1. Improving Customer Lifetime Value
Prudential: Approach to calculating Customer Lifetime Value
Goldenson Case Study Competition
Karan Shah, Alex Martin, Pauline Bielaszka, Long Du, and Robin Silvester
University of Connecticut
March 25, 2016

2. With the increasing availability of policyholder data due to recent development in the
digital age, Prudential wants to establish a better understanding of their customer base. To assist
with this effort, we have created a methodology to utilize predictive analytics applied to
consumer behavior data, combined with profitability measures, to get a better understanding of
the customer lifetime value (CLV) of a given customer. Customer value is the value and
potential value of profit margins that are generated by a policy that is being held. Present and
future profits are driven by mortality, lapses, type, size, and number of policies. To better gauge
customer value, we refined the two biggest detractors of CLV; mortality and lapse rates. We also
tried to account for factors that could potentially add to customer lifetime value and suggested
methods to implement that would accomplish this goal. We believe an annualized survey sent
out to policyholders would be beneficial in gathering trends among Prudential’s customer base
that can be used in the decision making process. Factors that could potentially add to customer
lifetime value include the implementation of innovative marketing strategies and a customer’s
propensity to purchase more insurance. We came up with ways to refine all factors and rates so
that in turn we can refine customer lifetime value. We looked into characteristics of people who
died young or lapsed in order to find common characteristics between past customers. Once
customer characteristics are analyzed, they can be used to better predict lapses and mortality,
therefore improving the accuracy of CLV. More specifically, insurance companies should try to
predict customer values on a more individualized basis. We have come up with the necessary
factors to ​build a generalized linear model for mortality by looking at the death claims that have
been paid historically and by identifying characteristics of policyholders that died early,
policyholders that died late, and linking their characteristics. We have also done this for lapse by

3. looking for common characteristics of past customers who lapsed. ​By refining components of the
current CLV equation, Prudential will be able to take the data of potential customers and form a
more accurate understanding of that customer's estimated value to the company. This way if a
customer comes through the door and has a high-predicted CLV, Prudential can make an effort
to market accordingly and ensure them as a future policyholder. Furthering our efforts to
increase an individual’s CLV, we came up with incentives for customers to stay with the
company when their policy expires and to encourage them to live healthier lives by providing
indirect discounts as a reward system.
The type of policy sold will differ in their profit margins. Prudential offers two main
types of life insurance coverage; term and universal. Within these two broad types of coverage,
Prudential offers various clauses that the customer may purchase in order to best suit their needs.
The ​value of the policy to the company therefore can largely depend on the type of policy, as the
profit margins likely differ between term and universal coverage.
Term insurance is typically for someone looking to sustain their family for a few years
after their death, and could be used by basically anyone including those of lesser income. In fact,
those who do not have a substantial amount of savings may be more likely to purchase term
insurance as protection in case one of the main providers of the household was to unexpectedly
pass away, especially if the insured has a dependent spouse and/or children. Typically, the
purchasing of insurance can be tied to major life events. A life insurance awareness poll
conducted by Northwestern Mutual found that “people who purchased life insurance are most
often prompted to buy life insurance as a result of marriage (32 percent), retirement planning (25
percent) or the birth of a child (22 percent)” (The Life Insurance Awareness Poll). With term

4. insurance, customers pay a level premium from which the company benefits, so long as they pay
enough premiums to cover upfront costs and there are not a substantial amount of death claims.
The following are term policies offered by Prudential: “Term Essential”, “Term Elite” where
you get conversion credit if you convert to a permanent policy in the first 5 years, “PruTerm
WorkLife 65” which is protection during your working years, “PruLife Return of Premium
Term”, and “PruTerm One” which lasts one to five years at most and acts as a stepping stone to
permanent insurance (Term Life Insurance).
With term insurance also comes the possibility of lapse, one of the primary detractors of
CLV. A lapse terminates a policy and its coverage due to a customer not having paid premiums
after a specified grace period. Lapse rates have to do with how many customers lapse and how
often, but do not include policy cancellation due to death, maturity, or a conversion (Fang).
Customers lapse on policies due to many factors. Most commonly, they no longer want to spend
their money on insurance. The customer may not have the money to spend, or they could simply
no longer feel the need to do so. Lapse rates could also, however, represent competition between
different companies. If a competing company has a policy that is financially better for a
customer, they may easily make the switch. Life insurance companies, such as Prudential, must
account for lapse rates when thinking of a customer’s CLV and in pricing products. Typically,
lapse rates tend to be high in the earlier years of the policy and decline as customer duration
increases. A high rate of lapse would mean that the company is no longer receiving cash inflows
(premiums) from multiple individuals; in other words, there is a low premium persistency. But
this also means that they do not face the risk of having to pay a benefit to these customers.
Therefore, higher lapse rates lead to higher priced insurance or lower bonuses. The price change

