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Agenda
1
HOST:
Isaac Roseboom
Head of Insight
What the best games know
that the rest don’t
AgendaIntroduction
• Frictionless and interactive on-boarding
• A hierarchical approach to game loop at session, day and week level
• Aggressive rewarding process that constantly gives player momentum
Last few years has seen radical improvement in retention mechanics in F2P :
GARDENSCAPES STAR WARS GALAXY OF HEROES CONTEST OF CHAMPIONS
Strong task system to direct player Escalating rewards for daily play Strong elder player loop
AgendaF2P monetization
• ‘GOOD’ retention (e.g. D1 retention of 40% and D7 of 15%) will give an ‘average’ player lifetime of 15
days
• So if you want a $1.50 LTV (i.e. $1 net LTV) need an ARPDAU of 10¢ **
• In the deltaDNA platform, currently fewer than 30% of games would achieve this.
30%
However running a profitable F2P game is still difficult…
**All revenue figures gross (i.e. before app store cut)
AgendaWhy games struggles?
1. Too generous to non-payers
2. IAP is too cheap
3. No drive for spenders to spend again
4. Not enough Whales
Why do games with good retention struggle to monetize?
AgendadeltaDNA study
• 100 best performing games
• Roughly even split across genres: Puzzle, Action, Strategy
• Just iOS
• Just US players
Can use deltaDNA data across many games to answer
these questions
Charts that follow are for:
AgendaToo generous
Day 7 Retention vs. Day 7 Spender%
• Day 7 Spenders: %Players active on
day 7 who have spent at any point
• High Day 7 retention no guarantee of
good monetization!
• 38% of games with D7 > 10% have
10c ARPDAU
• 54% of games with D7 Spenders >
10% have 10c ARPDAU
AgendaIAP is too cheap
Conversion does not decrease if minimum price point is increased
But… ARPDAU increases dramatically
Does not include starter bundles / promotions – just standard pricing
Price point lower than $2 devalues game significantly
Q3 = 75th percentile of games studied; M = median of games, Q1 = 25th percentile of games
AgendaNo repeat spending
Hard to get above 10¢ ARPDAU
without at least 3 IAPs / spender
(lifetime)
AgendaNot enough Whales
Hard to get to 10¢ ARPDAU without at
least 5% of spenders being Whales
Whale > $100/month
AgendaGetting to 10¢ ARPDAU
If you want 10¢ ARPDAU, you need:
• Day 7 retention > 10%
• Payers on day 7 > 10%
• Min. price point > $2
• At least 3 spends / spender
• At least 5% whales ( > $100 lifetime spend)
16% of games achieve all this
All that do have ARPDAU > 10¢; 30¢ mean ARPDAU
How can this be achieved? (via analytics of course!)
Derive basic KPI goals from these charts
**All revenue figures gross (i.e. before app store cut)
AgendaHow to do it?
• Need at least 1,000 spenders to get any answers from
analytics
• At 2% conversion rate, this means 50k players
(i.e. serious soft-launch with marketing spend)
• Want to get basics right before this:
‣ Core game must drive committed players towards IAP
‣ IAP pricing should be well thought-out
‣ Game must drive repeat conversion
Recipe to build a high LTV game
AgendaCarrot vs stick
Either way, it must be deeply integrated into the core game loop
Design: driving conversion
Premium experience
Flexible play
Pros: Naturally leads to repeat purchase
Cons: Hard to design
Resource pinch points
Pay walls
Pros: Easy to construct
Cons: Increases churn
REWARD PUNISH
AgendaGood monetisation strategies
CLASH ROYALE
‘Soft’ pinch points
BEST FIENDS FOREVER
Integrated into core reward loop
GOLF CLASH
Well balanced bundle offers Gacha and collection mechanics
STAR WARS: GALAXY OF HEROES
AgendaBuilding analytics into design
Three step process to drive design-analytics cycle
1. KPIs (is there a problem?)
2. Shallow (where is there a problem?)
3. Deep (what is the problem?)
Developing these mechanics via analytics
Agenda
STEP STEP STEP
KPI SHALLOW DEEP
Example: Conversion
Daily conversion < 1%
Agenda
STEP STEP STEP
KPI SHALLOW DEEP
Example: Repeat spend
Lifetime conversion > 2%
but…
Daily conversion < 1%
Spends by level Spender economy
balance
Agenda
STEP STEP STEP
KPI SHALLOW DEEP
Example: Pricing
Is my minimum price < $2
Daily conversion > 1%
but…
ARPPU = $8
Yes
Agenda
STEP STEP STEP
KPI SHALLOW DEEP
Example: Whales
Lifetime conversion > 2%
Daily conversion > 1%
Min. price point > $2
but…
ARPDAU = 6c
Most whales build up via daily
spend of moderate amounts Look at player spending patterns
AgendaUsing analytics
• Ability to track and analyze player behavior at granular level
• Ability to build custom reports and track bespoke KPIs over time
• Ability to test quickly and report detailed impact of tests (not just p-
value)
How analytics technology can support decision making?
AgendaConclusion
Designing a successful game is not easy!
Using analytics it is possible to identify and
understand underperforming aspects and improve
BUT…
HOST:
Isaac Roseboom
Head of Insight
Thank you!

