Recomendados
Recomendados
Más contenido relacionado
La actualidad más candente
La actualidad más candente (20)
Similar a The 2016 Election - How and why it's President Trump
Similar a The 2016 Election - How and why it's President Trump (20)
Más de LangerResearch
Más de LangerResearch (20)
Último
Último (13)
The 2016 Election - How and why it's President Trump
- 1. The 2016 election: How and why it’s President Trump Sofi Sinozich, Gregory Holyk, Gary Langer Langer Research Associates
- 2. Setting the scene ▪ Partisanship and polarization ▪ Long-term economic trends
- 3. 0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 201620142012201020082006200420022000199819961994199219901988198619841982 Party ID excluding independents Party ID including independents Party Identification and Ideology: Annual Average Correlations, 1981-2016 ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls
- 4. 22.7% -10.3% -15% -10% -5% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% Real median weekly earnings 1979-2014 Bureau of Labor Statistics Bachelor’s degree and higher 68% of the U.S. population age 25+ No college degree
- 5. The promise of government ▪ Security ▪ Liberty ▪ Opportunity for prosperity
- 7. When it’s not delivered… ▪ People get upset ▪ They reject the status quo ▪ They seek alternatives in leadership ▪ Social/values divisions gain salience
- 8. What it looks like ▪ In-group retrenchment; suspicion of “others” ▪ Acceptability of radical alternatives ▪ Bitterness and mutual incomprehension ▪ Hyper-motivated reasoning
- 9. Them
- 10. ▪ The two most unpopular major-party candidates ▪ The first female major-party presidential candidate ▪ Low enthusiasm; high negative voting ▪ Extreme partisanship ▪ Long-running and late-breaking controversies alike ▪ Flawed personal attributes ▪ Little issue differentiation ▪ Sharp class-based division, populism vs status quo
- 11. 34% 25% 18% 13% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Donald Trump Ted Cruz Marco Rubio John Kasich 2016 Republican Primary Preference Among registered leaned Republicans ABC News/Washington Post polls
- 12. Economic discontent Preference for authority Populist/ prefer an outsider Pushback against other groups Trump support Modeling Trump support: Primaries
- 13. Economic discontent Preference for authority Populist/ prefer an outsider Pushback against other groups Support Trump vs. Clinton Modeling Trump support: General Better/worse under Obama
- 14. All else equal do you think it’s more important for a child: a. (To be independent) or (to have respect for elders)? b. (To be curious) or (to have good manners)? c. (To be obedient) or (to be self-reliant)? d. (To be considerate) or (to be well behaved)?
- 15. 49% 42% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Mar-15 May-15 Jul-15 Sep-15 Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 2016 Democratic Primary Preference Among registered leaned Democrats ABC News/Washington Post polls Hillary Clinton Bernie Sanders
- 16. 61% 50% 48% 71% 77% 62% 37% 49% 50% 28% 21% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Women Men Whites Nonwhites NET Blacks Hispanics Clinton Sanders Democratic Primary Vote by Groups 2016 exit polls
- 17. 28% 50% 65% 71%71% 49% 34% 27% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 18-29 (16%) 30-44 (23%) 45-64 (40%) 65+ (21%) Clinton Sanders Democratic Primary Vote by Age 2016 exit polls
- 18. On race… Which of these do you think is the bigger problem in this country – (blacks and Hispanics losing out because of preferences for whites), or (whites losing out because of preferences for blacks and Hispanics)? Blacks/Hispanics Whites Clinton supporters 57% 16% Trump supporters 16% 44%
- 19. On race… Clinton supporters Trump supporters Think … have too little influence in society Women 58% 21% Minorities 67% 17% Think … have too much influence in society Men 50% 20% Whites 53% 8% Minorities 9% 38%
- 20. In summary ▪ Controlling for demographics, partisanship, ideology and presidential approval… ▪ Seeing too little influence for whites/men and too much influence for minorities/women independently predicted support for Trump ▪ (Similar effect size to partisanship, ideology, race – outpaced only by Obama disapproval)