5. due to an increase in lapse rates is smaller, however, than a similar change in mortality rates,
discussed later in this dissertation (Belth).
If lapse rates are higher than initially predicted, there is an increased risk of losing
company profit margins. Recency, Frequency, and Monetary Value (RFM) as well as Recency,
Frequency and Duration (RFD) are two models that are sometimes used to help predict lapse
rates (Gupta). Such models use data recorded from prior customer purchases. Generally, the data
is broken into groups and assigned a rating that can be plugged into a model used to predict
customer behavior in the next period. A limitation of RFM and RFD models is that they are not
useful in predicting purchasing behavior beyond the subsequent period, and in calculating CLV
the company must be able to predict whether the customer will remain active for many years to
come. In utilizing these models to get a better sense of customer purchasing behavior and
whether a person has obtained multiple policies and lapsed in the past, Prudential may be able to
better predict lapse rates.
Most times when a customer lapses, it is assumed that they are not purchasing additional
products in the near future, detracting from that individual’s CLV. However, this is not always
the case, and therefore can understate a customer’s value. One way the company could try to
improve their factoring in of lapse rates in CLV is by looking at a customer’s credit score. If they
have a higher credit score, the customer would probably be more likely to pay premiums and to
pay them on time, making them less likely to lapse. Main factors that can help determine whether
a customer lapses include their income, occupation, the magnitude and persistency of premium
payments, geographic location, year of issue, any previous ownership of life insurance,
experience of the insurance agent, and so on. Someone who is younger with a low income is

6. probably more likely to lapse as they may either view the insurance as unnecessary or may not
have sufficient funds to pay the monthly premiums (Belth). It is possible that lower-income
families would be priced out of the life insurance market if the individual’s annual income was
considered when selling the policy (Fang). For term insurance, there is no cash surrender value,
unlike in a universal policy. If a policyholder decides to lapse with universal coverage, they
would receive the surrender value, which would be substantially less than the death benefit. A
company needs to take into consideration the different values that may have to be paid to the
customer as well as the option of a life settlement. In a life settlement, the customer sells their
coverage to a third party for a value that is more than the surrender value. The policy still
continues on, but it is now the third party that is responsible for paying premiums and receiving
the death benefit of the customer. Doing this, not much changes for the insurance company but
the previous policyholder is free from the policy and what may have otherwise been a lapse is
prevented (​Page​).
Premium persistency is the percentage of a company’s written policies that uphold,
meaning lapsation or replacement by an insurance competitor is avoided. A higher persistency
would indicate a more satisfied customer base and sales execution. If a customer has a poor
premium persistency, they are more likely to lapse (Belth). This is obviously a very critical
factor in the company’s success and is one we would like to see increase in the future for
Prudential. There are certain measures that can be taken by insurance companies in order to try
to increase premium persistency and decrease lapse rates. For example, allowing the
policyholder to transform their term insurance into a permanent policy. This would ensure that

