Analysis of ABC News/Washington Post poll results on the 2014 midterm elections and a look ahead to 2016. Produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates and presented by Gary Langer at the annual meeting of the American Association for Public Opinion Research, May 15, 2015, in Hollywood, Florida.

1. Gary Langer
Langer Research Associates
glanger@langerresearch.com
American Association for Public Opinion Research
Hollywood, Florida
Friday, May 15, 2015

2. Partisanship

3. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Unleaned Party ID, 1981-2003
Annual Averages
ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls

4. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Unleaned Party ID, 1981-2003
Annual Averages
ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls

5. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Democrats
Republicans
Independents
Unleaned Party ID, 1981-2014
Annual Averages
ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls

7. Economic conditions

8. Jan-07
Apr-07
Jul-07
Oct-07
Jan-08
Apr-08
Jul-08
Oct-08
Jan-09
Apr-09
Jul-09
Oct-09
Jan-10
Apr-10
Jul-10
Oct-10
Jan-11
Apr-11
Jul-11
Oct-11
Jan-12
Apr-12
Jul-12
Oct-12
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Unemployment 2007-2014
Jan. 2007-Oct. 2014
Bureau of Labor Statistics
4.6
10.0
5.7

9. 10.8
12.2
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0 1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Underemployment since 1994
Percent unemployed or marginally attached (U6)
Bureau of Labor Statistics

10. 0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
1948
1950
1952
1954
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
2014
Long-term Unemployment, 1948-2014
Percentage of unemployed who have been jobless 27 weeks or more
Bureau of Labor Statistics

11. -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25%
Real Median Weekly Earnings
1979-2012
Bureau of Labor Statistics
No college degree
Bachelor’s degree and higher
68% of the U.S.
population
-9.1%
22.6%

12. 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
11/2/14
8/3/14
5/4/14
2/2/14
11/3/13
8/4/13
5/5/13
2/3/13
11/4/12
8/5/12
5/6/12
2/5/12
11/6/11
8/7/11
5/8/11
2/6/11
11/7/10
8/8/10
5/9/10
2/8/10
11/8/09
8/9/09
5/10/09
2/8/09
11/9/08
8/10/08
5/11/08
2/11/08
11/11/07
8/12/07
5/13/07
2/12/07
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
2007 to Nov. 2, 2014

13. 80%
82%
84%
86%
88%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
201420122010200820062004200220001998199619941992199019881986
Axis Title
CCI yearly average
Re-election rate
Consumer Comfort and House Re-election Rate
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
Correlation: .74

14. ABC/Post pre-election polls

15. ABC News “Discontent Index”
 Economic subindex: Worse off under Obama, think
Americans’ standard of living is in long-term decline,
worried about economy’s future (α: .71).
 Plus: Presidential disapproval; dissatisfaction with the
political system overall; worry about terrorism, worry
about Ebola, oppose gay marriage
 Full index α: .77

16. Predicting House Vote
 IVs: Discontent Index, age, gender, race, education,
income, region, evangelical, party ID, ideology
 R-square: .67
 Top predictors: PID and Discontent Index

17. Significant predictors of support for GOP
House candidates among likely voters
Beta
Democrat -.34*
Discontent Index .27*
Republican .21*
Race: white .14*
Ideology .14*
________________________________
R-square = .67
*p < .001.
Predicting House Vote

18. Discontent Index - Groups
-- Discontent terciles --
Low Medium High
Vote preference: Dem-Rep 84-11% 36-58% 9-81%
Country on wrong track 26 79 99
Anti-incumbent 44 59 68
Women 52 49 59
Democrats 64 26 7
Republicans 5 35 52
Independents 26 32 34
Liberals 54 14 3
Moderates 36 44 26
Conservatives (Net) 10 40 69
Very conservatives 3 17 37
College graduates 49 44 29
Non-graduates 51 56 71
Whites 71 75 89
Blacks 16 11 3
Latinos 8 9 3

32. GP-RV-LV among groups
All RV LV
Democrats 31% 32 32
Republicans 24 25 31
Independents 36 35 31
Whites 67 71 78
Nonwhites 33 28 22
Conservatives 35 36 40
Moderates 37 38 35
Liberals 26 23 24
High school/less 41 38 29
Income <$50K 55 51 43

33. Vote pref. by group
House pref. House pref.
%LVs Dem-Rep D-R %LVs Dem-Rep D-R
All LVs 100% 44-50% -6 Govt’s ability to
deal with probs:
Men 47 39-56 -17 Better 11% 85-9 +76
Women 53 49-44 +5 Same 26 65-30 +35
Worse 63 28-65 -37
Democrats 33 92- 5 +87 Somewhat 19 41-51 -10
Republicans 30 3-96 -93 Much 44 23-71 -48
Independents 31 37-54 -17
State of economy
Liberals 18 88-11 +77 Good NET 27 82-14 +68
Moderates 39 52-40 +12 Not so good 42 40-54 -14
Conservatives 40 17-78 -61 Poor 30 18-75 -57
Whites 76 35-59 -24 Nation’s economy
Nonwhites 23 74-21 +53 Getting better 31 76-19 +57
Staying the same 47 40-55 -15
Right direction 26 83-13 +70 Getting worse 31 18-75 -57
Wrong track 70 28-65 -37

