This document describes a methodology for forecasting schedules on high-technology projects by measuring potential risks in the form of threats and liens. It compares schedule reserve to identified threats and liens, outlines a project assessment model, and provides examples of threats and liens schedules, vehicle delivery status plots, historical events, and forecasts of completed and future activities. The methodology enables evaluation of daily issues that could impact schedules and improves forecasts over time as risks are retired.

1. 10/15/04 1
Schedule Forecasting Methodology
Measurement of Potential Risks on High
Technology Projects
John Isom
Gray Research, Inc.

2. 10/15/04 2
Contents
• Objective and Approach 3
• Schedule Reserve vs Liens & Threats Comparison 4
• Project Assessment Model 5
• Threats and Liens Schedule 6
• Vehicle Delivery Status Plot 7
• Events (Historical) 8-9
• Forecast Schedule Accuracy 10-11
PageSlide

3. 10/15/04 3
Objective and Approach
• Approach developed by the Gravity Probe B business team and
applied to X-37.
• Identifies threats and liens above and beyond project risks.
These threats and liens could result in new project risks.
• Apply threats and liens to current contractor forecasts, based on
past contract performance and assessment by gov’t technical and
business experts.
• Method enables evaluation of the day-to-day project issues that
may impact critical path.
• As key technical risk and liens are “burned down” they are
removed from the forecast and retired. Forecast dates are
improved (if applicable).

4. 10/15/04 4
Schedule Reserve vs Liens Threat Comparison
• Identify project liens and threats
• Durations not in the baselined plan (liens)
• Durations approved by Program Control Board (PCB) and in baselined schedule
plan (threats)
• Quantify unplanned durations in time (weeks, days, hours)
• Develop a realization factor (subjective assessment)
• Compute the total unplanned durations into a lien and threat amount.
• Develop schedule reserve
• Weekends are used for schedule reserve. Other methods can be used to develop
schedule reserve.
• Compare the actual schedule reserve plot to the liens and threats.
• Provides advance planning techniques by using quantifiable measures
of schedule risk.

5. 10/15/04 5
Project Assessment Model
• Contractor realizes effects of plan
risks resulting in poor
performance.
• Contractor establishes new
forecast based on poor
performance driving schedule
logic.
• During performance, liens and
threats are identified outside of
the planned risk. Identified on a
daily basis and assessed.
• Govt. establishes new forecast
based on identified liens and
threats.
• Govt. tracks reserve plan vs.
actual reserve usage. In addition,
liens and threats plot is provided.
• Contractor realizes effects of plan
risks resulting in poor
performance.
• Contractor establishes new
forecast based on poor
performance driving schedule
logic.
• During performance, liens and
threats are identified outside of
the planned risk. Identified on a
daily basis and assessed.
• Govt. establishes new forecast
based on identified liens and
threats.
• Govt. tracks reserve plan vs.
actual reserve usage. In addition,
liens and threats plot is provided.
• Task in place with resources
• Contractor identified risks
monitored with Continuous Risk
Management (CRM)
• Budget reserve provided
• Task in place with resources
• Contractor identified risks
monitored with Continuous Risk
Management (CRM)
• Budget reserve provided
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
11/28
12/12
12/26
1/9
1/23
2/6
2/20
3/5
3/19
4/2
4/16
4/30
5/14
5/28
6/11
6/25
7/9
7/23
8/6
8/20
9/3
9/17
10/1
10/15
10/29
11/12
Days
Rollout Reserve
Rollout Reserve Remaining
Cont Slack
Rollout Threat and Liens
Exp. Finish
Baseline Plan Plan Risk
Early Finish
Planning
Exp.
Finish
Contractor
Est.
Risk Liens
Forecast
Finish Govt.
Est.
Actual Performance
Early Finish
Execution
FY04 FY05 FY06
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N
11 8/21
Sys Test 2 Start
Sys Test 3 Start
22 2
TRR
11/15
Contractor
Est.
VOP
11/25 2/9 Govt. Est VOP 33 3
FRR 44 4
1C TRR
FOCC Del
to Range
FCA/PCA AFSRB 55 5
11/15 11/25 2/9
11 22 33 44 55
1 2 3 4 5
Vehicle Assembly
System Test 1
Mechanical Installations
System Test 2
Thermal Systems Integration
System Test 3
Vehicle Prep
Vehicle Out of Plant
Ground Testing
Captive Carry Tests
Contractor Forecast
Govt. Forecast
Subcomponent CKT Testing
FY04 FY05 FY06
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N
11 8/21
Sys Test 2 Start
Sys Test 3 Start
22 2
TRR
11/15
Contractor
Est.
VOP
11/25 2/9 Govt. Est VOP 33 3
FRR 44 4
1C TRR
FOCC Del
to Range
FCA/PCA AFSRB 55 5
11/15 11/25 2/9
11 22 33 44 55
1 2 3 4 5
Vehicle Assembly
System Test 1
Mechanical Installations
System Test 2
Thermal Systems Integration
System Test 3
Vehicle Prep
Vehicle Out of Plant
Ground Testing
Captive Carry Tests
Contractor Forecast
Govt. Forecast
Subcomponent CKT Testing

