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Russian E‐Commerce Market
                                     Behind the Numbers
                                                  March 2011



This research report focuses on the contrasts between the Russian e‐commerce market compared to US and
 other major international markets, from the perspective of a foreign company contemplating entering the
   Russian e‐commerce marketplace. It focuses on consumer‐oriented e‐commerce, also known as “B2C”.

This is an Executive Summary. The full report is available only to clients and partners of Interstice Consulting.

                                   Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting




                                        interstice
Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011


Executive Summary
Russia has one of the world’s          •   Russia has one of the world’s largest online populations, and
largest online populations, and will       will soon take over Germany as the largest market in Europe.
soon take over Germany as the
largest market in Europe.                             Internet Users, Age 15+, April 2010
                                                              (Source: comScore)




                                                                                    Has risen to 46.5
                                                                                    million as of
                                                                                    Autumn 2010
                                                                                    (Source: FOM)




                                       •   Russia presents a lucrative market to global e‐commerce
                                           players, especially those who have been successful in their
                                           home markets and have achieved a scale of operations where
                                           they are looking to international expansion to deliver the next
                                           phase of growth.

                                       •   At the same time, Russia presents a unique challenge to an
                                           international company. In addition to adapting to a different
                                           language and culture, there are profound differences in
                                           business and payment processes, as well as online advertising
                                           and marketing. Half‐hearted attempts to serve the Russian
                                           market are pointless: according to the most recent national
                                           census by Rosstat in 2002, less than 7 million Russians speak
                                           English (that’s less than 5% of the population). Even fewer
                                           would be interested in transacting with a foreign company
                                           having no local representation.

Homegrown companies have               •   These challenges have caused many of the global e‐commerce
adapted successful foreign business        players to defer entry into Russia, enabling the entrenchment
models and try to position                 of local companies which employ copycat business models. An
themselves as takeover candidates          example of this is social networking giant VKontakte, whose
                                           functionality and even interface bear a striking resemblance to
                                           Facebook’s.

The e‐commerce market in Russia        •   The Russian e‐commerce market is dominated by domestic
is dominated by domestic players,          Russian companies. In terms of overall volume, the greatest
and is very difficult for foreign          share of e‐commerce sales are in the travel and telecom
competitors to enter                       sectors, where all of the players have offline presences which
                                           provide assurance to consumers that they will have recourse
                                           to a “real” company in the event of a problem.




   interstice                                ‐2‐                            Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011

In terms of volume, most e‐          •   Moreover, major retailers such as Sedmoi Kontinent and
commerce transactions in Russia          Utkonos (groceries), M Video, Eldorado, Techno Sila and Ion
are made with companies having           (computers and electronics) maintain captive web‐based
both and online and offline              shops and account for the majority of “online” sales in these
presence                                 segments. Pure‐play Internet retailers are at a disadvantage
                                         due to the country’s poor logistics and payment infrastructure,
                                         as well as consumer mistrust. The majority of orders which
                                         originate on the Internet then enter an offline process and are
                                         finally made on a cash‐on‐delivery basis. In this sense, e‐
                                         commerce in Russia consists largely of “online ordering” as
                                         opposed to completing the entire transaction online (including
                                         verifying physical inventory, payment and shipment).

Two broad strategies to enter the    •   One strategy for entering the Russian market is via acquisition.
Russian market are by acquisition        Groupon, the fast‐growing US group‐buying e‐commerce giant
or through establishing a local          (which has also taken on Russian investors), has gone this
operation from the ground up             route by buying out Russia’s Darberry (one of at least half‐a‐
                                         dozen Groupon copycats) in August 2010. Darberry was
                                         launched a mere five months prior to its buyout by Groupon.

                                     •   There are a couple of major risks to this strategy. Firstly, the
                                         success of e‐commerce companies is generally not dependent
                                         on any patentable invention and is thus largely due to the
                                         individual dynamism of the founders and senior executives,
                                         many of whom are at “flight risk” of departing the company
                                         once acquired. Secondly, Russian law and business practices
                                         differ widely from international practices and an international
                                         company required to comply with laws and norms of general
                                         corporate governance in its home country will find many
                                         issues which, while commonplace for Russian companies,
                                         would be unacceptable and require immediate action in
                                         integrating the acquired company. It can be argued that such
                                         restrictions form a competitive disadvantage to
                                         internationally‐owned companies in Russia, not only in the
                                         Internet space but in the economy at large.

