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                       National Guard
                      Black Belt Training

                           Module 20

                         Data Collection

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CPI Roadmap – Measure
                                                           8-STEP PROCESS
                                                                                                    6. See
   1.Validate          2. Identify           3. Set         4. Determine        5. Develop                          7. Confirm        8. Standardize
                                                                                                   Counter-
      the             Performance         Improvement           Root             Counter-                            Results            Successful
                                                                                                   Measures
    Problem               Gaps              Targets             Cause           Measures                            & Process            Processes
                                                                                                   Through

        Define               Measure                         Analyze                         Improve                          Control


                                                                       TOOLS
                                                                  •Process Mapping
                                    ACTIVITIES
                  •   Map Current Process / Go & See              •Process Cycle Efficiency/TOC
                  •   Identify Key Input, Process, Output Metrics •Little’s Law
                  •   Develop Operational Definitions             •Operational Definitions
                  •   Develop Data Collection Plan                •Data Collection Plan
                  •   Validate Measurement System                 •Statistical Sampling
                  •   Collect Baseline Data                       •Measurement System Analysis
                  •   Identify Performance Gaps                   •TPM
                  •   Estimate Financial/Operational Benefits     •Generic Pull
                  •   Determine Process Stability/Capability      •Setup Reduction
                  •   Complete Measure Tollgate                   •Control Charts
                                                                  •Histograms
                                                                  •Constraint Identification
                                                                  •Process Capability
                       Note: Activities and tools vary by project. Lists provided here are not necessarily all-inclusive. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
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 Learning Objectives
          Determine what to measure and why
          Prepare plans to collect output, process and/or input
           data
          Apply sampling techniques, as needed
          Construct forms and test data collection procedures
          Refine data collection
          Implement data collection plan




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 What Is a Measure?
          A quantified evaluation of characteristics
           and/or level of performance based on
           observable data
          Examples include:
             Length of time (speed, age)
             Size (length, height, weight)
             Dollars (costs, sales revenue, profits)
             Counts of characteristics or “attributes” (types of
              customer, property size, gender)
             Counts of defects (number of errors, late checkouts,
              complaints)


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 Why Measure?

         Establish the current performance level (baseline)
         Determine priorities for action – and whether or not
          to take action
               Substantiate the magnitude of the problem
         To gain insight into potential causes of problems and
          changes in the process
         Prevent problems and predict future performance
                      To gain knowledge about the problem,
                        process, customer or organization

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                       National Guard
                      Black Belt Training

                          Determine
                        What to Measure


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 What Do We Need to Know?
          The first step in the creation of any data collection
           plan is to decide what you need to know about your
           process and where to find measurement points
             What data is needed to “baseline” our problem?
             What “upstream” factors might affect the
              process/problem?
             What do we plan to do with the data after it has been
              gathered?
             Do we have a balance between Output and
              Input/Process measures?



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 Deciding “What and Where”

                                  Process


         Input                                               Output



      Preparing the SIPOC diagram and a more detailed process
         map can help a team select its measures
      Choosing     good measures requires a clear understanding of the
         definitions of and relationships between Output, Process, and
         Input measures

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 “X” and “Y” Variables
                        Y      = f ( X1 + X2 + X3 + . . . . . . . . . Xn )
       Output                              Input/Process

     Final Score in             First           Second                Third           Fourth
                    =                     +                 +                    +               +           Overtime
       Basketball              Quarter          Quarter              Quarter          Quarter
         Game                                                                                                 Score
                               Score             Score               Score            Score


       Customer =           Front Desk          Check In              Room             Room                   Check Out
                                          +                     +                +                   +
      Satisfaction            Courtesy           Ease                Comfort          Service                    Ease



     Loan Process           Application        Credit &                Risk            Review &                Loan Service
      Cycle Time =          Data Entry    +    Collateral   +       Assessment   +
                                                                                     Approval Time
                                                                                                         +
                                                                                                                  Time
                              Time            Check Time               Time


                          Generally, you can influence some of the Xs but not all. CPI
                        projects will generally address those Xs which can be influenced
                                    and which have the greatest impact on Y.
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 Measuring Business Processes
                          X - PREDICTOR                              Y - RESULTS
                       (Leading) MEASURES                        (Lagging) MEASURES

            (X)                             (X)                            (Y)

          Input                        Process                         Output
      • Arrival Time                                                • Customer
      • Accuracy                                                      Satisfaction
      • Cost                                                        • Total
                                                                      Defects
      • Key Specs
                                                                    • Cycle Time
                                                                    • Cost Profit



                                       Time Per Task
     How well do these (Xs)…         In-Process Errors   …predict this (Y)?
                                       Labor Hours
                                        Exceptions
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 Categories of Performance Metrics
        Developing Input, Process and Output metrics around the Voice of the
         Customer (VOC) and Voice of the Business (VOB) process performance
         needs is a good starting point for determining what to measure
                       Product or Service Features, Attributes, Dimensions, Characteristics
                       Relating to the Function of the Product or Service, Reliability, Availability,
           Quality     Taste, Effectiveness - Also Freedom from Defects, Rework or Scrap
                       (Derived Primarily from the Customer - VOC)
                       Process Cost Efficiency, Prices to Consumer (Initial Plus Life Cycle), Repair
             Cost      Costs, Purchase Price, Financing Terms, Depreciation, Residual Value
                       (Derived Primarily from the Business - VOB)
                       Lead Times, Delivery Times, Turnaround Times, Setup Times, Cycle
            Speed      Times, Delays (Derived equally from the Customer or the Business
                       – VOC/VOB)
          Service      Service Requirements, After-Purchase Reliability, Parts Availability, Service,
         and Safety    Warranties, Maintainability, Customer-Required Maintenance, Product
                       Liability, Product/Service Safety

                       Ethical Business Conduct, Environmental Impact, Business Risk
         Stewardship
                       Management, Regulatory and Legal Compliance

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 Output Measures
          Referred to as “Y” data. Output Metrics quantify the
           overall performance of the process, including:
             How well customer needs and requirements were
              met (typically Quality & Speed requirements), and
             How well business needs and requirements were met
              (typically Cost & Speed requirements)
          Output measures provide the best overall barometer of
           process performance
          Focus on one Primary Output (Y) metric at a time. Use
           Secondary Y metrics to “keep you honest”
           Example: If the Primary Y is to improve cycle time, the Secondary Y could
           monitor defects to make sure they also improve or at least don’t get worse!
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 Typical Output Measures
                                                   Possible Output
          Process Type               Output         (Y) Measures
                                              Metal chemistry/thickness/
                         Ammo                 propellant weight/ballistics
          Product/                            Number of missing/incorrect
        Manufacturing    Dining-in            place cards, seating time,
                         Ceremony             delivery time, accuracy
                                              (food/beverage order)

                                              Cycle time, accuracy (# of
                         Re-enlistment        errors), completeness (# of
           Service/       Papers              items missing)
        Transactional/
        Administrative                        Delivery timeliness,
                         Anthony’s            accuracy, temperature
                         Pizza


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 X and Y Metrics
      Suppliers                Inputs                       Process                   Outputs              Customers
                       • Billing Dept. staff              Billing Process          • Delivered
                       • Customer                                                    Invoice
                         database
                       • Shipping
                         information
                       • Order information


                            Input Metrics                  Process Metrics           Output Metrics
 • Accuracy of     • System responsiveness            • Rework % at each step   • Invoice accuracy
   database info.  • Accuracy of order info.                                                                   Quality
 • Staff expertise • Accuracy of shipping
 • System up-time    info.
                      • Time to receive order info.   •   # of process steps       • Invoice cycle time
 Other Metrics        • Time to receive shipping      •   Time to complete invoice
 • Invoices             information                   •   Time to deliver invoice                              Speed
   processed per                                      •   Delay time between steps
   month and
   variability        • # of billing staff            • # of process steps      • Cost/invoice
                                                                                                               Cost


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                       National Guard
                      Black Belt Training

                         Develop Data
                         Collection Plan


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 Exercise: Data Collection
          Collect Height Data




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Types of Data
        Continuous / Variable – Any variable measured on a continuum or
         scale that can be infinitely divided into recognizable parts. Primary
         types include time, dollars, size, weight, temperature, and speed. Any
         metric that can be continuously divided by 2 and the metric still makes
         sense is a continuous metric. Continuous Data is always
         preferred over Discrete or Attribute Data.
        Discrete / Attribute – A count, proportion, or percentage of a
         characteristic or category. Service process data is often discrete.

