Innovation's Accelerated Future
•Download as PPTX, PDF•
1 like•291 views
TEDx FIT Talk Technological innovation outstrips social, cultural, legal systems, causing slowed or failed adoption. There are solutions to this dilemma. Different ways are needed for technology change / introduction / deployment / proliferation.
Recommended
More Related Content
What's hot
What's hot (19)
Viewers also liked
Viewers also liked (19)
Similar to Innovation's Accelerated Future
Similar to Innovation's Accelerated Future (20)
More from Karl Seiler
Recently uploaded
Recently uploaded (20)
Innovation's Accelerated Future
- 1. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC. Karl Seiler Innovations Accelerated Future
- 2. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC. “…it’s all changing so fast…”
- 3. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC.
- 4. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC. Milken Institute, Robert Fogel, University of Chicago
- 5. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC. Electricity, telephone, radio, television, mobile phones: FCC, www.fcc.gov/Bureaus/Common_Carrier/Notices/2000/fc00057a.xls.
- 6. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC.
- 7. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC. Gartner Hype-Cycle
- 8. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC. “The evil in the world almost always comes of ignorance, and good intentions may do as much harm as malevolence if they lack understanding.” Albert Camus
- 9. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC. $800 Internet-of-Things TRANSPORTATION billion/year by 2025
- 10. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC.2015 © PIVIT, LLC.
- 11. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC. $1.1 Internet-of-Things HEALTHCARE trillion/year by 2025
- 12. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC.
- 13. 2015 © PIVIT, LLC. Rest Devices, the Mimo smart baby onesie
- 14. 2015 (c) PIVIT, LLC. Karl Seiler President & Founder e: Karl@Piviting.com t: @pivitguru l: KarlSeiler m: 321-750-5165 THANKS
Editor's Notes
- Welcome everybody. Let’s explore innovation’s accelerating curve, some unintended consequences and some simple mitigations.
- Innovation surprises us. Because its new, outside our expectations, and often seems like magic. I share a “have you seen this yet…” moment every day with my social network. I also tend to talk to lots of people across diverse industries and nowadays I hear the same thing. “It is all changing so fast”. So I ask “Is it speeding up?”. No pause - “Definitely”. I ask “Is it good?”. They pause, they look down, look up, look back into my eyes. “Yes, I think so.” They brighten and say, “It is very exciting”. I want to talk to you about that “pause”. That pause is the space between the lightning and the thunder. I ask “How far ahead can you see”. These are typically serious and empowered people I am talking to. They tell me that their strategic planning has contracted; 25 year plans are now 10, 10 year plans are now 3 to 5, or more commonly they are just reacting. They just can’t predict how their world shakes out. Their usual “go-to experts” can’t reliably predict the future for them any more. But they do believe that their children’s and grand children’s world will be amazingly different. This conversation seems universal.
- So why the pause when asked “is it good”? The space between the lighting and the thunder. For one thing, the pace is accelerating. In many areas it is roughly exponential, not every thing can keep up at the same pace. So we have a bumpy rocket ride. We confuse technical capability with readiness to deploy. As a result we generate social frictions. But I have seen some crafty approaches that help smooth the way. I have stumbled across some tactics that really savvy teams are using to address innovation’s pace-driven hiccups.
- Here is a big arc. 11,000 years of human life changing innovation. Coincident with and enabling population expansion. From agriculture to writing to industrialization to germ theory to computing to the Internet. At this scale technology advances run straight up hill from today. So your life, your world, has no precedent. It is unique in all of history. In a highly interconnected and interdependent world, filled with a faster drumbeat of change, the fibers of social connections are stressed.
- Zoom in with a different lens. We see acceleration in adoption rates. Here is the increasing rate of mass adoption of communication tools. Phones to radios to TVs to mobile phones to the Internet. Moral. Technology is proliferating faster. New ideas spread quicker now. More population is impacted sooner.