                                     •   A more enduring strategy would be to build out the Russian
                                         operations from the ground up, selecting staff and putting in
                                         place business practices and processes which are sustainable
                                         and consistent with the parent company’s practices. Given the
                                         rapid changes in the Internet and e‐commerce marketplace,
                                         this strategy is also not without its risks. However, the
                                         principal risk is that the local operation does not reach
                                         sufficient scale to be economically significant to the parent,
                                         rather than a potentially large financial hit from an acquisition
                                         gone awry. This is the approach adopted by eBay, which
                                         established its Russian‐language operation in February 2010.


Traditional foreign retailers have   •   The lure of Russia’s large population (140 million) has
had a tough time competing in            attracted foreign companies for hundreds of years, yet the
Russia                                   challenge in traditional retail has been the low population
                                         density (outside of Moscow) and a populace dispersed
                                         amongst nine time zones amid harsh weather conditions,
                                         combined with a weak transportation and storage
                                         infrastructure. A recent study ranked Russia number 125 out
                                         of 139 countries on the quality of its road infrastructure



   interstice                               ‐3‐                            Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011

                                         (Source: The Global Competitiveness Report, 2010‐11).
                                         Moreover, the breadth of the gap is quite shocking: Russia has
                                         approximately 44 km of paved roads per 1000 square km,
                                         compared to 1,805 km in Germany, 836 km in Poland, 478 km
                                         in India, and 80 km in China (Source: Rosstat). In this sense, e‐
                                         commerce opens up the promise of reaching Russian
                                         consumers without the need to build out costly physical retail
                                         infrastructure.

                                     •   Foreign companies have had a tough time breaking into
                                         Russian retail in any significant scale. The most successful
                                         examples have been Sweden’s IKEA, Germany’s METRO and
                                         OBI, and France’s Auchan. Since June 2009 IKEA has frozen its
                                         further expansion in Russia while it waits for permits for a
                                         couple of its newly‐built outlets. While not stating it publicly,
                                         the company is taking this stance as a protest against the
                                         requests for bribes by local inspectors.

                                     •   France’s Carrefour, the world’s largest hypermarket chain
                                         which is successful in many other countries including
                                         throughout Eastern Europe, abandoned the Russian market in
                                         October, 2009 after only four months of operations. It had
                                         been operating three outlets in different Russian cities.

                                     •   Global retail juggernaut Walmart of the US made an attempt
                                         to enter Russia by opening an office in Moscow and trying to
                                         buy out an existing retailer. However, after a 2‐year fruitless
                                         search, it closed down in late 2010.

                                     •   While these companies have cited the difficulty of making
                                         acquisitions in order to achieve sufficient scale, no doubt
                                         other reasons were at play, including the country’s notorious
                                         lack of transparency.

                                     •   At the same time, the lure of Russia’s numbers is still
                                         encouraging foreign investment. PepsiCo agreed in December
                                         2010 to buy a controlling stake in Wimm‐Bill‐Dann, one of
                                         Russia's leading producers of juice and dairy products, for $3.8
                                         billion. Indications are that PepsiCo will retain the local
                                         branding of Wimm‐Bill‐Dann’s products.

                                     •   Speaking strictly about e‐commerce, the transportability of
                                         international Internet brands to Russia is even more
                                         questionable. Google, Facebook and eBay are all struggling
                                         against their entrenched local competitors.


Internet penetration has been        •   Internet penetration and usage has been growing steadily.
growing steadily and underpins the       FOM statistics (Source: Internet in Russia, Autumn 2010) place
growth in Russia’s e‐commerce            penetration – in terms of monthly Internet users – at 40% of
potential                                the adult population, whereas Internet subscribers number
                                         46.5 million.




   interstice                               ‐4‐                            Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011



                                                 Internet Penetration in Russia (2003‐2010)
                                                              % of population




                                                   Internet Users in Russia (2003‐2010)
                                                                 millions




                                   •    This growth in usage and access supports the future growth in
                                        e‐commerce in Russia. Even through the recent Global
                                        Financial Crisis, Russia has maintained its position as the
                                        fastest‐growing Internet user base in Europe. Total users grew
                                        by about 15 million from Autumn 2008‐2010.