             Continuous/Variable             Discrete/Attribute
             • Cycle time                    • Late delivery
             • Cost or price                 • Gender
             • Length of call                • Region/location
             • Temperature of rooms          • Room type

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 The Objective: Data Collection Plan
     Let’s see how a Data Collection Plan is developed
                                               Data Collection Plan
    Performance Operational Data Source           How Will     Who Will      When Will
     Measure                                      Data Be     Collect Data   Data Be Sample Size      Stratification Factors
                 Definition  & Location
                                                  Collected                  Collected



     Developed
       earlier          2              3                 4         5                      6                    1


    How will data be used?                                    How will data be displayed?

    Examples:                                                 Examples:
          Identification of Largest Contributors                 Pareto Chart

          Identifying if Data is Normally Distributed              Histogram
          Identifying Sigma Level and Variation                    Control Chart
          Root Cause Analysis                                      Scatter Diagrams
          Correlation Analysis




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 Step 1. Stratification Factors
                What are the ways you need to look at the data?

        Data Stratification - Capturing and use of characteristics
         to sort data into different categories (also known as “slicing
         the data”)
        Used to:
            Provide clues to root causes (Analyze)
            Verify suspected root causes (Analyze)
            Uncover times, places where problems are severe (“vital
             few”)
            Surface suspicious patterns to investigate

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   Stratification Factors

                             Factors         Examples
                      What              Complaints, Defects
                      When              Month, Day
                      Where             Region, City
                                        Department,
                      Who
                                         Individual

      If  you do not collect stratification factors “up front,” you
         might have to start all over later. On the other hand, seeking
         too many factors makes the data more difficult and/or more
         costly to collect.

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 Stratification Matrix
   Key Steps
      Fill in the Output measure Y

      Fill in the key stratification questions you have about the process in
       relationship to the Y

      List out all the levels and ways you can look at the data in order to
       determine specific areas of concern

      Create specific measurements for each subgroup or stratification factor

      Review each of the measurements (include the Y measure) and
       determine whether or not current data exists

      Discuss with the team whether or not these measurements will help to
       predict the output Y, if not, think of where to apply the measures so
       that they will help you to predict Y
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 Stratification Matrix
                      2                              3                  4
        Questions About Process            Stratification factors   Measurements
                                                X Variables                          Does data exist
                                                                                       to support
                                                                                          these
                                                                                     measurements
                                                                                            ?
                                                                                         (Y/N)
                                                                                              5

                                                                                       Will these
                                                                                     measurements
                              (Output Y)                                             help to predict
                                                                                        Y? (Y/N)
                                  1
                                                                                              6




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Stratification Matrix Example - Checkout
                      2                                                 3                    4
        Questions About Process                            Stratification factors Measurements
                                                                X Variables                                    Does data exist
          Does the number                                                        # adjustments / day             to support
          adjustment vary over time?                          By time period
                                                                                                                    these
                                                                                 # adjustments last year       measurements
                      2                                                                                               ?
                                                                        3                         4                (Y/N)
          Is there a difference by                                                  % of adjustments / associate
                                                              By employee
                                                                                                                        5
          type of employee?                                                          # of adjustments by new
                                                                                     vs. exp. Employees
                                       Total adjustments                                                        Will these
                                          at checkout                                                         measurements
                                                                                                              help to predict
          Is there a difference by      (Output Y)                                   # adjustments by room size
                                                                                                                 Y? (Y/N)
          type of customer?                                   By type                # adjustments by
                                              1
                                                                                     customer segment                   6
          Does the amount of
          adjustments vary from one                                                  # adjustments in North East
          location to another?                                By location            # adjustments in South
                                                                                     # adjustments in Midwest

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 Step 2. Developing Operational Definitions
        Operational Definitions apply to MANY things we encounter every
         day. For example, all the measurement systems we use (feet/inches,
         weight, temperature) are based on common definitions that we all
         know and accept. Sometimes these are called “standards.”
        Other times, our operational definitions are more vague. For example,
         when someone says a loan is “closed” they might mean papers have
         been sent, but not signed; another person might mean signed but not
         funded; a third person might mean funded but not recorded.
        While here we are focused on operational definitions in the context of
         measurement, the concept applies equally well to “operationally
         defining” a customer requirement, a procedure, a regulation, or
         anything else that benefits from clear, unambiguous understanding
        Learning to pay attention to and clarify operational definitions can be a
         major side benefit of the CPI process

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 Defining “Operational Definitions”
          What it is...
            A clear, precise description of the factor being
             measured
          Why it is critical...
            So each individual “counts” things the same way
            So we can plan how to measure effectively
            To ensure common, consistent interpretation of results
            So we can operate with a clear understanding and with
             fewer surprises



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Developing Operational Definitions
     From General to Specific:
      Step   1 – Translate what you want to know into something
         you can count
      Step   2 – Create an “air-tight” description of the item or
         characteristic to be counted
      Step     3 – Test your Operational Definition to make sure it
         is truly “air-tight”
         Note: Sometimes you will need to do some “digging” up-front
         to arrive at good operational definitions. It is usually worth the
         effort!!


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 Step 3. Data Sources
     Key Question: Does the data currently exist?
        Existing Data – Taking advantage of archived data or current
         measures to learn about the Output, Process, or Input
              This is preferred when the data is in a form we can use and
               the Measurement System is valid (a big assumption and
               concern)
        New Data – Capturing and recording observations we have not
         or do not normally capture
              May involve looking at the same “stuff,” but with new
               Operational Definitions
              This is preferred when the data is readily and quickly
               collectable (it has less concerns with measurement problems)

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 Key Considerations: Existing vs. New Data
     Existing vs. New Considerations
        Is existing or “historical” data adequate?
              Meet the Operational Definition?
              Truly representative of the process, group?
              Contain enough data to be analyzed?
              Gathered with a capable Measurement System?
        Cost of gathering new data
        Time required to gather new data
        The trade-offs made here, I.e. should the time and effort be
         taken to gather new data, or only work with what we have, are
         significant and can have a dramatic impact on the project
         success
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Step 4. How will Data Be Collected?
     Check Sheets
      The       workhorse of data collection
      Enhance           ease of collection
              Faster capture
              Consistent data from different people
              Quicker to compile data
      Capture          essential descriptors of data
              “Stratification factors”
      Need           to be designed for each job


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 Data Collection Forms – Check Sheets
          Check sheets are convenient for gathering data
          Data sheets allow:
                Faster, more accurate capture
                Consistent data from different people
                Quicker, easier compilation
          Capture essential descriptors of data
          Designed for each different data gathering situation
          The data may then be analyzed


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 Get Data You Can Use
    As you set up Check Sheets...
        Prepare a spreadsheet to compile the data
        Think about how you will do the compiling (and who will do it)
        Consider what sorting, graphing, or other reports you will want to create
           Continuous or Discrete Data?
           Adequate level of discrimination and accuracy?

        Adjust check sheet as needed to ensure usable data later
           But do not make data harder to collect




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 Constructing Check Sheets
     1. Select specific data and factors to be included
     2. Determine time period to be covered by the form
                Day, Week, Shift, Quarter, etc.
     3. Construct form
                Be sure to include:
                     Clear labels
                     Enough room
                     Space for notes

     4. Test the form!


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 Check Sheet Tips
      Include        name of collector(s) (first and last)
      Reason/comment            columns should be clear and concise
      Use       full dates (month, date, year)
      Use       explanatory title
      Consider        lowest common denominator on metric
              Minutes vs. Hours
              Inches vs. Feet
      Test       and validate your design (try it out)
              Do not change form once you have started, or you will be
               “starting over!”

