1. Marketing in times of Recession John Fowler Senior Vice President Director of Knowledge & Strategic Intelligence McCann Worldgroup EMEA Riga 19 September 2008

2. Marketing in times of Recession ‘ Who can benefit most?’

3. Marketing in times of Recession ‘ Who can lose least?’

4. Because as previous recessions have shown -there will be few winners – and many losers

5. Creating Ideas that Create Demand

7. We Create Demand

8. We Create Demand - in a world where nothing stands still

9. We Create Demand - in a world where nothing can be taken for granted any longer

10. We Create Demand – where costs rise and prices change – every single day

11. We practise the Art and Science of Demand Creation … … in times which are changing fast when we all face unprecedented economic turmoil when all consumers face many new decisions

12. So Demand Creation - and in today’s world perhaps Demand Consolidation is a more realistic phrase - is what I shall use as the basis of this morning’s presentation and any subsequent questions and conversations.

13. Let’s take a very quick look at the context

16. How did it happen?

21. Could a street near you look like this - soon here in Riga?

22. Any good news…….

24. However - this has happened since I’ve been in the Baltics

25. And is there more to come?

26. And it is not just the Anglo-Saxon world which suffers

27. And now in Russia – new ‘capitalism’ is failing.

28. What does history tell us about things that happen during recessions?

29. Hope for the Best. But plan for the Worst. This is the policy that I personally have followed during difficult economic times in 1974 and 1990

30. Is this is a recession? Well – it is starting to feel like it now! And if it’s not a recession, it is a period of real uncertainty … which is just as bad – provoking a real concern for the future

34. Does this sound familiar to you?

45. Here are some facts – not just hypotheses

47. And now the rival retailers are moving quickly

49. If you are a retailer – that’s a very clear possible course of direct action to take. If you are a supplier – can you be part of that kind of action? – by offering some of your products as part of a new range?

50. If you are a retailer – that’s a very clear possible course of direct action to take. If you are a supplier – can you be part of that kind of action? – by offering some of your products as part of a new range? Because if you don’t – rest assured that someone else will

52. Yes – down they go!

66. Cutting marketing and advertising budgets will only be profitable in the short-term and ultimately the brand will emerge weaker

67. At a time of uncertainty people will go to where they feel safe and secure – they will buy their trusted brands. But they will need to be reminded to do so. So it is advisable not to slash budgets.

68. It is better to maintain advertising Share of Voice at or above Share of Market – and if other brands are cutting their budgets, the longer-term benefit of maintaining Share of Voice will be even greater.

79. Implications Volatility is on the rise and change is accelerating Are you ready for this?

80. Implications Underlying consumer needs and desires will remain Do you know what they are in your country and how they apply to your market sector?

81. Implications Markets, products and services will continue to be subject to continuous pressure to change Will you be changing? When are you changing?

82. Implications This all points to the need for greater innovation capability and management – and an overall flexibility Are you ready for this?

83. A final point to show how Everything changes Everything

85. The US Government has saved the AIG Insurance company from bankruptcy by buying 80% of the company for a mere $85,000,000,000. Yessir, that’s 85 billion dollars !

86. AIG is the proud sponsor of Manchester United football club

87. So now – the USA tax-payers are the proud sponsors of Manchester United (incidentally the team are not playing very well at the moment)

88. Which amuses me - because I am a supporter of rival club Manchester City Who they have just been bought by a mammoth Arab development corporation – and had a major victory in Cyprus last night.

89. And the fans now dress like this

90. Thank you very much. Best of luck to you all. And please remember ….

91. Hope for the best. And plan for the worst.

92. That’s what I do …. And I’m still around