1) The document discusses BP's Energy Outlook 2030 report which projects growing global population, GDP, and energy demand through 2030, driven mainly by industrialization in non-OECD countries. 2) Power generation is expected to be the leading driver of growth in primary energy use, with most new power generation coming from gas, coal, and renewables like wind and solar. 3) Renewable energy, especially in power generation, is projected to experience strong growth between now and 2030, with its share of global power generation rising from around 3% currently to over 15% by 2030.

1. Dominic Emery, Chief Development Office, BP
Alternative Energy
5 June 2013
Cambridge
5th Annual Smart Grids & Cleanpower 2013
Conference
www.cir-strategy.com/events/cleanpower

2. © BP 2013
0
3
6
9
12
1990 2010 2030
OECD
non-OECD
0
2
4
6
8
1990 2010 2030
OECD
Non-OECD
0
25
50
75
100
1990 2010 2030
OECD
Non-OECD
Population, income and energy growth
Energy Outlook 2030
Billion
Population GDP
Trillion $2011 PPP Billion toe
Primary energy

3. © BP 2013
Industrialisation drives energy growth
OECD
Non-OECD
Billion toe
Energy Outlook 2030
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1990 2010 2030
OECD
Non-OECD
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1990 2010 2030
Other
Power
generation
Transport
By primary use By fuelBy region
Oil
Coal
Gas
Billion toe Billion toe
Industry
0
3
6
9
12
15
18
1990 2010 2030
Hydro
Nuclear
Renew.*
Oil
Coal
Gas
*Includes biofuels

4. © BP 2013
The power sector leads primary energy growth
Growth by sector and fuel,
2011-2030
Growth by sector and region,
2011-2030
-1
0
1
2
3
Transport
Industry
Other
Power
Hydro
Nuclear
Renew.
Electricity
Gas
Biofuels
Oil
Coal
Final energy use Inputs to power
Billion toe
-1
0
1
2
3
Transport
Industry
Other
Power
RoW
Middle East
China &
India
OECD
Final energy use Inputs to power
Billion toe
Energy Outlook 2030

5. © BP 2013
Non-fossil fuels
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Renewables
Biofuels
Hydro
Nuclear
Billion toe
Renewables in power
Biofuels
OECD
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030
Non-OECD
Billion toe
Energy Outlook 2030

6. © BP 2013
Growth of renewables in power
OECD
Non-OECD
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2000 2010 2020 2030
Nuclear
1970-2000
Renewables
2000-2030
1970 1980 1990 2000
0%
3%
6%
9%
12%
15%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
OECD
Europe
Other
OECD
Non-OECD
Growth (RHS)
Share 2011
Share 2030
Renewable power
% p.a.% share
Share of power generation
Energy Outlook 2030
Growth 2011-30, and share of power

7. © BP 2013
Conclusion
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
Popul
ation
Income
per
capita
Economic
growth
Efficiency
gains
New supply
% p.a.
! Economic growth needs
energy
! Competition and innovation
are the key to meeting this
need
− energy efficiency
− new supplies
! Energy security and climate
change remain challenges
Energy Outlook 2030