This document provides an economic analysis and outlook for the Washington D.C. metropolitan area. It summarizes recent economic performance and trends in key sectors such as federal government employment, professional services, education and health services, and discusses the impacts of federal spending cuts. The analysis finds that while federal employment and spending declines have impacted the region, private sector job growth has offset much of the losses. The outlook predicts continued moderate economic growth for the region from 2013 to 2018, outpacing national growth rates.

2. REAL DEAL 2014
The Post-Federally Dependent
Washington Area Economy
Stephen S. Fuller, Ph.D.
Dwight Schar Faculty Chair and University Professor
Director, Center for Regional Analysis
George Mason University
January 28, 2014

3. The U.S. Economy’s Current
Performance and Outlook

4. U.S. Gross Domestic Product
Quarterly Change: 2007 – 2015
%
6
Forecast > > > >
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight January 6, 2014
2013
2014
2015

5. U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector
Dec 2012 – Dec 2013
Ranked by Size in 2013
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
Manufacturing
Financial
Construction
Wlse Trade
Other Services
Transp. & Util.
Federal Govt.
Information
-600
Total = 2,186
(000s)
327
54
637
381
390
77
84
153
95
30
42
-79
-4
-400
-200
0
200
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
400
600

6. U.S. Payroll Job Change by Sector
Nov 2013 – Dec 2013
Ranked by Size in 2013
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
Manufacturing
Financial
Construction
Wlse Trade
Other Services
Transp. & Util.
Federal Govt.
Information
-100
Total = 74
(000s)
0
-11
19
55
9
9
4
-12
15
1
-2
-2
-12
-50
0
50
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
100

7. U.S. Unemployment Rate
%
11
10
9
8
7
6
5
4
Dec = 6.7
GI FCST
13 – 7.4
14 – 6.5
15 – 5.9
16 – 5.4
17 – 5.1
18 – 5.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Seasonally Adjusted), IHS Global Insight January 6, 2014

8. Interest Rates
2001 - 2018
Forecast > > > >
8
7
6
30-Yr
5
10-Yr Treas
Fed
4
3
2
1
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
Source: IHS Global Insight January 6, 2014
2011
2013
2015
2017

9. U.S. Economic Performance
%
20
Forecast > > > >
15
10
5
GDP
Residential Fixed
Non-Res: Structures
State & Local
Federal
Bus. Inv.-Eq & Sfwr
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
-25
-30
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Global Insight January 6, 2014

10. The Washington Economy:
Impacts of the Recession
and Sequester

11. The Washington Area Economy
Experienced Structural Change
During the Recession
Changing Federal Spending
Policies Have Resulted in Additional
Major Changes in the Washington
Area Economy

12. Recession Impacts
• GRP declined 0.8% in 2008
• The region’s lost 178,100 jobs
Sequester+ Impacts
• Federal procurement $s down by 11.8%
• There are 21,200 fewer federal jobs
• Federal payroll is down 4.8%
or by $2 billion

13. Federal Government
Washington MSA
(000s) Annual Data
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
-5
-10
-15
-20
2008
Annual Month over Year
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
Oct
Jul
Apr
Jan
2005
2002
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
Tot 2012 = 377,400

14. WMSA Payroll Job Change: Private Sector
The Great Recession and Recovery
Aug 2008-Feb 2010
(000s)
Total -178
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Feb 2010-Nov 2013
Total 212
43
-23
Educ & Health Svcs
40
Retail Trade
-23
Leisure & Hosp.
34
-34
Construction
56
-48
14
Other Services
-8
Financial
8
-10
Information
11
-12
Manufacturing
0
-10
Wlse Trade
0
-7
Transp. & Util.
0
-4
-60
-40
-20
Feb 10 to Nov 12
Nov 12 to Nov 13
6
0
0
20
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
40
60

15. WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008
Professional & Business Services
As measured in November of each year
(000s)
25
Prof & Bus
Svcs
20
15
Prof, Sci &
Tech Svcs
10
5
Management
0
-5
Admin & Waste
Mgt
Nov-13
Nov-12
Nov-11
Nov-10
Nov-09
-15
Aug-08
Nov-08
-10
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

16. WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008
Education & Health Services
As measured in November of each year
(000s)
70
60
Health &
Educ Svcs
50
Educ. Svcs
40
Health Svcs
30
20
Ambulatory
Health Svcs
10
Hospitals
Nov-13
Nov-12
Nov-11
Nov-10
Nov-09
-10
Aug-08
Nov-08
0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

17. WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008
Leisure & Hospitality
As measured in November of each year
(000s)
40
Leisure &
Hospitality
30
20
Food &
Drinking
Places
10
0
Accommodation
-10
Arts & Rec
Nov-13
Nov-12
Nov-11
Nov-10
Nov-09
-30
Aug-08
Nov-08
-20
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

18. WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008
Financial Activities
As measured in November of each year
(000s)
8
Financial
Activities
6
4
2
Finance &
Insurance
0
-2
Real Estate &
Leasing
-4
-6
Credit &
Related
Nov-13
Nov-12
Nov-11
Nov-10
Nov-09
-10
Aug-08
Nov-08
-8
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

19. WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008
Construction, Mfg, Info & Other Services
As measured in November of each year
(000s)
0
Other Services
-5
-10
Manufacturing
-15
-20
Information
Svcs
-25
-30
Construction
Nov-13
Nov-12
Nov-11
Nov-10
Nov-09
-40
Aug-08
Nov-08
-35
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

20. WMSA Payroll Job Change from Aug-2008
Trade, Transportation & Utilities
As measured in November of each year
(000s)
15
Retail
10
5
Department
Stores
0
Transportation
& Utilities
-5
Nov-13
Nov-12
Nov-11
Nov-10
Nov-09
Aug-08
Nov-08
-10
Wholesale
Trade
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

21. Washington Metropolitan Area Job Change
by Wage Category between 2008 to 2013
Higher-Wage
Mid-Wage
Lower Wage
(000s)
(60)
(40)
(20)
0
2008-2009
Sources: EMSI 2013.3 & GMU Center for Regional Analysis
20
40
2010-2013
60
80

22. The Current Baseline for the
Region’s Future Growth:
What Are the Current Trends?

23. (000s)
15 Largest Job Markets
Job Change: Nov 2012 – Nov 2013
250
200
Washington +24,100
150
100
50
0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis

24. Job Change by Sector
Nov 2012 – Nov 2013
Washington MSA
(000s)
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Federal Govt.
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
Construction
Other Services
Financial
Information
Manufacturing
Wlse Trade
Transp. & Util.
(20.0)
Total = 24,100
0
-10
2
6
4
16
-1
0
7
-2
0
-2
3
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
30.0

25. Job Change by Sector
Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
Washington MSA
(000s)
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Federal Govt.
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
Construction
Other Services
Financial
Information
Manufacturing
Wlse Trade
Transp. & Util.
(20.0)
Total = 11,600
1
-2
1
3
8
-1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
3
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
30.0

26. Annual Job Change
District of Columbia, 2002-2013
(000s) Annual Data
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
2009
Annual Month over Year
2010
2011
2012
2008
2005
2002
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2013

27. Job Change by Sector
Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
District of Columbia
(000s)
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Federal Govt.
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
Construction
Other Services
Financial
Information
Manufacturing
Wlse Trade
Transp. & Util.
(20.0)
Total -1,200
1
-2
0
0
1
-1
0
-1
0
0
0
0
0
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
30.0

28. Annual Job Change
Suburban Maryland, 2002-2013
(000s) Annual Data
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
2009
Annual Month over Year
2010
2011
2012
2008
2005
2002
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2013

29. Job Change by Sector
Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
Suburban Maryland
(000s)
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Federal Govt.
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
Construction
Other Services
Financial
Information
Manufacturing
Wlse Trade
Transp. & Util.
(20.0)
Total 4,800
0
0
1
1
3
-2
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
30.0