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 Types of Check Sheet: Frequency Plot
                                                      Shows  “distribution” of
             Frequency of Repairs
     July


                                                       items or occurrences
             1
             2   X   X   X   X   X   X   X
             3   X   X   X   X   X

                                                       along a scale or ordered
             4   X   X   X   X   X
             5   X   X   X   X
             6   X   X
             7
             8
                 X
                 X
                     X   X
                                                       quantity
             9   X   X   X   X   X   X
            10   X   X   X   X
            11
            12
                 X
                 X
                     X
                     X
                         X
                         X
                             X
                             X                        Helps detect unusual
                                                       patterns in a population –
            13   X
            14   X   X   X
            15
            16
            17
                 X
                 X
                     X
                     X
                         X
                         X
                             X
                             X
                                 X
                                 X
                                     X
                                                       or detect multiple
                                                       populations
            18   X   X   X   X   X   X   X   X
            19   X   X   X   X
            20   X
            21   X   X   X   X   X

                                                      Gives visual picture of
            22
            23   X   X   X   X   X   X   X   X   X
            24   X   X   X   X   X   X   X
            25
            26
            27
                 X
                 X
                     X
                     X
                         X
                         X
                             X
                             X
                                 X
                                 X
                                     X
                                     X                 “average” and “range”
            28   X   X   X   X   X
            29   X   X
            30   X   X   X   X   X   X   X   X
            31   X   X   X   X   X   X



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 Types of Check Sheets: Standard
                       Week of: 6/26        Collected by: Kevin Regan

                                                     Repair Complaint             Repair
    Call Date Call Time Initials                                                             Notes
                                   TV       Smk Det Thrmstat RemCon Shower Window Time
       30-Jun 8:00a    EJS              X                       X                10 min
       28-Jun 8:15a    MWT                                             X         1 hr
       27-Jun 7:00p    MWT                    X                                  15 min
       26-Jun 6:30p    KLC                             X                         2 hrs
       28-Jun 5:45p    PP                                       X                30 min
       30-Jun 6:00a    KR                                       X                40 min
         1-Jul 8:15p   DRT                             X                         4 hrs   Replaced part
         1-Jul 8:20p   ECS                                             X         2 hrs   Not in stock
       28-Jun 9:35a    MWT                                                    X  1 hr
       29-Jun 9:40a    KLC                             X                         30 min
       29-Jun 5:15p    EJS                             X                         45 min
       29-Jun 5:20p    KR                                       X                15 min


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 Types of Check Sheets – Traveler
                                             Traveler Checksheet
                                           Awards Approval Process

                       Awardee: __________________________________________________

                       Award type:    □ PCS        □ Other ___________________________
                       Proposed award date: ________________________________________

                       Recommender’s division:
                            □ G-1 □ G-2 □ G-3 □ G-4 □ Other __________
                                                 Time begun; Time
                        Process step                                   Defects found
                                                    completed

                          Fill out forms

                            Approve
                        recommendation

                      Schedule presentation




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 Types of Check Sheets – Confirmation
          Example: Power Steering project tracking




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 Types of Check Sheets – Location
          Defect location Check Sheet for rotor blade voids




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 Check Sheet Takeaways
          A check sheet is an easy way to collect data in order
           to observe trends and identify improvement priorities
          Mistake-proof data collection by using check boxes,
           tallies, or choices that can be circled (reduce any
           writing to an absolute minimum – or none at all!)
          Remember to include those who understand the
           process and those who will actually use the check
           sheet in the design of the check sheet. This is very
           important for success!



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Step 5. Who Will Collect the Data?
     Considerations:
          Familiarity with the process
          Availability/impact on job
                Rule of Thumb – If it takes someone more than 15
                 minutes per day it is not likely to be done
          Potential Bias
                Will finding “defects” be considered risky or a
                 “negative?”
          Benefits of Data Collection
                Will data collection benefit the collector?
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 Preparing Collectors
     Be sure collectors:
          Give input on the check sheet design
          Understand operational definitions (!)
          Understand how data will be tabulated
                Helps them see the consequences of changing
          Have been trained and allowed to practice
          Have knowledge and are unbiased



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 Step 6. Sampling
          Sampling is using a smaller group to represent the
           whole population (the foundation of “statistics”)
          Benefits:
                Saves time and money
                Allows for more meaningful data
                Simplifies measurement over time
                Can improve accuracy




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 Sampling Considerations
          Time
          Cost
          Accuracy



                      Units Processed   Cost to Collect
                          Per Day            Data




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 Sampling Types
          Population – Drawing from a fixed group with
           definable boundaries. No time element.
             Customers
             Complaints
             Items in Warehouse

          Process – Sampling from a changing flow of items
           moving through the business. Has a time
           element.
             New customers per week
             Hourly complaint volume
             Items received or shipped by day


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 Population or Process Sampling
          Of primary importance in a Lean Six Sigma measurement
           effort is to clarify if you are engaged in Population or
           Process sampling
          Most traditional statistical training focuses on sampling
           from populations – a group of items or events from which
           a representative sample can be drawn. A population
           sample looks at the characteristics of the group at a
           particular point in time.
          Quality and business process improvement tends to focus
           more often on processes, where change is a constant



                                                        UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   45
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Population or Process Sampling
          In process sampling, you measure characteristics of things
           or characteristics as they pass through the process, and
           observe changes over time
          Any data you collect that has “time order” included can be
           examined as either a population or a process – however,
           the size of the sample analyzed might need to be different
          Given a choice, process data gives more information, such
           as trends and shifts of short duration. Process sampling
           techniques are the foundation of process monitoring and
           control.



                                                        UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   46
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Sampling Biases
          Self-selection
          Self-exclusion
          Missing key representatives
          Ignoring “non-conformances”
          Grouping




                                         UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   47
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Sampling Methods/Strategies
        The big pitfall in sampling is “bias” – i.e., select a sample that does
         NOT really represent the whole. The sampling plan needs to guard
         against bias. Different methods of sampling have different advantages
         and disadvantages in managing bias.
        Judgment
           As it sounds – selecting a sample based on someone’s knowledge of
            the process, assuming that it will be “representative.” Judgment
            guarantees a bias, and should be avoided.
        Convenience
           Also just like it sounds – sampling those items or at those times
            when it is easier to gather the data. (For example, taking data
            from people you know, or when you go for coffee.) This is another
            common (but ill-advised) approach.


                                                                 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   48
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Sampling Strategies
     Best Methods:
      Random
              Best approach for population situations. Use a random
               number table or random function in Excel or other software,
               or draw numbers from a hat.
      Systematic
              Most practical and unbiased in a process situation.
               “Systematic” means that we select every nth unit, or take
               samples at specific times of the day. The risk of bias comes
               when the timing of the sample matches a pattern in the
               process.


                                                               UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   49
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Sampling Strategies Considerations
          Should we stratify first? ...
                Focus on one group within the process or population?
                Ensure adequate representation from various segments
                 of the population or process?
          Does it “feel right?”
                Sampling needs to fit common sense considerations
                Confront and manage your biases in advance




                                                         UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   50
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Key Sampling Terms/Concepts
          Sampling Event – The act of extracting items from
           the population or process to measure
          Subgroup – The number of consecutive units
           extracted for measurement at each Sampling Event
           (A “subgroup” can be just one!)
          Sampling Frequency – Applies only to process
           sampling; the number of times per day or week a
           sample is taken (i.e., sampling events per period of
           time)
      These are the key elements to be included in the sampling plan: what we will
     “extract,” how many we will take at a time, and how often we will take a sample.

                                                                    UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   51
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Population Sampling Steps
     Building the “Sampling Plan”
     1. Develop an initial profile of the data
     2. Select a sampling strategy
     3. Determine the initial sample size
     4. Adjust as needed to determine minimum
        sample size




                                                 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   52
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Sampling – Initial Data Profile
      Population           size (Noted as “N”)
              As you begin preparing the Sampling Plan, you first
               need to determine the rough size of the total population

      Stratification          factors
              If you elect to conduct a stratified sample, you
               need to know the size of each subset or stratum

      What           precision result do you need?
              Next, you need to define the level of precision needed in your
               measurement. Precision notes how tightly your measurement will
               describe the result. For example, if measuring cycle time, your sample
               will be affected by whether you want precision in days (e.g. estimate is
               within +/- 2 days) or hours (estimate is within +/- 4 hours). Precision
               is noted by the variable “d” or D. The sample size goes up very rapidly
               as the precision is tightened.

                                                                      UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   53
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Sampling – Initial Data Profile
          The last step in your initial profile is to estimate the
           variation in the population
                Continuous data requires an estimate of
                 the “standard deviation” of the variable
                 being measured
                     Continuous data: How much does the
                      characteristic vary? (estimated standard
                      deviation)
                Discrete data requires an estimate of “P,” the
                 proportion of the population that contains the
                 characteristic in question
                     Discrete data: What proportion contains the characteristic?