                                   •    International interest in the Russian Internet market is also
                                        growing, no doubt piqued by the headlines made by Russian‐
                                        based Digital Sky Technologies (now Mail.ru). Founded in
                                        2005, the company is backed by Aliser Ushmanov, a prominent
                                        Russian oligarch, and specializes in late‐stage investments in
                                        Internet‐based companies. It has invested large sums in global
                                        Internet leaders Zynga, Facebook and Groupon. Within Russia,
                                        it controls leading Russian e‐mail provider Mail.ru and its sister
                                        properties VKontakte and Odnoklassniki. Mail.ru raised
                                        US$912 million via a listing on the London Stock Exchange in
                                        October, 2010.




   interstice                              ‐5‐                            Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011

                                       •   The leading Russian search engine, Yandex, is also slated to go
                                           public in 2011. Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and Morgan
                                           Stanley have been appointed as lead underwriters for the
                                           offering, which could raise up to US$1 billion.



The overall backdrop for a lucrative   •   Broadband penetration is closely linked to the popularity of e‐
Russian e‐commerce market exists,          commerce. Broadband penetration nationwide stood at 26%
although the current market is             in 2009 with plans to grow to 60‐80% by 2015, although there
fairly small                               are vast regional differences. Broadband penetration in
                                           Moscow is currently over 80% vs. about 20% in the regions
                                           (Source: EBRD). Therefore, most of the growth will come from
                                           buildouts of the high speed network to Russia’s regions.
                                           Broadband growth in the regions will certainly open up more
                                           of the online shopping market, as online shopping “leapfrogs”
                                           bricks‐and‐mortar retail.

                                       •   Russians are highly educated and computer literate. Out of the
                                           online population of 46.5 million, almost all use the Internet to
                                           search for products and services (Source: Citibank/Google
                                           study, November 2010). The same study pegged online
                                           spending for 2010 at $20 billion (via bank cards alone), with
                                           another $1.7 billion spent via e‐wallets. However, stripping out
                                           the travel and telecom segments (for which the Internet is but
                                           one means of distribution) total online bank card spending in
                                           Russia comes out to around $7.2 billion. While this is a
                                           pittance for international standards (Amazon.com alone had
                                           revenues of $34.2 billion in 2010) the growth is, nonetheless,
                                           impressive. The authors of the study expect a 33% increase in
                                           bank card spending by 2012, driven by greater card issuance
                                           and an increasing comfort for consumers to buy online.

                                       •   Most Russians own their own flats and do not have consumer
                                           debt. Combined with a low 13% rate of personal income tax,
                                           and the common practice of receiving part of their salaries in
                                           (undeclared) cash, Russians have very high level of disposable
                                           income in relation to their declared gross income. Market
                                           estimates place disposable income at 70% of earned income,
                                           versus 40% for Western consumers (Source: Thomas White
                                           International).

                                       •   The social media trend is also prevalent in Russia. Russians
                                           exhibit the highest per‐capita hourly usage of social media
                                           sites at 9.8 hours per visitor, roughly twice the world average
                                           (Source: comScore, August 2010). However, accounting for a
                                           large part of Russia’s lead in this statistic is no doubt the
                                           country’s lax intellectual property enforcement. The largest
                                           social media network, VKontakte, has a feature which enables
                                           peer‐to‐peer streaming of music and other media files.

                                       •   Particularly in the soft goods segments, urban Russia
                                           manifests a very designer‐label conscious, conspicuous
                                           spending culture (admittedly, this is an unscientific
                                           assessment). Part of the propensity to save rather than spend
                                           is the lack of trust in financial institutions. People would rather
                                           buy hard goods than take their risks with banks and



   interstice                                 ‐6‐                             Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011

                                        investments. Russia has an extremely low participation rates in
                                        public financial market investments (in relation to income).
                                        Recent estimates are that individual investors in Russian stock
                                        markets amount to only 6 million (Source: Public Opinion
                                        Foundation, 2007).



But other factors impede the       •    Given a choice, Russian consumers prefer to deal in cash.
current attractiveness of e‐            Payment cards were used for only 3.8% of retail purchases in
commerce                                2009 (Source: Central Bank of Russia). This hesitation to use
                                        bank cards extends to online purchases as well, and is
                                        especially true when dealing with new or locally‐unknown
                                        companies and brands which lack a bricks‐and‐mortar
                                        presence.

                                   •    The financial services sector remains under developed.
                                        Surveys show that only one‐third of Russians with money to
                                        save trust their money to banks, and about one‐half keep cash
                                        at home. Ninety percent of Russians do not invest in the stock
                                        market, and do not intend to (Source: Russia Profile, 2008).

