The first part of the disruptive decade looks at exponential s-curves in technology adoption, and what that has done to the renewable energy and battery markets. See part two here: https://www.slideshare.net/KeithTimimi/transportation-evs-avs-and-maritime-disruptive-decade-part-2-jan-2019-129340681/

1. THE DISRUPTIVE DECADE
The Coming Transformation of Technology, Energy and
Transportation that Will Change Everything
Keith Timimi
Chief Innovation Officer, VMLY&R Asia

2. “PEOPLE HAVE
NO IDEA HOW
FAST THINGS
ARE MOVING"
Undisclosed Silicon Valley CEO
ACCELERATING RATE OF CHANGE

4. Not that Moore
MOORE’S LAW

5. Gordon Moore, co-Founder Intel, 1965
Moore's law is the observation
that the number of transistors in
a dense integrated circuit
doubles about every two years.
MOORE’S LAW

6. Transistor Count: 2
Gate Process Length: 1/2 inch
Speed:
Cost Of A Transistor:
2,300 Transistors
10,000 Nanometers
740 KHz (.00074 GHz)
~ $1 (1968)
> 7 Billion Transistors
14 Nanometers
4.80 GHz
~ $.00000024
1958:
2 Transitions
1971
Intel 4004
2018
Intel Core i9-8950HK
MOORE’S LAW

7. MOORE’S LAW
Source: UC Berkeley, Educational Development Center

8. MOORE’S LAW
Source: Needull.com

9. By 2045, $1,000 will
buy you the brainpower
equivalent of all human
brains combined

10. Source: arXiv.org, 2018
GROWTH IN ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
ImageNet training time drops 16x in 18 months

12. Source: National Human Genome Research Institute, 2016
THE COST OF SEQUENCING THE HUMAN GENOME
With your personal genome, we can predict likely medical problems – and prevent them

13. Source: National Human Genome Research Institute, 2016
THE COST OF SEQUENCING THE HUMAN GENOME
With your personal genome, we can predict likely medical problems – and prevent them
The $99
genome will be
commercially
available in 2-4
years.
Mirza Cifric
CEO, Veritas

15. 11% - 81% in 10 Years
11% (Tipping Point)
81%
OUR NEEDS ARE BEING DEMATERIALISED AND DEMONETISED
Across virtually every industry

16. FIFTH AVENUE,
NEW YORK CITY, 1905
Can you find the car?

17. FIFTH AVENUE,
NEW YORK CITY, 1905

18. FIFTH AVENUE,
NEW YORK CITY, 1913
Can you find the horse?

19. FIFTH AVENUE,
NEW YORK CITY, 1913

20. 11% - 81% in 10 Years
Source: Tony Seba, RethinkX.
11% (Tipping Point)
81%
CHANGE IN MARKET SHARE
By Passenger Miles, US, 1905 - 1930

21. HORSE & BUGGY
FORD MODEL T
Source: Tony Seba, RethinkX.
PRICE COMPARABILITY BY 1927
$250 Buys You 6x Speed and Range

22. Traditional Industry Analysts
Have Always Underestimated
The Accelerating Rate of Change

23. ANNUAL SOLAR PANEL
ADDITIONS - GLOBAL
Actual Solar Panel (PV)
Annual Added Capacity
Source: Auke Hoekstra Analysis, IEA, WEO 2017

24. ANNUAL SOLAR PANEL
ADDITIONS - GLOBAL
Actual Solar Panel (PV)
Annual Added Capacity
vs
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Annual Forecasts in the
World Energy Outlooks, 2002 - 2017
Source: Auke Hoekstra Analysis, IEA, WEO 2017

25. ANNUAL SOLAR PANEL
ADDITIONS - GLOBAL
Actual Solar Panel (PV)
Annual Added Capacity
vs
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Annual Forecasts in the
World Energy Outlooks, 2002 - 2018
Source: Auke Hoekstra Analysis, IEA, WEO 2018