                                                                    UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   54
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Sampling – Sampling Strategy
          Random or systematic?
          How will we draw the sample?
          Who will conduct the “sampling event?”
          How will we guard against bias?
                Most representative vs. time, effort, and cost
                No differences between what you collect and what you
                 do not collect




                                                         UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   55
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Sampling
     Some Final Tips ...
      When    you want to ensure representation from different
         groups or strata, prepare a separate sampling plan for
         each group
      Be   sure to maintain the time order of your
         samples/subgroups so you can see changes over time
      Common             sense is a useful tool in sampling
      Help           is available if you need it!




                                                               UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   56
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Test, Refine and Implement
     Ensuring “Quality” Measurement
          Measurement is rarely perfect – especially at first
          Even good measurement can go “bad”
          As you use data, lessons might include ...
                How to simplify measures
                Other stratification factors needed
                Ways to improve collection forms
                Other measures to investigate



                                                        UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   57
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




Input, Process, Output Metrics Template

    Suppliers         Inputs                    Process                         Outputs         Customer
                                        Start     Step 2          Step 3
                                        Step1



                                                  Step 5          Step 4



      VOC/              Input Metrics           Process Metrics            Output Metrics
      VOB
                                                                                                        Quality


                                                                                                        Speed

                                                                                                         Cost

                                                       Required Deliverable
                                                                                       UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




Operational Definitions Template
    Define each of the Key Input, Output, Process Metrics from your SIPOC that you are going to
     collect data on (via the Data Collection Plan) as well as any other terms that need clarification
     for the data collectors and everyone else on the team.
    Examples:
         Award Process PLT: The time from when a Director submits the Award recommendation to
          the time when the employee is presented the Award in a ceremony.
         Number of Claims Processed: The number of Claims processed per weekday (M-F).
         Total Hours Worked: The total number of hours worked in the facility including weekends
          and holidays.
         Number of Personnel: The total number of military and civilian personnel working (not
          including contractors).


    Include other unique terms that apply to your project that require clear operational definitions
     for those collecting the data and for those interpreting the data.




                                                                                 Required
                                                                                 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Data Collection Plan Template
  Performanc           Operational             Data        How Will Data Be              Who Will     When Will   Sampl    Stratificati      How will
   e Measure            Definition          Source and        Collected                   Collect      Data Be    e Size   on Factors        data be
                                             Location                                      Data       Collected                               used?
                       1
  Ability to update   X – Steps to          In DEPMS     By counting steps              Name         ASAP         1        None           To find VA, BNVA,
  projects and        update projects                                                                                                     NVA
  build tollgate
  reviews

                                                                                                - Example -
                       2
  Ability to update   X – Tollgate          In DEPMS     By determining % of            Name         ASAP         40       None           To determine
  projects and        template slides                    activity steps identified in                                                     consistency with
  build tollgate      that match POI                     “Introduction to _____”                                                          POI
  reviews                                                modules in POI that are
                                                         adequately addressed in
                                                         templates




                       3
  Easy Access to      X – Availability of   In DEPMS     By determining the             Name         ASAP         63       None           To determine
  LSS tools and       LSS tools and                      percentage of tools, with                                                        availability of tools
  references          references                         their references, listed on                                                      and references
                                                         DMAIC Road Map slides that
                                                         can be found in PS



                       4
  Easy Access to      X – Steps             In DEPMS     By counting # steps            Name         ASAP         37       None           To find VA, BNVA,
  LSS tools and       required to find                   required to find the tools                                                       NVA
  references          tools and                          and their references
                      references




                                                                                               Required Deliverable
                                                                                                                           UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Exercise: Data Collection
    Objective
           Create a data collection plan for the GGA's Budget
           Department
    Instructions
          Include:
           1. Key input, process and output metrics
           2. Operational definitions
           3. Data collection methods


                                Time = 30 Minutes

                                                        UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   61
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Takeaways
          Know what to measure and why
          Create a plan to collect output, process and/or input
           data
          Construct forms and test data collection procedures
           using appropriate data sampling methods
          Refine data collection
          Collect the data
          Analyze the data


                                                     UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   62
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




        What other comments or questions
                  do you have?




                                  UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




                       National Guard
                      Black Belt Training

                          Appendix
                        Sample Size Calculations



                                                   UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 How Many Do We Need to Count?
     Factors in Sample Size Selection:
          Situation: Population or Process
          Data Type: Continuous or Discrete
          Objectives: What you will do with results
          Familiarity: What you guess results will be
          Certainty: How much “confidence” you need in your
           conclusions




                          Determine What to Measure and Data Collection   UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   65
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Three Factors Drive Sample Sizes
          Three concepts affect the conclusions drawn from a
           single sample data set of (n) items:
             Variation in the underlying population (sigma)
             Risk of drawing the wrong conclusions
             How small a Difference is significant (delta)

                                  Risk




                      Variation              Difference
                                                    UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   66
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Three Factors: Variation, Risk, Difference
     These 3 factors work together. Each affects the others.
          Variation: When there’s greater variation, a larger
           sample is needed to have the same level of
           confidence that the test will be valid. More variation
           diminishes our confidence level.
          Risk: If we want to be more confident that we are not
           going to make a decision error or miss a significant
           event, we must increase the sample size.
          Difference: If we want to be confident that we can
           identify a smaller difference between two test
           samples, the sample size must increase.

                                                     UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   67
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Determining Minimum Sample Size
         Minimum sampling size from a population or a stable process can be
         estimated from the following formulas:

         Continuous Data Sample Size
         For continuous data:                        2
                                         1.96 s 
                                      n=        
                                         D 
         Where:               n = minimum sample size required
                              s = estimate of standard deviation of the
                                  population or process data
                              D = level of precision desired from the sample
                                  in the same units as the “s” measurement
                              1.96 = constant representing a 95%
                                  confidence interval

                                                              UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   68
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Determining Minimum Sample Size
          Discrete Data Sample Size
          For discrete or proportion data:
                                                   2
                                         1.96 
                                      n=       P(1  P)
                                         D 
          Where
             n = minimum sample size
             P = estimate of the proportion of the population or process
             which is defective
             D = level of precision desired from the sample in units of
             proportion
             1.96 = constant representing a 95% confidence interval
          The highest value of p(1-p) is 0.25 or p=0.5
                                  Benefits of Continuous Data
                                 Usually requires a smaller sample
                      More information for stratification and root cause analysis
                                                                            UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   69
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Formula for Small Populations
     Making adjustments in the minimum sample size
       required/needed for small populations:
               Both sample size formulas assume:
                   a 95% confidence interval
                   a small sample size (n) compared to the entire population size (N)

               If n/N is greater than 0.05, the sample size should be
                adjusted to:
                                                  n
                                  n finite   =
                                                      n
                                                 1+
                                                      N
     The proportion formula should only be used when:                    nP  5


                                                                        UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   70
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Formula for Small Populations
        Example: Processing CAC applications
        Given:
               The  sample size formula shows that you need a minimum
                  sample size of 289
               You    have only processed 200 units
        Solution: The correct minimum sample size would be:

                            n        289
                  n finite =      =        = 118.2 or 119 - minimum sample size required
                                n      289
                             1+     1+
                                N      200




                                                                         UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   71
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




Minimum Sample Size – Continuous Example
       Example: Sample Size Calculation – Continuous

       A Lean Six Sigma team samples a contracting process to determine
       the average processing time and wishes to estimate the average time
       within one day. Based on previous sampling, the team has estimated
       the standard deviation of the current contract process time as 4 days.