                                   •    Moreover, many consumers don’t even possess credit or debit
                                        cards. Payments are made using cash kiosks, ATMs and,
                                        increasingly, online through the websites of their banks. Many
                                        person‐to‐person payments are made through SMS‐based
                                        billing systems maintained by telecom service providers. The
                                        financial turmoils of 1991 and 1998 led to vast consumer
                                        disillusionment with financial institutions and, indeed, a
                                        mistrust of money itself.

                                   •    However, things are changing. The relative strength of the
                                        Ruble and stability of the financial markets under the Putin
                                        regime has fostered increasing confidence in banks, and the
                                        current generation of younger Russians (who are more likely
                                        to have traveled abroad and also inclined to be early adopters
                                        of e‐commerce) have not experienced any financial shocks.

                                   •    The public postal system (Russian Post) is widely regarded as
                                        slow, inefficient, unreliable and corrupt. Few consumers
                                        would be confident enough in their services to agree to having
                                        their online purchases sent via the regular post. Russian Post
                                        offers premium categories of services which offer delivery
                                        confirmation, and is the local affiliate of the global EMS
                                        courier service. Private courier companies have also stepped
                                        in to bridge the gap in the marketplace, but at higher rates.

                                   •    Import regulations are specific to Russia and introduce higher
                                        costs and delays for imported goods. While not specific to e‐
                                        commerce, the system is unpredictable and can involve long
                                        delays as products sit at the border waiting for proper
                                        documentation, and as negotiations on the market value of
                                        the shipment are carried out with customs officials (to which
                                        taxes and duties are to be applied).




   interstice                             ‐7‐                            Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011



The Russian e‐commerce market is   •    An array of home‐grown payment methods serve the needs of
developing to overcome barriers         Russian e‐commerce, including online credit card payment
with an array of home‐grown             processors, payment kiosks, e‐wallets, branch‐based person‐
solutions                               to‐person payment networks, and cash couriers. Direct bank
                                        transfer is also an option offered by many Russian e‐
                                        commerce companies.

                                          Popular Payment Methods for Russian E‐commerce




Forecasts of online spending are   •    A study of Russian e‐commerce co‐authored by Citibank and
uniformly rosy                          Google was released in November 2010. While its scope only
                                        covers spending on bank cards, it does provide some useful
                                        insights into Russian e‐commerce.

                                   •    In relative terms, online spending in Russia accounts for less
                                        than 1% of the total retail market. Another indication of the
                                        huge room for growth in online spending, is that such
                                        spending accounts for less than 0.5% of Russia’s GDP
                                        compared with 7% in the UK (although this is only comparing
                                        bank card spending).

                                   •    More specific indicators of interest in online buying are also
                                        very positive. Google tracks related search terms and reports
                                        that since 2009, the query “buy” has grown twice, while the
                                        query “buy online” has grown three times.




   interstice                              ‐8‐                           Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011

The top web properties in Russia      Top 10 Most‐Visited Websites – Globally and in Russia
differ markedly from the top global
web properties                                 Global                      Russia
                                       1       Google (google.com)         Яндекс (yandex.ru)
                                       2       Facebook (facebook.com)     Почта@Mail.ru (mail.ru)
                                       3       YouTube (youtube.com)       Google (google.ru)
                                       4       Yahoo! (yahoo.com)          V Kontakte (vkontakte.ru)
                                       5       Windows Live (live.com)     Google (google.com)
                                       6       Blogger.com (blogger.com)   YouTube (youtube.com)
                                       7       Baidu.com (baidu.com)       Wikipedia (wikipedia.org)
                                       8       Wikipedia (wikipedia.org)   LiveJournal (livejournal.com)
                                       9       Twitter (twitter.com)       Одноклассники.ru (odnoklassniki.ru)
                                       10      QQ.com (qq.com)             Facebook (facebook.com)
                                      (Source: Alexa, February 2011)



                                      Observations:

                                       •    Russian search engine Yandex is far more popular than
                                            Google, and its lead is holding steady over time. For the month
                                            of February 2011, Yandex had a search market share of
                                            approximately 65.0% vs. Google’s 21.4%. In February 2010,
                                            Yandex had a 61.9% share vs. Google’s 21.8% (Source:
                                            Liveinternet.ru)

                                       •    Similarly, local operator VKontakte remains the king in the
                                            realm of social media. Russian‐language social media
                                            properties LiveJournal and Odnoklassniki also outrank
                                            Facebook in terms of popularity. Although Facebook is playing
                                            rapid catch‐up, nearly doubling its reach between February
                                            2010 and February 2011, it still attracts only about 10% of
                                            VKontakte’s audience (Source: Liveinternet.ru, TNS). However,
                                            a strict comparison of the two sites is somewhat misleading as
                                            one of VKontakte’s most sticky features is live streaming of
                                            MP3s, which is a murky area in terms of intellectual property.
                                            Facebook has just cracked the Top 10 most popular websites
                                            in Russia, according to Alexa.

