SlideShare una empresa de Scribd logo
1 de 24
Descargar para leer sin conexión
ADVICE for the WISE




     Newsletter –July’11
Contents



Index                        Page No.

Economic Update                   4

Equity Outlook                    8

Debt Outlook                     13
Forex                             16

Commodities                       17

Real Estate                      18




                                        2
From the Desk of the CIO…


 Dear Investor,                                                                                               This is because if the global outlook improves sharply we may
                                                                                                              see a smart rally thereby creating concerns of over-valuation
 A welcome respite in softening of commodity prices provided                                                  in the medium term. Curiously hence the global investors may
 some much-needed positive sentiment to the Indian equity                                                     choose to increase their allocation to Indian equities amidst a
 markets last month. Most benchmarks recovered quite well from                                                scenario which by domestic standards may not count as a
 their early lows and are showing definite signs of positive near                                             very positive one. Hence it is prudent to not sit on the
 term movement. With global concerns reducing on the back of                                                  sidelines in this market
 Greek Government agreeing to a tough austerity measures and
 thus tiding over the short term liquidity concerns in managing its                                           Debt markets continue to expect a further rate hike in light of
 debt, risk appetite seems to have returned amongst global                                                    the persistently high inflation. The price hike in diesel is likely
 investors. Domestic investors have also taken a cue from the                                                 to make it worse still – at least in the short term. We maintain
 mildly positive sentiment and are cautiously entering the equity                                             our negative outlook on long term debt and positive outlook
 markets.                                                                                                     on short term debt as well as short term credit.

 A recent study shows that by various measures, India is one of the                                           In the current market scenario, structured products that
 most overheated emerging markets. In concrete terms, this means                                              significantly add to the portfolio returns for a mildly bullish
 that the economy is operating at or above its productive capacity.                                           market in the medium term are likely to be quite useful. In
 In such a case it cannot grow faster unless there are capacity                                               line with our view on Indian equities, we are proposing one
 improvements through aggressive investments in infrastructure                                                such option. The idea is generate additional returns for a
 and capital formation..                                                                                      mildly positive performance of the markets while capping the
                                                                                                              upside if the markets grow aggressively. This is a valuable
 On account of these concerns, our short term outlook continues to                                            addition to one’s portfolio since the rest of the equity
 remain cautious while in the medium to long term we maintain                                                 portfolio should do well if the markets rally sharply while if
 our bullish outlook. Investors would do well to continue investing                                           they remain subdued a well-designed structured product
 in smaller amounts now.                                                                                      would boost overall returns.

“Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.23”   3
Economic Update - Snapshot of Key
                                                Markets
                                                                                                                                                               Sensex                                                                                   Nifty
                                                                                  140
                                                                                                                                                               S&P 500                                                                                  Nikkei 225
                                        As on30th   Change over   Change over     130


                                        June 2011   last month    last year       120

                                                                                  110

                    BSE Sensex            18846        1.9%           6.5%        100

                                                                                   90

   Equity           S&P Nifty              5647        1.6%           6.3%
                                                                                   80

   markets          S&P 500                           (1.8%)          28.1%
                                           1321
                    Nikkei 225             9816        1.3%           4.6%      8.80
                                                                                                                                                                                   10 yr Gsec
                                                                                8.30

                                                                                7.80

                                                                                7.30

                    10-yr G-Sec Yield     8.33%       (9 bps)        77 bps     6.80




                                                                                                                                                                                   30/Nov/10
                                                                                                            31/Jul/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                              31/May/11
                                                                                                                                                   30/Sep/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                           28/Feb/11

                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          31/Mar/11
                                                                                        30/Jun/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                             31/Jan/11




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                  30/Jun/11
                                                                                                                                31/Aug/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                 31/Dec/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                           30/Apr/11
                                                                                                                                                                    31/Oct/10
Debt Markets        Call Markets          7.75%       35 bps         350 bps
                    Fixed Deposit*        8.25%        0 bps         225 bps    23000
                                                                                22000
                                                                                21000
                                                                                20000
                                                                                19000
                                                                                18000
                    RICI Index             3941       (5.6%)          33.6%     17000
                                                                                16000
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                 Gold

 Commodity                                                                      15000
                    Gold (`/10gm)         21942       (2.5%)          16.7%
  markets
                    Crude Oil ($/bbl)      112        (4.7%)          49.1%       48.00
                                                                                  47.00
                                                                                  46.00                                                                                                                                     `/$
                                                                                  45.00
                                                                                  44.00

    Forex           Rupee/Dollar          44.72        0.7%           4.2%        43.00
                                                                                  42.00




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       31/May/11
                                                                                                                                       31/Aug/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                 31/Dec/10
                                                                                                                                                                       31/Oct/10
                                                                                                                                                                                     30/Nov/10
                                                                                                                    31/Jul/10


                                                                                                                                                        30/Sep/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                             31/Jan/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                         28/Feb/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                       31/Mar/11
                                                                                                    30/Jun/10




                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                          30/Jun/11
                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                      30/Apr/11
   markets          Yen/Dollar            80.85       (0.2%)          9.5%
* Indicates SBI one-year FD                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                                   4
Economy Update - Global


            • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in May to
              61.7, decreased further in June to 58.5. Inspite of a 0.2% increase in inflation vs.
   US         the 0.4% rise last month, the confidence was low due to continuing worries
              about the economy’s strength, high unemployment and stagnating wages.
            • The m-o-m unemployment rate remain unchanged at 9.1 per cent in June 11.

            • Euro-zone PMI fell to 53.8 in June from 55.8 in May 11. The slowing was due to
              weakened output growth, lacklustre domestic demand in many countries,
 Europe       especially the austerity –hit periphery & near stagnation of export sales.

            • Unemployment rate in the Euro zone remained unchanged in June‘11 at 9.9%.


            • The Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decline to seasonally
              adjusted at 50.7 in June down from May’s 51.3, mainly due to stagnation of new
  Japan       order levels, reflecting subdued client demand from both domestic and external
              sources.
            • Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 4.5% in June ’11 from 4.7% in May ’11

            • The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is down to 11
              month low at 50.7 in June from 51.6 in May.
 Emerging
economies   • Chinese economy is expected to slow down to grow at 9.6% in 2011. The retail
              sales increased by16.9 percent year-on-year basis in May
                                                                                                     5
Economy Outlook - Domestic

16.0%                    IIP monthly data
14.0%
                                                                                                    • The GDP growth rate for Q4 FY11 came in at 7.8% the
12.0%                                                                                                 lowest in the year while the Q1 estimates for Q1 and Q3
10.0%                                                                                                 were revised upwards to 9.3 (from 8.9) and 8.3 (from an
 8.0%                                                                                                 earlier 8.2) respectively. The economic growth for the year,
 6.0%                                                                                                 is 8.5% for 2010-’11 backed by improved farm output and
 4.0%                                                                                                 growth in the services sector.
 2.0%
 0.0%                                                                                               • The slowdown in the rate of growth in the last quarter was
    May 10 Jun 10   Jul 10   Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10   Jan 11   Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11
                                                                                                      due to poor performance of the manufacturing sector
    • Industrial output as measured by the Index of Industrial                                        which grew at 5.5% v/s the 15.2% growth last year. A
      Production (IIP) decreased to 6.3% (y-o-y) in April from                                        slowdown was also seen in the mining, trade and hotels
      an upwards revised 7.8% in March ’11. This data was                                             while services, including banking and insurance witnessed
      according to the new base year (2004/05), new                                                   growth in the last quarter.
      components and weightings. According to the old series,
      the figure for the month stands at 4.4%.                                                      • The next year growth target is 8% which we believe is
                                                                                                      achievable.
    • Manufacturing growth slowed from 18% in the same
      period last year to 4.4% in 2011. Mining also slowed
      down from 12% last year to 2.1% this year. According to
      the old series, low off-take of capital goods was noticed
      with production growth at just 2.5% in April 2011
      compared with 64.1 % in April 2010 while as per the new
                                                                                                  10.0
                                                                                                                                 GDP growth
                                                                                                   9.0
      series, capital goods registered a growth of 14.5%
                                                                                                   8.0
    • The IIP figures have been very volatile in the last year.                                    7.0
      We believe that monthly indicators and IIP in isolation                                      6.0
      may not a very efficient way of indicating long term                                         5.0
      growth. We expect the growth to eventually moderate
                                                                                                   4.0
      out though high input costs may also be a dampener for
                                                                                                         FY10 (Q1) FY10(Q2)   FY10(Q3)   FY10(Q4)   FY11(Q1)   FY11(Q2)   FY11(Q3)   FY11(Q4)
      manufacturing.
                                                                                                                                                                                                6
Economic Outlook - Domestic

            Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs                • Inflation as measured by WPI decreased
                          Bank Credit     Aggregate Deposits
                                                                 marginally and was recorded at 9.06% (y-o-y)
30.0%
                                                                 for the month of May 11 as compared to 8.66%
25.0%
                                                                 during April 11. The increase was driven by
20.0%                                                            higher manufactured goods prices. These
15.0%                                                            figures are based on the new base year and
10.0%                                                            WPI list.
5.0%
                                                               • We expect WPI inflation numbers to moderate
                                                                 out due to the expected decrease in food
                                                                 inflation (on the back of a good monsoon) and
  • Bank credit growth rose to 21.8 percent in May*              the monetary tightening stance by RBI, but
    from 21.2 percent in the month of April while                increasing fuel prices may be a cause of worry.
    Deposits grew by 16.6 percent compared to 16.7
    percent in April 2011.                                     11.0%
                                                                                                             Wholesale Price Index
                                                               10.0%
  • Growth of credit demand and tight liquidity had put
    pressure on the banks to raise their deposit rates.         9.0%
    We have seen a rate hike of 25 bps in the June policy       8.0%
    review but high inflationary pressure may lead the
                                                                7.0%
    RBI to increase rates further in the coming months.
    This increase may dampen the rate of credit growth          6.0%




                                                                                                                    Oct/10




                                                                                                                                               Jan/11
                                                                                Jun/10




                                                                                                                                                                 Mar/11
                                                                                                  Aug/10
                                                                       May/10


                                                                                         Jul/10




                                                                                                                                                                          Apr/11
                                                                                                                                                                                   May/11
                                                                                                           Sep/10


                                                                                                                             Nov/10
                                                                                                                                      Dec/10


                                                                                                                                                        Feb/11
    though.

* End of period figures                                                                                                                                                                     7
Equity Outlook


Looking back at June, the equity markets were flooded with negative news flow on account of high inflation, global turmoil & high
interest rates. We saw RBI raising interest rates by 25bps. Globally, we saw a scare due to solvency issues present in Greece. A crisis was
averted by some deft measures taken by the European and Greek authorities. The month end saw relief rally with a FII’s pumping in
5000 crores in Indian Equity. Global markets also posted the biggest weekly rally in two years driven by easing Greece turmoil. We are
positive on the long term Indian growth story and we consider any short term panic as excellent entry opportunity for equity clients.


