The World This Week - 21st to 25th March, 2016

1. THE WORLD THIS WEEK
March 21 – March 25 , 2016

2. EQUITY VIEW

3. EQUITY VIEW
• The state of the global economy is currently stable , especially with the commodities bounce back and
most of the industrial commodities staying at those elevated levels. The RBI policy is due in the next
week, and the market has already factored in a 50 basis point rate cut. We can expect profit booking in
the beginning of the next week.

4. EQUITY VIEW
• Currently we are in a “Buy on Decline” market. Investors should look at cleaning up their portfolios of all
junk and high beta stocks and invest into high quality stocks on declines, preferably on defensives. The
monsoons and discretionary consumption hold the key to a further rally in the markets, on the backdrop
of a global thrust and the pay commission awards.

5. NEWS

6. DOMESTIC MACRO
• The Indian economy is expected to grow at 7.2 per cent in 2016-17, a tad lower than Central Statistics
Office's advance estimates of 7.6 per cent in the current fiscal due to weak investments and external
headwinds, says BMI Research.
• The Reserve Bank of India is expected to go for a rate cut in its first bi-monthly Monetary Policy
Statement for the year 2016-17, which will be announced on Tuesday, April 5. The declining inflation and
a negative industrial outlook have strengthened the case for RBI to cut interest rate in its first bi-monthly
monetary policy.

7. GLOBAL MACRO
• Germany's debt agency would issue around 50.5 billion Euros worth of bond
and treasury bills in the second quarter of 2015, in line with issuance plans
from December. The debt agency said it still aimed to issue around 13.5
billion Euros in money market instruments, or Bubills, and around 37 billion
Euros in capital market instruments in the quarter.
• Economic recovery in the euro zone is set to continue in the coming months,
but not as fast as hoped owing to global uncertainties and slowing growth in
emerging economies, view of European Central Bank.
EURO

8. GLOBAL MACRO
• The dollar crept towards its strongest week in a month as markets rethought
the outlook for U.S. interest rates after a series of Fed officials encouraged
expectations of at least two more quarter point rises this year. The optimism
that implies about the outlook for economic growth, allied to some solid
sentiment surveys on and a positive reaction to cost cuts by banking giant
Credit Suisse, helped European stock markets into the black.
• Gold hit its lowest in a month, as the dollar firmed ahead of new U.S.
economic data and speeches by Federal Reserve officials that may signal
more interest rate increases than anticipated. All eyes will be on Fed Chair
Janet Yellen who speaks on the U.S. economy and monetary policy, with
investors looking for further clues on the number and timing of rate hikes this
year.
UNITED STATES

9. GLOBAL MACRO
• China's trade deficit in services narrowed to $16 billion in February
compared with $20.7 billion in January. February's gap was largely due to a
$15.5 billion gulf in spending between Chinese who spent more abroad than
foreign tourists in China, data from the State Administration of Foreign
Exchange (SAFE).
• Profits earned by Chinese industrial firms in January and February
combined rose 4.8 percent from a year earlier, totaling 780.7 billion yuan
($119.8 billion) in the two-month period, the National Bureau of Statistics
(NBS) said. That compared with an annual fall of 4.7 percent in December
2015, which was the seventh straight month of decline.
CHINA

10. INDICES
Date Sensex Midcap Auto Bankex CD CG FMCG HC IT Metals O&G Power Realty Teck
21/03/16 25,285 10,444 17,541 18,155 11,476 12,725 7,707 15,442 11,230 7,455 9,136 1,727 1,202 6,028
22/03/16 25,330 10,499 17,731 18,153 11,659 12,877 7,617 15,454 11,230 7,515 9,161 1,748 1,234 6,032
23/03/16 25,338 10,524 17,830 18,110 11,542 12,937 7,614 15,449 11,298 7,643 9,060 1,743 1,231 6,073
0.21% 0.77% 1.65% -0.25% 0.58% 1.67% -1.21% 0.05% 0.60% 2.52% -0.82% 0.95% 2.46% 0.75%

11. COMMODITIES AND CURRENCY
Date USD GBP EURO YEN Crude (Rs. per BBL) Gold (Rs. Per 10gms)
21/03/2016 66.504 95.8722 74.9168 59.66 2627 29080
22/03/2016 66.5411 95.7526 74.8987 59.37 2761 29080
23/03/2016 66.864 94.9268 74.9077 59.52 2758 29080
24/03/2016 - - - - 2661 -
-0.54% 1.00% 0.01% 0.24% -1.28% 0.00%

12. DEBT
Tenor Gilt Yield in % (Friday) Change in bps (Week)
1-Year 7.22 -6
2-Year 7.33 -3
5-Year 7.65 -5
10-Year 7.51 -1

13. KIASL TEAM
Jharna Agarwal
Head- Products
Jharna.agrawal@Karvy.com
Nupur Gupta
Product Manager
Nupur.gupta@Karvy.com

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