30. Annual Job Change
Northern Virginia, 2002-2013
(000s) Annual Data
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
-10
-20
-30
-40
2009
Annual Month over Year
2010
2011
2012
2008
2005
2002
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
2013

31. Job Change by Sector
Oct 2013 – Nov 2013
Northern Virginia
(000s)
Prof. & Bus. Svcs
Federal Govt.
Educ & Health Svcs
State & Local Govt
Retail Trade
Leisure & Hosp.
Construction
Other Services
Financial
Information
Manufacturing
Wlse Trade
Transp. & Util.
(20.0)
Total 8,200
-1
0
1
2
5
1
-1
0
0
0
0
0
1
(10.0)
-
10.0
20.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Not Seasonally Adjusted), GMU Center for Regional Analysis
30.0

32. Unemployment Rates in the WMSA
By Sub-State Area, 2006-2013
12
10
8
7.3 – DC
7.0 – U.S.
6
5.3 – SMD
4.9 – MSA
4
4.0 - NVA
2
0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics (Region - Not Seasonally Adjusted, US – Seasonally Adjusted)

33. Economic Outlook for the
Washington Metropolitan Area:
2013-2018

34. Washington Metropolitan Area and
U.S. Economic Growth
2012-2018
(annual percent real change)
Year
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
WMSA
1.28
1.26
2.65
3.56
3.40
3.42
3.28
U.S.
2.8
1.8
2.5
3.2
3.3
3.3
2.9
Sources: IHS Global Insight; GMU Center for Regional Analysis

35. U.S. GDP and Washington Area GRP
2001 – 2013 – 2018
%
6
Washington
4
U.S.
2
0
-2
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
-4
Source: IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis

36. Employment Change in the WMSA
by Sub-State Area (000s)
2011 2012
2013
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
14.1
5.6
4.4
4.8
20.7 18.1 22.7 20.0 14.3 12.2
No. VA
26.4 23.5
14.6 32.2 31.8 36.8 35.0 30.3
REGION
42.6 32.2
37.5 60.2 66.1 66.4 56.2 47.4
D.C.
Sub. MD
1.9
9.7 11.3
9.3
Average Annual Change 1990-2010 = 36,000
Source: BLS, IHS Global Insight, GMU Center for Regional Analysis
NOTE: The regional totals include Jefferson, WV.
6.5
4.6

37. Thank You
Questions
cra.gmu.edu

38. Back to the Future Part II
On Behalf of
The Real Deal Seminar
By: Anirban Basu
Sage Policy Group, Inc.
January 28th, 2014

39. Raging Bull
(1980)

40. Top 12 Stock Exchanges
2013 Growth*
Rank
4
2
1
6
8
12
5
10
3
9
11
7
Exchange
Tokyo SE
Nasdaq
NYSE Group
Frankfurt SE
Bolsa De Madrid
Swiss Exchange
Euronext
BorsaItaliana
London SE
TSX Group
Hong Kong Exchanges
Shanghai SE
Source: Yahoo! Finance
*Change from the 2012 close to the 2013 close.
Index
Nikkei 225
NASDAQ Composite
DJI A
DAX
Madrid General
Swiss Market
CAC 40
FTSE MIB
FTSE 100
S&P TSX Composite
Hang Seng Index
Shanghai Composite
% Change
56.7%
38.3%
26.5%
25.5%
21.4%
20.2%
18.0%
16.6%
12.0%
9.6%
2.9%
-6.8%

41. S&P Select Sector Performance
12-Month Percent Change as of December 31st, 2013
41.0%
Consumer Discretionary
38.7%
Health Care
33.2%
Financials
37.6%
Industrials
22.7%
Materials
Consumer Staples
22.7%
Energy
22.3%
26.2%
Information Technology
8.8%
Utilities
6.5%
Telecommunication Services
0%
10%
20%
30%
12-month percent change
Source: Standard & Poor’s
40%
50%

42. Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index
May 2008 – December 2013
FRB Credit Reserve
$Trillions
4.3
S&P 500
3.8
3.3
1900
1700
S&P 500 index depicted in orange
1500
1300
2.3
1100
1.8
900
1.3
700
0.8
500
May-08
Jul-08
Sep-08
Nov-08
Jan-09
Mar-09
May-09
Jul-09
Sep-09
Nov-09
Jan-10
Mar-10
May-10
Jul-10
Sep-10
Nov-10
Jan-11
Mar-11
May-11
Jul-11
Sep-11
Nov-11
Jan-12
Mar-12
May-12
Jul-12
Sep-12
Nov-12
Jan-13
Mar-13
May-13
Jul-13
Sep-13
Nov-13
2.8
Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance

43. Third Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations
Earnings per Share
Symbol Q3 2012
FCX
VFC
BTU
MSFT
COF
DD
VZ
MMM
TXN
AMD
YHOO
$0.68
$3.52
$0.51
$0.60
$2.01
$0.32
$0.64
$1.65
$0.52
-$0.20
$0.35
Source: Yahoo! Finance
Q3 2013
Q3 2013
Surprise
Estimated Reported
$0.62
$3.78
-$0.04
$0.54
$1.80
$0.41
$0.74
$1.75
$0.53
$0.02
$0.33
$0.79
$3.91
$0.05
$0.62
$1.86
$0.45
$0.77
$1.78
$0.56
$0.04
$0.34
$0.17
$0.13
$0.09
$0.08
$0.06
$0.04
$0.03
$0.03
$0.03
$0.02
$0.01
Symbol Q3 2012
UTX
XRX
GE
COH
UPS
MCD
HON
DOW
CMG
CAT
STI
$1.37
$0.25
$0.36
$0.77
$1.06
$1.43
$1.20
$0.42
$2.27
$2.54
$1.98
Q3 2013
Q3 2013
Surprise
Estimated Reported
$1.54
$0.25
$0.35
$0.76
$1.15
$1.51
$1.24
$0.54
$2.78
$1.67
$0.69
$1.55
$0.26
$0.36
$0.77
$1.16
$1.52
$1.24
$0.50
$2.66
$1.45
$0.33
$0.01
$0.01
$0.01
$0.01
$0.01
$0.01
$0.00
-$0.04
-$0.12
-$0.22
-$0.36

44. Industrial Production
January 2001 through December 2013
105
Index (2007 = 100)
100
(Base year: 2007)
95
90
85
Jan-01
Jun-01
Nov-01
Apr-02
Sep-02
Feb-03
Jul-03
Dec-03
May-04
Oct-04
Mar-05
Aug-05
Jan-06
Jun-06
Nov-06
Apr-07
Sep-07
Feb-08
Jul-08
Dec-08
May-09
Oct-09
Mar-10
Aug-10
Jan-11
Jun-11
Nov-11
Apr-12
Sep-12
Feb-13
Jul-13
Dec-13
80
Source: Federal Reserve
The industrial production index measures the real output of the
manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

45. 1990Q1
1990Q4
1991Q3
1992Q2
1993Q1
1993Q4
1994Q3
1995Q2
1996Q1
1996Q4
1997Q3
1998Q2
1999Q1
1999Q4
2000Q3
2001Q2
2002Q1
2002Q4
2003Q3
2004Q2
2005Q1
2005Q4
2006Q3
2007Q2
2008Q1
2008Q4
2009Q3
2010Q2
2011Q1
2011Q4
2012Q3
2013Q2
Percent Change from Preceding Period (SAAR)
Gross Domestic Product
1990Q1 through 2013Q3
8%
6%
2013Q3: 4.1%
4%
2%
0%
-2%
-4%
-6%
-8%
-10%
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

46. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component
Q3 2012 – Q3 2013
Q3-12
3.0
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
2.56
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.2 1.1
1.0
0.7
0.7
0.7
1.0
SAAR (%)
1.4
1.2 1.36
0.5
0.14
0.08
0.0
-0.1
-0.5
-1.0
0.0
-0.1
-0.3
-0.4
-0.8
-1.3
-1.5
-2.0
Personal
Consumption
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Government
Spending
Net Exports
Gross Investment

47. Contributions to GDP Growth by Component
Q3 2012 – Q3 2013
Q3-12
Q4-12
Q1-13
Q2-13
Q3-13
3.5
2.56
2.5
SAAR (%)
1.5
1.0
0.7
0.5
-0.5
-0.4
1.67
1.6
1.4
1.0
0.4
0.89
0.9
0.6
0.4
-0.2
-1.5
-2.0
-2.5
Gross Investment
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
Fixed Investment
Private Inventory

48. Ordinary People
(1980)

49. Jan-02
Apr-02
Jul-02
Oct-02
Jan-03
Apr-03
Jul-03
Oct-03
Jan-04
Apr-04
Jul-04
Oct-04
Jan-05
Apr-05
Jul-05
Oct-05
Jan-06
Apr-06
Jul-06
Oct-06
Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Thousands
Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS
January 2002 through December 2013
600
400
200
0
-200
-400
December 2013:
+74K
-600
-800
-1000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

50. National Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector
December 2012 v. December 2013
Professional and Business Services
637
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
517
Leisure and Hospitality
390
Education and Health Services
327
Construction
122
Financial Activities
84
Manufacturing
77
Mining and Logging
31
Other Services
30
Information
Government
All told 2,186 K Jobs gained
-4
-25
-100
0
100
200
300
Thousands, SA
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
400
500
600
700

51. Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007:
Full-time v. Part-time
December 2007 – December 2013
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
-2,000
-4,000
Full-time
Part-time
-6,000
-8,000
-10,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
Full-time: -4.33 million
Part-time: +2.63 million
Dec-13
Sep-13
Jun-13
Mar-13
Dec-12
Sep-12
Jun-12
Mar-12
Dec-11
Sep-11
Jun-11
Mar-11
Dec-10
Sep-10
Jun-10
Mar-10
Dec-09
Sep-09
Jun-09
Mar-09
Dec-08
Sep-08
Jun-08
Mar-08
Dec-07
-12,000

52. Maryland Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (SA)
November 2013 v. November 2012
Absolute Change
Professional and Business Services
14,800
Education and Health Services
9,600
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
6,300
Mining, Logging, and Construction
5,600
Other Services
1,400
Government
200
Financial Activities
100
Leisure and Hospitality
US Total (SA):
+2,293K; +1.7%
-1,000
Manufacturing
MD Total:
+33.5K; +1.3%
-1,400
Information
-10,000
-2,100
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
*According to the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
series MD lost 13,618 jobs between November 2012 and November 2013.
15,000
20,000

53. Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
November 2013 v. November 2012
Absolute Change
Education and Health Services
10,000
Professional and Business Services
7,800
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
6,400
Mining, Logging, and Construction
3,300
Financial Activities
2,200
Other Services
1,300
Leisure and Hospitality
900
Information
Government
Manufacturing
-8,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
-600
Baltimore MSA Total:
+25.2K; +1.9%
MD Total (SA):
+33.5K; +1.3%
US Total (SA):
+2,293K; +1.7%
-2,700
-3,400
-3,000
2,000
7,000
12,000

54. Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector Groups (NSA)
November 2013 v. November 2012
Absolute Change
Leisure and Hospitality
16,200
Financial Activities
7,000
Trade, Transportation, and Utilities
5,100
Education and Health Services
1,900
Other Services
0
Professional and Business Services
-200
Manufacturing
-200
Mining, Logging, and Construction
Information
Government
-10,000
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
DC MSA Total:
+24.1K; +0.8%
-500
US Total (SA):
+2,293K; +1.7%
-1,700
-3,500
-5,000
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000

55. Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA)
November 2012 v. November 2013 Percent Change
RANK
1
2
2
4
4
6
6
8
9
9
11
12
12
12
12
16
16
STATE
NORTH DAKOTA
FLORIDA
TEXAS
GEORGIA
IDAHO
OREGON
UTAH
INDIANA
COLORADO
DELAWARE
ARIZONA
MISSOURI
NEVADA
NEW JERSEY
SOUTH CAROLINA
MASSACHUSETTS
MISSISSIPPI
%
4.0
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.1
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
RANK
18
18
20
20
20
20
20
25
25
25
28
29
29
31
31
31
31
STATE
CALIFORNIA
SOUTH DAKOTA
KANSAS
MICHIGAN
MINNESOTA
NEW YORK
WISCONSIN
NORTH CAROLINA
TENNESSEE
WASHINGTON
MARYLAND
RHODE ISLAND
WEST VIRGINIA
ARKANSAS
LOUISIANA
NEBRASKA
VERMONT
%
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.2
1.1
1.1
1.1
1.1
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 1.7%
RANK
35
35
35
35
39
40
40
40
43
44
44
46
47
48
48
50
51
STATE
CONNECTICUT
ILLINOIS
MONTANA
OKLAHOMA
IOWA
HAWAII
MAINE
WYOMING
VIRGINIA
NEW HAMPSHIRE
PENNSYLVANIA
OHIO
KENTUCKY
ALABAMA
NEW MEXICO
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
ALASKA
%
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.0
-1.0

56. Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA)
November 2013
RANK
STATE
%
RANK
STATE
%
RANK
STATE
%
1
NORTH DAKOTA
2.6
15
WEST VIRGINIA
6.1
35
NEW YORK
7.4
2
SOUTH DAKOTA
3.6
19
ALABAMA
6.2
35
NORTH CAROLINA
7.4
3
NEBRASKA
3.7
20
LOUISIANA
6.3
35
OHIO
7.4
4
5
UTAH
HAWAII
4.3
4.4
20
22
WISCONSIN
FLORIDA
6.3
6.4
38
39
ARKANSAS
CONNECTICUT
7.5
7.6
5
IOWA
4.4
22
MAINE
6.4
40
GEORGIA
7.7
5
VERMONT
4.4
22
MARYLAND
6.4
41
ARIZONA
7.8
5
WYOMING
4.4
22
NEW MEXICO
6.4
41
NEW JERSEY
7.8
9
MINNESOTA
4.6
26
ALASKA
6.5
43
TENNESSEE
8.1
10
KANSAS
5.1
26
COLORADO
6.5
44
KENTUCKY
8.2
10
NEW HAMPSHIRE
5.1
26
DELAWARE
6.5
45
MISSISSIPPI
8.3
12
MONTANA
5.2
29
WASHINGTON
6.8
46
CALIFORNIA
8.5
13
OKLAHOMA
5.4
30
MASSACHUSETTS
7.1
47
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
8.6
13
VIRGINIA
5.4
30
SOUTH CAROLINA
7.1
48
ILLINOIS
8.7
15
IDAHO
6.1
32
INDIANA
7.3
49
MICHIGAN
8.8
15
MISSOURI
6.1
32
OREGON
7.3
50
NEVADA
9.0
15
TEXAS
6.1
32
PENNSYLVANIA
7.3
50
RHODE ISLAND
9.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.0%

57. Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA)
November 2013
Rank
MSA
UR
Rank
MSA
UR
1
Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
Metropolitan Statistical Area
4.0
10
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL
Metropolitan Statistical Area
6.3
2
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MDWV Metropolitan Statistical Area
4.9
12
St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical
Area
6.5
3
Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan
Statistical Area
5.6
13
3
Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan
Statistical Area
5.6
14
San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
New York-Northern New Jersey-Long
Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical
Area
5
Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan
Statistical Area
5.7
15
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJDE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area
7
Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical
Area
6.0
18
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan
Statistical Area
8.3
9
Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan
Statistical Area
6.2
19
Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
8.5
Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical
Area
6.3
20
Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
9.4
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics
15
6.0
17
7.0
7
10
5.8
6.9
Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan
NECTA
San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan
Statistical Area
6
Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA
Metropolitan Statistical Area
Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI
Metropolitan Statistical Area
6.8
7.0
8.1

