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Hilltop Decorrelated Fund delivers decorrelated returns in highly correlated environment
1.
© 2013 Hilltop
Fund Management LLP | Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority | +44 (0)20 7788 7799 | www.hilltop.co.uk 1 Underlying Portfolio fund* Headline strategy weighting ATP Equity long/short non-directional 11.4% SAC Volatility arbitrage 10.4% RAB Trade finance 9.8% CRA Equity long/short non-directional 9.7% FJE Activist credit 9.3% LOP Long/short convertibles 8.0% FSP Relative value commodity 7.1% CBK Volatility arbitrage 6.5% PGD Equity long/short non-directional 6.1% SEK Activist micro-cap equity 5.7% TCC Equity long/short non-directional 5.4% IAH Fixed income arbitrage 5.1% WTH Long/short commodity 4.4% TEM Long/short mortgages 4.3% SUT Long/short commodity equities 3.3% COK Macro volatility 3.2% The Hilltop Decorrelated Fund Delivering decorrelated returns in a highly correlated environment The Hilltop Decorrelated Fund was down 0.2% in August, with half our sixteen managers up and half down. The attribution of both was very similar (gross the fund was flat) with costs carrying us down 0.2%. No funds performed outside of expectations. As mentioned in our July factsheet, we are currently undertaking a comprehensive review of our entire shortlist, unsatisfied as we are with performance year to date. This process has highlighted a number of outstanding managers exploiting niche opportunity sets, which we believe will continue to deliver strongly asymmetric returns, quite independent of market conditions. We have started to add four of these funds to the portfolio (two in August and two in September) and expect a couple more to follow suit shortly. We are confident that these changes, once finalised, will help push our monthly returns closer to our target of +0.9% each month (not, of course, in a straight line but with relatively few (and minor) losing months and with no discernible correlation to traditional benchmarks. Monthly perf (%)* Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec YTD 2013 -0.8 0.3 0.1 0.5 -1.0 -0.2 0.5 -0.2 -0.8 2012 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.2 0.5 1.0 0.8 -0.3 0.3 -0.1 -0.3 2.7 9.7 2011 2.6 0.0 0.7 2.8 2.0 1.2 2.2 -0.4 2.0 0.4 3.6 4.2 23.2 2010 0.1 2.7 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.1 0.5 3.1 1.0 2.5 0.8 1.7 17.5 2009 2.7 -0.3 1.4 2.3 2.6 0.3 1.8 0.2 1.9 2.1 3.6 1.1 21.7 2008 2.3 -0.3 -1.5 0.5 2.9 1.4 -0.3 0.3 -0.7 5.1 3.0 1.8 15.0 * Pro forma results are shaded in grey. Results are shown net of all fees and costs assuming a fund size of $20m excluding any redemption fees. 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 -6% 0% 6% 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 The Hilltop Decorrelated Fund MSCI World Index HFRI Fund Weighted Composite Index HFRI FoF Composite Index $0 $250 $100 Risk metrics (January 2008 – August 2013) 0 to 2 2 to 4-2 to 0 4 to 6-4 to -2-6 to -4 % returns Numberofmonths 0 10 20 30 40 NAV impact per fund Profit/loss ratio = 1.0x 0% -0.4% 0.4% 8 funds down, avg contribution per fund -1.0% 8 funds up, avg contribution per fund +0.09% FSP SAC E E EE E E E EE E FJEWTH CBKCRA ATP TEM TCC RAB SEKCOKIAH SUT LOPPGD 2010 2011 2012 High correlation Medium correlation Low correlation -1 0 1 Distribution of returns Contribution analysis (August 2013) Rolling 24-mth correlation with MSCI World Historical performance Growth of $100 since inception Asset allocation Length of track record Liquidity AUM ($m) Portfolio characteristics (as at August 2013)Portfolio snapshot Monthly (71%) Quarterly (29%) R e d u ci ng Lending (8%) Bonds/FI (4%) Mortgages (4%) Volatility (17%) Equities (35%) Commodities (10%) Cash (8%) Credit (14%) >9yrs (27%) >2yrs<5yrs (56%) >5yrs<9yrs (17%) D eclini ng >1bn (12%) <50 (24%) >100<200 (5%) >200<500 (25%) >500<1bn (15%)>50<100 (19%) D eclini ng The pros and cons of ‘back-tests’ Never seen a bad ‘back-test’? Neither have we. Discounting pro forma results is sober – that said, this portfolio is clearly able to deliver excellent returns with: a lack of down months, low correlation and low (c.5%) volatility, which we are confident can be maintained. See overleaf for more guidance. Decor- related Fund* HFR FoF Composite HFR Fund Weighted Composite MSCI World Total return 120.5% -4.7% 11.9% -7.3% Compound annual 15.0% -0.8% 2.0% -1.3% Annual volatility 4.6% 6.2% 7.4% 19.9% Downside deviation¥ 1.3% 5.6% 5.8% 15.6% Max drawdown -1.8% -21.4% -20.1% -52.7% Sharpe ratio¥ 2.6 -0.6 -0.1 -0.2 Sortino ratio¥ 9.2 -0.7 -0.2 -0.3 % positive periods 79.4% 58.8% 60.3% 50.0% Average gain 1.6% 1.1% 1.5% 4.5% Average loss -0.5% -1.7% -1.8% -4.4% Skewness 0.5 -1.4 -0.8 -0.7 ¥ Assumes minimum acceptable return of 3%. Uses actual fund duration data except for two funds which use strategy duration. August 2013 -0.2%e An estimate, based on actual results from 6/16 funds and an estimate from 10/16 funds
2.