The government has hiked fuel prices indicating its intention to take a few politically unpopular but economically sound decisions.
Global Crude oil prices have also come down and have been hovering around 110$/barrel for brent crude. While Inflation would stay at
9% plus levels for next few months, going forward we would expect some respite due to cooling off of food and energy prices. We would
expect interest rates to peak after rising another 25-50bps. An earlier than expected peaking of the inflation numbers would help RBI
reach the end of the tightening cycle earlier than expected. Monsoons are expected to be around 95% of the long term average which
would be sufficient for the Kharif crop.
The short term concerns like inflation, interest rates and high crude prices have largely been discounted by the market. The markets are
trading at a very reasonable valuation of 14 times FY12 earnings. We will have the earning season beginning soon and we expect
Q1FY12 (Y-o-Y) earnings growth to be in the range of 15%-20%. The corporate advance tax numbers have shown a growth of 22% over
last year. We expect the earnings to be led by the banking space. The earnings growth for leading private sector banks is expected to be
between 20%-25% and hence we continue to be bullish on private banks. We also expect IT and Pharma to post good numbers. The
monsoon session of Parliament, also starting in August, could see some reform measures in sectors like Insurance and retail being
announced. We expect the earnings growth and reform action to drive equity market returns in the medium to long term .

                                                                                                                                              8
Sector Outlook


       Sector     Stance                                                        Remarks
                               We believe in a large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in
                               generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the
Healthcare      Overweight     developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian
                               pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and
                               CRAMS space

                               The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. We believe Power sector to be a better play over
                               other sub sectors such as ports, roads and telecom infrastructure, because of favorable economics
E&C             Equalweight
                               under PPP model. Within power, we like the engineering companies over utilities, T&D and other
                               infrastructure owners because of their superior profitability and better competitive dynamics.

                               Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from
                               consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India
BFSI            Equalweight
                               has good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. Despite the increasing in interest rates, we believe
                               banks will be able to pass on higher cost of funds to clients as demand remains strong

                               We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the
FMCG            Equalweight
                               growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes.


                               Commodity prices have moved up significantly I last six months due to easy monetary environment.
Metals          Equal weight
                               Positive on the producers of Steel, Copper and Aluminium.

                                                                                                                                          9
Sector Outlook


      Sector        Stance                                                 Remarks

                                Robust volume growth led by some uptick in pricing makes IT an attractive investment. Market
IT/ITES           Equalweight   share gains led by deeper and wider expansion of global delivery model will drive earnings
                                growth. Best played through Tier I stocks.

                                Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth despite raw material price hikes
Automobiles       Equalweight   and raging competition. We are more bullish on commercial vehicle and agricultural vehicles
                                segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power.

                                Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. But the issue is on the supply
Cement            Underweight
                                side. We do see an oversupply situation for the next 3-4 quarters.

                                We like the growth prospects of power sector but believe that value will be created by
Power Utilities   Underweight   engineering services providers. Merchant power rates have been sliding downwards and coal
                                prices have been on the way up putting pressure on return ratios.

                                 The regulatory cap on RoE does not allow a vast value creation opportunity in the
Energy            Underweight   infrastructure owning companies. We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross
                                subsidization distorting the underlying economics of oil exploration and refinering businesses.
                                The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high
                                profitability levels in the short to medium term. The huge capex incurred in the rollout of 3G
Telecom           Underweight
                                services will put further stress on the already stretched balance sheets. Remain cautious on
                                Sector’s prospects.
                                                                                                                                  10
DELTA Portfolio


•   DELTA seeks to invest in a portfolio of mutual funds through a PMS route that aims to would provide higher returns than the
    blended benchmark.

•   The asset allocation between Debt and Equity would be done on the basis of the risk profile of the investor (conservative,
    moderate or aggressive)

•   There is further allocation into sub-asset classes depending on our views on the same

•   The portfolio would be reviewed and rebalanced regularly to maintain the asset allocation and the right selection of funds



Asset Allocation for DELTA:




               Asset Class            DELTA Conservative           DELTA Moderate              DELTA Aggressive

                  Equity                       50%                         75%                        100%

                  Debt                         50%                         25%                          0%




                                                                                                                                  11
Portfolio Performance*



                                                                                                     1 Year                    Since Inception (29/4/09)
                 Portfolios                            3 Months (Absolute)
                                                                                                   (Absolute)                            CAGR

               Conservative                                     0.42%                                 3.78%                                22.03%
     Market Return Benchmark**                                 (0.79%)                                3.75%                                17.01%
                Moderate                                       (0.10%)                                2.87%                                28.20%
     Market Return Benchmark**                                 (1.65%)                                3.82%                                23.06%
                Aggressive                                     (0.31%)                                4.15%                                35.45%
     Market Return Benchmark**                                 (2.62%)                                2.99%                                28.06%

      Absolute Return Benchmark                                 1.50%                                 6.00%                                8.00%




                           Asset Class                                                                       Benchmarks

              Market Return Benchmark: Equity                                                                   BSE 200

              Market Return Benchmark: Debt                                                           Blended Bond Fund Index

                 Absolute Return Benchmark                                                          SBI 1 year Fixed deposit rate

*(Returns as on 30th June 2011)
The performance specified is post expenses.The performance indicated here is based on in-house testing of the portfolio. The portfolio has been offered on the
PMS platform since 23rd November 2010
**The Market Return Benchmark is based on BSE 200 and Blended Bond Fund index, taken in the same proportion as the asset allocation of that variant
                                                                                                                                                                 12
Debt Outlook


      8.90              Yield curve
      8.80
      8.70                                                  • The benchmark 10 yr G-sec yield decreased from
      8.60
                                                              8.41% in the month of May ‘11 to close at
      8.50
      8.40                                                    around 8.33% in June‘11.
      8.30
      8.20                                                  • With no respite from the high inflation in spite
      8.10
      8.00                                                    of monetary tightening, we may see a few more
      7.90                                                    interest rate hikes in the year.
(%)


              0.02
              0.98
              1.94
              2.90
              3.85
              4.81
              5.77
              6.73
              7.69
              8.65
              9.61
             10.57
             11.53
             12.48
             13.44
             14.40
             15.36
             16.32
             17.28
             18.24
             19.20
      • In the last month, we saw tight liquidity in the    8.60
        beginning of the month on account of the            8.40
                                                                                10-yr G-sec yield
        advance tax outflows but in the second half, as     8.20
        the money supply increased, a decline was seen
                                                            8.00
        in the shorter term yields.
                                                            7.80

                                                            7.60
      • We expect yields across the yield curve to remain
                                                            7.40
        at elevated levels. High inflation, monetary
                                                            7.20
        tightening and rising credit growth will keep the
        yields at the longer end range bound.

                                                                                                                 13
Debt Strategy


   Category    Outlook                                  Details
                             We recommend short term bond funds with a 6-12 month
                             investment horizon as we expect them to deliver superior
Short Tenure                 returns due to high YTM. We have seen the short term yields
   Debt                      harden due to reduced liquidity due to expected advance tax
                             outflows and consecutive rate hikes prompted by inflationary
                             pressures. Hence, Short term bond funds and FMPs provide
                             an interesting investment option.


                            Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at
                            the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed
   Credit                   Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also
                            contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at
                            current levels attractive.



                            With tight liquidity and inflationary pressure being high, we
                            expect more rate hikes in the current year. As the inflationary
 Long Tenure                pressure begins to settle down, these may be attractive
    Debt                    investments but currently, we would recommend staying out of
                            the longer term investments.


                                                                                              14
Pegasus I


 Objective:                                                     Payoff Scenario:
  To generate superior payoff with a coupon of 13% amid         The structures pays a contingent coupon of 13% along with 100%
 participation in the market on the upside.                     participation on the reference index, subject to a knockout event at
                                                                120% of the initial level.
  To generate absolute positive return even if the return on
 reference index is negative (up to ~10%) amid principal         In the event of a knockout event happening, the structures pays a
 protecting below contingent level.                             coupon of 13%.

 Nifty Hybrid          Product Specifications                   Payoff                                    At Maturity
Issuer                 Karvy Financial Services Limited         If Final Level >= Knockout Level          Principal * (1 + Coupon )
                                                                If Initial Level < Final Level <          Principal * (1 + Coupon +
Instrument             Secured Redeemable Non-Convertible       Knockout Level                            PR * {Final Level /Initial Level – 1})
                       Debenture
                                                                If Initial Level > Final Level >=         Principal * (1 + Coupon )
Reference Index        S&P CNX Nifty Index
                                                                Contingent Level
Tenor                  14 / 15 Months                           If Final Level < Contingent               Principal
                                                                Level
Initial Level          Reference Index as on Trade Date
                                                                 40%
Final Level            Reference Index as on Trade Date +                               Nifty Return                  Structure Payoff
                                                                 30%
                       14M
                                                                 20%
Knockout Level         120% of Initial Level
                                                                 10%
Contingent Level       90% of Initial Level
                                                                  0%
Coupon                 13%                                              -25%         -15%           -5%           5%            15%           25%
                                                                -10%
Participation Rate     100%
                                                                -20%
                                                                                    Note: Graph not to scale and pricing is indicative only
Principal Protection   100%                                     -30%
                                                                                                                                                    15
Forex


   Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M)                          Trade balance and export-import data
                                                                       80                                                                                                0
3.0%                                                                   60                  Export             Import              Trade Balance (mn $)
                                                                                                                                                                         -5000
                                                                       40                                                                                                -10000
2.5%                                                                   20
                                                                        0                                                                                                -15000
                                                                      -20                                                                                                -20000
2.0%

1.5%

1.0%
                                                                     • Exports for the month of May increased by 56.9% (y-o-y)
0.5%
                                                                       while imports increased by 54.1% over last year. The trade
0.0%                                                                   deficit increased to USD 14.9 bn.
           USD            GBP           EURO            YEN
-0.5%                                                                140000
                                                                                                                                       Capital Account Balance
-1.0%
                                                                     90000


  • The Rupee appreciated against USD & GBP and depreciated
                                                                     40000
    against the Euro & Yen.
                                                                     -10000
  • Appreciation was witnessed due to FII inflows on account of               FY 10 (Q1)   FY 10 (Q2)   FY 10 (Q3)   FY 10 (Q4)   FY 11 (Q1)   FY 11 (Q2)   FY 11 (Q3)   FY 11 (Q4)

    rise in domestic markets coupled with decline in country’s
    food inflation. Appreciation against USD was also due to        • Capital account balance was positive throughout FY11 and
    overall weakness seen in dollar against other currencies.         stands at `273133 Cr. for the fiscal while it was 37,298 Cr.
                                                                      for Q4.
  • The GBP also depreciated against the Euro as the                • We expect the capital account balance to remain positive
    policymakers decided to keep the interest rates at record low     as higher interest rates would make investment in the
    for the month while the Euro appreciated after the Greek          Indian markets attractive hence drawing investments into
    Parliament approved the Austerity Bill.                           the market.
                                                                                                                                                                                      16
Commodities


                                                                                23000

            Gold prices tumbled as Greece progressed in staving off a           22000
                                                                                                          Gold
                                                                                21000
            default amid US ending QE2, softening the prices of the             20000
            commodities. This fall has deteriorated the technical strength      19000

            that Gold has been exhibiting for a while. Further, ECB is likely   18000
Precious                                                                        17000
            to hike the benchmark interest rate by 25bps as the Greek risk      16000
 Metals     of default has subsided; which will further put pressure on the     15000

            yellow metal. On the flip side, the renewed strength in the
            dollar will keep a lid on the gold prices for some time to come.
            We expect precious metal to stay subdued in the days to come.
            .



