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Macro Economic Presentation for KPMG, Dallas, TX, May, 2014
- 2. 2014 US Economic Forecast
Real GDP: 2.5-3%
Real PCE:
Real PCE Deflator:
CPI-U:
Residential Investment:
Non-Residential Investment:
US Govt Budget Deficit:
Fed Funds: 0
10-yr Notes: 2.5%
- 3. The Economic Cycle
Early Expansion:
Duration:17 months
Inflation:Continuing to fall
Interest Rates: Bottoming Out
Investments: Tech, Transportation
Middle Expansion:
Duration: 17 months
Inflation: Bottoming out
Interest Rates: Rising modestly
Investments: Services, Capital Goods
Late Expansion:
Duration: 17 months
Inflation: Rising
Interest Rates: Rising rapidly
Investments: Basic Materials, Energy
Early Contraction:
Duration: About 6 months
Inflation: Rising
Interest Rates: Peaking
Investments: Health, Consumer Staples
Late Contraction:
Duration: About 6 months
Inflation: Flat to declining
Interest Rates: Falling
Investments: Financials, Utilities,
Consumer Cyclicals