58. MD County Unemployment Rates
November 2013
Rank
Jurisdiction
UR
Rank
Jurisdiction
UR
1
Howard County
4.5
13
Garrett County
6.3
1
Montgomery County
4.5
13
Talbot County
6.3
3
Calvert County
5.1
15
Baltimore County
6.4
3
Frederick County
5.1
16
Cecil County
6.6
5
Carroll County
5.2
17
Allegany County
7.0
5
St. Mary's County
5.2
18
Caroline County
7.2
7
Charles County
5.3
19
Washington County
7.3
8
Queen Anne's County
5.4
20
Wicomico County
8.2
8
Anne Arundel County
5.4
21
Dorchester County
9.1
10
Harford County
5.8
21
Baltimore City
9.1
11
Kent County
6.2
23
Somerset County
9.4
11
Prince George's County
6.2
24
Worcester County
14.0
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

59. Field of Dreams (1989)

60. 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates
February 1995 through January 2014
10%
9%
15-yr
8%
30-yr
Rate
7%
6%
4.41%
5%
4%
3%
Source: Freddie Mac
Nov…
Ma…
Aug…
Nov…
Feb…
Ma…
Aug…
Nov…
Feb…
Ma…
Aug…
Nov…
Feb…
Ma…
Aug…
Nov…
Feb…
Ma…
Aug…
Nov…
Feb…
Ma…
Aug…
Nov…
Feb…
1%
Feb…
3.45%
2%

61. U.S. New Home Sales
January 1999 through November 2013
1,600
Thousands, SAAR
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
0
Source: Economy.com, Census Bureau
November 2013
464K

62. 0
Jan…
Jun…
No…
Ap…
Sep…
Feb…
Jul-…
De…
Ma…
Oc…
Ma…
Au…
Jan…
Jun…
No…
Ap…
Sep…
Feb…
Jul-…
De…
Ma…
Oc…
Ma…
Au…
Jan…
Jun…
No…
Ap…
Sep…
Feb…
Jul-11
De…
Ma…
Oc…
Ma…
Au…
Thousands, SAAR
U.S. Housing Starts
January 1999 through November 2013
2,500
1 Unit
Source: Census Bureau
5 units or more
2,000
1,500
1,000
500

63. S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros
October 2013, 12-Month Percentage Change
30%
27.1%
24.6%
12-Month % Change
25%
22.1%
20%
15.8%
13.6%
15%
10%
7.4%
4.9%
5%
0%
Source: Standard & Poor’s
8.6%
9.5%
9.7%
10.9%
17.3%
19.0%

64. Housing Inventory by Baltimore MSA Jurisdiction+
December 2012 v. December 2013
13.8
14
Dec-12
Dec-13
12
Months of Inventory
13.4
11.0
10
9.1
8
6.2
5.6
6
6.0
5.5
4.7
4
6.6
5.9
5.2
4.3
3.9
3.5
3.1
2
0
Anne Arundel Baltimore City
Baltimore
County
Harford
Howard
Carroll
Source: Maryland Association of Realtors
Maryland = Dec. 2012: 5.0 months; Dec. 2013: 4.9 months
Queen Anne's
Talbot