                                       •    Twitter is not yet as popular in Russia as in the rest of the
                                            world, but is also growing rapidly and is a commonly‐used
                                            mode of communication by President Dmitry Medvedev.




   interstice                                   ‐9‐                             Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011


Russian Internet “Hall of Fame”   Companies big and small can find their counterparts in the Russian
… or “Hall of Shame”?             Internet space:

                                           You say…                       Наш ответ…




                                  *acquired by Groupon



Takeaways                         Would you like to be next?

                                  Globally‐focused companies looking for the next phase of their
                                  growth realize that this won’t come from the developed US or
                                  European markets but rather the emerging markets of Asia, Latin
                                  America and Eastern Europe. Russia, with its large population and
                                  high disposable income per capita, is a lucrative retail market and
                                  will soon be the largest consumer market in Europe.


   interstice                             ‐ 10 ‐                        Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011


                                      Legions of enterprising Russians are scouring the market for
                                      successful foreign business models and attempting to adapt them
                                      to Russia before the foreign companies wake up. Their tactics range
                                      from simple domain‐name squatting, on the low end, to wholesale
                                      “adaptation” of functionality and even interface. Rest assured that
                                      if you have even a moderately successful e‐commerce business,
                                      someone in Russia is already working to bring your idea to Russian
                                      consumers.

                                      The Russian e‐commerce market is as hot as it’s ever been.

                                      Now is the time to act.




                             ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐

   This is an Executive Summary of “Russian E‐Commerce Market – Behind the Numbers, March 2011”

             The full report is available only to clients and partners of Interstice Consulting.




                                                                                         Interstice Consulting LLC
                                                                                        Россия 119634, г Москва,
                                                                                      Скульптора Мухиной ул, 18
                                                                                 moscow@intersticeconsulting.com




   interstice                                  ‐ 11 ‐                          Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011


About Interstice Consulting Russia
In Russia, Interstice Consulting offers existing, foreign, e‐businesses a full solution to adapt their businesses
to the Russian e‐commerce market. Our services include:
     •   Consulting on e‐business strategy in Russia
     •   Business setup and administration
               o Business registration and ongoing administration
               o Sourcing of local directors and representatives
               o Domain name registration and ongoing administration
               o Tax registration and compliance
               o Intellectual property protection
               o Accounting and recordkeeping
               o Bank account setup and administration
     •   Web development and online marketing
               o Converting existing website to Russian language and to appeal to the behavioural
                    characteristics of Russian Internet users
               o Usability testing
               o Designing and implementing Russia‐specific online marketing and advertising campaigns
               o Search engine optimization for Russian language key words and phrases, in view of
                    algorithms used by popular local search engines
               o Website maintenance, updates and hosting
     •   Customer contact, service and relationship management in Russian language
     •   Logistics
               o Import of physical goods and customs clearance
               o Warehousing
               o Distribution/delivery
     •   Payment collection, processing and crediting

The key benefits to our e‐business localization services include:

    •    A "one‐window" approach: we provide a complete, end‐to‐end solution. Our client deals only
         with Interstice Consulting and we manage all coordination with our network of Russian specialists.
    •    Speed to market: we are experienced in bringing foreign e‐businesses to Russia and have a
         standardized methodology and project management
    •    Risk reduction: our senior staff are experienced in the standards of international business and
         clients have complete access to their financial and operating records, with ability to verify/audit as
         appropriate
    •    Flexible cooperation models:
              o Consultation only: we can work purely as your consultant on a time and materials basis;
                  or
              o Partnership: we can act as your representative in Russia and share in the risks and
                  rewards of the business. This enables the client to achieve a lower initial investment as
                  well as the benefits of outsourcing of operations, rather than investing in an office,
                  warehouse, and employees from the outset. Under this approach our ultimate
                  compensation for localization services is tied to the revenues generated from the client's
                  Russian operations.