                                                                                130.0
                                                                                                                   Crude
                                                                                120.0
            Oil prices witnessed a downtrend following a surprise               110.0
            inventory release by the IEA. Nevertheless oil prices are well      100.0

            supported on the lower side. Given the economic situation            90.0

Oil & Gas   amid recent strong equity performance along with the implied         80.0

            summer demand (in the US), oil prices are likely to rule firmer      70.0

                                                                                 60.0
            and the trend is positive.
                                                                                        Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
                                                                                         10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11
Real Estate Outlook - I


Asset Classes                        Tier-1*                                                 Tier-II**
                Sales are under pressure as usual, Q2 & Q3 of 2011    The demand is keeping the Tier II cities afloat, the
                would clear clouds on possible correction in this     infrastructure development in these cities have
                sector. Lot of developers launching new projects      made the residential development spread across the
                since the existing ones have hit roadblocks due to    city limits. On an average price is still affordable. Key
                high prices. The loading on actual usable area has    development developer are seeing demand of 3BHK
                seen a sharp rise in Mumbai, Bangalore & Pune,        and luxury development but are only doing well if
                from an average 20% to 35%, this is another way to    the project size is limited to 100-150 units. The
 Residential
                hedge the realty prices. Investors seem to be         trend seems to be favorable since there is lot of
                interested in under development, pre-launched         demand comes from smaller cities closer to these
                projects which clearly give them appreciation         Tier-II & III cities
                without any possible speculation. RBI credit rate
                increase with tightening of construction finance to
                developer is only increasing pressure on
                developers.
                Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious      Commercial segment not that significant, but unlike
                expansion approach by corporate, this segment         Tier-I the price differentiation is double favoring
                has gone through correction. Rates per sqft have      commercial since most of them are in CBD areas.
                seen almost 30% down-trend and will be stagnant
Commercial/IT   for the coming 2-3 quarters. Surely, the segment is
                at the down-tip of the cycle, and is the best
                opportunity for companies looking for long term
                holding of real estate office space.

                                                                                                                                  18
Real Estate Outlook - II




Asset Classes                         Tier-1*                                                Tier-II**


                The FDI allowance is given lot of impetus to this      Retail is slow in these markets; unorganized markets
                sector, its been now almost 3 years since retail has   are still a hot choice. Most high-street locations are
                seen a major transformation on all its business        expensive to own thus have a high lease rental and
                aspects and have been built to suit Indian way for     have witnesses heavy churn. Investment would
                consumerism. Low cost, high reach, heavy variety,      always have capital protected due to dearth of
                less innovation, existence with competition,           available space.
   Retail       maximizing bottom line than top-line approach
                have been making the retailers smarter. Revenue
                share model with a built in MG is how the deals
                are done



                Most interesting times, traded now more as Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit
                commodity, very fastly getting absorbed, locked. since the trend of standalone homes are prevalent.
                Non-real estate sector see immense opportunity
    Land        since it can be used as tangible and most credible
                pledge against business




                                                                                                                                19
International Investing: Superfund


Introduction                                                        Product Features
• Superfund is a group of investment companies with reach           • Superfund A2 is available in Dollar, Euro and Gold
  across 20 countries – predominantly in Europe, followed by US       denominations. The minimum ticket size is $5,000 or €5,000.
  and Asia. It was founded in 1996.                                   The investment can be made from Indian money taken abroad
• Superfund group manages a number of funds – all of which use        in line with the RBI limit of $200,000 per person per year.
  exclusively futures contracts in commodities, currencies, stock     Alternately, it can be made from funds available with the
  indices and bonds across several global exchanges. Hence the        investor in a foreign bank account.
  product belongs to the asset class of “Managed Futures”.          Fund manager/strategy
• It can be thought of as an alternative investment avenue with     • Superfund does not employ human fund managers. Its
  focus on absolute returns – in a manner similar to hedge            investment strategy is that of trend following. It focuses on
  funds, but with greater regulatory oversight and restriction to     spotting definitive trends in the markets and entering/exiting
  trading in only highly liquid futures. The investment strategy      the markets on the basis of pre-determined rules. It is
  used by Superfund Funds is algorithmic trading focused on           illustrated in the graph below.
  trend following.                                                  Performance

                                                                                                2011 (YTD)       2010           2009
                                                                     Superfund Green Gold
                                                                     A SPC                         2.3%         38.86%      -17.11%
                                                                     Barclays CTA Index           (1.23%)        5.47%       -0.10%

                                                                                                                                       20
AEGON Religare Rising Star



AEGON Religare Rising Star is unit linked child plan. It helps to build a corpus for child. The parent is life assured and in case
of parent’s death during this tenure all future premiums would be waived off. The company would continue to fund all future
basic premiums to policy fund value when due. Additionally, amount equal to annualised premium would be payable to child
at start of each policy year till maturity. On maturity fund value would also be payable to child.

Some of the key features of the plan are :

•Plan can be bought by parent in the age group of 18-60 years for child aged between 0-15 years .

•Policy term is 25- current age of the child and premium paying term is equal to policy term.

•Inbuilt income benefit option in case of prospers / parent’s death. This option pays amount equal to annualised premium to
beneficiary (child) till maturity of the plan from the date of death of parent without paying any additional premium.

•Low charging structure make it highly competitive when compared to its peers.

•Option to have upto 300% of the minimum basic sum assured as coverage amount providing enhanced protection.

•Option to select Invest Protect Option, in this option it is possible to gain from investment in equity market and also
minimizes the risk to returns as policy nears maturity. In this option money is systematically shifted from Accelerator Fund to
Secure Fund during the last 3 policy years.

•Auto-rebalancing - At the end of every policy year, this feature automatically rebalances the allocation of investments in
various funds to the allocation proportions chosen by investor.



                                                                                                                                     21
Why Karvy Private Wealth?


                      Leveraging breadth of related businesses that KARVY is in
KARVY is an integrated financial services group, with Karvy Private Wealth being one of its arms. The entire
group’s strengths are leveraged to provide end-to-end wealth advice to Karvy Private Wealth clients. For
example, SME clients can receive advice on their personal wealth while also getting investment banking advice
from the I-banking arm of Karvy.

                                Maximum choice of products & services

KARVY Private Wealth offers the widest breadth of products and services, providing clients a variety of options
through a single contact. Products and services include equities, debt instruments, commodities, Mutual Funds,
Insurance, Structured Products, Financial Planning, real estate advice, etc.

                                          Product-neutral advice

We ensure that our recommendations are 100% product-neutral and unbiased because unlike other players,
we are neither tied up with any one particular insurance company nor do we have our own mutual funds.

                                            All-India presence
Set to have business in 20 - 25 cities we are poised to cater to families and businesses spread across multiple
cities in India providing them with combined and integrated advice. For one-off services, if required, we can
also leverage KARVY Group’s presence in 400 cities.
                                                                                                                  22
Disclaimer


The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The
information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch
for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss
incurred based upon it.

The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own
investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice,
as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that
neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of
this information and views mentioned here.

The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned
companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual
stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment
recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has
either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only
through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd.

The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are
advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect
significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence
of tax on investments




                                                                                                                                   23
Contact Us


                                  Bangalore               080-26606126
                                  Chennai                 044-45925923
                                  Delhi                   011-43533941
                                  Goa                     0832-2731822
                                  Gurgaon                0124-4780222
                                  Hyderabad              040-44507282
                                  Kolkata                 033-40515100
                                  Mumbai                  022-33055000
                                  Noida                   0120-4255337
                                  Pune                    020-30116238

     Email: wealth@karvy.com            SMS: ‘HNI’ to 56767         Website: www.karvywealth.com


Corporate Office : 702, Hallmark Business Plaza, Off Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051
                                                                                                             24

Más contenido relacionado

La actualidad más candente

Keynote technicals daily report for 150612
Keynote technicals   daily report for 150612Keynote technicals   daily report for 150612
Keynote technicals daily report for 150612Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 150312
Keynote technicals   daily report for 150312Keynote technicals   daily report for 150312
Keynote technicals daily report for 150312Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 150113
Keynote technicals daily report for 150113Keynote technicals daily report for 150113
Keynote technicals daily report for 150113Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 140312
Keynote technicals   daily report for 140312Keynote technicals   daily report for 140312
Keynote technicals daily report for 140312Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 240112
Keynote technicals   daily report for 240112Keynote technicals   daily report for 240112
Keynote technicals daily report for 240112Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Advice For The Wise - October'2011
Advice For The Wise - October'2011Advice For The Wise - October'2011
Advice For The Wise - October'2011Karvy Private Wealth
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 310112
Keynote technicals   daily report for 310112Keynote technicals   daily report for 310112
Keynote technicals daily report for 310112Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report 11th july 2011
Keynote technicals   daily report 11th july 2011Keynote technicals   daily report 11th july 2011
Keynote technicals daily report 11th july 2011Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report 190711
Keynote technicals   daily report 190711Keynote technicals   daily report 190711
Keynote technicals daily report 190711Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report 140711
Keynote technicals   daily report 140711Keynote technicals   daily report 140711
Keynote technicals daily report 140711Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 070212
Keynote technicals   daily report for 070212Keynote technicals   daily report for 070212
Keynote technicals daily report for 070212Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 180612
Keynote technicals   daily report for 180612Keynote technicals   daily report for 180612
Keynote technicals daily report for 180612Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report 250711
Keynote technicals   daily report 250711Keynote technicals   daily report 250711
Keynote technicals daily report 250711Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report 180711
Keynote technicals   daily report 180711Keynote technicals   daily report 180711
Keynote technicals daily report 180711Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 150212
Keynote technicals   daily report for 150212Keynote technicals   daily report for 150212
Keynote technicals daily report for 150212Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Market Wrap Up: 16th February, 2011
Market Wrap Up: 16th February, 2011Market Wrap Up: 16th February, 2011
Market Wrap Up: 16th February, 2011Fullerton Securities
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 071212
Keynote technicals daily report for 071212Keynote technicals daily report for 071212
Keynote technicals daily report for 071212Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 230112
Keynote technicals   daily report for 230112Keynote technicals   daily report for 230112
Keynote technicals daily report for 230112Keynote Capitals Ltd.
 