- 21. 47% 39% 49% 49% 48%47% 48% 45% 44% 46% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Economy Corruption Terrorism Health care Immigration Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Clinton vs. Trump: Issues Among likely voters ABC News/Washington Post poll (29%) (17%) (15%) (13%) (5%)
- 22. 95% 97% 90% 90% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% Clinton supporters Trump supporters Overall Strongly Unfavorable Views of the Opposing Candidate Among likely voters ABC News/Washington Post poll, October 2016
- 23. 42%42% 46% 51% 45% 51% 54%54% 56% 51% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 11/4/1610/23/168/4/167/14/165/19/16 Negative Support Among likely voters ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls Clinton supporters: % against Trump rather than for Clinton Trump supporters: % against Clinton rather than for Trump
- 24. 68% 14% 57% 38% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Has Has not Biased Not biased Trump and Women Among registered voters ABC News/Washington Post polls Has Trump probably made unwanted Is Trump biased against sexual advances? (Oct. 13) women and minorities? (Sept. 8)
- 25. 86% 47% 46% 81% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% Leaned Dems Leaned Reps Leaned Dems Leaned Reps Trump and Women II Among registered voters Think Trump probably made Say it makes no difference unwanted sexual advances in your vote Among leaned Republicans who said Trump probably made unwanted sexual advances, 72 percent also said it made no difference in their vote. In September 1998, 66 percent of leaned Democrats thought Bill Clinton lied under oath. Among them, 78 percent approved of his job performance, and 63 percent saw him favorably. Motivated reasoning
- 26. So, about that horse race…
- 27. 48%47%47% 46% 46% 50% 46% 48% 46% 43%44% 46% 45% 38% 44% 39% 3% 4%3%3%3% 5%5%6% 1%2%2%2%2%2%1%3% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016 General Election Vote Preference Among likely voters ABC News and ABC News/Washington Post polls Hillary Clinton Donald Trump Gary Johnson Jill Stein Final two weeks
- 29. Why do we do pre- election polls?
- 30. Why do we do pre- election polls? ▪ To understand how and why we pick our leaders
- 31. Why do we do pre- election polls? ▪ To understand how and why we pick our leaders ▪ To play fortune-teller
- 32. That said… Major party margin ABC or ABC/Post Actual vote Diff. 2016 4 pts 2 2 2012 3 4 1 2008 9 7 2 2004 1 3 2 2000 3 0 3 1996 12 8 4 1992 7 6 1 1988 8 7 1 1984 15 18 3 Average 2
- 33. 60%59%59% 57% 50% 59% 54% 29%30%30%29% 40% 36% 42% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 10/28/1610/27/1610/26/169/8/165/19/163/6/161/24/16 Who Do You Expect to Win? Among likely voters ABC News/Washington Post polls Hillary Clinton Donald Trump 5/19/16 and previous among general population
- 34. 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% Won popular vote, lost electoral college: 1876, 1888, 2000
- 42. Our alternative ▪ MRP on our probability-based tracking poll ▫ Correctly predicts 4 out of 5 previous presidential elections – including 2016 State poll ABC/MRP Outcome WI Marquette Clinton +6 Trump +1 Trump +1 NC Quinnipiac Clinton +2 Trump +6 Trump +4 PA Monmouth Clinton +4 Trump +2 Trump +1 MI RCP avg. Clinton +3.4 Clinton +1 Trump +0.2 NH UNH Clinton +11 Clinton +2 Clinton +0.3 MN Star Trib. Clinton +8 Clinton +3 Clinton +2
- 43. The road ahead
- 44. 70%72%74% 77% 82%83% 87%85% 88%89% 30%28%26% 23% 18%17% 13%15% 12%11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 2016201220082004200019961992198819841980 % of All Voters – Whites vs. Nonwhites Exit polls Whites Nonwhites
- 45. 70%72%74% 77% 82%83% 87%85% 88%89% 30%28%26% 23% 18%17% 13%15% 12%11% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 2016201220082004200019961992198819841980 % of All Voters – Whites vs. Nonwhites Exit polls Whites Nonwhites Nonwhite vote, 1980 to present: 71% to 82% D (2016, 74%)
- 46. 45% 42% 31% 49% 56%55% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016201220082004200019961992198819841980 D vs. R Vote, College Whites Exit polls
- 47. 28%36% 67% 57% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016201220082004200019961992198819841980 D vs. R Vote, Non-College Whites Exit polls