       What is the minimum sample size required to be able to estimate the
       average with the required precision?
                                                2
                                     1.96s 
                                  n=       
                                     D 

                                  1.96  4 
                                              2

                               n=           = 62 contracts
                                  1 
                                                                UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   72
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Minimum Sample Size – Discrete Example
       Example: Sample Size Calculation – Discrete

       Another Lean Six Sigma team determines the minimum sample size
       required for the proportion of DPW, Department of Public Works,
       service contracts that require rework at the approval meeting. From
       interviews, the team has concluded that approximately 25% of the
       contracts contain errors and require rework. They wish to determine
       the % requiring rework within 5%.
                                         2
                               1.96 
                           n =       .25(1  .25)
                               .05 
                           n =(1536.64)(.1875) = 289 contracts




                                                                 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   73
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO

 Exercise:
 Sample Size
     Objective:
             Determine the appropriate sample size
     Instructions:
             Use the pizza delivery example. The pizza is scheduled for
              the time the customer requests delivery.
                     The customer requirement is +/- 10 minutes from the
                      scheduled delivery time
                     Estimated s = 7.16 minutes and D = 2 minutes
                     Estimated number of defects is 30% ( P = 0.30; D =5%)
             Determine the minimum sample size for both continuous
              and discrete data


                                                                  UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   74
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO

 Exercise:
 Sample Size Answers

      Continuous

                          2              2           2
                  1.96s    1.96 * 7.16   14.03 
               n=        =              =       = 49.24  50
                  D             2        2 

       Discrete
                      2          2
     1.96              1.96 
  n=       P(1  P) =        0.30(0.70) = 39.2 * 0.21 = 322.69  323
                                                    2

     D                 0.05 



                                                          UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   75
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO

 Exercise:
 Sample Size
        Objective:
         Determine the appropriate sample size

        Instructions:
          Select one output indicator for your process
                     Determine the type of data (continuous / discrete)
                        Continuous - estimate “s” and D
                       Discrete - estimate D and P
              Determine the minimum sample size required




                                                                 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   76
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO

 Exercise:
 Sample Size Formula
    Objective:
         Determine the appropriate sample size formula to use
    Instructions:
         At your tables determine the right formula (proportion/discrete or continuous)
          to use and calculate the sample size for each situation
            1.Estimate the average cycle time within 2 hours. The estimated standard
              deviation is 8 hours. What is the minimum number to sample?
            2.A team collected 100 observations to determine the proportion defective.
              They found 20% to be defective. How accurately can they estimate the
              proportion defective?
            3.You have a customer survey with 2 categorical questions and 8 interval
              statements. You estimate that at least one option of a categorical
              question will be answered by approximately 50% of the respondents and
              you want to be able to detect a difference within ± 5%. For the
              continuous statements you want to be able to detect a difference of at
              least ½ a point. The highest estimated standard deviation for any of the
              statements is 1.2. You expect the response rate to be 25%. How many
              surveys do you have to send out and how many completed surveys do
              you need returned?
                                                                      UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   77
UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO




 Answers to Sampling Exercise
                                        2                     2
                             1.96s    1.96(8) 
     1. Continuous        n=        =          = 62
                             D           2    
                                                      2
                                        1 . 96   
     2. Discrete/Proportioned      n =                  p (1    p )
                                            D    
                                                  2
                                          1.96
                                    100 =      .2(1  .2)
                                           D2
                                     D = .08 or  8%
                                            2
                                  1.96 
     3. Discrete Calculation n =        .5(1  .5) = 385
                                   .05 
                                                  2
              Continuous          1.96(1.2) 
                             n=                 = 23
                                       .5      
                 Must send out 4* minimum sample or 4*385 = 1,540