6. 10/15/04 6
Threats and Liens Schedule
FY04 FY05 FY06
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N
11 8/21
Sys Test 2 Start
Sys Test 3 Start
22 2
TRR
11/15
Contractor
Est.
VOP
11/25 2/9 Govt. Est VOP 33 3
FRR 44 4
1C TRR
FOCC Del
to Range
FCA/PCA AFSRB 55 5
11/15 11/25 2/9
11 22 33 44 55
1 2 3 4 5
Vehicle Assembly
System Test 1
Mechanical Installations
System Test 2
Thermal Systems Integration
System Test 3
Vehicle Prep
Vehicle Out of Plant
Ground Testing
Captive Carry Tests
Contractor Forecast
Govt. Forecast
Subcomponent CKT Testing
FY04 FY05 FY06
J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N
11 8/21
Sys Test 2 Start
Sys Test 3 Start
22 2
TRR
11/15
Contractor
Est.
VOP
11/25 2/9 Govt. Est VOP 33 3
FRR 44 4
1C TRR
FOCC Del
to Range
FCA/PCA AFSRB 55 5
11/15 11/25 2/9
11 22 33 44 55
1 2 3 4 5
Vehicle Assembly
System Test 1
Mechanical Installations
System Test 2
Thermal Systems Integration
System Test 3
Vehicle Prep
Vehicle Out of Plant
Ground Testing
Captive Carry Tests
Contractor Forecast
Govt. Forecast
Subcomponent CKT Testing

7. 10/15/04 7
Vehicle Delivery Status Plot
(Historical)
-62d Total
Slack
-80
100
11/28
12/12
12/26
1/9
1/23
2/6
2/20
3/5
3/19
4/2
4/16
4/30
5/14
5/28
6/11
6/25
7/9
7/23
8/6
8/20
9/3
9/17
10/1
10/15
10/2911/12
Rollout Reserve
Rollout Reserve Remaining
Cont. Slack
Rollout Threat and Liens
-61d Reserve
Remain
88d project risk
and liens
possible
Contractor to 6 day week
schedule available reserve 1 day
per week
Cont.
VOP
Est
8/26/04
Govt.
VOP Est
11/23/04
5 6 7
1
1
2 3
4
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
Days
9 10
11
13
12
8
Definitions
Rollout Reserve – The weekly
burndown of planned reserve in days
(weekends).
Rollout Reserve Remaining – The
difference in reserve and contractor
calculated slack
Cont. Slack – The total number of
days of slack reported in the
Contractor Integrated Master
Schedule (IMS) (monthly input)
Rollout Threats and Liens – The
govt. calculated threats and liens
compiled during project meetings and
from other information sources.
Definitions
Rollout Reserve – The weekly
burndown of planned reserve in days
(weekends).
Rollout Reserve Remaining – The
difference in reserve and contractor
calculated slack
Cont. Slack – The total number of
days of slack reported in the
Contractor Integrated Master
Schedule (IMS) (monthly input)
Rollout Threats and Liens – The
govt. calculated threats and liens
compiled during project meetings and
from other information sources.

8. 10/15/04 8
Events
(Historical)
Delays in Pallet and Cabling Fabrication
Delays in Completing Wirebird Testing, electrical component delivery delays
Electrical component delivery, Control Surfaces Fabrication, Flight Actuator/Controller, TPS
Fabrication and Installation delays. Improvement in Slack based on resolution of Testing
starting earlier using 3.0 S/W.
Delays in Flight Controllers delivery, TCS and TPS Installation fab and installation delays.
Improvement in slack status due to contractor going to 6 day work week. Greater
improvement if First flight slack and date than in the Rollout date. Rollout slack remains the
same but since more work days are involved, improved rollout date is the result.
Delays in the completion of pallet integration for testing. Component 1 the primary driver.
TPS installation could be the looming problem in the future. Contractor lacks the resources to
stay on plan.
Delay in start of test pushes out both rollout and FF by 5 days.
Delay in S/W Delivery.
Improved Threats and Liens due to completion of testing, Ruddervator lien added.
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9

9. 10/15/04 9
Events
(Historical)
Ruddervator Actuator Lien changed to a threat (within the Contractor schedule) increased to
effect 10 days due to contractor forecast of 7/15 completion of installation of LH Ruddervator
(Constraint to testing) and Pneumatic tubing lien added due to cleaning facility breakdown at
plant, may result in up to a week slip (Contractor working to resolve ASAP).
Cleaning facility back in action; realized 1 day slip in pneumatic tubing installation.
CKT Adapter procurements may delay testing up to a month.
CKT Adapter procurements will delay testing for one month, expected testing start to be now
7/15.
10
11
12
13

10. 10/15/04 10
Forecast Accuracy
(Completed Activities)
• This schedule approach was implemented and forecasting of Test 1 validated this
approach.
• The following table summarizes the comparison of the contractor forecast to the
Govt. forecast.
Govt. Schedule
Update (Weekly)
Forecast
Date
Cont. DR
Submission
Forecast
Date
3/24/04 6/7/04 March-04 5/11/04
3/31/04 6/7/04
4/6/04 6/7/04 April-04 5/27/04
4/13/04 6/7/04
4/21/04 6/15/04
4/28/04 6/9/04
5/5/04 6/14/04 May-04 5/27/04
5/12/04 6/17/04
5/19/04 6/8/04
5/26/04 6/8/04
Test 1 Complete The Govt. generated
Threats and Lien’s not
included in the Contractor
plan correctly predicted
the completion of testing 3
months prior to the
contractor estimate. The
Contractor schedule did
not forecast the correct
end date until June 04.
Test1 was completed on 6/7/04

11. 10/15/04 11
Forecast Accuracy
(Future Activities)
Contractor
provided a new
proposed baseline
schedule in July
2004. The new
dates coincide
more correctly with
the Govt. risk
schedule predicted
in June 2004.
Cont. Baseline
Cont. Forecast
Govt. Forecast
Cont. Proposed New
Baseline
FY04 FY05
N D J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J
Task
Test 1 Complete
Thermal Installation Comp.
Test 2 Complete
Test 3 Complete
Vehicle Out of Plant
Ground Operations
Captive Carry Complete
First Flight