La actualidad más candente (20)

Advice For The Wise May'11
Advice For The Wise May'11Advice For The Wise May'11
Advice For The Wise May'11
 
Advice for the Wise - August 10
Advice for the Wise - August 10Advice for the Wise - August 10
Advice for the Wise - August 10
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 150612
Keynote technicals   daily report for 150612Keynote technicals   daily report for 150612
Keynote technicals daily report for 150612
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 150312
Keynote technicals   daily report for 150312Keynote technicals   daily report for 150312
Keynote technicals daily report for 150312
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 150113
Keynote technicals daily report for 150113Keynote technicals daily report for 150113
Keynote technicals daily report for 150113
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 140312
Keynote technicals   daily report for 140312Keynote technicals   daily report for 140312
Keynote technicals daily report for 140312
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 240112
Keynote technicals   daily report for 240112Keynote technicals   daily report for 240112
Keynote technicals daily report for 240112
 
Advice For The Wise - October'2011
Advice For The Wise - October'2011Advice For The Wise - October'2011
Advice For The Wise - October'2011
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 310112
Keynote technicals   daily report for 310112Keynote technicals   daily report for 310112
Keynote technicals daily report for 310112
 
Keynote technicals daily report 11th july 2011
Keynote technicals   daily report 11th july 2011Keynote technicals   daily report 11th july 2011
Keynote technicals daily report 11th july 2011
 
Keynote technicals daily report 190711
Keynote technicals   daily report 190711Keynote technicals   daily report 190711
Keynote technicals daily report 190711
 
Keynote technicals daily report 140711
Keynote technicals   daily report 140711Keynote technicals   daily report 140711
Keynote technicals daily report 140711
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 070212
Keynote technicals   daily report for 070212Keynote technicals   daily report for 070212
Keynote technicals daily report for 070212
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 180612
Keynote technicals   daily report for 180612Keynote technicals   daily report for 180612
Keynote technicals daily report for 180612
 
Keynote technicals daily report 250711
Keynote technicals   daily report 250711Keynote technicals   daily report 250711
Keynote technicals daily report 250711
 
Keynote technicals daily report 180711
Keynote technicals   daily report 180711Keynote technicals   daily report 180711
Keynote technicals daily report 180711
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 150212
Keynote technicals   daily report for 150212Keynote technicals   daily report for 150212
Keynote technicals daily report for 150212
 
Market Wrap Up: 16th February, 2011
Market Wrap Up: 16th February, 2011Market Wrap Up: 16th February, 2011
Market Wrap Up: 16th February, 2011
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 071212
Keynote technicals daily report for 071212Keynote technicals daily report for 071212
Keynote technicals daily report for 071212
 
Keynote technicals daily report for 230112
Keynote technicals   daily report for 230112Keynote technicals   daily report for 230112
Keynote technicals daily report for 230112
 

Destacado

The Hands of Poker
The Hands of PokerThe Hands of Poker
The Hands of PokerSarang Ahuja
 
OneKyss: A Factual Overview
OneKyss: A Factual OverviewOneKyss: A Factual Overview
OneKyss: A Factual OverviewEric Johnson
 
Cpl Cox by Eric J Cox
Cpl Cox by Eric J CoxCpl Cox by Eric J Cox
Cpl Cox by Eric J CoxEric Johnson
 
Using digital media and online communication tools to engage landowners
Using digital media and online communication tools to engage landownersUsing digital media and online communication tools to engage landowners
Using digital media and online communication tools to engage landownersEli Sagor
 
Inter Continental Hotel, Ningbo, China
Inter Continental Hotel, Ningbo, ChinaInter Continental Hotel, Ningbo, China
Inter Continental Hotel, Ningbo, ChinaWalter Bone, RLA ASLA
 
BitByte Обзор платформы InfoboxCloud
BitByte Обзор платформы InfoboxCloudBitByte Обзор платформы InfoboxCloud
BitByte Обзор платформы InfoboxCloudYuri Trukhin
 
Charlotte Real Estate - A Factual Overview in a Time of Uncertainty
Charlotte Real Estate - A Factual Overview in a Time of UncertaintyCharlotte Real Estate - A Factual Overview in a Time of Uncertainty
Charlotte Real Estate - A Factual Overview in a Time of UncertaintyEric Johnson
 
Education passion learning and success
Education passion learning and successEducation passion learning and success
Education passion learning and successMights Rasing
 
Carta Decano BIT 192 marzo 2013
Carta Decano BIT 192 marzo 2013Carta Decano BIT 192 marzo 2013
Carta Decano BIT 192 marzo 2013Eugenio Fontán
 
Sizing Pipe And Valves
Sizing Pipe And ValvesSizing Pipe And Valves
Sizing Pipe And Valvessherylwil
 

Destacado (17)

The Hands of Poker
The Hands of PokerThe Hands of Poker
The Hands of Poker
 
OneKyss: A Factual Overview
OneKyss: A Factual OverviewOneKyss: A Factual Overview
OneKyss: A Factual Overview
 
Cpl Cox by Eric J Cox
Cpl Cox by Eric J CoxCpl Cox by Eric J Cox
Cpl Cox by Eric J Cox
 
Using digital media and online communication tools to engage landowners
Using digital media and online communication tools to engage landownersUsing digital media and online communication tools to engage landowners
Using digital media and online communication tools to engage landowners
 
Local search
Local searchLocal search
Local search
 
Inter Continental Hotel, Ningbo, China
Inter Continental Hotel, Ningbo, ChinaInter Continental Hotel, Ningbo, China
Inter Continental Hotel, Ningbo, China
 
Cpl Cox Intro
Cpl Cox IntroCpl Cox Intro
Cpl Cox Intro
 
BitByte Обзор платформы InfoboxCloud
BitByte Обзор платформы InfoboxCloudBitByte Обзор платформы InfoboxCloud
BitByte Обзор платформы InfoboxCloud
 
S040215s Esto es guerra de Estado.
S040215s Esto es guerra de Estado.S040215s Esto es guerra de Estado.
S040215s Esto es guerra de Estado.
 
Charlotte Real Estate - A Factual Overview in a Time of Uncertainty
Charlotte Real Estate - A Factual Overview in a Time of UncertaintyCharlotte Real Estate - A Factual Overview in a Time of Uncertainty
Charlotte Real Estate - A Factual Overview in a Time of Uncertainty
 
Cpl Cox Press Kit
Cpl Cox Press KitCpl Cox Press Kit
Cpl Cox Press Kit
 
Education passion learning and success
Education passion learning and successEducation passion learning and success
Education passion learning and success
 
Cox Residential
Cox ResidentialCox Residential
Cox Residential
 
Carta Decano BIT 192 marzo 2013
Carta Decano BIT 192 marzo 2013Carta Decano BIT 192 marzo 2013
Carta Decano BIT 192 marzo 2013
 
Comité Técnico para la Zona Tropical, agosto 26 al 30 de 2013: Análisis del P...
Comité Técnico para la Zona Tropical, agosto 26 al 30 de 2013: Análisis del P...Comité Técnico para la Zona Tropical, agosto 26 al 30 de 2013: Análisis del P...
Comité Técnico para la Zona Tropical, agosto 26 al 30 de 2013: Análisis del P...
 
Cox Residential
Cox ResidentialCox Residential
Cox Residential
 
Sizing Pipe And Valves
Sizing Pipe And ValvesSizing Pipe And Valves
Sizing Pipe And Valves
 

Similar a Wise advice for equity and debt outlook

Advice for the Wise - February 2012
Advice for the Wise - February 2012Advice for the Wise - February 2012
Advice for the Wise - February 2012Karvy Private Wealth
 
Advice for the Wise - February 2013
Advice for the Wise - February 2013Advice for the Wise - February 2013
Advice for the Wise - February 2013Karvy Private Wealth
 
Advice for the wise september 2012
Advice for the wise september 2012Advice for the wise september 2012
Advice for the wise september 2012Karvy Private Wealth
 
Karvy Private Wealth - Advice for the Wise (October 2010)
Karvy Private Wealth - Advice for the Wise (October 2010)Karvy Private Wealth - Advice for the Wise (October 2010)
Karvy Private Wealth - Advice for the Wise (October 2010)Karvy Private Wealth
 
What To Invest In
What To Invest InWhat To Invest In
What To Invest Infootball11
 
Juicing The Return
Juicing The ReturnJuicing The Return
Juicing The ReturnBoyboy cute
 
Room To Run, But Value Vanishes
Room To Run, But Value VanishesRoom To Run, But Value Vanishes
Room To Run, But Value VanishesBoyboy cute
 
Net assets value of mutual fund
Net assets value of mutual fundNet assets value of mutual fund
Net assets value of mutual fundYashika Vashistha
 

Similar a Wise advice for equity and debt outlook (20)

Advice for the Wise April 2012
Advice for the Wise April 2012Advice for the Wise April 2012
Advice for the Wise April 2012
 
Advice for the Wise - February 2012
Advice for the Wise - February 2012Advice for the Wise - February 2012
Advice for the Wise - February 2012
 
Advice for the_wise-may_2012
Advice for the_wise-may_2012Advice for the_wise-may_2012
Advice for the_wise-may_2012
 
Advice for the Wise - February 2013
Advice for the Wise - February 2013Advice for the Wise - February 2013
Advice for the Wise - February 2013
 
Advice for the wise June 2012
Advice for the wise June 2012Advice for the wise June 2012
Advice for the wise June 2012
 
Advice for the wise december'10
Advice for the wise   december'10Advice for the wise   december'10
Advice for the wise december'10
 
Advice for the wise september 2012
Advice for the wise september 2012Advice for the wise september 2012
Advice for the wise september 2012
 
Advice For The Wise - August'2011
Advice For The Wise - August'2011Advice For The Wise - August'2011
Advice For The Wise - August'2011
 
Karvy Private Wealth - Advice for the Wise (October 2010)
Karvy Private Wealth - Advice for the Wise (October 2010)Karvy Private Wealth - Advice for the Wise (October 2010)
Karvy Private Wealth - Advice for the Wise (October 2010)
 
Advice for the wise oct 10
Advice for the wise oct 10Advice for the wise oct 10
Advice for the wise oct 10
 
Advice For The Wise November 2012
Advice For The Wise  November 2012Advice For The Wise  November 2012
Advice For The Wise November 2012
 
Advice for the wise january 2012
Advice for the wise   january 2012Advice for the wise   january 2012
Advice for the wise january 2012
 
Advice for the wise October 2012
Advice for the wise October 2012Advice for the wise October 2012
Advice for the wise October 2012
 
What To Invest In
What To Invest InWhat To Invest In
What To Invest In
 
Advice for the Wise February '11
Advice for the Wise February '11Advice for the Wise February '11
Advice for the Wise February '11
 
Juicing The Return
Juicing The ReturnJuicing The Return
Juicing The Return
 
Room To Run, But Value Vanishes
Room To Run, But Value VanishesRoom To Run, But Value Vanishes
Room To Run, But Value Vanishes
 
Advice For The Wise - March 2012
Advice For The Wise - March 2012Advice For The Wise - March 2012
Advice For The Wise - March 2012
 
Advise for the Wise
Advise for the WiseAdvise for the Wise
Advise for the Wise
 
Net assets value of mutual fund
Net assets value of mutual fundNet assets value of mutual fund
Net assets value of mutual fund
 

