1. Potential Impacts of Global Warming on the
United States Agriculture Industry
Prepared for the United States
Department of Agriculture
Prepared by D & K Consulting Partners
David Groner & Keith Bolden
March 20, 2007

2. Table of Contents
INTRODUCTION – What is Global Warming?.................................................................1
POTENTIAL U.S. IMPACTS…………………………………………………………….1
ELEMENTS OF GLOBAL WARMING……………………………………………. 2 – 3
THE POLITICAL DEBATE……………………………………………………………...4
CONCLUSION……………………………………………………………………………4
FOOTNOTES……………………………………………………………………………..4

3. GLOBAL WARMING AND THE EFFECTS ON U.S.
AGRICULTURE
INTRODUCTION
Scientists have been researching the effects of atmospheric gases that might cause climate
changes on a global scale. This effect is often referred to as the greenhouse effect. The
direct effect is an increase in temperature which causes damage to the agriculture of the
United States and the worldi
. Through the 1900’s, the debate was two-sided and fairly
even. In the 20th
Century, due to compelling evidence, the argument has leaned more
towards the side of global warming causing a potential problem for the U.S. agriculture.ii
Due to the increasing concerns of both public and political groups, it will be important for
the USDA to be aware and prepared when dealing with the issue of rising carbon dioxide
levels. Rising carbon dioxide levels are linked to the use of fossil fuels and exploitation
of the land.
POTENTIAL U.S. IMPACTS
Climate change is a global issue, and the Kyoto Protocol entered into force February 16,
2005, requiring all signatory nations follow a mandatory reduction of greenhouse gas
emissions.iii
The United States, being a major contributor to global warming at 21
percent of all emissions, has not signed into the Kyoto Protocol. The U.S. and Australia
are the only two countries that have declined the Kyoto Protocol, and it is beginning to
have political impacts on the U.S.iv
The rise of CO2 fertilization has caused a global increase in temperatures. These
increases in temperature have impacted the U.S. Agriculture in positive and negative
ways. They estimate that a five degree temperature rise -projected to occur in the next
30-50 years at current rates of carbon dioxide accumulation in the atmosphere - could
result in $15 billion to $30 billion in annual damage to American crops.v
USDA Agriculture Report Page 1

4. The above time series shows the combined global land and marine surface temperature
record from 1856 to 2001. Data from Jones et al., 1998; and from the Climate Research
Unit at the University of East Anglia (www.cru.uea.ac.uk; compilation by Phil Jones).
Vehicles in the U.S. contribute almost a quarter of the annual emissions of CO2. These
CO2 emissions enter the atmosphere; the more gasoline burned, the more CO2 released.
ELEMENTS OF GLOBAL WARMING
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
CompactCar Full Size Car Truck-Van Bus
Modes Of Transportation
MPG Pounds of CO2 per gallon
As you see from the graph, the compact car is the most environmentally friendly vehicle,
averaging 24 miles per gallon and 20 pounds of CO2 per gallon.vi
The rest of the statistics
are as follows:
In addition to transportation, there are two other elements to global warming that should
be considered, human contributions and the different types of U.S. agriculture affected by
global warming.
USDA Agriculture Report Page 2
Vehicle MPG Pounds of CO2 per gallon
Compact Car 24 20
Full Size Car 16 20
Truck-Van 13 21
Bus 8 22

5. When considering the human contributions to global warming, there are five in particular
that should be explored in further detail, Carbon Dioxide, Methane, CFC’s, Nitrous
Oxide, and other. The highest contribution is Carbon Dioxide, which is the air that we
breathe back out after taking in Oxygen. The next contribution is Methane, which is
human sewage waste. A representation of the human contribution in detail is as follows:
USDA Agriculture Report Page 3

6. The effects of global warming can be beneficial to some forms of U.S. agriculture and
harmful to others. In particular, wheat and non-grains are benefiting from global
warming while other grains and livestock are being harmed by global warming effects.
The effects in detail are listed below:
USDA Agriculture Report Page 4
Human Contributions to the Greenhouse Effect
49%
18%
14%
13%
6%
Carbon Dioxide Methane CFCs Other Nitrous Oxide

7. THE POLITICAL DEBATE
In President George W. Bush’s state of the union address, he stated that climate change is
a serious challenge. He proposed a 20 percent reduction in gasoline consumption over
the next 10 years. The Kyoto Protocol declared a 6 percent cut in all emissions around
the world by 2012. Environmentalists feel that Bush’s proposal will have little effect on
environmental threats. The big push in the democratic led congress is to instigate
mandatory caps on emissions. One of the biggest pushes by environmental groups is the
human-caused effects on global warming, and they carry a heavy agenda addressing the
human issue.
CONCLUSION
Although there have been political indifferences, scientists have made great strides
towards addressing the issues of global warming. It is a general conclusion that the
increase of Carbon Dioxide is changing agriculture around the world. The two-sided
debate is now more one-sided with undisputed
evidence supporting the dangers of global warming
on U.S. agriculture. It will be important for the
USDA to maintain current information and
statistics on the effects of global warming on U.S.
agriculture. There will be a swing on the political
agenda towards global warming now that there is a
democratic led congress. The most accurate
information is coming from the scientists, and the
activists groups will be pushing heavily towards the
human effects. Due to the influence of these two groups, interpreting with an open mind
and without bias will be important, enabling the USDA to remain focused on the needs of
agriculture in the U.S. and provide for future generations.
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8. i
Canada.com January 31, 2007
ii
epa.gov 1990 through 2004
iii
USDA Economic Research Service December 18th
2000
iv
USDA Economic Research Service December 18th
2000
v
LAWRENCE LIVERMORE NATIONAL LABORATORY May 2, 2006
vi
Epa.gov Emission Facts / epa.gov Green vehicle Guide / suv.org info link