7. the customer has insurance until their death, and that they would be able to obtain the additional
benefits of having a permanent policy.
If a customer was to opt for a universal life instead of a term policy through Prudential,
they would have more flexible premium payments that could vary according to how much the
customer wants to pay, so long as any minimum cost specifications in the contract are met. As
previously mentioned, a universal life policy may lapse under circumstances in which the cash
value of the policy is no longer sufficient to cover administrative costs and insurance expenses.
Factors leading to a lapse in a Universal policy may include interest rates falling below projected
values, or a rise in the cost of insurance or administrative costs that could hinder one’s ability to
make the minimum premium payments (Universal Life Insurance). Universal life differs from
term not only by its more flexible premium payments, but also in its potential uses. Universal,
like term insurance, provides a death benefit. Universal, however, also has the potential for cash
savings. Though premiums are more flexible, they also tend to be higher because of this savings
element. For this reason, universal insurance is more likely to be purchased by someone who is
able to contribute a large sum each month to their life insurance policy. Those who have an
abundance of wealth are also more likely to invest in a universal policy as a means of trust and
estate planning, as investing in a permanent policy may enable one to escape paying estate taxes
if the value of their assets exceed $5,450,000 as of 2016 (IRS). Unlike term insurance, however,
level premiums are not paid throughout the policy period. Instead, a larger sum of cash can be
invested when the policy is first written and grows in value over time. Profit generated by
universal life insurance is generally better because more money is invested up front to build cash
value on the policy. The company, Prudential, can then invest this money to improve their

8. profitability. Additionally, they are able to obtain money from charges for insurance fees.
Prudential uses the value on the customer’s policy to essentially invest the money for the
policyholder, who in most cases can do so in a cheaper way themselves. If one is looking to
avoid paying estate taxes, however, the only feasible way to do so is through purchasing a
permanent policy.
Whether a customer opts for a term or universal policy, it is important that Prudential is
able to identify those who will likely prove to be a deficit either by lapsing on the policy or by
dying earlier than expected during the policy term. For this reason, our group decided to also try
and refine factors that could potentially lead to early mortality in the customer base.
Mortality rates are an integral factor that affect a customer’s lifetime value. Mortality
rates refer to the ​rate of deaths occurring in a defined population during a selected time interval.
Using the expected customer lifetime in calculating CLV typically overestimates a customer’s
value, sometimes substantially, as not everyone will live to their predicted lifespan (Gupta). This
is why we have tried to find better predictors for mortality to hopefully rectify what could now
lead to overestimating customer lifetime value. Our goal is find how occupations and hobbies
affect current policyholder’s health and chances of death in the long run. Understanding factors
that can lead to drastic changes in health will help insurance companies predict the behavior of
potential customers and how this may impact their CLV.
Through our analysis, we investigated properties of particular occupations and how
certain occupations show an association with higher mortality rates. We discovered that the
average rate of fatalities per 100,000 full-time equivalent workers is 3.5. Supplementary
information revealed that​ ​fishers and related fishing workers averaged 116 fatalities per 100,000

9. full-time equivalent workers, making fishing related work the most dangerous occupation
(Hosier). Additionally, we were able to obtain the percentage of worker fatalities by age. Ages
under 18 account for 1% of fatalities, ages 18 to 24 account for 6%, ages 25 to 34 account for
17%​, 35 to 44 account for 19%, ages 45 to 54 account for 25%, ages 55 to 64 account for 20%,
and ages 65 and older account for 12% of ​worker fatalities (Hosier​)​. This data shows the
distribution of deaths occurring across certain age intervals. ​This data may be useful in linking a
customer’s age to their probability of dying before their policy expires.
Insurance companies may overlook the fact that certain occupations can cause mental and
physical health damages, which may not be evident at the time the policy is written. A complete
physical check for possible diseases or health concerns should be conducted often to ensure that
the individual remains healthy and not just during the time at which the policy is initially
enacted. Ensuring that the individual maintains a healthy diet and exercise routine would add
potential value to the customer, which we will encourage through an incentive based system
discussed later. A physical is a good methodology to check a person's health status when a policy
is issued, but because a policy cannot be rewritten mid-term, possible future health issues that
have yet to appear introduce risk to the insurance company. Pinpointing which careers and
hobbies are more likely to have long term health effects which may manifest to workers later in
life would prove beneficial in better estimating a customer’s potential value to the company.
Those who participate in an athletic career or are heavily involved in recreational sports
make an interesting contribution to the CLV calculation on an individual basis. A​thletes usually
live a very healthy lifestyle, even after retirement. For this reason, they may appear to be
healthier than the average policyholder because of their athleticism, gruesome training standards,