- 48. 34%36% 65% 37%36% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 2016201220082004200019961992198819841980 Non-college whites College-educated whites % of All Voters - Whites by Education Exit polls
- 49. Key lesson? Discontent demands change
- 50. 15% 39% 21% 20% 14% 83% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% Empathy Change Experience Judgment Clinton Trump Candidate Attributes 2016 exit poll Most important quality in deciding vote… Vote among “change” voters
- 51. 12% 34% 20% 30% 89% 9% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% 110% 120% Empathy Change Experience Values Obama McCain Candidate Attributes 2008 exit poll Most important quality in deciding vote… Vote among “change” voters
Notas del editor
- LRA: we do the ABC News/Washington Post polls Overarching summary of what we observed in our work leading up to the election, ex. 19-day pre-election tracking poll Exit poll results Other political polls conducted throughout 2015 and 2016
- Two things we saw going in – both of which ended up being important High levels of p&p Despite econ improving in the aggregate, longer-term economic trends would impact what gains would be seen on an individual level Not going into detail, just “quick hits”
- In our data Double what we saw in early 80s
- With that, going back to basics What people really want out of government in the US
- Reinforcement of in-group ties Radical alternatives to status quo become acceptable Lack of cooperation, understanding, increased resentment All of this we could see coming ahead of time, and it all points in one direction But we thought there might be a wrench in the works…
- In case you forgot what happened Class division not based on income per se (as it may have been in previous elections) but a cultural divide Starting with Trump…
- Real stability in his support throughout the cycle, following his announcement Never consensus choice, but it wasn’t necessary Because of the breaks, we could examine Trump vs non Trump voters
- Two strands First: economic discontent and populism, looking for outsider Second: appeal of “Trumpismo” and resentment of other groups Strong leader going to help you regain status Pushback in two ways: approval of policies (deportation and muslim ban) and losing out due to pref (affirmative action)
- That was mostly same in the general But evaluations of Obama (whether things have improved or gotten worse under his term) best predictor – not relevant in primary because of GOP opinion of Obama universally neg Just to reference
- Battery of questions on authoritarianism Child rearing That’s what we saw on this side of the aisle…
- Large lead that narrowed considerably 60+ and negligible support to approaching 50-50 That said as we all know the Clinton and Sanders camps weren’t evenly distributed
- Exit poll data Women vs men Nonwhites + blacks vs. whites (even)
- Similarly strong divergence on 18-29 but for Sanders (and 65+ for Clinton) Clinton/Sanders split based on demographics Thought really interesting based on these backgrounds Going back to our “losing out” question based on preference in the general
- Jumping back to the losing out/affirmative action question Fundamental difference in worldview Vol’d into both/neither
- Similarly, on separate question, influence in society Profile of Clinton voters vs. Trump voters
- In a separate model from previous Didn’t get washed out with controls Base divisions in the electorate Resulting in a race that’s not about issues so much…
- Running essentially even on the issues - Key: economy
- Two of the most unpopular candidates in history Just magnified when looking at other’s supporters Unprecedented Compare to: Obama supporters strongly unfavorable toward Romney: 70% Romney supporters strongly unfavorably toward Obama: 74% Obama supporters strongly unfavorable toward McCain: 57% McCain supporters strongly unfavorable toward Obama: 72%
- W/ this level of antipathy = people were not going to be shaken Saw this in people’s reactions to Trump’s “hot mic” incident
- Split up unwanted advances by party
- Rationalizing voting against X candidate who they dislike Processing developments completely differently based on end goal (chosen candidate)
- SWAP TO GREG