- Zoom in and look through the lens of increasing compute power. This from Ray Kurzweil’s work."Law of Accelerating Returns". He asserts paradigm shifts become increasingly common, leading to "technological change so rapid and profound it represents a rupture in the fabric of human history”. The lighting and the thunder. So what’s the WHY of innovation’s acceleration. Here a few. Sheer Population - we have more people solving more problems coupled with the means to capture and proliferate new knowledge. More ideas spreading more quickly. Access - Not great, but getting better. Dramatically lower costs and widening access for the tools of innovation. Breakout work was once the province of the big lab, the big research project, the big library, the big budget. Now we see really leading edge tools like machine learning, custom manufacturing, cheap connectivity, online knowledge, and bio-engineering affordable in the level of the dorm room. Values - Innovation itself has moved from nice to encouraged to essential. For example, at the recent Climate Change Summit in Paris the private sector announced the Breakthrough Energy Coalition, to spearhead innovations, and accelerate the pace of finding solutions. We see examples of the rewards for successful innovators raised to cult heroes and becoming the wealthiest people on the planet. Innovation is proactively incubated, nurtured, and recruited. Innovation is increasingly recognized as a critical competitive asset. For example, the EU is urging abandonment of its privacy rules as it is seen to be stifling their innovative competitiveness. Just some of the drivers for the increasing pace.
- Arc after arc shows an accelerating trend. Each dot of innovation breakthrough on each arc has had its own wave of the adoption. Typically the curve of market penetration is described from left-to-right as; the innovators, followed by the early adopters, then the early majority, the late majority and then the lagging paranoid. The left-most birth of each adoption curve often contains a “Gartner hype cycle”. From left-to-right described as: a run up to the peak of inflated expectations, followed by a trough of disillusionment, if crossed then followed the slope of enlightenment, follow by the plateau of productivity. Each phase has its unique hurdles. Only a few make it across the big chasm in red. So the march of innovation-driven technical accomplishment is not smooth. Rather it is a messy fuzzy Slinky of expansion and collapse, false starts, over-reach, and flat plateaus, with many many short lines dead-ending in failure. Capability versus readiness. The space between lightning and the thunder. The frictions of change. Social systems, otherwise know as us peoples; our language, our culture, our perspectives, our laws, our economies do not change at the same pace as proliferating technical introductions. Society draft’s in the wake of technical change and its associated disruptions.
- So we experience unintended and unanticipated consequences. Good intentions may do as much harm as malevolence if they lack understanding. Why does this happen? The dance is like this. Some new technical capability is invented. Adoption starts, it gets popularized, usage spreads. Behaviors change, new roles are created, new situations arise, new language is created, subcultures emerge in pockets, new value systems are invented, new actors surface, role uncertainty ripples out, system-wide changes start, boundary frictions occurs, surprising use cases surface, unimagined problems arise, bad things happen, negative use cases are sensationalized becoming the primary thought drivers in the heads of people making decisions. The chasm opens is maw. Controls and safe guards are either; 1) non-existent, or 2) made up after the fact, or 3) are out of date by time of release. Things clamp down or are stopped, misguided legislation is adopted, advancement stalls or goes around, goes underground, or goes elsewhere, idea dies on the vine. Sometimes rightfully, sometimes at a loss for all. A bumpy ride. As innovation accelerates this process does not magically get better. It is working at cross purposes. Objectives are misaligned. It is the stress between leaping forward and landing on your feet. Examples are all around; climate change, nuclear proliferation, privacy loss, digital security gaps, easy access to information on how to do bad things, and so on.
- But I have seen this work. I have seen thoughtful, easy to enact process innovations at the bleeding edge of disruption. Take transportation. A really big sector in a major disruption extraordinaire. Internet-of-things impact on transportation is $800 billion per year by 2025. Earlier this month I met with state level department of transportation’s thought leaders and private sector experts talking about the autonomous vehicle revolution. Their charter: get everyone from here to there, save lives, solve traffic congestion, reduce emissions, improve compliance. Serious stuff. It was a beautiful thing, to witness the machinery of shared objectives. The vehicle innovators, the state government infrastructure managers, the legislators, the insurers, singing from the same hymn book. Lets seek alignment versus friction and get more people from here to there faster, safer, cheaper, cleaner. Their future is full of amazing innovations: Alternative fuel vehicles Cloud-connected, driver-assisted, and driverless cars, buses, pods, trucks, trams. Vehicle-to-vehicle and vehicle-to-infrastructure connectivity - think a mobile perception sensor mesh moving down the road together sharing context Drones inspecting everything in the air and under the water They are predicting a big shift from owning vehicles to mobility as a dollar per mile service. This becomes on-demand public transport. The friction of disruption: Car manufactures and car dealerships are upended. Becoming purveyors of regionally managed fleets. Rethink the bus, rethink the train. Auto insurance is disrupted Auto servicing is disrupted Tax subsidies for infrastructure is disrupted Accidents become … product recalls Guess what - driverless tests show we get bored easily, we fiddle around with other stuff and / or fall asleep when we stop driving. So the new smart cars have to also manage your attention. “Google cars” pulled over for driving like grandma How do we use the 4 billion person hours per year reclaimed from your commute downtime? The next generation never learns to drive. The next generation never fills a tank.