To discuss your entry into the Russian e‐business market, please contact us via e‐mail on:
moscow@intersticeconsulting.com




    interstice                                   ‐ 12 ‐                          Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting

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Russian E-commerce Market Behind the Numbers Report Summary

  • 1. Russian E‐Commerce Market Behind the Numbers March 2011 This research report focuses on the contrasts between the Russian e‐commerce market compared to US and other major international markets, from the perspective of a foreign company contemplating entering the Russian e‐commerce marketplace. It focuses on consumer‐oriented e‐commerce, also known as “B2C”. This is an Executive Summary. The full report is available only to clients and partners of Interstice Consulting. Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting interstice
  • 2. Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011 Executive Summary Russia has one of the world’s • Russia has one of the world’s largest online populations, and largest online populations, and will will soon take over Germany as the largest market in Europe. soon take over Germany as the largest market in Europe. Internet Users, Age 15+, April 2010 (Source: comScore) Has risen to 46.5 million as of Autumn 2010 (Source: FOM) • Russia presents a lucrative market to global e‐commerce players, especially those who have been successful in their home markets and have achieved a scale of operations where they are looking to international expansion to deliver the next phase of growth. • At the same time, Russia presents a unique challenge to an international company. In addition to adapting to a different language and culture, there are profound differences in business and payment processes, as well as online advertising and marketing. Half‐hearted attempts to serve the Russian market are pointless: according to the most recent national census by Rosstat in 2002, less than 7 million Russians speak English (that’s less than 5% of the population). Even fewer would be interested in transacting with a foreign company having no local representation. Homegrown companies have • These challenges have caused many of the global e‐commerce adapted successful foreign business players to defer entry into Russia, enabling the entrenchment models and try to position of local companies which employ copycat business models. An themselves as takeover candidates example of this is social networking giant VKontakte, whose functionality and even interface bear a striking resemblance to Facebook’s. The e‐commerce market in Russia • The Russian e‐commerce market is dominated by domestic is dominated by domestic players, Russian companies. In terms of overall volume, the greatest and is very difficult for foreign share of e‐commerce sales are in the travel and telecom competitors to enter sectors, where all of the players have offline presences which provide assurance to consumers that they will have recourse to a “real” company in the event of a problem. interstice ‐2‐ Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
  • 3. Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011 In terms of volume, most e‐ • Moreover, major retailers such as Sedmoi Kontinent and commerce transactions in Russia Utkonos (groceries), M Video, Eldorado, Techno Sila and Ion are made with companies having (computers and electronics) maintain captive web‐based both and online and offline shops and account for the majority of “online” sales in these presence segments. Pure‐play Internet retailers are at a disadvantage due to the country’s poor logistics and payment infrastructure, as well as consumer mistrust. The majority of orders which originate on the Internet then enter an offline process and are finally made on a cash‐on‐delivery basis. In this sense, e‐ commerce in Russia consists largely of “online ordering” as opposed to completing the entire transaction online (including verifying physical inventory, payment and shipment). Two broad strategies to enter the • One strategy for entering the Russian market is via acquisition. Russian market are by acquisition Groupon, the fast‐growing US group‐buying e‐commerce giant or through establishing a local (which has also taken on Russian investors), has gone this operation from the ground up route by buying out Russia’s Darberry (one of at least half‐a‐ dozen Groupon copycats) in August 2010. Darberry was launched a mere five months prior to its buyout by Groupon. • There are a couple of major risks to this strategy. Firstly, the success of e‐commerce companies is generally not dependent on any patentable invention and is thus largely due to the individual dynamism of the founders and senior executives, many of whom are at “flight risk” of departing the company once acquired. Secondly, Russian law and business practices differ widely from international practices and an international company required to comply with laws and norms of general corporate governance in its home country will find many issues which, while commonplace for Russian companies, would be unacceptable and require immediate action in integrating the acquired company. It can be argued that such restrictions form a competitive disadvantage to internationally‐owned companies in Russia, not only in the Internet space but in the economy at large. • A more enduring strategy would be to build out the Russian operations from the ground up, selecting staff and putting in place business practices and processes which are sustainable and consistent with the parent company’s practices. Given the rapid changes in the Internet and e‐commerce marketplace, this strategy is also not without its risks. However, the principal risk is that the local operation does not reach sufficient scale to be economically significant to the parent, rather than a potentially large financial hit from an acquisition gone awry. This is the approach adopted by eBay, which established its Russian‐language operation in February 2010. Traditional foreign retailers have • The lure of Russia’s large population (140 million) has had a tough time competing in attracted foreign companies for hundreds of years, yet the Russia challenge in traditional retail has been the low population density (outside of Moscow) and a populace dispersed amongst nine time zones amid harsh weather conditions, combined with a weak transportation and storage infrastructure. A recent study ranked Russia number 125 out of 139 countries on the quality of its road infrastructure interstice ‐3‐ Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