Más de Karvy Private Wealth

The world this week 15th june From Karvy Wealth
The world this week 15th june From Karvy WealthThe world this week 15th june From Karvy Wealth
The world this week 15th june From Karvy WealthKarvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016
The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016
The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week November 7 - November 11 - 2016
The World This Week November 7 - November 11 - 2016The World This Week November 7 - November 11 - 2016
The World This Week November 7 - November 11 - 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week October 31 - November 4 - 2016
The World This Week October 31 - November 4 - 2016The World This Week October 31 - November 4 - 2016
The World This Week October 31 - November 4 - 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week October 24 - October 28 - 2016
The World This Week October 24 - October 28  - 2016The World This Week October 24 - October 28  - 2016
The World This Week October 24 - October 28 - 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week October 17 - October21 2016
The World This Week October 17 - October21 2016The World This Week October 17 - October21 2016
The World This Week October 17 - October21 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The world this week October 10 - October 14 - 2016
The world this week October  10 - October 14  - 2016The world this week October  10 - October 14  - 2016
The world this week October 10 - October 14 - 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week October 3 - October 7 - 2016
The World This Week October 3 - October 7  - 2016The World This Week October 3 - October 7  - 2016
The World This Week October 3 - October 7 - 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week - 5th to 9th Sept, 2016
The World This Week - 5th to 9th Sept, 2016The World This Week - 5th to 9th Sept, 2016
The World This Week - 5th to 9th Sept, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week - 29th Aug to 2nd Sept, 2016
The World This Week - 29th Aug to 2nd Sept, 2016The World This Week - 29th Aug to 2nd Sept, 2016
The World This Week - 29th Aug to 2nd Sept, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
Advice for the Wise - September 2016
Advice for the Wise - September 2016Advice for the Wise - September 2016
Advice for the Wise - September 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week - 22nd to 26th Aug, 2016
The World This Week - 22nd to 26th Aug, 2016The World This Week - 22nd to 26th Aug, 2016
The World This Week - 22nd to 26th Aug, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week - 16th to 19th August, 2016
The World This Week - 16th to 19th August, 2016The World This Week - 16th to 19th August, 2016
The World This Week - 16th to 19th August, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 
The World This Week - 8th to 12th August, 2016
The World This Week - 8th to 12th August, 2016The World This Week - 8th to 12th August, 2016
The World This Week - 8th to 12th August, 2016Karvy Private Wealth
 

Más de Karvy Private Wealth (20)

The world this week 8th june
The world this week 8th juneThe world this week 8th june
The world this week 8th june
 
The world this week 1st june
The world this week 1st juneThe world this week 1st june
The world this week 1st june
 
The world this week 15th june From Karvy Wealth
The world this week 15th june From Karvy WealthThe world this week 15th june From Karvy Wealth
The world this week 15th june From Karvy Wealth
 
Advice for the Wise November 2016
Advice for the Wise   November 2016Advice for the Wise   November 2016
Advice for the Wise November 2016
 
Advice for the Wise October 2016
Advice for the Wise   October 2016Advice for the Wise   October 2016
Advice for the Wise October 2016
 
The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016
The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016
The World This Week November 14 - November 18 2016
 
The World This Week November 7 - November 11 - 2016
The World This Week November 7 - November 11 - 2016The World This Week November 7 - November 11 - 2016
The World This Week November 7 - November 11 - 2016
 
The World This Week October 31 - November 4 - 2016
The World This Week October 31 - November 4 - 2016The World This Week October 31 - November 4 - 2016
The World This Week October 31 - November 4 - 2016
 
The World This Week October 24 - October 28 - 2016
The World This Week October 24 - October 28  - 2016The World This Week October 24 - October 28  - 2016
The World This Week October 24 - October 28 - 2016
 
The World This Week October 17 - October21 2016
The World This Week October 17 - October21 2016The World This Week October 17 - October21 2016
The World This Week October 17 - October21 2016
 
The world this week October 10 - October 14 - 2016
The world this week October  10 - October 14  - 2016The world this week October  10 - October 14  - 2016
The world this week October 10 - October 14 - 2016
 
The World This Week October 3 - October 7 - 2016
The World This Week October 3 - October 7  - 2016The World This Week October 3 - October 7  - 2016
The World This Week October 3 - October 7 - 2016
 
The World This Week - 5th to 9th Sept, 2016
The World This Week - 5th to 9th Sept, 2016The World This Week - 5th to 9th Sept, 2016
The World This Week - 5th to 9th Sept, 2016
 
The World This Week - 29th Aug to 2nd Sept, 2016
The World This Week - 29th Aug to 2nd Sept, 2016The World This Week - 29th Aug to 2nd Sept, 2016
The World This Week - 29th Aug to 2nd Sept, 2016
 
Advice for the Wise - September 2016
Advice for the Wise - September 2016Advice for the Wise - September 2016
Advice for the Wise - September 2016
 
GST Bill - Infographic
GST Bill - InfographicGST Bill - Infographic
GST Bill - Infographic
 
The World This Week - 22nd to 26th Aug, 2016
The World This Week - 22nd to 26th Aug, 2016The World This Week - 22nd to 26th Aug, 2016
The World This Week - 22nd to 26th Aug, 2016
 
The World This Week - 16th to 19th August, 2016
The World This Week - 16th to 19th August, 2016The World This Week - 16th to 19th August, 2016
The World This Week - 16th to 19th August, 2016
 
The World This Week - 8th to 12th August, 2016
The World This Week - 8th to 12th August, 2016The World This Week - 8th to 12th August, 2016
The World This Week - 8th to 12th August, 2016
 
GST Bill - Infographic
GST Bill - InfographicGST Bill - Infographic
GST Bill - Infographic
 

Último

Call Now ≽ 9953056974 ≼🔝 Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai ≼🔝 Delhi door step delevry≼🔝
Call Now ≽ 9953056974 ≼🔝 Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai ≼🔝 Delhi door step delevry≼🔝Call Now ≽ 9953056974 ≼🔝 Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai ≼🔝 Delhi door step delevry≼🔝
Call Now ≽ 9953056974 ≼🔝 Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai ≼🔝 Delhi door step delevry≼🔝9953056974 Low Rate Call Girls In Saket, Delhi NCR
 
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Chakan ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Serv...
Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Chakan ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Serv...Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Chakan ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Serv...
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Chakan ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Serv...Call Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
Escorts Service Arekere ☎ 7737669865☎ Book Your One night Stand (Bangalore)
Escorts Service Arekere ☎ 7737669865☎ Book Your One night Stand (Bangalore)Escorts Service Arekere ☎ 7737669865☎ Book Your One night Stand (Bangalore)
Escorts Service Arekere ☎ 7737669865☎ Book Your One night Stand (Bangalore)amitlee9823
 
VVIP Pune Call Girls Karve Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comple...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Karve Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comple...VVIP Pune Call Girls Karve Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comple...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Karve Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comple...Call Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
VVIP Pune Call Girls Kalyani Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comp...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Kalyani Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comp...VVIP Pune Call Girls Kalyani Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comp...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Kalyani Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comp...Call Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
Call Girls in Nagpur Sakshi Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls in Nagpur Sakshi Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsCall Girls in Nagpur Sakshi Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls in Nagpur Sakshi Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsCall Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
9892124323, Call Girl in Juhu Call Girls Services (Rate ₹8.5K) 24×7 with Hote...
9892124323, Call Girl in Juhu Call Girls Services (Rate ₹8.5K) 24×7 with Hote...9892124323, Call Girl in Juhu Call Girls Services (Rate ₹8.5K) 24×7 with Hote...
9892124323, Call Girl in Juhu Call Girls Services (Rate ₹8.5K) 24×7 with Hote...Pooja Nehwal
 
VIP Call Girls Dharwad 7001035870 Whatsapp Number, 24/07 Booking
VIP Call Girls Dharwad 7001035870 Whatsapp Number, 24/07 BookingVIP Call Girls Dharwad 7001035870 Whatsapp Number, 24/07 Booking
VIP Call Girls Dharwad 7001035870 Whatsapp Number, 24/07 Bookingdharasingh5698
 
9892124323 Pooja Nehwal Call Girls Services Call Girls service in Santacruz A...
9892124323 Pooja Nehwal Call Girls Services Call Girls service in Santacruz A...9892124323 Pooja Nehwal Call Girls Services Call Girls service in Santacruz A...
9892124323 Pooja Nehwal Call Girls Services Call Girls service in Santacruz A...Pooja Nehwal
 
Call Girls Kothrud Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Kothrud Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance BookingCall Girls Kothrud Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Kothrud Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Bookingroncy bisnoi
 
Call Girls Banashankari Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service ...
Call Girls Banashankari Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service ...Call Girls Banashankari Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service ...
Call Girls Banashankari Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service ...amitlee9823
 
Kothanur Call Girls Service: 🍓 7737669865 🍓 High Profile Model Escorts | Bang...
Kothanur Call Girls Service: 🍓 7737669865 🍓 High Profile Model Escorts | Bang...Kothanur Call Girls Service: 🍓 7737669865 🍓 High Profile Model Escorts | Bang...
Kothanur Call Girls Service: 🍓 7737669865 🍓 High Profile Model Escorts | Bang...amitlee9823
 
High Profile Call Girls In Andheri 7738631006 Call girls in mumbai Mumbai ...
High Profile Call Girls In Andheri 7738631006 Call girls in mumbai  Mumbai ...High Profile Call Girls In Andheri 7738631006 Call girls in mumbai  Mumbai ...
High Profile Call Girls In Andheri 7738631006 Call girls in mumbai Mumbai ...Pooja Nehwal
 
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Ravet ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Servi...
Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Ravet ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Servi...Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Ravet ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Servi...
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Ravet ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Servi...Call Girls in Nagpur High Profile
 
(PARI) Alandi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escorts
(PARI) Alandi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escorts(PARI) Alandi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escorts
(PARI) Alandi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escortsranjana rawat
 
Develop Keyboard Skill.pptx er power point
Develop Keyboard Skill.pptx er power pointDevelop Keyboard Skill.pptx er power point
Develop Keyboard Skill.pptx er power pointGetawu
 
Book Paid Lohegaon Call Girls Pune 8250192130Low Budget Full Independent High...
Book Paid Lohegaon Call Girls Pune 8250192130Low Budget Full Independent High...Book Paid Lohegaon Call Girls Pune 8250192130Low Budget Full Independent High...
Book Paid Lohegaon Call Girls Pune 8250192130Low Budget Full Independent High...ranjana rawat
 
Call Girls Pimple Saudagar Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Pimple Saudagar Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance BookingCall Girls Pimple Saudagar Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Pimple Saudagar Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Bookingroncy bisnoi
 

Último (20)

Call Now ≽ 9953056974 ≼🔝 Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai ≼🔝 Delhi door step delevry≼🔝
Call Now ≽ 9953056974 ≼🔝 Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai ≼🔝 Delhi door step delevry≼🔝Call Now ≽ 9953056974 ≼🔝 Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai ≼🔝 Delhi door step delevry≼🔝
Call Now ≽ 9953056974 ≼🔝 Call Girls In Yusuf Sarai ≼🔝 Delhi door step delevry≼🔝
 
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Chakan ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Serv...
Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Chakan ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Serv...Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Chakan ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Serv...
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Chakan ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Serv...
 