34. Further turnout effects
Trust: Democratic Party-Republican Party
Among likely voters Among reg. voters
Health care 43-43% = 45-38% +7D
Country’s main issues 38-46 +8R 38-41 +3R
Immigration 36-47 +11R 38-42 +4R
Economy 36-49 +13R 36-44 +8R
Federal deficit 33-50 +17R 33-46 +13R
Conflict with ISIS 26-48 +22R 26-45 +19R
Helping the middle class 46-38 +8D 49-33 +16D
Women’s issues 52-30 +22D 53-26 +27D
Avg. +5R +<0.5D

35. 38%
40%
35%
39%
35%36%
33%
35%
33%
36%
26%
28% 29% 28% 28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Democrat Republican Independent
Voter Turnout by Party ID
Exit polls

36. Ahead

37. 20
25
30
35
40
45
50
4/26/15
1/25/15
10/26/14
7/27/14
4/27/14
1/26/14
10/27/13
7/28/13
4/28/13
1/27/13
10/28/12
7/29/12
4/29/12
1/29/12
10/30/11
7/31/11
5/1/11
1/30/11
10/31/10
8/1/10
5/2/10
1/31/10
11/1/09
8/2/09
5/3/09
2/2/09
11/2/08
8/3/08
5/4/08
2/3/08
11/4/07
8/5/07
5/6/07
2/4/07
Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index
2007 to present
2014 Election

43. GOP groups
Among reg. voters who are Republicans or
Republican-leaning independents
Bush Walker Cruz Huckabee Paul Rubio Christie
Mods 31% 8 8 6 8 5 10
V.cons 8 17 20 11 9 12 3
E.W.P. 24 14 17 14 6 7 1

45. Clinton-Bush groups
Among reg. voters
Clinton-Bush Diff.
Women 59-36% +23
Men 46-48 -2
Under 40 66-28 +38
Seniors 43-53 -10
Whites 42-53 -11
Nonwhites NET 78-16 +62
Blacks 93- 4 +89
White women w/college 57-34 +23
All other whites 38-57 -19

46. 90% 89% 88%
85%
87%
83%
81%
77%
74%
72%
10% 11% 12%
15%
13%
17%
19%
23%
26% 28%
1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012
Racial Composition of the National Electorate
National exit poll data
Whites Nonwhites

47. Issues: PxP scores
Gov’t action on climate change
Support/important 59/68
Oppose/important 31/39
No-new-tax pledge
Support/important 23/74
Oppose/important 72/40
Compromise/partisan agenda
Prefer compromise/important 58/70
Prefer partisan/important 37/75
ACA
Keep ACA/important 49/78
Repeal ACA/important 45/76
Path to citizenship
Support/important 51/56
Oppose/important 45/62
Deal with Iran
Support/important 49/44
Oppose /important 42/60
PxP score
All Dems Reps Inds
29 58 -12 29
-25 -33 -21 -20
15 21 1 22
3 55 -63 5
3 30 -39 4
2 24 -29 5

48. And back to the economy…
U.S. economic system All Clinton-Bush
Favors the wealthy 67% 57-37%
Is fair to most 27 25-72

49. While we’re talking…
ABC/Post poll Election outcome
D-R D-R
2014 44-50% 46-52%
2012 50-47 51-47
2010 45-49 45-51
2008 53-44 53-46
2006 51-45 52-44
2004 48-49 48-51

50. Source reports
ABC News exit poll analysis:
 A Fresh Blast of Discontent Reshapes the Political Order (11/5/14)
 http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/11/a-fresh-blast-of-discontent-reshapes-the-political-order/
ABC News/Washington Post poll analyses:
 Climate Change, Tax Pledge Among Issues to Watch in 2016 (4/3/15)
 http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/climate-change-tax-pledge-issues-watch-2016-poll/story?id=30067623
 Clinton’s Popularity Declines, but Still Beats her GOP Rivals’ (4/2/15)
 http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/clintons-popularity-declines-beats-gop-rivals-poll/story?id=30052071
 Economic, Political Discontent Make for a Midterm Double Punch (10/28/14)
 http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1164a1ElectionUpdate.pdf
 Record Disapproval for Dems in Congress; GOPers, Congress Overall are Even Lower (10/26/14)
 http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1144a46CongressionalApproval.pdf
 What's Bugging Voters? Plenty: ABC News Discontent Index (10/16/14)
 http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2014/10/whats-bugging-voters-plenty/
 Trouble Looms for Obama, Democrats with Election Day 2014 Approaching (10/15/14)
 http://www.langerresearch.com/uploads/1163a2The2014Midterms.pdf

51. American Association for Public Opinion Research
Hollywood, Florida
Friday, May 15, 2015
Gary Langer
Langer Research Associates
glanger@langerresearch.com