                                                                         UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO   78

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NG BB 20 Data Collection

  • 1. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO National Guard Black Belt Training Module 20 Data Collection UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 2. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO CPI Roadmap – Measure 8-STEP PROCESS 6. See 1.Validate 2. Identify 3. Set 4. Determine 5. Develop 7. Confirm 8. Standardize Counter- the Performance Improvement Root Counter- Results Successful Measures Problem Gaps Targets Cause Measures & Process Processes Through Define Measure Analyze Improve Control TOOLS •Process Mapping ACTIVITIES • Map Current Process / Go & See •Process Cycle Efficiency/TOC • Identify Key Input, Process, Output Metrics •Little’s Law • Develop Operational Definitions •Operational Definitions • Develop Data Collection Plan •Data Collection Plan • Validate Measurement System •Statistical Sampling • Collect Baseline Data •Measurement System Analysis • Identify Performance Gaps •TPM • Estimate Financial/Operational Benefits •Generic Pull • Determine Process Stability/Capability •Setup Reduction • Complete Measure Tollgate •Control Charts •Histograms •Constraint Identification •Process Capability Note: Activities and tools vary by project. Lists provided here are not necessarily all-inclusive. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 3. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Learning Objectives  Determine what to measure and why  Prepare plans to collect output, process and/or input data  Apply sampling techniques, as needed  Construct forms and test data collection procedures  Refine data collection  Implement data collection plan UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 3
  • 4. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO What Is a Measure?  A quantified evaluation of characteristics and/or level of performance based on observable data  Examples include:  Length of time (speed, age)  Size (length, height, weight)  Dollars (costs, sales revenue, profits)  Counts of characteristics or “attributes” (types of customer, property size, gender)  Counts of defects (number of errors, late checkouts, complaints) UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 4
  • 5. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Why Measure?  Establish the current performance level (baseline)  Determine priorities for action – and whether or not to take action  Substantiate the magnitude of the problem  To gain insight into potential causes of problems and changes in the process  Prevent problems and predict future performance To gain knowledge about the problem, process, customer or organization UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 5
  • 6. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO National Guard Black Belt Training Determine What to Measure UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 7. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO What Do We Need to Know?  The first step in the creation of any data collection plan is to decide what you need to know about your process and where to find measurement points  What data is needed to “baseline” our problem?  What “upstream” factors might affect the process/problem?  What do we plan to do with the data after it has been gathered?  Do we have a balance between Output and Input/Process measures? UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 7
  • 8. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Deciding “What and Where” Process Input Output  Preparing the SIPOC diagram and a more detailed process map can help a team select its measures  Choosing good measures requires a clear understanding of the definitions of and relationships between Output, Process, and Input measures UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 8
  • 9. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO “X” and “Y” Variables Y = f ( X1 + X2 + X3 + . . . . . . . . . Xn ) Output Input/Process Final Score in First Second Third Fourth = + + + + Overtime Basketball Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter Game Score Score Score Score Score Customer = Front Desk Check In Room Room Check Out + + + + Satisfaction Courtesy Ease Comfort Service Ease Loan Process Application Credit & Risk Review & Loan Service Cycle Time = Data Entry + Collateral + Assessment + Approval Time + Time Time Check Time Time Generally, you can influence some of the Xs but not all. CPI projects will generally address those Xs which can be influenced and which have the greatest impact on Y. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 9
  • 10. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Measuring Business Processes X - PREDICTOR Y - RESULTS (Leading) MEASURES (Lagging) MEASURES (X) (X) (Y) Input Process Output • Arrival Time • Customer • Accuracy Satisfaction • Cost • Total Defects • Key Specs • Cycle Time • Cost Profit Time Per Task How well do these (Xs)… In-Process Errors …predict this (Y)? Labor Hours Exceptions UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 10
  • 11. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Categories of Performance Metrics  Developing Input, Process and Output metrics around the Voice of the Customer (VOC) and Voice of the Business (VOB) process performance needs is a good starting point for determining what to measure Product or Service Features, Attributes, Dimensions, Characteristics Relating to the Function of the Product or Service, Reliability, Availability, Quality Taste, Effectiveness - Also Freedom from Defects, Rework or Scrap (Derived Primarily from the Customer - VOC) Process Cost Efficiency, Prices to Consumer (Initial Plus Life Cycle), Repair Cost Costs, Purchase Price, Financing Terms, Depreciation, Residual Value (Derived Primarily from the Business - VOB) Lead Times, Delivery Times, Turnaround Times, Setup Times, Cycle Speed Times, Delays (Derived equally from the Customer or the Business – VOC/VOB) Service Service Requirements, After-Purchase Reliability, Parts Availability, Service, and Safety Warranties, Maintainability, Customer-Required Maintenance, Product Liability, Product/Service Safety Ethical Business Conduct, Environmental Impact, Business Risk Stewardship Management, Regulatory and Legal Compliance UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 11
  • 12. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Output Measures  Referred to as “Y” data. Output Metrics quantify the overall performance of the process, including:  How well customer needs and requirements were met (typically Quality & Speed requirements), and  How well business needs and requirements were met (typically Cost & Speed requirements)  Output measures provide the best overall barometer of process performance  Focus on one Primary Output (Y) metric at a time. Use Secondary Y metrics to “keep you honest” Example: If the Primary Y is to improve cycle time, the Secondary Y could monitor defects to make sure they also improve or at least don’t get worse! UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 12
  • 13. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Typical Output Measures Possible Output Process Type Output (Y) Measures Metal chemistry/thickness/ Ammo propellant weight/ballistics Product/ Number of missing/incorrect Manufacturing Dining-in place cards, seating time, Ceremony delivery time, accuracy (food/beverage order) Cycle time, accuracy (# of Re-enlistment errors), completeness (# of Service/ Papers items missing) Transactional/ Administrative Delivery timeliness, Anthony’s accuracy, temperature Pizza UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 13
  • 14. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO X and Y Metrics Suppliers Inputs Process Outputs Customers • Billing Dept. staff Billing Process • Delivered • Customer Invoice database • Shipping information • Order information Input Metrics Process Metrics Output Metrics • Accuracy of • System responsiveness • Rework % at each step • Invoice accuracy database info. • Accuracy of order info. Quality • Staff expertise • Accuracy of shipping • System up-time info. • Time to receive order info. • # of process steps • Invoice cycle time Other Metrics • Time to receive shipping • Time to complete invoice • Invoices information • Time to deliver invoice Speed processed per • Delay time between steps month and variability • # of billing staff • # of process steps • Cost/invoice Cost UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 14
  • 15. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO National Guard Black Belt Training Develop Data Collection Plan UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 16. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Exercise: Data Collection  Collect Height Data UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 17. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Types of Data  Continuous / Variable – Any variable measured on a continuum or scale that can be infinitely divided into recognizable parts. Primary types include time, dollars, size, weight, temperature, and speed. Any metric that can be continuously divided by 2 and the metric still makes sense is a continuous metric. Continuous Data is always preferred over Discrete or Attribute Data.  Discrete / Attribute – A count, proportion, or percentage of a characteristic or category. Service process data is often discrete. Continuous/Variable Discrete/Attribute • Cycle time • Late delivery • Cost or price • Gender • Length of call • Region/location • Temperature of rooms • Room type UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 17
  • 18. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO The Objective: Data Collection Plan Let’s see how a Data Collection Plan is developed Data Collection Plan Performance Operational Data Source How Will Who Will When Will Measure Data Be Collect Data Data Be Sample Size Stratification Factors Definition & Location Collected Collected Developed earlier 2 3 4 5 6 1 How will data be used? How will data be displayed? Examples: Examples:  Identification of Largest Contributors  Pareto Chart  Identifying if Data is Normally Distributed  Histogram  Identifying Sigma Level and Variation  Control Chart  Root Cause Analysis  Scatter Diagrams  Correlation Analysis UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 18
  • 19. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Step 1. Stratification Factors What are the ways you need to look at the data?  Data Stratification - Capturing and use of characteristics to sort data into different categories (also known as “slicing the data”)  Used to:  Provide clues to root causes (Analyze)  Verify suspected root causes (Analyze)  Uncover times, places where problems are severe (“vital few”)  Surface suspicious patterns to investigate UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 19
  • 20. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Stratification Factors Factors Examples What Complaints, Defects When Month, Day Where Region, City Department, Who Individual  If you do not collect stratification factors “up front,” you might have to start all over later. On the other hand, seeking too many factors makes the data more difficult and/or more costly to collect. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 20
  • 21. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Stratification Matrix Key Steps  Fill in the Output measure Y  Fill in the key stratification questions you have about the process in relationship to the Y  List out all the levels and ways you can look at the data in order to determine specific areas of concern  Create specific measurements for each subgroup or stratification factor  Review each of the measurements (include the Y measure) and determine whether or not current data exists  Discuss with the team whether or not these measurements will help to predict the output Y, if not, think of where to apply the measures so that they will help you to predict Y UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 21
  • 22. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Stratification Matrix 2 3 4 Questions About Process Stratification factors Measurements X Variables Does data exist to support these measurements ? (Y/N) 5 Will these measurements (Output Y) help to predict Y? (Y/N) 1 6 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 22
  • 23. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Stratification Matrix Example - Checkout 2 3 4 Questions About Process Stratification factors Measurements X Variables Does data exist Does the number # adjustments / day to support adjustment vary over time? By time period these # adjustments last year measurements 2 ? 3 4 (Y/N) Is there a difference by % of adjustments / associate By employee 5 type of employee? # of adjustments by new vs. exp. Employees Total adjustments Will these at checkout measurements help to predict Is there a difference by (Output Y) # adjustments by room size Y? (Y/N) type of customer? By type # adjustments by 1 customer segment 6 Does the amount of adjustments vary from one # adjustments in North East location to another? By location # adjustments in South # adjustments in Midwest UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 23
  • 24. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Step 2. Developing Operational Definitions  Operational Definitions apply to MANY things we encounter every day. For example, all the measurement systems we use (feet/inches, weight, temperature) are based on common definitions that we all know and accept. Sometimes these are called “standards.”  Other times, our operational definitions are more vague. For example, when someone says a loan is “closed” they might mean papers have been sent, but not signed; another person might mean signed but not funded; a third person might mean funded but not recorded.  While here we are focused on operational definitions in the context of measurement, the concept applies equally well to “operationally defining” a customer requirement, a procedure, a regulation, or anything else that benefits from clear, unambiguous understanding  Learning to pay attention to and clarify operational definitions can be a major side benefit of the CPI process UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 24
