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Presentation at Light Reading's Software Driven Operations event, 2019
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Software driven operations
1.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading Software-Driven Operations Introduction & Heavy Reading Presentation James Crawshaw 5 November 2019
2.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading Telephone (Industry) Between (Two) Worlds 2 • The global telecom industry generated $1.9 trillion of revenue last year, down 1.3% YoY • Telecom capex fell 2% to $339 bn (17% of revenue) • In contrast the Internet Content Providers (GAMAFAT) grew revenue 19% to $113bn and increased capex by 39% (8% of revenue) • CSPs are the bridge that connects consumers and enterprises to the cloud • But competition/regulation keep return on investment close to (historically low) cost of capital
3.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading ▪ Like most mature industries, telecoms is paralyzed by loss aversion ▪ Commonly known as “Move Slowly and Don’t Break Anything!” ▪ Why is this difficult to change? ▪ Problem: A new OSS will cost $10m up front. ▪ There is a 50% chance that the new OSS will lead to an annual cost saving of $2m. Discounting this over expected life of 15 years gives a present value of $20m. After deducting the upfront investment the net present value is $10m. ▪ But there is a 50% chance that it will only save $0.5m per year i.e. a present value of $5m or -$5m net of investment cost. ▪ Do you support the investment? ▪ Probability weighted outcome is +$2.5m but humans tend to weight negative outcomes more heavily than positive ones The Communications Industry Needs a Culture Change 3
4.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading Q1. You are hired to run a small unit of a large telecom operator. Do you: ▪ A: Continue running things as before and generate a guaranteed annual profit of $1m ▪ B: Change systems and processes such that there is a 60% chance of a $2m annual profit but a 40% chance the unit generates a $0.5m loss Q2. You are transferred to run a struggling unit of a large telecom operator. Do you: ▪ A: Continue running things as before and generate a guaranteed annual loss of $1m ▪ B: Change systems and processes such that there is a 60% chance the unit loses $2m p.a. but a 40% chance it makes a profit of $0.5m p.a. Move Slowly and Avoid Breaking Things 4
5.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading ▪ “Each manager is loss averse regarding any outcomes that will be attributed to him. In an organizational setting, the natural feeling of loss aversion can be exacerbated by the system of rewards and punishment. In many companies, creating a large gain will lead to modest rewards, while creating an equal-sized loss will get you fired.” Richard Thaler, Misbehaving. Loss Aversion 5
6.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Standarddeviation(variability)ofreturns Number of projects in the portfolio Market risk Portfolio risk Portfolio Effect 6
7.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading 7 PANEL: BUILDING THE TELCO CLOUD
8.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading Building the Telco Cloud - Blockbusters 8 O C K M T B P O A E C X R P S O B S N L
9.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading Introduction - When public cloud migrations go wrong Cloud adoption projects Source: Survey by iLand of 400 IT professionals • Some say they have less control over their application estate when it moves to public cloud • Some say the complexities of migration were more trouble than they are worth • Many admit to lack of planning • Failed to understand application dependencies • Failed to test before deploying • Security issues • Virtualization issues
10.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading Introduction – When public cloud migrations go well • Verizon Visible: “Scaling with our customers makes much more sense than just rolling in millions and millions of dollars spent on hardware.“ - Adil Belihomji, Head of Technology. • 3 UK: IT costs drop 30% by moving OSS/BSS to public cloud
11.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading Audience Poll Question 1 What proportion of your (or your main customer’s) BSS estate is in public cloud today? • 0-5% • 6-10% • 11-15% • Over 15%
12.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading Audience Poll Question 2 What is the main obstacle to public cloud adoption for BSS? • Security issues • Cost issues • Skills issues • Risk issues • Other
13.
© 2019 Heavy
Reading Audience Poll Question 3 Which BSS application is the top priority for cloud migration? • Customer management (CRM) • Revenue management (billing) • Order management • Product management (catalog) • Other
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