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GDC 2017 - What the best games know that the rest don’t

  • 2. HOST: Isaac Roseboom Head of Insight What the best games know that the rest don’t
  • 3. AgendaIntroduction • Frictionless and interactive on-boarding • A hierarchical approach to game loop at session, day and week level • Aggressive rewarding process that constantly gives player momentum Last few years has seen radical improvement in retention mechanics in F2P : GARDENSCAPES STAR WARS GALAXY OF HEROES CONTEST OF CHAMPIONS Strong task system to direct player Escalating rewards for daily play Strong elder player loop
  • 4. AgendaF2P monetization • ‘GOOD’ retention (e.g. D1 retention of 40% and D7 of 15%) will give an ‘average’ player lifetime of 15 days • So if you want a $1.50 LTV (i.e. $1 net LTV) need an ARPDAU of 10¢ ** • In the deltaDNA platform, currently fewer than 30% of games would achieve this. 30% However running a profitable F2P game is still difficult… **All revenue figures gross (i.e. before app store cut)
  • 5. AgendaWhy games struggles? 1. Too generous to non-payers 2. IAP is too cheap 3. No drive for spenders to spend again 4. Not enough Whales Why do games with good retention struggle to monetize?
  • 6. AgendadeltaDNA study • 100 best performing games • Roughly even split across genres: Puzzle, Action, Strategy • Just iOS • Just US players Can use deltaDNA data across many games to answer these questions Charts that follow are for:
  • 7. AgendaToo generous Day 7 Retention vs. Day 7 Spender% • Day 7 Spenders: %Players active on day 7 who have spent at any point • High Day 7 retention no guarantee of good monetization! • 38% of games with D7 > 10% have 10c ARPDAU • 54% of games with D7 Spenders > 10% have 10c ARPDAU
  • 8. AgendaIAP is too cheap Conversion does not decrease if minimum price point is increased But… ARPDAU increases dramatically Does not include starter bundles / promotions – just standard pricing Price point lower than $2 devalues game significantly Q3 = 75th percentile of games studied; M = median of games, Q1 = 25th percentile of games
  • 9. AgendaNo repeat spending Hard to get above 10¢ ARPDAU without at least 3 IAPs / spender (lifetime)
  • 10. AgendaNot enough Whales Hard to get to 10¢ ARPDAU without at least 5% of spenders being Whales Whale > $100/month
  • 11. AgendaGetting to 10¢ ARPDAU If you want 10¢ ARPDAU, you need: • Day 7 retention > 10% • Payers on day 7 > 10% • Min. price point > $2 • At least 3 spends / spender • At least 5% whales ( > $100 lifetime spend) 16% of games achieve all this All that do have ARPDAU > 10¢; 30¢ mean ARPDAU How can this be achieved? (via analytics of course!) Derive basic KPI goals from these charts **All revenue figures gross (i.e. before app store cut)
  • 12. AgendaHow to do it? • Need at least 1,000 spenders to get any answers from analytics • At 2% conversion rate, this means 50k players (i.e. serious soft-launch with marketing spend) • Want to get basics right before this: ‣ Core game must drive committed players towards IAP ‣ IAP pricing should be well thought-out ‣ Game must drive repeat conversion Recipe to build a high LTV game
  • 13. AgendaCarrot vs stick Either way, it must be deeply integrated into the core game loop Design: driving conversion Premium experience Flexible play Pros: Naturally leads to repeat purchase Cons: Hard to design Resource pinch points Pay walls Pros: Easy to construct Cons: Increases churn REWARD PUNISH
  • 14. AgendaGood monetisation strategies CLASH ROYALE ‘Soft’ pinch points BEST FIENDS FOREVER Integrated into core reward loop GOLF CLASH Well balanced bundle offers Gacha and collection mechanics STAR WARS: GALAXY OF HEROES
  • 15. AgendaBuilding analytics into design Three step process to drive design-analytics cycle 1. KPIs (is there a problem?) 2. Shallow (where is there a problem?) 3. Deep (what is the problem?) Developing these mechanics via analytics
  • 16. Agenda STEP STEP STEP KPI SHALLOW DEEP Example: Conversion Daily conversion < 1%
  • 17. Agenda STEP STEP STEP KPI SHALLOW DEEP Example: Repeat spend Lifetime conversion > 2% but… Daily conversion < 1% Spends by level Spender economy balance
  • 18. Agenda STEP STEP STEP KPI SHALLOW DEEP Example: Pricing Is my minimum price < $2 Daily conversion > 1% but… ARPPU = $8 Yes
  • 19. Agenda STEP STEP STEP KPI SHALLOW DEEP Example: Whales Lifetime conversion > 2% Daily conversion > 1% Min. price point > $2 but… ARPDAU = 6c Most whales build up via daily spend of moderate amounts Look at player spending patterns
  • 20. AgendaUsing analytics • Ability to track and analyze player behavior at granular level • Ability to build custom reports and track bespoke KPIs over time • Ability to test quickly and report detailed impact of tests (not just p- value) How analytics technology can support decision making?
  • 21. AgendaConclusion Designing a successful game is not easy! Using analytics it is possible to identify and understand underperforming aspects and improve BUT…
  • 22. HOST: Isaac Roseboom Head of Insight Thank you!

Notas del editor

  1. (i.e. why do they have low ARPDAU?) (2 slides per topic +1 intro = 9 slides)
  2. (i.e. why do they have low ARPDAU?) (2 slides per topic +1 intro = 9 slides)
  3. DeltaDNA is the only deep data analytics platform for games. We optimize games by bringing all your data into a high performance environment and exposing it for interrogation. This means you can achieve incredibly accurate insight and build high definition segments for precise, realtime player marketing. We have recently launched our new ad mediation service, SmartAds, that takes player segmentation further and provides independent ad mediation and cascading to optimize eCPM from a custom-definable network of ad providers. It applies machine learning to optimize ad frequency on a user-by-user basis, so only ad-responsive players receive ads, optimizing revenues.