© 2013 Hilltop
Fund Management LLP | Regulated and authorised by the Financial Conduct Authority | +44 (0)20 7788 7799 | www.hilltop.co.uk 2 ISIN: GI000A1J6ZB9 (USD) GI000A1T87X1 (GBP) Bloomberg: HTDCBC2 TL Target returns An average of 10-12% p.a. net of fees over a three-year period Expected volatility Less than 5% Correlation target A maximum of 0.4 to the MSCI World Index over any three-year period and on average closer to zero Investment liquidity 75% of AuM invested in funds with monthly redemption or better Leverage Maximum of 33% long-term and 10% short-term Target size $500m Share class USD (£ and € to follow) Fund domicile / type Gibraltar / Experienced Investor Fund Minimum investment $10k if invested via a life wrapper, $ equivalent of €50k if advised by an IFA, €100k if investing directly Fund liquidity Monthly Redemption notice 45 days’ notice Fees Initial fee: none Management fee: 1.75% Performance fee: 10% above HWM with 3% trigger Redemption fee: 5% reducing Fund manager Hilltop Fund Management LLP Auditors Deloitte, Gibraltar Custodian Royal Bank of Canada Administrator Helvetic Fund Administration Legal advisers Eversheds LLP, Hassans International Contact Cressida St Aubyn, Investor Relations cressida.staubyn@hilltop.co.uk Distribution partner The Synergy Partnership +603 2301 0930 Hilltop’s Portfolio Manager, Rory Hills, started his career in financial markets in 1986 and for 27 years has maintained an on-going and detailed engagement with a great many fund managers employing a wide range of investment strategies. Since 2002, Rory has focused on selecting hedge funds for potential inclusion in fund of hedge fund (FoHF) portfolios, first at Dexion Capital where he also held in the region of 1,000 meetings with FoHFs and for the past three years at Hilltop. This has given him tremendous insight into the hedge fund industry. During this time Rory has demonstrated a talent for recognising exceptional investment managers and strategies, for example 12 of the 13 funds he was associated with during the credit crisis (Jul ‘07 to Feb ‘09), either to represent to investors and/or for personal investment, were up in the period - half of them by more than 30%. This combination of long-standing experience in respect of understanding asset management strategies; a real appreciation of what does and does not work within FoHFs; together with a proven ability to identify distinctive, value-added hedge fund strategies, is the ideal grounding for managing the Hilltop Decorrelated Fund. Investment thesis Investment approach Who are Hilltop, and why listen? Most liquid investments (and plenty that are illiquid too) are heavily influenced by how “risk assets” are performing (for which the MSCI World Index is an excellent proxy) and consequently tend to be highly correlated to one another. The obvious exception is ‘highly rated’ government bonds but these look expensive, yield almost nothing and what can be considered ‘highly rated’ is a moveable feast creating a ‘credit’ element to owning government bonds which previously did not exist. By investing in a range of ‘low correlation’ strategies (those seeking to deliver returns independent of market directionality), the Hilltop Decorrelated Fund has been designed to deliver the stable, decorrelated return profile sought by so many investors. To achieve its targets Hilltop adopts a multi-manager approach investing in ten to 15 hedge fund strategies, across the globe, which we are convinced can deliver decorrelated returns on a sustainable basis. It is an important feature of our approach that we are not making any ‘macro calls’ and – with rare exceptions – neither are the managers we are investing with. This is partly because we do not believe anyone has an edge in making such calls and partly because even if they did, they would wish to be highly correlated in a bull market which runs counter to our ambition of being decorrelated at all times (it is entirely possible to be up in a bull market without being correlated). Our preference is for managers pursuing a clearly defined opportunity set and with the requisite investment skills to exploit it. Whilst, on occasion, this could include managers operating in unconventional areas the primary focus is on managers operating in mainstream asset classes (equities, fixed income, FX and commodities) but in unusual and/or distinctive ways. The fund will not invest in managers with less than a 2 ½ year track record. 