Escorts Service Arekere ☎ 7737669865☎ Book Your One night Stand (Bangalore)
Escorts Service Arekere ☎ 7737669865☎ Book Your One night Stand (Bangalore)Escorts Service Arekere ☎ 7737669865☎ Book Your One night Stand (Bangalore)
Escorts Service Arekere ☎ 7737669865☎ Book Your One night Stand (Bangalore)
 
VVIP Pune Call Girls Karve Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comple...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Karve Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comple...VVIP Pune Call Girls Karve Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comple...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Karve Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comple...
 
VVIP Pune Call Girls Kalyani Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comp...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Kalyani Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comp...VVIP Pune Call Girls Kalyani Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comp...
VVIP Pune Call Girls Kalyani Nagar (7001035870) Pune Escorts Nearby with Comp...
 
Call Girls in Nagpur Sakshi Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls in Nagpur Sakshi Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur EscortsCall Girls in Nagpur Sakshi Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
Call Girls in Nagpur Sakshi Call 7001035870 Meet With Nagpur Escorts
 
9892124323, Call Girl in Juhu Call Girls Services (Rate ₹8.5K) 24×7 with Hote...
9892124323, Call Girl in Juhu Call Girls Services (Rate ₹8.5K) 24×7 with Hote...9892124323, Call Girl in Juhu Call Girls Services (Rate ₹8.5K) 24×7 with Hote...
9892124323, Call Girl in Juhu Call Girls Services (Rate ₹8.5K) 24×7 with Hote...
 
CHEAP Call Girls in Hauz Quazi (-DELHI )🔝 9953056974🔝(=)/CALL GIRLS SERVICE
CHEAP Call Girls in Hauz Quazi  (-DELHI )🔝 9953056974🔝(=)/CALL GIRLS SERVICECHEAP Call Girls in Hauz Quazi  (-DELHI )🔝 9953056974🔝(=)/CALL GIRLS SERVICE
CHEAP Call Girls in Hauz Quazi (-DELHI )🔝 9953056974🔝(=)/CALL GIRLS SERVICE
 
VIP Call Girls Dharwad 7001035870 Whatsapp Number, 24/07 Booking
VIP Call Girls Dharwad 7001035870 Whatsapp Number, 24/07 BookingVIP Call Girls Dharwad 7001035870 Whatsapp Number, 24/07 Booking
VIP Call Girls Dharwad 7001035870 Whatsapp Number, 24/07 Booking
 
9892124323 Pooja Nehwal Call Girls Services Call Girls service in Santacruz A...
9892124323 Pooja Nehwal Call Girls Services Call Girls service in Santacruz A...9892124323 Pooja Nehwal Call Girls Services Call Girls service in Santacruz A...
9892124323 Pooja Nehwal Call Girls Services Call Girls service in Santacruz A...
 
🔝 9953056974🔝 Delhi Call Girls in Ajmeri Gate
🔝 9953056974🔝 Delhi Call Girls in Ajmeri Gate🔝 9953056974🔝 Delhi Call Girls in Ajmeri Gate
🔝 9953056974🔝 Delhi Call Girls in Ajmeri Gate
 
Call Girls Kothrud Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Kothrud Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance BookingCall Girls Kothrud Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Kothrud Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
 
Call Girls Banashankari Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service ...
Call Girls Banashankari Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service ...Call Girls Banashankari Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service ...
Call Girls Banashankari Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service ...
 
Kothanur Call Girls Service: 🍓 7737669865 🍓 High Profile Model Escorts | Bang...
Kothanur Call Girls Service: 🍓 7737669865 🍓 High Profile Model Escorts | Bang...Kothanur Call Girls Service: 🍓 7737669865 🍓 High Profile Model Escorts | Bang...
Kothanur Call Girls Service: 🍓 7737669865 🍓 High Profile Model Escorts | Bang...
 
High Profile Call Girls In Andheri 7738631006 Call girls in mumbai Mumbai ...
High Profile Call Girls In Andheri 7738631006 Call girls in mumbai  Mumbai ...High Profile Call Girls In Andheri 7738631006 Call girls in mumbai  Mumbai ...
High Profile Call Girls In Andheri 7738631006 Call girls in mumbai Mumbai ...
 
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Ravet ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Servi...
Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Ravet ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Servi...Top Rated  Pune Call Girls Ravet ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Servi...
Top Rated Pune Call Girls Ravet ⟟ 6297143586 ⟟ Call Me For Genuine Sex Servi...
 
(PARI) Alandi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escorts
(PARI) Alandi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escorts(PARI) Alandi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escorts
(PARI) Alandi Call Girls Just Call 7001035870 [ Cash on Delivery ] Pune Escorts
 
Develop Keyboard Skill.pptx er power point
Develop Keyboard Skill.pptx er power pointDevelop Keyboard Skill.pptx er power point
Develop Keyboard Skill.pptx er power point
 
Book Paid Lohegaon Call Girls Pune 8250192130Low Budget Full Independent High...
Book Paid Lohegaon Call Girls Pune 8250192130Low Budget Full Independent High...Book Paid Lohegaon Call Girls Pune 8250192130Low Budget Full Independent High...
Book Paid Lohegaon Call Girls Pune 8250192130Low Budget Full Independent High...
 
Call Girls Pimple Saudagar Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Pimple Saudagar Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance BookingCall Girls Pimple Saudagar Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Pimple Saudagar Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
 