- And it is not very far out there in the future. Rapid proliferation is already knocking at your door: Hybrid and electric vehicle options Alternatives to owning (think Uber, Lyft, ZipCar) Highway hands-free via Tesla Machine assisted anti-collision, parallel parking, adaptive cruise control How do we reap the benefits, mitigate the disruptions and bring social change along with? Process innovation: #1 - Pilots Sub-city level deployments, with small managed fleets. Mayors vie for “future city” pilots to showcase their smarter better city. #2 - Do The Easy First Pilots focus on lower complexity problems first: city parking, fixed route people movers, highway-hands-free, bumper-to-bumper traffic hands-free, robotic garbage pickup, alt-fuel fleets, truck convoys. #3 - Use Diversified Teams Pilot teams are broadly multidisciplinary. Sholder-to-sholder vehicle tech, analytics gurus, safety, infrastructure builders, regulatory, insurance, ethicists and most importantly the end customer as co-creators. #4 - Rapid Test Cycles Since long-range plans fail. Use many fast create-test-fix cycles. Objectives & assumptions are co-created, a minimum viable pilot is deployed for testing in the real world at small scale, data is gathered for a fixed time window, analyzed, debated and used to drive the rethink for the next cycle. Rise and repeat. Sneak up on success or fail out fast. #5 - Social Co-Creation Since cities can pass enabling regulations and emerge standards faster than state or federal organizations. Grow the grass roots regulatory frameworks up within the pilots buttressed by piloted real-world experience versus arm-chair philosophy or panic. #6 - Promote It If it works. Popularize the positive use cases. Promote, educate and openly share pilot successes. Hand-off the lessons learned to the next scale up on the adoption curve. Simple, proven, fast, inclusive.
- Same show, different channel. Healthcare. Also a double-digit percentage of our GDP in massive flux. For example, the value of improved health for chronic disease patients through remote monitoring could be as much as $1.1 trillion per year by 2025. We see shared objectives between vendors of wearable and smart home tech the healthcare drivers for quality of care, personalized med, and driving down costs. Healthcare innovations are crazy: Everything you wear and every where you are will monitor your health 24x7 Nanobots in the blood, inside-ables in your eyes and ears Hospitals and clinics become pre-fabricated, modular systems of flexible interchangeable parts Stem-cell Reconstructive and Plastic Surgery 3D-printed personalized replacement organic parts Exoskeletons - every one back up on their feet Some frictions: Healthcare is not yet consumer focused. For example, it starts as simply as having to repetitively fill in the same info over and over on multiple forms. Where else do we tolerate that. The first smart-place “aging-in-place” build-outs are not in the home but are the more premium assisted living settings - sold at very high cost. The wealthy get access to the healthcare breakthroughs first. Life expectancy increases faster at high end and lowers at the low end. Health tracking data from wearables has no place to go to bind to your medical records. The FDA medical device approval pipeline is slow and clogged and expensive
- In the adoption curve, what is crossing the chasm, and is knocking at your door? Augmented-reality robotic surgery In-home lab tests Low-cost DNA analysis by mail Mind-Controlled prosthetics Wearables every where The mitigations for social friction is exactly similar to transportation. Same process innovations. #1 - Pilots Like in transportation regional sub-city level pilots. Mayoral involvement again seeking acclaim for the “future city’s” improved quality of life. #2 - Do the easy first Experiments that move from fragmented care systems to concentrated services for particular medical conditions in the right locations. #3 - Use Diversified Teams Again, pilot teams are broadly multidisciplinary. #4 - Use Rapid Cycles Where cycles are designed to encourage discovery by creating real working solutions in the field. #5 - Social Co-Creation Imbedded regulators stress test and inform standards creation. #6 Promote Promote pilot successes or fail out quick. Light, nimble processes, built around generating and sharing data, and converging on solutions by practice.
- So we see innovation-driven change is accelerating. Many giant industry-scale disruptions are happening now, as we speak. We know the slower fabric of social systems gets stressed and pushes back. Sometimes stalling critical changes. Sometimes surfacing unanticipated vulnerabilities. Simple proven process tactics can go a long way to helping work out the kinks in how advances advance. Smaller, more tactical, cheaper, local showcased pilots, comprised expert & end-customer teams, co-create the technical and social solutions, together, for the same shared objectives. We lightly plan since we can’t predict. We converge together on annealed how-to knowledge. Small shared steps can and will smooth out the bumpy rocket-ride of progress. Thanks you very much