  • 4. Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011 (Source: The Global Competitiveness Report, 2010‐11). Moreover, the breadth of the gap is quite shocking: Russia has approximately 44 km of paved roads per 1000 square km, compared to 1,805 km in Germany, 836 km in Poland, 478 km in India, and 80 km in China (Source: Rosstat). In this sense, e‐ commerce opens up the promise of reaching Russian consumers without the need to build out costly physical retail infrastructure. • Foreign companies have had a tough time breaking into Russian retail in any significant scale. The most successful examples have been Sweden’s IKEA, Germany’s METRO and OBI, and France’s Auchan. Since June 2009 IKEA has frozen its further expansion in Russia while it waits for permits for a couple of its newly‐built outlets. While not stating it publicly, the company is taking this stance as a protest against the requests for bribes by local inspectors. • France’s Carrefour, the world’s largest hypermarket chain which is successful in many other countries including throughout Eastern Europe, abandoned the Russian market in October, 2009 after only four months of operations. It had been operating three outlets in different Russian cities. • Global retail juggernaut Walmart of the US made an attempt to enter Russia by opening an office in Moscow and trying to buy out an existing retailer. However, after a 2‐year fruitless search, it closed down in late 2010. • While these companies have cited the difficulty of making acquisitions in order to achieve sufficient scale, no doubt other reasons were at play, including the country’s notorious lack of transparency. • At the same time, the lure of Russia’s numbers is still encouraging foreign investment. PepsiCo agreed in December 2010 to buy a controlling stake in Wimm‐Bill‐Dann, one of Russia's leading producers of juice and dairy products, for $3.8 billion. Indications are that PepsiCo will retain the local branding of Wimm‐Bill‐Dann’s products. • Speaking strictly about e‐commerce, the transportability of international Internet brands to Russia is even more questionable. Google, Facebook and eBay are all struggling against their entrenched local competitors. Internet penetration has been • Internet penetration and usage has been growing steadily. growing steadily and underpins the FOM statistics (Source: Internet in Russia, Autumn 2010) place growth in Russia’s e‐commerce penetration – in terms of monthly Internet users – at 40% of potential the adult population, whereas Internet subscribers number 46.5 million. interstice ‐4‐ Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
  • 5. Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011 Internet Penetration in Russia (2003‐2010) % of population Internet Users in Russia (2003‐2010) millions • This growth in usage and access supports the future growth in e‐commerce in Russia. Even through the recent Global Financial Crisis, Russia has maintained its position as the fastest‐growing Internet user base in Europe. Total users grew by about 15 million from Autumn 2008‐2010. • International interest in the Russian Internet market is also growing, no doubt piqued by the headlines made by Russian‐ based Digital Sky Technologies (now Mail.ru). Founded in 2005, the company is backed by Aliser Ushmanov, a prominent Russian oligarch, and specializes in late‐stage investments in Internet‐based companies. It has invested large sums in global Internet leaders Zynga, Facebook and Groupon. Within Russia, it controls leading Russian e‐mail provider Mail.ru and its sister properties VKontakte and Odnoklassniki. Mail.ru raised US$912 million via a listing on the London Stock Exchange in October, 2010. interstice ‐5‐ Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
  • 6. Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011 • The leading Russian search engine, Yandex, is also slated to go public in 2011. Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank and Morgan Stanley have been appointed as lead underwriters for the offering, which could raise up to US$1 billion. The overall backdrop for a lucrative • Broadband penetration is closely linked to the popularity of e‐ Russian e‐commerce market exists, commerce. Broadband penetration nationwide stood at 26% although the current market is in 2009 with plans to grow to 60‐80% by 2015, although there fairly small are vast regional differences. Broadband penetration in Moscow is currently over 80% vs. about 20% in the regions (Source: EBRD). Therefore, most of the growth will come from buildouts of the high speed network to Russia’s regions. Broadband growth in the regions will certainly open up more of the online shopping market, as online shopping “leapfrogs” bricks‐and‐mortar retail. • Russians are highly educated and computer literate. Out of the online population of 46.5 million, almost all use the Internet to search for products and services (Source: Citibank/Google study, November 2010). The same study pegged online spending for 2010 at $20 billion (via bank cards alone), with another $1.7 billion spent via e‐wallets. However, stripping out the travel and telecom segments (for which the Internet is but