  • 25. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Defining “Operational Definitions”  What it is...  A clear, precise description of the factor being measured  Why it is critical...  So each individual “counts” things the same way  So we can plan how to measure effectively  To ensure common, consistent interpretation of results  So we can operate with a clear understanding and with fewer surprises UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 25
  • 26. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Developing Operational Definitions From General to Specific:  Step 1 – Translate what you want to know into something you can count  Step 2 – Create an “air-tight” description of the item or characteristic to be counted  Step 3 – Test your Operational Definition to make sure it is truly “air-tight” Note: Sometimes you will need to do some “digging” up-front to arrive at good operational definitions. It is usually worth the effort!! UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 26
  • 27. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Step 3. Data Sources Key Question: Does the data currently exist?  Existing Data – Taking advantage of archived data or current measures to learn about the Output, Process, or Input  This is preferred when the data is in a form we can use and the Measurement System is valid (a big assumption and concern)  New Data – Capturing and recording observations we have not or do not normally capture  May involve looking at the same “stuff,” but with new Operational Definitions  This is preferred when the data is readily and quickly collectable (it has less concerns with measurement problems) UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 27
  • 28. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Key Considerations: Existing vs. New Data Existing vs. New Considerations  Is existing or “historical” data adequate?  Meet the Operational Definition?  Truly representative of the process, group?  Contain enough data to be analyzed?  Gathered with a capable Measurement System?  Cost of gathering new data  Time required to gather new data  The trade-offs made here, I.e. should the time and effort be taken to gather new data, or only work with what we have, are significant and can have a dramatic impact on the project success UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 28
  • 29. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Step 4. How will Data Be Collected? Check Sheets  The workhorse of data collection  Enhance ease of collection  Faster capture  Consistent data from different people  Quicker to compile data  Capture essential descriptors of data  “Stratification factors”  Need to be designed for each job UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 29
  • 30. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Data Collection Forms – Check Sheets  Check sheets are convenient for gathering data  Data sheets allow:  Faster, more accurate capture  Consistent data from different people  Quicker, easier compilation  Capture essential descriptors of data  Designed for each different data gathering situation  The data may then be analyzed UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 30
  • 31. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Get Data You Can Use As you set up Check Sheets...  Prepare a spreadsheet to compile the data  Think about how you will do the compiling (and who will do it)  Consider what sorting, graphing, or other reports you will want to create  Continuous or Discrete Data?  Adequate level of discrimination and accuracy?  Adjust check sheet as needed to ensure usable data later  But do not make data harder to collect UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 31
  • 32. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Constructing Check Sheets 1. Select specific data and factors to be included 2. Determine time period to be covered by the form  Day, Week, Shift, Quarter, etc. 3. Construct form  Be sure to include:  Clear labels  Enough room  Space for notes 4. Test the form! UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 32
  • 33. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Check Sheet Tips  Include name of collector(s) (first and last)  Reason/comment columns should be clear and concise  Use full dates (month, date, year)  Use explanatory title  Consider lowest common denominator on metric  Minutes vs. Hours  Inches vs. Feet  Test and validate your design (try it out)  Do not change form once you have started, or you will be “starting over!” UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 33
  • 34. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Types of Check Sheet: Frequency Plot  Shows “distribution” of Frequency of Repairs July items or occurrences 1 2 X X X X X X X 3 X X X X X along a scale or ordered 4 X X X X X 5 X X X X 6 X X 7 8 X X X X quantity 9 X X X X X X 10 X X X X 11 12 X X X X X X X X  Helps detect unusual patterns in a population – 13 X 14 X X X 15 16 17 X X X X X X X X X X X or detect multiple populations 18 X X X X X X X X 19 X X X X 20 X 21 X X X X X  Gives visual picture of 22 23 X X X X X X X X X 24 X X X X X X X 25 26 27 X X X X X X X X X X X X “average” and “range” 28 X X X X X 29 X X 30 X X X X X X X X 31 X X X X X X UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 34
  • 35. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Types of Check Sheets: Standard Week of: 6/26 Collected by: Kevin Regan Repair Complaint Repair Call Date Call Time Initials Notes TV Smk Det Thrmstat RemCon Shower Window Time 30-Jun 8:00a EJS X X 10 min 28-Jun 8:15a MWT X 1 hr 27-Jun 7:00p MWT X 15 min 26-Jun 6:30p KLC X 2 hrs 28-Jun 5:45p PP X 30 min 30-Jun 6:00a KR X 40 min 1-Jul 8:15p DRT X 4 hrs Replaced part 1-Jul 8:20p ECS X 2 hrs Not in stock 28-Jun 9:35a MWT X 1 hr 29-Jun 9:40a KLC X 30 min 29-Jun 5:15p EJS X 45 min 29-Jun 5:20p KR X 15 min UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 35
  • 36. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Types of Check Sheets – Traveler Traveler Checksheet Awards Approval Process Awardee: __________________________________________________ Award type: □ PCS □ Other ___________________________ Proposed award date: ________________________________________ Recommender’s division: □ G-1 □ G-2 □ G-3 □ G-4 □ Other __________ Time begun; Time Process step Defects found completed Fill out forms Approve recommendation Schedule presentation UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 36
  • 37. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Types of Check Sheets – Confirmation  Example: Power Steering project tracking UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 37
  • 38. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Types of Check Sheets – Location  Defect location Check Sheet for rotor blade voids UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 38
  • 39. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Check Sheet Takeaways  A check sheet is an easy way to collect data in order to observe trends and identify improvement priorities  Mistake-proof data collection by using check boxes, tallies, or choices that can be circled (reduce any writing to an absolute minimum – or none at all!)  Remember to include those who understand the process and those who will actually use the check sheet in the design of the check sheet. This is very important for success! UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 39
  • 40. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Step 5. Who Will Collect the Data? Considerations:  Familiarity with the process  Availability/impact on job  Rule of Thumb – If it takes someone more than 15 minutes per day it is not likely to be done  Potential Bias  Will finding “defects” be considered risky or a “negative?”  Benefits of Data Collection  Will data collection benefit the collector? UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 40
  • 41. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Preparing Collectors Be sure collectors:  Give input on the check sheet design  Understand operational definitions (!)  Understand how data will be tabulated  Helps them see the consequences of changing  Have been trained and allowed to practice  Have knowledge and are unbiased UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 41
  • 42. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Step 6. Sampling  Sampling is using a smaller group to represent the whole population (the foundation of “statistics”)  Benefits:  Saves time and money  Allows for more meaningful data  Simplifies measurement over time  Can improve accuracy UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 42
  • 43. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Sampling Considerations  Time  Cost  Accuracy Units Processed Cost to Collect Per Day Data UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 43
  • 44. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Sampling Types  Population – Drawing from a fixed group with definable boundaries. No time element.  Customers  Complaints  Items in Warehouse  Process – Sampling from a changing flow of items moving through the business. Has a time element.  New customers per week  Hourly complaint volume  Items received or shipped by day UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 44
  • 45. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Population or Process Sampling  Of primary importance in a Lean Six Sigma measurement effort is to clarify if you are engaged in Population or Process sampling  Most traditional statistical training focuses on sampling from populations – a group of items or events from which a representative sample can be drawn. A population sample looks at the characteristics of the group at a particular point in time.  Quality and business process improvement tends to focus more often on processes, where change is a constant UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 45
  • 46. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Population or Process Sampling  In process sampling, you measure characteristics of things or characteristics as they pass through the process, and observe changes over time  Any data you collect that has “time order” included can be examined as either a population or a process – however, the size of the sample analyzed might need to be different  Given a choice, process data gives more information, such as trends and shifts of short duration. Process sampling techniques are the foundation of process monitoring and control. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 46
  • 47. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Sampling Biases  Self-selection  Self-exclusion  Missing key representatives  Ignoring “non-conformances”  Grouping UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 47
  • 48. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Sampling Methods/Strategies  The big pitfall in sampling is “bias” – i.e., select a sample that does NOT really represent the whole. The sampling plan needs to guard against bias. Different methods of sampling have different advantages and disadvantages in managing bias.  Judgment  As it sounds – selecting a sample based on someone’s knowledge of the process, assuming that it will be “representative.” Judgment guarantees a bias, and should be avoided.  Convenience  Also just like it sounds – sampling those items or at those times when it is easier to gather the data. (For example, taking data from people you know, or when you go for coffee.) This is another common (but ill-advised) approach. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 48
  • 49. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Sampling Strategies Best Methods:  Random  Best approach for population situations. Use a random number table or random function in Excel or other software, or draw numbers from a hat.  Systematic  Most practical and unbiased in a process situation. “Systematic” means that we select every nth unit, or take samples at specific times of the day. The risk of bias comes when the timing of the sample matches a pattern in the process. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 49
  • 50. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Sampling Strategies Considerations  Should we stratify first? ...  Focus on one group within the process or population?  Ensure adequate representation from various segments of the population or process?  Does it “feel right?”  Sampling needs to fit common sense considerations  Confront and manage your biases in advance UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 50
  • 51. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Key Sampling Terms/Concepts  Sampling Event – The act of extracting items from the population or process to measure  Subgroup – The number of consecutive units extracted for measurement at each Sampling Event (A “subgroup” can be just one!)  Sampling Frequency – Applies only to process sampling; the number of times per day or week a sample is taken (i.e., sampling events per period of time) These are the key elements to be included in the sampling plan: what we will “extract,” how many we will take at a time, and how often we will take a sample. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 51
  • 52. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Population Sampling Steps Building the “Sampling Plan” 1. Develop an initial profile of the data 2. Select a sampling strategy 3. Determine the initial sample size 4. Adjust as needed to determine minimum sample size UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 52
