 - 5.00 m Financial district 6.00 - 6.50 5.00 - 5.50 5.00 - 5.50 4.75 - 5.25 m Paris 5/6/7 6.00 - 6.50 5.25 - 5.75 5.25 - 5.75 5.00 - 5.50 m Paris 12/13 6.25 - 6.75 5.25 - 5.75 5.50 - 6.00 5.50 - 6.00 g Paris 14/15 6.25 - 6.75 5.25 - 5.75 5.50 - 6.00 5.50 - 6.00 g Paris 3/4/10/11 6.25 - 6.75 5.50 - 6.00 5.75 - 6.25 5.75 - 6.25 g Paris 18/19/20 7.00 - 7.50 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 g La Défense 6.25 - 6.75 5.50 - 6.00 5.75 - 6.25 6.00 - 6.50 k Northern loop 7.00 - 7.50 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 g Péri Défense 7.00 - 7.50 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 g Neuilly-Levallois 6.50 - 7.00 5.75 - 6.25 5.75 - 6.25 5.50 - 6.00 m Southern loop 6.50 - 7.00 5.75 - 6.25 5.75 - 6.25 5.50 - 6.00 m Northern Inner suburbs 7.00 - 7.50 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 g Eastern Inner suburbs 7.25 - 7.75 6.50 - 7.00 6.50 - 7.00 6.50 - 7.00 g Southern Inner suburbs 7.00 - 7.50 6.25 - 6.75 6.25 - 6.75 6.00 - 6.50 m
  • 8. Jones Lang LaSalle in France Paris 40-42 rue La Boétie 75008 Paris Tél. : + 33 (0)1 40 55 15 15 Fax : + 33 (0)1 46 22 28 28 La Défense Immeuble Le Berkeley 19-29, rue du Capitaine Guynemer 92903 Paris La Défense Cedex Tél. : + 33 (0)1 49 00 32 50 Fax : + 33 (0)1 49 00 32 59 Saint-Denis 3, rue Jesse Owens 93210 Saint-Denis Tél. : + 33 (0)1 40 55 15 15 Fax : + 33 (0)1 48 22 52 83 Le Plessis-Robinson “La Boursidière” BP 171 92357 Le Plessis-Robinson Tél. : + 33 (0)1 40 55 15 15 Fax : + 33 (0)1 46 01 06 37 Lyon 55, avenue Foch 69006 Lyon Tél. : + 33 (0)4 78 89 26 26 Fax : + 33 (0)4 78 89 04 76 Contacts www.joneslanglasalle.fr COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, inc. 2013 - All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them. Printing information: paper, inks, printing process, recycle directive. Printing information: paper, inks, printing process, recycle directive. Virginie Houzé Head of Research Paris +33 (0)1 40 55 15 94 virginie.houze@eu.jll.com Sophie Benaïnous Research Manager Paris +33 (0)1 40 55 85 15 sophie.benainous@eu.jll.com Manuela Moura Research Consultant Paris +33 (0)1 40 55 85 73 manuela.moura@eu.jll.com