10. and nourishing diet. However, recent data shows that those involved with occupations in the
athletic spectrum are prone to concussions and head trauma.​ Participating in events that may
cause repeated head trauma, such as American football, hockey, soccer, professional wrestling,
as well as in cases of physical abuse, can lead to neurodegenerative changes later in life. ​The
Center for Disease Control and Prevention reports show that the amount of reported concussions
has doubled in the last ten years. While the first traumatic hit can prove problematic in itself, the
second or third head impact can cause permanent long-term brain damage. According to a report
by the Analysis Research and Planning Corporation, an actuarial firm that was commissioned by
the players of the National Football League, about 14% of all former football players will be
diagnosed with Alzheimer’s disease and another 14% will develop moderate dementia
(Tejada-Vera).The actuarial analysts also suggested that former NFL players stand about twice
the risk as the general population to suffer from early-onset Alzheimer’s, Parkinson’s or
dementia. Even though this data does not account for college or amatuer leagues, it should be a
growing concern that many insurance companies take into account. According to the National
Vital Statistics System, the age adjusted death rate from Alzheimer's disease increased by 39
percent from 2000 through 2010 in the United States (Tejada-Vera). It is important for insurance
companies to monitor this trend because a serious disease such as Alzheimer's may not manifest
itself until after a policy is written and could potentially lead to early mortality in the customer.
Health issues, which can be related to occupation, are a factor that can cause one
customer to be riskier than another. It is imperative that a company like Prudential understands
this and is able to ​identify any issues that may become a concern to customers in the future. By
using data on the inherent dangers of particular occupations and characteristics of those who died

11. before their policy terminated, Prudential can use a generalized linear model to link factors such
as an individual’s occupation, age, and previous health history to come up with a better
predictive model for mortality. ​Although insurance companies require physicals during the
origination of the policy, they remain a mere general representation of the customer’s health and
may not catch deeply rooted health concerns that can come up later in life. ​By refining the
mortality portion of the CLV calculation, so that it accounts for customers on an individualized
basis, Prudential will gain a better understanding of their customer base and can use this
cognizance to improve company’s profitability.
A way to improve profitability by adding to the value that a customer presents to the
company would be to sell more of the company’s products to its customers. If Prudential tries to
cross-sell its products to customers by trying to get those with term insurance to convert or later
invest in one of their permanent policies, they can in turn increase these customer’s CLV.
Several term policies offered by Prudential such as “Term Elite” and “PruTerm One” do this by
offering conversion credit. Cross-selling life products would not only add additional value to the
company by improving customer margin over time, but by converting from term insurance to
more flexible premium payments in a universal policy, a potential lapse on the term insurance
may be prevented. The constraint is that we do not know the underlying motives that may have
led to the customer purchasing across categories. By implementing measures like an annual
survey to provide updates on the customer in conjunction with RFM/RFD models, however, we
may be able to better gauge changes that would be suggestive of the propensity to purchase
additional insurance and the possibility of purchasing across categories. Predictive

12. characteristics may include but are not limited to a sudden influx of wealth, an inheritance of
additional assets, or the purchase of a home or other property.
If Prudential is able to predict whether a customer has the inclination to purchase
additional life products, this would signify a positive contribution towards a customer’s CLV. In
order to capture the value of potential future policies we focused on another big piece of
customer lifetime value, which is the propensity for a customer to purchase additional products.
This can be determined by looking at what types of policyholders have multiple policies and
using these trends to target similar policyholders. For example, when someone first buys a
policy, Prudential should try to capture the chance they buy additional policies at sometime in
the future as a result of a triggering event. They can look at the current in-force and see if certain
policyholders are married but have been inactive for a while, showing that they have most likely
passed the period of time where they would buy more insurance. On the other hand, someone
who owns just one policy and is single and young has a greater chance of buying more insurance
in the future due to a triggering event such as marriage, kids, or retirement. If a policyholder is
young and married, he or she is a good candidate for purchasing additional policies in the future
if he or she has a child. Additionally, policyholders who recently retired may be more likely to
purchase annuity contracts or other products offered by the company. Overall, Prudential should
try to do an evaluation of in force before triggering events happen so they are able to market
additional policies to certain people who are likely to buy them.
Once Prudential is able to determine those who are likely to consider buying additional
insurance, they should provide an incentive so that these types of customers feel compelled to
purchase additional policies through Prudential and not a competitor. Prudential already offers