  • 53. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Sampling – Initial Data Profile  Population size (Noted as “N”)  As you begin preparing the Sampling Plan, you first need to determine the rough size of the total population  Stratification factors  If you elect to conduct a stratified sample, you need to know the size of each subset or stratum  What precision result do you need?  Next, you need to define the level of precision needed in your measurement. Precision notes how tightly your measurement will describe the result. For example, if measuring cycle time, your sample will be affected by whether you want precision in days (e.g. estimate is within +/- 2 days) or hours (estimate is within +/- 4 hours). Precision is noted by the variable “d” or D. The sample size goes up very rapidly as the precision is tightened. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 53
  • 54. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Sampling – Initial Data Profile  The last step in your initial profile is to estimate the variation in the population  Continuous data requires an estimate of the “standard deviation” of the variable being measured  Continuous data: How much does the characteristic vary? (estimated standard deviation)  Discrete data requires an estimate of “P,” the proportion of the population that contains the characteristic in question  Discrete data: What proportion contains the characteristic? UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 54
  • 55. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Sampling – Sampling Strategy  Random or systematic?  How will we draw the sample?  Who will conduct the “sampling event?”  How will we guard against bias?  Most representative vs. time, effort, and cost  No differences between what you collect and what you do not collect UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 55
  • 56. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Sampling Some Final Tips ...  When you want to ensure representation from different groups or strata, prepare a separate sampling plan for each group  Be sure to maintain the time order of your samples/subgroups so you can see changes over time  Common sense is a useful tool in sampling  Help is available if you need it! UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 56
  • 57. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Test, Refine and Implement Ensuring “Quality” Measurement  Measurement is rarely perfect – especially at first  Even good measurement can go “bad”  As you use data, lessons might include ...  How to simplify measures  Other stratification factors needed  Ways to improve collection forms  Other measures to investigate UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 57
  • 58. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Input, Process, Output Metrics Template Suppliers Inputs Process Outputs Customer Start Step 2 Step 3 Step1 Step 5 Step 4 VOC/ Input Metrics Process Metrics Output Metrics VOB Quality Speed Cost Required Deliverable UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 59. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Operational Definitions Template  Define each of the Key Input, Output, Process Metrics from your SIPOC that you are going to collect data on (via the Data Collection Plan) as well as any other terms that need clarification for the data collectors and everyone else on the team.  Examples:  Award Process PLT: The time from when a Director submits the Award recommendation to the time when the employee is presented the Award in a ceremony.  Number of Claims Processed: The number of Claims processed per weekday (M-F).  Total Hours Worked: The total number of hours worked in the facility including weekends and holidays.  Number of Personnel: The total number of military and civilian personnel working (not including contractors).  Include other unique terms that apply to your project that require clear operational definitions for those collecting the data and for those interpreting the data. Required UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 60. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Data Collection Plan Template Performanc Operational Data How Will Data Be Who Will When Will Sampl Stratificati How will e Measure Definition Source and Collected Collect Data Be e Size on Factors data be Location Data Collected used? 1 Ability to update X – Steps to In DEPMS By counting steps Name ASAP 1 None To find VA, BNVA, projects and update projects NVA build tollgate reviews - Example - 2 Ability to update X – Tollgate In DEPMS By determining % of Name ASAP 40 None To determine projects and template slides activity steps identified in consistency with build tollgate that match POI “Introduction to _____” POI reviews modules in POI that are adequately addressed in templates 3 Easy Access to X – Availability of In DEPMS By determining the Name ASAP 63 None To determine LSS tools and LSS tools and percentage of tools, with availability of tools references references their references, listed on and references DMAIC Road Map slides that can be found in PS 4 Easy Access to X – Steps In DEPMS By counting # steps Name ASAP 37 None To find VA, BNVA, LSS tools and required to find required to find the tools NVA references tools and and their references references Required Deliverable UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 61. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Exercise: Data Collection Objective Create a data collection plan for the GGA's Budget Department Instructions  Include: 1. Key input, process and output metrics 2. Operational definitions 3. Data collection methods Time = 30 Minutes UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 61
  • 62. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Takeaways  Know what to measure and why  Create a plan to collect output, process and/or input data  Construct forms and test data collection procedures using appropriate data sampling methods  Refine data collection  Collect the data  Analyze the data UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 62
  • 63. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO What other comments or questions do you have? UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 64. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO National Guard Black Belt Training Appendix Sample Size Calculations UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO
  • 65. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO How Many Do We Need to Count? Factors in Sample Size Selection:  Situation: Population or Process  Data Type: Continuous or Discrete  Objectives: What you will do with results  Familiarity: What you guess results will be  Certainty: How much “confidence” you need in your conclusions Determine What to Measure and Data Collection UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 65
  • 66. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Three Factors Drive Sample Sizes  Three concepts affect the conclusions drawn from a single sample data set of (n) items:  Variation in the underlying population (sigma)  Risk of drawing the wrong conclusions  How small a Difference is significant (delta) Risk Variation Difference UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 66
  • 67. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Three Factors: Variation, Risk, Difference These 3 factors work together. Each affects the others.  Variation: When there’s greater variation, a larger sample is needed to have the same level of confidence that the test will be valid. More variation diminishes our confidence level.  Risk: If we want to be more confident that we are not going to make a decision error or miss a significant event, we must increase the sample size.  Difference: If we want to be confident that we can identify a smaller difference between two test samples, the sample size must increase. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 67
  • 68. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Determining Minimum Sample Size Minimum sampling size from a population or a stable process can be estimated from the following formulas: Continuous Data Sample Size For continuous data: 2  1.96 s  n=   D  Where: n = minimum sample size required s = estimate of standard deviation of the population or process data D = level of precision desired from the sample in the same units as the “s” measurement 1.96 = constant representing a 95% confidence interval UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 68
  • 69. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Determining Minimum Sample Size Discrete Data Sample Size For discrete or proportion data: 2  1.96  n=  P(1  P)  D  Where n = minimum sample size P = estimate of the proportion of the population or process which is defective D = level of precision desired from the sample in units of proportion 1.96 = constant representing a 95% confidence interval The highest value of p(1-p) is 0.25 or p=0.5 Benefits of Continuous Data Usually requires a smaller sample More information for stratification and root cause analysis UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 69
  • 70. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Formula for Small Populations Making adjustments in the minimum sample size required/needed for small populations:  Both sample size formulas assume:  a 95% confidence interval  a small sample size (n) compared to the entire population size (N)  If n/N is greater than 0.05, the sample size should be adjusted to: n n finite = n 1+ N The proportion formula should only be used when: nP  5 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 70
  • 71. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Formula for Small Populations Example: Processing CAC applications Given: The sample size formula shows that you need a minimum sample size of 289 You have only processed 200 units Solution: The correct minimum sample size would be: n 289 n finite = = = 118.2 or 119 - minimum sample size required n 289 1+ 1+ N 200 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 71
  • 72. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minimum Sample Size – Continuous Example Example: Sample Size Calculation – Continuous A Lean Six Sigma team samples a contracting process to determine the average processing time and wishes to estimate the average time within one day. Based on previous sampling, the team has estimated the standard deviation of the current contract process time as 4 days. What is the minimum sample size required to be able to estimate the average with the required precision? 2  1.96s  n=   D   1.96  4  2 n=  = 62 contracts  1  UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 72
  • 73. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Minimum Sample Size – Discrete Example Example: Sample Size Calculation – Discrete Another Lean Six Sigma team determines the minimum sample size required for the proportion of DPW, Department of Public Works, service contracts that require rework at the approval meeting. From interviews, the team has concluded that approximately 25% of the contracts contain errors and require rework. They wish to determine the % requiring rework within 5%. 2  1.96  n =  .25(1  .25)  .05  n =(1536.64)(.1875) = 289 contracts UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 73
  • 74. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Exercise: Sample Size  Objective:  Determine the appropriate sample size  Instructions:  Use the pizza delivery example. The pizza is scheduled for the time the customer requests delivery.  The customer requirement is +/- 10 minutes from the scheduled delivery time  Estimated s = 7.16 minutes and D = 2 minutes  Estimated number of defects is 30% ( P = 0.30; D =5%)  Determine the minimum sample size for both continuous and discrete data UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 74
  • 75. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Exercise: Sample Size Answers Continuous 2 2 2  1.96s   1.96 * 7.16   14.03  n=  =  =  = 49.24  50  D   2   2  Discrete 2 2  1.96   1.96  n=  P(1  P) =   0.30(0.70) = 39.2 * 0.21 = 322.69  323 2  D   0.05  UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 75
  • 76. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Exercise: Sample Size Objective:  Determine the appropriate sample size Instructions:  Select one output indicator for your process  Determine the type of data (continuous / discrete)  Continuous - estimate “s” and D  Discrete - estimate D and P  Determine the minimum sample size required UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 76
  • 77. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Exercise: Sample Size Formula Objective:  Determine the appropriate sample size formula to use Instructions:  At your tables determine the right formula (proportion/discrete or continuous) to use and calculate the sample size for each situation 1.Estimate the average cycle time within 2 hours. The estimated standard deviation is 8 hours. What is the minimum number to sample? 2.A team collected 100 observations to determine the proportion defective. They found 20% to be defective. How accurately can they estimate the proportion defective? 3.You have a customer survey with 2 categorical questions and 8 interval statements. You estimate that at least one option of a categorical question will be answered by approximately 50% of the respondents and you want to be able to detect a difference within ± 5%. For the continuous statements you want to be able to detect a difference of at least ½ a point. The highest estimated standard deviation for any of the statements is 1.2. You expect the response rate to be 25%. How many surveys do you have to send out and how many completed surveys do you need returned? UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 77
  • 78. UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO Answers to Sampling Exercise 2 2  1.96s   1.96(8)  1. Continuous n=  =  = 62  D   2  2  1 . 96  2. Discrete/Proportioned n =   p (1  p )  D  2 1.96 100 = .2(1  .2) D2 D = .08 or  8% 2  1.96  3. Discrete Calculation n =   .5(1  .5) = 385  .05  2 Continuous  1.96(1.2)  n=  = 23  .5  Must send out 4* minimum sample or 4*385 = 1,540 UNCLASSIFIED / FOUO 78