Wise advice for equity and debt outlook

  • 1. ADVICE for the WISE Newsletter –July’11
  • 2. Contents Index Page No. Economic Update 4 Equity Outlook 8 Debt Outlook 13 Forex 16 Commodities 17 Real Estate 18 2
  • 3. From the Desk of the CIO… Dear Investor, This is because if the global outlook improves sharply we may see a smart rally thereby creating concerns of over-valuation A welcome respite in softening of commodity prices provided in the medium term. Curiously hence the global investors may some much-needed positive sentiment to the Indian equity choose to increase their allocation to Indian equities amidst a markets last month. Most benchmarks recovered quite well from scenario which by domestic standards may not count as a their early lows and are showing definite signs of positive near very positive one. Hence it is prudent to not sit on the term movement. With global concerns reducing on the back of sidelines in this market Greek Government agreeing to a tough austerity measures and thus tiding over the short term liquidity concerns in managing its Debt markets continue to expect a further rate hike in light of debt, risk appetite seems to have returned amongst global the persistently high inflation. The price hike in diesel is likely investors. Domestic investors have also taken a cue from the to make it worse still – at least in the short term. We maintain mildly positive sentiment and are cautiously entering the equity our negative outlook on long term debt and positive outlook markets. on short term debt as well as short term credit. A recent study shows that by various measures, India is one of the In the current market scenario, structured products that most overheated emerging markets. In concrete terms, this means significantly add to the portfolio returns for a mildly bullish that the economy is operating at or above its productive capacity. market in the medium term are likely to be quite useful. In In such a case it cannot grow faster unless there are capacity line with our view on Indian equities, we are proposing one improvements through aggressive investments in infrastructure such option. The idea is generate additional returns for a and capital formation.. mildly positive performance of the markets while capping the upside if the markets grow aggressively. This is a valuable On account of these concerns, our short term outlook continues to addition to one’s portfolio since the rest of the equity remain cautious while in the medium to long term we maintain portfolio should do well if the markets rally sharply while if our bullish outlook. Investors would do well to continue investing they remain subdued a well-designed structured product in smaller amounts now. would boost overall returns. “Advisory services are provided through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. (PMS) having SEBI Registration No: INP000001512. Investments are subject to market risks. Please read the disclaimer on slide no.23” 3
  • 4. Economic Update - Snapshot of Key Markets Sensex Nifty 140 S&P 500 Nikkei 225 As on30th Change over Change over 130 June 2011 last month last year 120 110 BSE Sensex 18846 1.9% 6.5% 100 90 Equity S&P Nifty 5647 1.6% 6.3% 80 markets S&P 500 (1.8%) 28.1% 1321 Nikkei 225 9816 1.3% 4.6% 8.80 10 yr Gsec 8.30 7.80 7.30 10-yr G-Sec Yield 8.33% (9 bps) 77 bps 6.80 30/Nov/10 31/Jul/10 31/May/11 30/Sep/10 28/Feb/11 31/Mar/11 30/Jun/10 31/Jan/11 30/Jun/11 31/Aug/10 31/Dec/10 30/Apr/11 31/Oct/10 Debt Markets Call Markets 7.75% 35 bps 350 bps Fixed Deposit* 8.25% 0 bps 225 bps 23000 22000 21000 20000 19000 18000 RICI Index 3941 (5.6%) 33.6% 17000 16000 Gold Commodity 15000 Gold (`/10gm) 21942 (2.5%) 16.7% markets Crude Oil ($/bbl) 112 (4.7%) 49.1% 48.00 47.00 46.00 `/$ 45.00 44.00 Forex Rupee/Dollar 44.72 0.7% 4.2% 43.00 42.00 31/May/11 31/Aug/10 31/Dec/10 31/Oct/10 30/Nov/10 31/Jul/10 30/Sep/10 31/Jan/11 28/Feb/11 31/Mar/11 30/Jun/10 30/Jun/11 30/Apr/11 markets Yen/Dollar 80.85 (0.2%) 9.5% * Indicates SBI one-year FD 4
  • 5. Economy Update - Global • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index, which had declined in May to 61.7, decreased further in June to 58.5. Inspite of a 0.2% increase in inflation vs. US the 0.4% rise last month, the confidence was low due to continuing worries about the economy’s strength, high unemployment and stagnating wages. • The m-o-m unemployment rate remain unchanged at 9.1 per cent in June 11. • Euro-zone PMI fell to 53.8 in June from 55.8 in May 11. The slowing was due to weakened output growth, lacklustre domestic demand in many countries, Europe especially the austerity –hit periphery & near stagnation of export sales. • Unemployment rate in the Euro zone remained unchanged in June‘11 at 9.9%. • The Japan Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) decline to seasonally adjusted at 50.7 in June down from May’s 51.3, mainly due to stagnation of new Japan order levels, reflecting subdued client demand from both domestic and external sources. • Japan’s unemployment rate fell to 4.5% in June ’11 from 4.7% in May ’11 • The HSBC China Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index is down to 11 month low at 50.7 in June from 51.6 in May. Emerging economies • Chinese economy is expected to slow down to grow at 9.6% in 2011. The retail sales increased by16.9 percent year-on-year basis in May 5
  • 6. Economy Outlook - Domestic 16.0% IIP monthly data 14.0% • The GDP growth rate for Q4 FY11 came in at 7.8% the 12.0% lowest in the year while the Q1 estimates for Q1 and Q3 10.0% were revised upwards to 9.3 (from 8.9) and 8.3 (from an 8.0% earlier 8.2) respectively. The economic growth for the year, 6.0% is 8.5% for 2010-’11 backed by improved farm output and 4.0% growth in the services sector. 2.0% 0.0% • The slowdown in the rate of growth in the last quarter was May 10 Jun 10 Jul 10 Aug 10 Sep 10 Oct 10 Nov 10 Dec 10 Jan 11 Feb 11 Mar 11 Apr 11 due to poor performance of the manufacturing sector • Industrial output as measured by the Index of Industrial which grew at 5.5% v/s the 15.2% growth last year. A Production (IIP) decreased to 6.3% (y-o-y) in April from slowdown was also seen in the mining, trade and hotels an upwards revised 7.8% in March ’11. This data was while services, including banking and insurance witnessed according to the new base year (2004/05), new growth in the last quarter. components and weightings. According to the old series, the figure for the month stands at 4.4%. • The next year growth target is 8% which we believe is achievable. • Manufacturing growth slowed from 18% in the same period last year to 4.4% in 2011. Mining also slowed down from 12% last year to 2.1% this year. According to the old series, low off-take of capital goods was noticed with production growth at just 2.5% in April 2011 compared with 64.1 % in April 2010 while as per the new 10.0 GDP growth 9.0 series, capital goods registered a growth of 14.5% 8.0 • The IIP figures have been very volatile in the last year. 7.0 We believe that monthly indicators and IIP in isolation 6.0 may not a very efficient way of indicating long term 5.0 growth. We expect the growth to eventually moderate 4.0 out though high input costs may also be a dampener for FY10 (Q1) FY10(Q2) FY10(Q3) FY10(Q4) FY11(Q1) FY11(Q2) FY11(Q3) FY11(Q4) manufacturing. 6
  • 7. Economic Outlook - Domestic Growth in credit & deposits of SCBs • Inflation as measured by WPI decreased Bank Credit Aggregate Deposits marginally and was recorded at 9.06% (y-o-y) 30.0% for the month of May 11 as compared to 8.66% 25.0% during April 11. The increase was driven by 20.0% higher manufactured goods prices. These 15.0% figures are based on the new base year and 10.0% WPI list. 5.0% • We expect WPI inflation numbers to moderate out due to the expected decrease in food inflation (on the back of a good monsoon) and • Bank credit growth rose to 21.8 percent in May* the monetary tightening stance by RBI, but from 21.2 percent in the month of April while increasing fuel prices may be a cause of worry. Deposits grew by 16.6 percent compared to 16.7 percent in April 2011. 11.0% Wholesale Price Index 10.0% • Growth of credit demand and tight liquidity had put pressure on the banks to raise their deposit rates. 9.0% We have seen a rate hike of 25 bps in the June policy 8.0% review but high inflationary pressure may lead the 7.0% RBI to increase rates further in the coming months. This increase may dampen the rate of credit growth 6.0% Oct/10 Jan/11 Jun/10 Mar/11 Aug/10 May/10 Jul/10 Apr/11 May/11 Sep/10 Nov/10 Dec/10 Feb/11 though. * End of period figures 7
  • 8. Equity Outlook Looking back at June, the equity markets were flooded with negative news flow on account of high inflation, global turmoil & high interest rates. We saw RBI raising interest rates by 25bps. Globally, we saw a scare due to solvency issues present in Greece. A crisis was averted by some deft measures taken by the European and Greek authorities. The month end saw relief rally with a FII’s pumping in 5000 crores in Indian Equity. Global markets also posted the biggest weekly rally in two years driven by easing Greece turmoil. We are positive on the long term Indian growth story and we consider any short term panic as excellent entry opportunity for equity clients. The government has hiked fuel prices indicating its intention to take a few politically unpopular but economically sound decisions. Global Crude oil prices have also come down and have been hovering around 110$/barrel for brent crude. While Inflation would stay at 9% plus levels for next few months, going forward we would expect some respite due to cooling off of food and energy prices. We would expect interest rates to peak after rising another 25-50bps. An earlier than expected peaking of the inflation numbers would help RBI reach the end of the tightening cycle earlier than expected. Monsoons are expected to be around 95% of the long term average which would be sufficient for the Kharif crop. The short term concerns like inflation, interest rates and high crude prices have largely been discounted by the market. The markets are trading at a very reasonable valuation of 14 times FY12 earnings. We will have the earning season beginning soon and we expect Q1FY12 (Y-o-Y) earnings growth to be in the range of 15%-20%. The corporate advance tax numbers have shown a growth of 22% over last year. We expect the earnings to be led by the banking space. The earnings growth for leading private sector banks is expected to be between 20%-25% and hence we continue to be bullish on private banks. We also expect IT and Pharma to post good numbers. The monsoon session of Parliament, also starting in August, could see some reform measures in sectors like Insurance and retail being announced. We expect the earnings growth and reform action to drive equity market returns in the medium to long term . 8
  • 9. Sector Outlook Sector Stance Remarks We believe in a large sized opportunity presented by Pharma sector in India. India’s strength in generics is difficult to replicate due to quality and quantity of available skilled manpower. With the Healthcare Overweight developed world keen to cut healthcare costs, and a vast pipeline of drugs going off-patent, Indian pharma players are at the cusp of rapid growth. We would bet on the opportunity in Generics and CRAMS space The USD 1 trillion Infra opportunity is hard to ignore. We believe Power sector to be a better play over other sub sectors such as ports, roads and telecom infrastructure, because of favorable economics E&C Equalweight under PPP model. Within power, we like the engineering companies over utilities, T&D and other infrastructure owners because of their superior profitability and better competitive dynamics. Financial sector is undeniably the lubricant for economic growth. Whether the growth comes from consumption or investments, credit growth is inevitable. Being a well regulated sector, BFSI in India BFSI Equalweight has good asset quality and capital adequacy ratios. Despite the increasing in interest rates, we believe banks will be able to pass on higher cost of funds to clients as demand remains strong We prefer “discretionary consumption” beneficiaries such as Cigarettes and branded garments, as the FMCG Equalweight growth in this segment will be disproportionately higher vis-à-vis the increase in disposable incomes. Commodity prices have moved up significantly I last six months due to easy monetary environment. Metals Equal weight Positive on the producers of Steel, Copper and Aluminium. 9
  • 10. Sector Outlook Sector Stance Remarks Robust volume growth led by some uptick in pricing makes IT an attractive investment. Market IT/ITES Equalweight share gains led by deeper and wider expansion of global delivery model will drive earnings growth. Best played through Tier I stocks. Demand outlook remains robust with strong earnings growth despite raw material price hikes Automobiles Equalweight and raging competition. We are more bullish on commercial vehicle and agricultural vehicles segment due to lesser competition and higher pricing power. Cement demand will certainly grow over the next three years. But the issue is on the supply Cement Underweight side. We do see an oversupply situation for the next 3-4 quarters. We like the growth prospects of power sector but believe that value will be created by Power Utilities Underweight engineering services providers. Merchant power rates have been sliding downwards and coal prices have been on the way up putting pressure on return ratios. The regulatory cap on RoE does not allow a vast value creation opportunity in the Energy Underweight infrastructure owning companies. We would stay away from oil PSUs, due to issues of cross subsidization distorting the underlying economics of oil exploration and refinering businesses. The regulatory hurdles, competitive pressures and leverage prevent any return to high profitability levels in the short to medium term. The huge capex incurred in the rollout of 3G Telecom Underweight services will put further stress on the already stretched balance sheets. Remain cautious on Sector’s prospects. 10
  • 11. DELTA Portfolio • DELTA seeks to invest in a portfolio of mutual funds through a PMS route that aims to would provide higher returns than the blended benchmark. • The asset allocation between Debt and Equity would be done on the basis of the risk profile of the investor (conservative, moderate or aggressive) • There is further allocation into sub-asset classes depending on our views on the same • The portfolio would be reviewed and rebalanced regularly to maintain the asset allocation and the right selection of funds Asset Allocation for DELTA: Asset Class DELTA Conservative DELTA Moderate DELTA Aggressive Equity 50% 75% 100% Debt 50% 25% 0% 11
  • 12. Portfolio Performance* 1 Year Since Inception (29/4/09) Portfolios 3 Months (Absolute) (Absolute) CAGR Conservative 0.42% 3.78% 22.03% Market Return Benchmark** (0.79%) 3.75% 17.01% Moderate (0.10%) 2.87% 28.20% Market Return Benchmark** (1.65%) 3.82% 23.06% Aggressive (0.31%) 4.15% 35.45% Market Return Benchmark** (2.62%) 2.99% 28.06% Absolute Return Benchmark 1.50% 6.00% 8.00% Asset Class Benchmarks Market Return Benchmark: Equity BSE 200 Market Return Benchmark: Debt Blended Bond Fund Index Absolute Return Benchmark SBI 1 year Fixed deposit rate *(Returns as on 30th June 2011) The performance specified is post expenses.The performance indicated here is based on in-house testing of the portfolio. The portfolio has been offered on the PMS platform since 23rd November 2010 **The Market Return Benchmark is based on BSE 200 and Blended Bond Fund index, taken in the same proportion as the asset allocation of that variant 12