65. Area Office Market Statistics
2013 Q4
Area
Available
SF
Direct
Vacancy
Rate %
Q4 2013 Net
Absorption
SF
YTD 2013 Net
Absorption
SF
Avg Asking
Rent
$/SF/YR
City Center
3,170,011
16.65%
60,360
335,742
$20.85
Other Baltimore City
1,193,580
13.82%
9,321
45,314
$20.73
Total City
4,363,591
15.67%
69,681
381,056
$20.82
Southern Metro
4,686,453
13.86%
-26,904
289,394
$24.62
Northern Metro
5,377,684
16.18%
54,235
-69,160
$21.67
Total Metro
10,064,137
15.00%
27,331
220,234
$23.04
TOTAL MARKET
14,427,728
15.20%
97,012
601,290
$22.37
Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services

66. Area Flex Industrial Market Statistics
2013 Q4
Area
Available
SF
Annapolis
731,655
Arbutus
386,793
Balt County East
411,323
Baltimore City
995,539
BW Corridor
2,291,123
Carroll
234,120
Harford/ Cecil
475,751
I-83 Corridor
389,178
Reisterstown Road
605,036
Woodlawn/ Catonsville
383,821
TOTAL MARKET
6,904,339
Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services
Direct
Vacancy
Rate %
Q4 2013 Net
Absorption
SF
YTD 2013 Net
Absorption
SF
Avg Asking
Rent
$/SF/YR
7%
15%
10%
14%
8%
16%
17%
5%
17%
9%
10%
-50,632
33,065
10,554
28,183
100,236
7,500
12,440
-43,129
-12,478
-9,731
76,008
-48,480
14,848
111,226
74,831
306,991
24,322
35,666
28,891
-12,977
-46,703
488,615
$16.13
$7.95
$11.46
$7.87
$11.90
$8.76
$10.21
$10.74
$10.42
$9.87
$10.99

67. Area Warehouse Industrial Market Statistics
2013 Q4
Area
Available
SF
Annapolis
790,010
Arbutus
1,090,330
Balt County East
4,704,779
Baltimore City
6,867,140
BW Corridor
7,819,752
Carroll
1,048,368
Harford/ Cecil
2,719,817
I-83 Corridor
396,669
Reisterstown Road
215,341
Woodlawn/ Catonsville 305,327
TOTAL MARKET
25,957,533
Source: MacKenzie Commercial Real Estate Services
Direct
Vacancy
Rate %
Q4 2013 Net
Absorption
SF
YTD 2013 Net
Absorption
SF
Avg Asking
Rent
$/SF/YR
6.50%
10.95%
11.95%
7.57%
11.34%
9.70%
4.08%
6.24%
3.07%
10.30%
8.52%
18,312
36,489
191,292
242,409
267,567
59,518
259,071
41,205
-4,300
-116,190
995,373
232,328
52,268
-91,882
-8,134
399,917
287,856
1,700,435
-151,207
-70,999
-104,892
2,245,690
$6.44
$4.63
$4.11
$4.34
$5.28
$4.23
$4.43
$7.77
$7.50
$4.04
$4.74

68. The Shining (1980)

69. Source: Conference Board
Nov-13
Aug-13
May-13
Feb-13
Nov-12
Aug-12
May-12
Feb-12
-1.0%
Nov-11
Aug-11
May-11
Feb-11
Nov-10
Aug-10
May-10
Feb-10
Nov-09
Aug-09
May-09
Feb-09
Nov-08
Aug-08
May-08
Feb-08
Nov-07
Aug-07
One-month Percent Change
Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index
August 2007 through November 2013
1.5%
1.0%
0.5%
0.0%
-0.5%
November 2013 = 98.3
where 2004=100
-1.5%

70. Coming to America (1988)
• Economy gained momentum
over the course of last year;
• Tailwinds included booming
stock market, lower gasoline
prices, stabilizing global
economy, and consumer
expenditures on interest rate
sensitive durable goods like
housing and autos;
• The current year is associated
with greater certainty regarding
federal budgeting and monetary
policy – that helps;
• The world is not perfect - black
swan threats remain: (1) Iran
(2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4)
contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;
• Healthcare reform could slow
full-time hiring over the course
of the year; and
• Further evidence of Maryland’s
economic and demographic
under-performance.

71. Thank You
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