27 yrs’ dialogue with fund managers 11 yrs’ hedge fund experience c.1,800 single managers reviewed c.1,000 meetings with FoHFs Optimal background for a FoHF manager Rory Hills’ key highlights Target investor audience The Hilltop Decorrelated Fund is targeted at investors seeking consistent returns with low volatility, very limited drawdowns and which are genuinely decorrelated to equity markets even in moments of financial crisis. Whilst Hilltop believes this return profile is attractive at any point in the investment cycle, the current environment of low interest rates and increased correlations amongst asset classes makes it particularly compelling. The pro forma results presented overleaf need to be properly qualified because, although the results of the underlying funds are real and reflect the actual mix that the invested portfolio will have at inception, the portfolio was not in existence prior to its launch on 1 October 2012. Its selection is inevitably influenced, at least to some degree, by past performance. Nonetheless, there are useful interpretations which we can draw from the data though it is important to understand which type of metrics may provide a reasonable guide to future performance and which may not. Return metrics should be most significantly discounted as it is these which are most heavily affected by the benefit of performance hindsight and it is inevitable that some funds will fail to deliver in the future the returns they have delivered in the past. However, we can say from the data that as a combination, this group of funds is very capable of delivering excellent returns. In respect of ‘risk’ metrics, we do believe quite a lot can be read into the volatility of the pro forma results because, whilst future performance at the sub-fund level may look different from how it did in the past, the range of monthly returns should not (this being a core part of Hilltop’s analysis). Similarly, we believe a good deal can be garnered from the pro forma in respect of the future correlation profile of this portfolio. It is a central part of our analysis that these funds are able to deliver returns uncorrelated to each other as well as risk assets in general and we expect this portfolio to exhibit the same level of low correlation in the future as the pro forma has shown in the past. Of particular note is that this data categorically disproves the fallacy that a portfolio of non‑correlated funds will ‘cancel each other out’. How to interpret the pro forma results in this document This document does not constitute or form part of, and may not be used for the purpose of, an offer or solicitation to anyone in any jurisdiction in which such offer or solicitation is not authorised or to any person to whom it is unlawful to make such offer or solicitation. Shares in the Hilltop Decorrelated Fund (the “Fund”) will not be offered to the general public. This document may not be distributed in any jurisdiction where it is unlawful to do so. A subscription for shares in the Fund may only be made in reliance on the private placement memorandum and relevant supplement of Hilltop Funds PCC Limited by persons who are eligible to subscribe as set out in such documents. While the information in this document has been prepared in good faith, no representation or warranty, express or implied, is or will be made and no responsibility or liability is or will be accepted by the Fund or Hilltop Fund Management LLP (“Hilltop”) or by any of their respective members, officers, employees or agents in relation to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this document and any such liability is expressly disclaimed. In particular, but without prejudice to the generality of the foregoing, no representation or warranty is given as to the achievement or reasonableness of any future projections, management estimates, prospects or returns contained in this document. Actual results may vary from estimates. Hilltop is not acting for any recipient of this document. Hilltop is not responsible to such a recipient for providing protections afforded to clients of Hilltop and Hilltop is not advising such a recipient in respect of investing in Hilltop Funds PCC Limited. Past performance is not a guide to future performance. The ‘pro-forma’ results in this document are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of the historical data of the intended underlying fund investments utilised by the Fund at its inception and in the same mix at the launch date of the Fund. There is no assurance that the Fund will be able to invest in the intended underlying funds at launch and/or at the level intended. There is also no assurance that the Fund would have achieved the returns shown prior to August 2012 and the pro-forma returns are shown for illustrative and informational purposes only and should not be construed as an indicator of future performance of the Fund or any other fund managed by Hilltop. Pro-forma returns do not represent actual trading and may not reflect the impact that material economic and market factors might have had on any decision-making if the portfolio were actually being managed. The pro-forma returns also assume that the Fund would have been able to purchase the securities recommended by the model and that the markets were sufficiently liquid to permit this trading. Hilltop has clients other than the Fund and results across clients may differ materially. Disclaimer
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