  • 13. Debt Outlook 8.90 Yield curve 8.80 8.70 • The benchmark 10 yr G-sec yield decreased from 8.60 8.41% in the month of May ‘11 to close at 8.50 8.40 around 8.33% in June‘11. 8.30 8.20 • With no respite from the high inflation in spite 8.10 8.00 of monetary tightening, we may see a few more 7.90 interest rate hikes in the year. (%) 0.02 0.98 1.94 2.90 3.85 4.81 5.77 6.73 7.69 8.65 9.61 10.57 11.53 12.48 13.44 14.40 15.36 16.32 17.28 18.24 19.20 • In the last month, we saw tight liquidity in the 8.60 beginning of the month on account of the 8.40 10-yr G-sec yield advance tax outflows but in the second half, as 8.20 the money supply increased, a decline was seen 8.00 in the shorter term yields. 7.80 7.60 • We expect yields across the yield curve to remain 7.40 at elevated levels. High inflation, monetary 7.20 tightening and rising credit growth will keep the yields at the longer end range bound. 13
  • 14. Debt Strategy Category Outlook Details We recommend short term bond funds with a 6-12 month investment horizon as we expect them to deliver superior Short Tenure returns due to high YTM. We have seen the short term yields Debt harden due to reduced liquidity due to expected advance tax outflows and consecutive rate hikes prompted by inflationary pressures. Hence, Short term bond funds and FMPs provide an interesting investment option. Some AA and select A rated securities are very attractive at the current yields. A similar trend can be seen in the Fixed Credit Deposits also. Tight liquidity in the system has also contributed to widening of the spreads making entry at current levels attractive. With tight liquidity and inflationary pressure being high, we expect more rate hikes in the current year. As the inflationary Long Tenure pressure begins to settle down, these may be attractive Debt investments but currently, we would recommend staying out of the longer term investments. 14
  • 15. Pegasus I Objective: Payoff Scenario:  To generate superior payoff with a coupon of 13% amid  The structures pays a contingent coupon of 13% along with 100% participation in the market on the upside. participation on the reference index, subject to a knockout event at 120% of the initial level.  To generate absolute positive return even if the return on reference index is negative (up to ~10%) amid principal  In the event of a knockout event happening, the structures pays a protecting below contingent level. coupon of 13%. Nifty Hybrid Product Specifications Payoff At Maturity Issuer Karvy Financial Services Limited If Final Level >= Knockout Level Principal * (1 + Coupon ) If Initial Level < Final Level < Principal * (1 + Coupon + Instrument Secured Redeemable Non-Convertible Knockout Level PR * {Final Level /Initial Level – 1}) Debenture If Initial Level > Final Level >= Principal * (1 + Coupon ) Reference Index S&P CNX Nifty Index Contingent Level Tenor 14 / 15 Months If Final Level < Contingent Principal Level Initial Level Reference Index as on Trade Date 40% Final Level Reference Index as on Trade Date + Nifty Return Structure Payoff 30% 14M 20% Knockout Level 120% of Initial Level 10% Contingent Level 90% of Initial Level 0% Coupon 13% -25% -15% -5% 5% 15% 25% -10% Participation Rate 100% -20% Note: Graph not to scale and pricing is indicative only Principal Protection 100% -30% 15
  • 16. Forex Rupee movement vis-à-vis other currencies (M-o-M) Trade balance and export-import data 80 0 3.0% 60 Export Import Trade Balance (mn $) -5000 40 -10000 2.5% 20 0 -15000 -20 -20000 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% • Exports for the month of May increased by 56.9% (y-o-y) 0.5% while imports increased by 54.1% over last year. The trade 0.0% deficit increased to USD 14.9 bn. USD GBP EURO YEN -0.5% 140000 Capital Account Balance -1.0% 90000 • The Rupee appreciated against USD & GBP and depreciated 40000 against the Euro & Yen. -10000 • Appreciation was witnessed due to FII inflows on account of FY 10 (Q1) FY 10 (Q2) FY 10 (Q3) FY 10 (Q4) FY 11 (Q1) FY 11 (Q2) FY 11 (Q3) FY 11 (Q4) rise in domestic markets coupled with decline in country’s food inflation. Appreciation against USD was also due to • Capital account balance was positive throughout FY11 and overall weakness seen in dollar against other currencies. stands at `273133 Cr. for the fiscal while it was 37,298 Cr. for Q4. • The GBP also depreciated against the Euro as the • We expect the capital account balance to remain positive policymakers decided to keep the interest rates at record low as higher interest rates would make investment in the for the month while the Euro appreciated after the Greek Indian markets attractive hence drawing investments into Parliament approved the Austerity Bill. the market. 16
  • 17. Commodities 23000 Gold prices tumbled as Greece progressed in staving off a 22000 Gold 21000 default amid US ending QE2, softening the prices of the 20000 commodities. This fall has deteriorated the technical strength 19000 that Gold has been exhibiting for a while. Further, ECB is likely 18000 Precious 17000 to hike the benchmark interest rate by 25bps as the Greek risk 16000 Metals of default has subsided; which will further put pressure on the 15000 yellow metal. On the flip side, the renewed strength in the dollar will keep a lid on the gold prices for some time to come. We expect precious metal to stay subdued in the days to come. . 130.0 Crude 120.0 Oil prices witnessed a downtrend following a surprise 110.0 inventory release by the IEA. Nevertheless oil prices are well 100.0 supported on the lower side. Given the economic situation 90.0 Oil & Gas amid recent strong equity performance along with the implied 80.0 summer demand (in the US), oil prices are likely to rule firmer 70.0 60.0 and the trend is positive. Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun 10 10 10 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 11
  • 18. Real Estate Outlook - I Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II** Sales are under pressure as usual, Q2 & Q3 of 2011 The demand is keeping the Tier II cities afloat, the would clear clouds on possible correction in this infrastructure development in these cities have sector. Lot of developers launching new projects made the residential development spread across the since the existing ones have hit roadblocks due to city limits. On an average price is still affordable. Key high prices. The loading on actual usable area has development developer are seeing demand of 3BHK seen a sharp rise in Mumbai, Bangalore & Pune, and luxury development but are only doing well if from an average 20% to 35%, this is another way to the project size is limited to 100-150 units. The Residential hedge the realty prices. Investors seem to be trend seems to be favorable since there is lot of interested in under development, pre-launched demand comes from smaller cities closer to these projects which clearly give them appreciation Tier-II & III cities without any possible speculation. RBI credit rate increase with tightening of construction finance to developer is only increasing pressure on developers. Still in the shadows of over-supply and cautious Commercial segment not that significant, but unlike expansion approach by corporate, this segment Tier-I the price differentiation is double favoring has gone through correction. Rates per sqft have commercial since most of them are in CBD areas. seen almost 30% down-trend and will be stagnant Commercial/IT for the coming 2-3 quarters. Surely, the segment is at the down-tip of the cycle, and is the best opportunity for companies looking for long term holding of real estate office space. 18
  • 19. Real Estate Outlook - II Asset Classes Tier-1* Tier-II** The FDI allowance is given lot of impetus to this Retail is slow in these markets; unorganized markets sector, its been now almost 3 years since retail has are still a hot choice. Most high-street locations are seen a major transformation on all its business expensive to own thus have a high lease rental and aspects and have been built to suit Indian way for have witnesses heavy churn. Investment would consumerism. Low cost, high reach, heavy variety, always have capital protected due to dearth of less innovation, existence with competition, available space. Retail maximizing bottom line than top-line approach have been making the retailers smarter. Revenue share model with a built in MG is how the deals are done Most interesting times, traded now more as Still available cheaper, plotted development is a hit commodity, very fastly getting absorbed, locked. since the trend of standalone homes are prevalent. Non-real estate sector see immense opportunity Land since it can be used as tangible and most credible pledge against business 19
  • 20. International Investing: Superfund Introduction Product Features • Superfund is a group of investment companies with reach • Superfund A2 is available in Dollar, Euro and Gold across 20 countries – predominantly in Europe, followed by US denominations. The minimum ticket size is $5,000 or €5,000. and Asia. It was founded in 1996. The investment can be made from Indian money taken abroad • Superfund group manages a number of funds – all of which use in line with the RBI limit of $200,000 per person per year. exclusively futures contracts in commodities, currencies, stock Alternately, it can be made from funds available with the indices and bonds across several global exchanges. Hence the investor in a foreign bank account. product belongs to the asset class of “Managed Futures”. Fund manager/strategy • It can be thought of as an alternative investment avenue with • Superfund does not employ human fund managers. Its focus on absolute returns – in a manner similar to hedge investment strategy is that of trend following. It focuses on funds, but with greater regulatory oversight and restriction to spotting definitive trends in the markets and entering/exiting trading in only highly liquid futures. The investment strategy the markets on the basis of pre-determined rules. It is used by Superfund Funds is algorithmic trading focused on illustrated in the graph below. trend following. Performance 2011 (YTD) 2010 2009 Superfund Green Gold A SPC 2.3% 38.86% -17.11% Barclays CTA Index (1.23%) 5.47% -0.10% 20
  • 21. AEGON Religare Rising Star AEGON Religare Rising Star is unit linked child plan. It helps to build a corpus for child. The parent is life assured and in case of parent’s death during this tenure all future premiums would be waived off. The company would continue to fund all future basic premiums to policy fund value when due. Additionally, amount equal to annualised premium would be payable to child at start of each policy year till maturity. On maturity fund value would also be payable to child. Some of the key features of the plan are : •Plan can be bought by parent in the age group of 18-60 years for child aged between 0-15 years . •Policy term is 25- current age of the child and premium paying term is equal to policy term. •Inbuilt income benefit option in case of prospers / parent’s death. This option pays amount equal to annualised premium to beneficiary (child) till maturity of the plan from the date of death of parent without paying any additional premium. •Low charging structure make it highly competitive when compared to its peers. •Option to have upto 300% of the minimum basic sum assured as coverage amount providing enhanced protection. •Option to select Invest Protect Option, in this option it is possible to gain from investment in equity market and also minimizes the risk to returns as policy nears maturity. In this option money is systematically shifted from Accelerator Fund to Secure Fund during the last 3 policy years. •Auto-rebalancing - At the end of every policy year, this feature automatically rebalances the allocation of investments in various funds to the allocation proportions chosen by investor. 21
  • 22. Why Karvy Private Wealth? Leveraging breadth of related businesses that KARVY is in KARVY is an integrated financial services group, with Karvy Private Wealth being one of its arms. The entire group’s strengths are leveraged to provide end-to-end wealth advice to Karvy Private Wealth clients. For example, SME clients can receive advice on their personal wealth while also getting investment banking advice from the I-banking arm of Karvy. Maximum choice of products & services KARVY Private Wealth offers the widest breadth of products and services, providing clients a variety of options through a single contact. Products and services include equities, debt instruments, commodities, Mutual Funds, Insurance, Structured Products, Financial Planning, real estate advice, etc. Product-neutral advice We ensure that our recommendations are 100% product-neutral and unbiased because unlike other players, we are neither tied up with any one particular insurance company nor do we have our own mutual funds. All-India presence Set to have business in 20 - 25 cities we are poised to cater to families and businesses spread across multiple cities in India providing them with combined and integrated advice. For one-off services, if required, we can also leverage KARVY Group’s presence in 400 cities. 22
  • 23. Disclaimer The information and views presented here are prepared by Karvy Private Wealth or other Karvy Group companies. The information contained herein is based on our analysis and upon sources that we consider reliable. We, however, do not vouch for the accuracy or the completeness thereof. This material is for personal information and we are not responsible for any loss incurred based upon it. The investments discussed or recommended here may not be suitable for all investors. Investors must make their own investment decisions based on their specific investment objectives and financial position and using such independent advice, as they believe necessary. While acting upon any information or analysis mentioned here, investors may please note that neither Karvy nor any person connected with any associated companies of Karvy accepts any liability arising from the use of this information and views mentioned here. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its affiliates may hold long or short positions in the above-mentioned companies from time to time. Every employee of Karvy and its associated companies are required to disclose their individual stock holdings and details of trades, if any, that they undertake. The team rendering corporate analysis and investment recommendations are restricted in purchasing/selling of shares or other securities till such a time this recommendation has either been displayed or has been forwarded to clients of Karvy. All employees are further restricted to place orders only through Karvy Stock Broking Ltd. The information given in this document on tax are for guidance only, and should not be construed as tax advice. Investors are advised to consult their respective tax advisers to understand the specific tax incidence applicable to them. We also expect significant changes in the tax laws once the new Direct Tax Code is in force – this could change the applicability and incidence of tax on investments 23
  • 24. Contact Us Bangalore 080-26606126 Chennai 044-45925923 Delhi 011-43533941 Goa 0832-2731822 Gurgaon 0124-4780222 Hyderabad 040-44507282 Kolkata 033-40515100 Mumbai 022-33055000 Noida 0120-4255337 Pune 020-30116238 Email: wealth@karvy.com SMS: ‘HNI’ to 56767 Website: www.karvywealth.com Corporate Office : 702, Hallmark Business Plaza, Off Bandra Kurla Complex, Bandra (East), Mumbai – 400 051 24