13. conversion credit if a customer were to switch from a term life insurance policy to universal.
Aside from trying to get a current customer to buy additional life insurance, however, a
customer’s lifetime value would increase if they were to buy products from Prudential outside of
the life realm by purchasing, for example, an annuity contract. Prudential could specifically
market products like annuity contracts to customers most likely to buy them by using available
data and targeting the specific demographic accordingly. If the company spread out the cost of
the annuity contract over many years, the cost may seem less intimidating to the customer. An
example of this would be to target current PruTerm WorkLife 65 customers, as these are people
who are currently in their working years and are receiving a steady stream of income. When
these people retire, however, their stream of income will cease along with their life insurance
coverage. Customers who currently have PruTerm WorkLife 65 coverage may no longer feel that
they need the death benefit provided by term insurance once they reach retirement age because
any dependent children are likely to be self sufficient and established by the time the policy
expires. For this reason, many of these customers may choose not to renew a policy with
Prudential. Knowing that these particular customers will retire within the next few years,
however, Prudential could market a deferred annuity contract option to these customers when
they purchase PruTerm WorkLife65 coverage so that when these customers retire they continue
to have a stream of income. By spreading the cost of the deferred annuity contract over the life of
the term insurance, the customer can have both term coverage during their working years and an
annuity following their retirement for what could be a small addition to the premiums a customer
would pay each month. If Prudential is able to successfully market and implement this process so
that customers purchase additional products, they would be able to add value to customers.

14. Another way to increase CLV is to reward customers for healthy living. This could be
done by offering free Fitbit’s to policyholders. This new and innovative solution provides
customers with the financial protection of a life insurance policy as well as the ability to stay
healthy and get rewarded for doing so. The insurance company can offer discounts on premium
payments in exchange for sharing health and wellness data with the company (Comstock). John
Hancock, a competing insurer, is currently investigating the usage of a vitality program. When
applicants first come in they are required to take an online health review to determine their
v​itality age which is an indicator of overall health, that may be higher or lower than their actual
age​ ​(John Hancock). The application process is just as easy as other policies, with the added
benefit of potential discounts. The program would offer points when a customer exercises
regularly, gets a flu shot, and keeps blood glucose, blood pressure, and cholesterol levels within
a desirable range (Comstock). Additionally, the program could offer points when a policyholder
goes to get annual health screenings. This would eliminate the downfalls of an annual survey in
which people can lie or choose not to respond. If policyholders have an incentive to get annual
health screenings, this will help Prudential track trends in the health of customers and link
common characteristics. Of course, the policyholder would be able to decline the sharing of such
data, but they would give up their ability to earn discounts in doing so. By participating in this
program, people will be motivated to take steps towards living a healthier lifestyle, making life
insurance more relevant in their daily lives. In turn, this will lead to profit increases for the
insurance company because improved health would likely reduce mortality rates, and increase
the value of an individual that chooses to participate in such incentives.