26. ANNUAL SOLAR PANEL
ADDITIONS - GLOBAL
Actual Solar Panel (PV)
Annual Added Capacity, 2000 - 2018
vs
International Energy Agency (IEA)
Annual Forecasts in the
World Energy Outlooks, 2002 – 2018
vs
IHS Markit 2019 Forecast
Source: Auke Hoekstra Analysis, IEA, WEO 2018
123 GW
Source: IHS Markit,
2019
Market Diversification:
Solar PV growing in 45
country markets by
>20%

27. So …
When Will Renewables
Be Cheaper than
Fossil Fuels?

28. WIND TURBINES

29. EXPONENTIAL DROP IN WIND POWER COST
Source: Ramez Naam, Singularity University

30. SOLAR PANEL EVOLUTION

31. AS SOLAR PV COSTS DROP EXPONENTIALLY, INSTALLATIONS RISE
EXPONENTIALLY
Source: BlackRock, Market Realist
INSTALLED PANELS UP
303X SINCE 2000
PANEL PRICES DOWN
303X SINCE 1976

32. AS SOLAR PV COSTS DROP EXPONENTIALLY, INSTALLATIONS RISE
EXPONENTIALLY
Source: BlackRock, Market Realist
INSTALLED PANELS UP
303X SINCE 2000
PANEL PRICES DOWN
303X SINCE 1976 $0.23 in 2019
Source: Bloomberg NEF,
2018
“We expect a price drop
of 10% – 15% by the
end of 2019.”

33. FLOATING SOLAR INSTALLATIONS

34. GLOBAL INSTALLED FLOATING PV CAPACITY
Source: World Bank, SERIS, ESMAP 2018

35. GLOBAL INSTALLED FLOATING PV CAPACITY
Source: World Bank, SERIS, ESMAP 2018
13 GW
Of new floating solar PV to be
added in next 5 years
Source: IHS Markit 2019 Forecast

36. COST OF A
COAL-FIRED
POWER PLANT:
6 cents / kWh

37. COST OF A
COAL-FIRED
POWER PLANT:
6 cents / kWh
Current Wind Record
1.77c / kWh: Cenace Mexico
Current Solar Record
1.79c / kWh: Saudi Arabia

38. Ramez Naam, Singularity University, 2018
WELCOME TO THE TERRORDOME

39. Ramez Naam, Singularity University, 2018
WELCOME TO THE TERRORDOME

40. IT IS BECOMING CHEAPER TO BUILD NEW WIND AND SOLAR FARMS
THAN IT IS TO RUN EXISTING COAL PLANTS
Source: Carbon Tracker, 2017

41. IT IS BECOMING CHEAPER TO BUILD NEW WIND AND SOLAR FARMS
THAN IT IS TO RUN EXISTING COAL PLANTS
Source: Carbon Tracker, 2017
Existing Coal Plant
Operating Cost
Build & Run Wind
Operating Cost (LCoE)
Build & Run Solar
Operating Cost (LCoE)
42% of the World’s 6,685 Coal Plants
Run at a Loss
35% of current coal capacity costs more
to run than the cost of new renewables
Source: Carbon Tracker, 2018

42. But don’t we need
coal for intermittency -
when renewables
are not producing?

43. LITHIUM ION BATTERIES

44. LI-ION BATTERY COSTS DROPPING EXPONENTIALLY
Source: Bloomberg NEF, NEO 2014
Learning Rate, Battery vs Solar (2014)
Solar – 24.3%
Battery – 21.6%

45. CHINA LEADS GLOBAL BATTERY MANUFACTURING
Source: Visual Capitalist, 2017

46. CHINA LEADS GLOBAL BATTERY MANUFACTURING
Source: Visual Capitalist, Quartz, 2019
Tesla breaks ground on $100 Billion facility near
Shanghai, Jan 2019

47. CHINA LEADS GLOBAL BATTERY MANUFACTURING
Tesla breaks ground on $100 Billion facility near
Shanghai, Jan 2019
Source: Visual Capitalist, Quartz, 2019