Rising global food prices and domestic food security in Uganda require ongoing monitoring and analysis of indicators to understand trends and impacts. Key information needs include: 1) Monitoring domestic food prices, production, consumption and nutrition status to track food security. 2) Analyzing indicators to identify causes of changes, such as whether rising prices stem from global markets, weather, or other factors. 3) Assessing relationships between indicators like how crop failures or price hikes affect households. 4) Evaluating impacts of policies on food security, which requires methods like randomized trials. Balancing data collection costs and accuracy is important for effective policy responses.

1. Rising food prices and implications for information needs Nicholas Minot (IFPRI) Presented at the seminar “Food security information systems” 31 January 2011 Imperial Royale Hotel, Kampala

2. Rising food prices on international markets

3. Food prices in Ugandan markets: mixed trends Matoka prices rising & higher than usual Maize price rising but normal (as of November) Cassava price stable and normal (as of November) Source: FEWS-NET, 2011.

4. Food security – Definition “Food security exists when all people, at all times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food preferences for an active and healthy life”. Source: World Food Summit Plan of Action, Rome, 1996

5. Food security - Conceptual framework Labor, mgt Land Inputs Weather Population Preferences Income Food production Food demand International markets & trade Infrastructure and market efficiency Food prices Farm income Purchasing power of consumers Health Food intake Food utilization Sanitation Care practices & nutrition education Nutrition status

6. Food security - Policy instruments Research & extension Research, irrigation,mkt info Family planning Safety nets Land policy Roads, competition policy Trade policy Health, sanitation, & educ. spending Food aid Nutrition assistance

7. Food security – Sources of instability Weather-related supply shocks Price shocks from world markets

8. Food security – Types of information needs Monitoring of food security indicators Analysis and interpretation of food security indicators Relationships among food security indicators Impact of food & nutrition policy and programmes

9. 1. Monitoring food security indicators Food security indicators (“boxes” in conceptual framework) Issues in monitoring How frequent to monitor them? How many commodities to cover? How many locations to cover? What level of accuracy to seek given trade-off of cost & accuracy Decisions are often based on: Importance of indicator as a measure of food security Cost of collecting data

10. 1. Monitoring food security indicators Daily or weekly monitoring Domestic and international food prices Weather Monthly monitoring International trade Semi-annual or annual Food and agricultural production Use of fertilizer and other inputs Every 5-10 years Food consumption, expenditure, and income Nutrition status at national level Population

11. 2. Analysis & interpretation of indicators Why is analysis and interpretation important? Policy response depends on cause of the problem Not enough to know the trend, must understand causes behind it Example: Rising grain prices in Ethiopia 2006-08 Alternative hypotheses: Part of inflationary trend Rural households consuming more grain Rural households storing more grain Traders hoarding grain to drive up price New safety net programme increasing demand for grain Increase in cross-border exports of grain Shortfall in production Study methods Farm survey, trader survey, cross-border trade study, ag sector model

12. 2. Analysis & interpretation of indicators Why is analysis and interpretation important? Policy response depends on cause of the problem Not enough to know the trend, must understand causes behind it Example: Rising grain prices in Ethiopia 2006-08 Alternative hypotheses: Findings: Part of inflationary trend Contributing factor Rural households consuming more grain No evidence Rural households storing more grain No evidence Traders hoarding grain to drive up price No evidence New safety net programme increasing demand for grain Too small to affect Increase in cross-border exports of grain Too small to affect Shortfall in production Contributing factor Study determined that causes were: Inflationary trend and shortfall in production

13. 3. Relationship among food security indicators Relationships among indicators (black arrows in the conceptual framework) Examples: What is the effect of changes in world maize prices on domestic maize prices? If rains are 30% less than usual, how will this affect the rice output? What is the effect of higher cassava prices on domestic production? If matoke prices rise 50%, what will be the effect on food consumption and nutrition among different types of households? Methods Usually requires good data and statistical analysis Example 1: Analysis of effect of world markets on domestic food prices requires 5-10 years of monthly data and time-series econometrics analysis Example 2: Analysis of the effect of price changes on different types of households requires data from a national household income-expenditure survey

14. 3. Relationship among food security indicators Sometimes findings go against conventional wisdom (CW) CW: “World markets affect African food prices” Data: Monthly data on world grain prices & 62 African food prices Method: Error-correction model Results: Only 13 of 62 prices linked to world markets of same commodity About half of rice prices linked to international markets Only 10% of maize prices linked to international markets Explanation: Most African countries are almost self-sufficient in maize but much of rice comes from world markets CW: “Farmers benefit from higher grain prices” Data: Household survey data from numerous African countries Method: Simulate impact of price change on rural households Results: 40-60% of households are net buyers of grain & lose from higher prices Benefits concentrated among larger farmers

15. 4) Impact of food & nutrition policies & programs Impact of policy & programs (blue arrows in the conceptual framework) Examples: What is the effect of the current import tariff on maize? What is the effect WFP purchases of Ugandan maize? What is the effect of school feeding programs in Uganda? Methods Good: Analysis of data from one household survey Can establish correlation but not causation Better: Analysis of panel data (2+ surveys covering same households) Gives strong indication of causation, but selection bias: participants in programme may be different than non-participants. Best: Randomized control trials Randomization ensures similarity of programme participants and non-participants so outcomes can be compared

16. Conclusions Food security conceptual framework helps identify information needs Data collection affected by cost of collecting indicators Four types of food security information Food security indicators Analysis and interpretation of indicators Relationship among indicators Impact of food & nutrition policies on indicators Trade-off between accuracy and cost Information needs depend on policy issues facing government