15. A similar incentive would be to offer customers a payment plan for an Apple Watch that
is dependent on performance. Customers can order the watch through the insurance company and
if they keep a sufficiently healthy lifestyle, they would be able to reduce their monthly payments.
So, the amount the customer pays monthly for their Apple Watch would depend on the number
of workouts they complete in a month. If the customer reaches a certain threshold, their monthly
payment would be zero (Vitality Active Rewards). Prudential can choose a timeframe for the
payments. For example, if the timeframe was 24 months, the cost of the Apple Watch would be
split between the months and the customer would have to continuously exercise within the time
frame to get the watch for free. Therefore, the customer would be improving their health by
living a healthier lifestyle for an extended period of time, causing a greater chance for them to
outlive their policy. This method does not actually discount premium payments on the insurance,
but on the watch. ​Alth​ough the insurance company has to pay for the Apple Watch, Fitbit, gym
membership, etc. the benefit to the company likely outweighs the cost. If the customer stays
healthy and lives longer so that they outlive their policy term, the insurance company will save
money on death claim payouts, increasing the value of the customer to the insurer.
Besides from looking at detractors of CLV, namely mortality and lapse rates, and ways to
increase customer value by manipulating customer behavior and the propensity to purchase
additional products, it is also important to consider factors or ways that company behavior could
influence customer value. For this reason, we decided to consider effects such as marketing and
industrial organization structure as well as customer networking, and how changes in these items
can impact profitability.

16. One way to possibly add to customer lifetime value would be to encourage globally
optimal behavior within the company, specifically when it comes to strategies such as marketing.
Marketing actions influence customer behavior via acquisition, retention, and cross-selling; this
in turn affects CLV and firm profitability (Gupta).​ For example, when it comes to encouraging
globally optimal behavior, most firms have two levels of marketing managers. Usually two lower
level managers are in charge of customer acquisition and retention and report to a higher-level
manager. Both lower level managers try to maximize acquisition and retention respectively but
the resulting outcome may be suboptimal for the company as a whole (Gupta). This is because
the customer base is slightly different. To acquire the most customers the company may offer
low rates or premiums to draw customers in. ​Low prices increase the probability of acquisition,
but studies show that this reduced the relationship duration with the customer (Gupta). ​Retaining
customers proves to be more challenging because though it may be easy to draw customers in,
when premiums steadily increase to cover the costs of insurance, those acquired become
dissatisfied and possibly lapse. In retaining customers, it is imperative to establish a good
relationship with the customer so they feel secure with their choice of insurer. Managers within
Prudential should collaborate to ensure that customers that are least likely to lapse are both
acquired and retained.
Drawing the right customer base to Prudential through marketing is surely an important
step in working to improve profitability within the company. In refining a customer's CLV,
however, Prudential should consider accounting for customer networking effects. Not only is it
important to establish a solid relationship with the customer to ensure that they continue to make
premium payments, but also so that they may refer additional customers in the future. “Most

17. research on CLV implicitly assumes the value of a customer is independent of other customers,
but customer network effects can be strong and ignoring them may lead to underestimating
CLV” (Gupta). If a customer were to give positive feedback to friends and family, these people
may be more likely to establish a relationship with the company in the future and could
potentially drive future profits and attribute more value to the individual customer.
Having a refined formula for customer lifetime value ensures that Prudential will be able
to better predict future profits generated by customers. This cultivated model will allow the
company to better predict and understand the customer base and their values so that it would be
possible to market the right policies to the desired potential customers. If the company is able to
link predictors and characteristics to the propensity to purchase more insurance, Prudential can
target their efforts towards cross-selling additional products to those who are more likely to buy
them. By refining mortality and lapse rates, the company will be able to try to avoid customers
with low customer lifetime value. If a customer lapses or dies, then the individual is no longer
valuable to the company so Prudential would want to avoid acquiring customers with a low
predicted CLV. The proposed strategy adds value to what companies may be doing to currently
address the issue. The current formula for customer lifetime value accounts for mortality and
lapse rates but all assumptions are on a general basis. By investigating and accounting for
predictors linked to customer lifetime value on an individual basis, we will hopefully create a
stronger, more accurate calculation. Improving structure within the company and using
predictors of customer characteristics to target company marketing efforts, we ​aim to attract
clients and encourage current customers to stay with the company when their policy expires. By
encouraging people to live healthier lives by providing incentives like discounts, Prudential adds

18. value to the customer base and their long-term profits. Implementing the aforementioned
methodologies will hopefully lead to not only an improvement in customer lifetime value, but an
ample improvement in customer satisfaction and solidify the relationship between Prudential and
their customers.

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