one means of distribution) total online bank card spending in Russia comes out to around $7.2 billion. While this is a pittance for international standards (Amazon.com alone had revenues of $34.2 billion in 2010) the growth is, nonetheless, impressive. The authors of the study expect a 33% increase in bank card spending by 2012, driven by greater card issuance and an increasing comfort for consumers to buy online. • Most Russians own their own flats and do not have consumer debt. Combined with a low 13% rate of personal income tax, and the common practice of receiving part of their salaries in (undeclared) cash, Russians have very high level of disposable income in relation to their declared gross income. Market estimates place disposable income at 70% of earned income, versus 40% for Western consumers (Source: Thomas White International). • The social media trend is also prevalent in Russia. Russians exhibit the highest per‐capita hourly usage of social media sites at 9.8 hours per visitor, roughly twice the world average (Source: comScore, August 2010). However, accounting for a large part of Russia’s lead in this statistic is no doubt the country’s lax intellectual property enforcement. The largest social media network, VKontakte, has a feature which enables peer‐to‐peer streaming of music and other media files. • Particularly in the soft goods segments, urban Russia manifests a very designer‐label conscious, conspicuous spending culture (admittedly, this is an unscientific assessment). Part of the propensity to save rather than spend is the lack of trust in financial institutions. People would rather buy hard goods than take their risks with banks and interstice ‐6‐ Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
  • 7. Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011 investments. Russia has an extremely low participation rates in public financial market investments (in relation to income). Recent estimates are that individual investors in Russian stock markets amount to only 6 million (Source: Public Opinion Foundation, 2007). But other factors impede the • Given a choice, Russian consumers prefer to deal in cash. current attractiveness of e‐ Payment cards were used for only 3.8% of retail purchases in commerce 2009 (Source: Central Bank of Russia). This hesitation to use bank cards extends to online purchases as well, and is especially true when dealing with new or locally‐unknown companies and brands which lack a bricks‐and‐mortar presence. • The financial services sector remains under developed. Surveys show that only one‐third of Russians with money to save trust their money to banks, and about one‐half keep cash at home. Ninety percent of Russians do not invest in the stock market, and do not intend to (Source: Russia Profile, 2008). • Moreover, many consumers don’t even possess credit or debit cards. Payments are made using cash kiosks, ATMs and, increasingly, online through the websites of their banks. Many person‐to‐person payments are made through SMS‐based billing systems maintained by telecom service providers. The financial turmoils of 1991 and 1998 led to vast consumer disillusionment with financial institutions and, indeed, a mistrust of money itself. • However, things are changing. The relative strength of the Ruble and stability of the financial markets under the Putin regime has fostered increasing confidence in banks, and the current generation of younger Russians (who are more likely to have traveled abroad and also inclined to be early adopters of e‐commerce) have not experienced any financial shocks. • The public postal system (Russian Post) is widely regarded as slow, inefficient, unreliable and corrupt. Few consumers would be confident enough in their services to agree to having their online purchases sent via the regular post. Russian Post offers premium categories of services which offer delivery confirmation, and is the local affiliate of the global EMS courier service. Private courier companies have also stepped in to bridge the gap in the marketplace, but at higher rates. • Import regulations are specific to Russia and introduce higher costs and delays for imported goods. While not specific to e‐ commerce, the system is unpredictable and can involve long delays as products sit at the border waiting for proper documentation, and as negotiations on the market value of the shipment are carried out with customs officials (to which taxes and duties are to be applied). interstice ‐7‐ Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
  • 8. Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011 The Russian e‐commerce market is • An array of home‐grown payment methods serve the needs of developing to overcome barriers Russian e‐commerce, including online credit card payment with an array of home‐grown processors, payment kiosks, e‐wallets, branch‐based person‐ solutions to‐person payment networks, and cash couriers. Direct bank transfer is also an option offered by many Russian e‐ commerce companies. Popular Payment Methods for Russian E‐commerce Forecasts of online spending are • A study of Russian e‐commerce co‐authored by Citibank and uniformly rosy Google was released in November 2010. While its scope only covers spending on bank cards, it does provide some useful insights into Russian e‐commerce. • In relative terms, online spending in Russia accounts for less than 1% of the total retail market. Another indication of the huge room for growth in online spending, is that such spending accounts for less than 0.5% of Russia’s GDP compared with 7% in the UK (although this is only comparing bank card spending). • More specific indicators of interest in online buying are also very positive. Google tracks related search terms and reports that since 2009, the query “buy” has grown twice, while the query “buy online” has grown three times. interstice ‐8‐ Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
  • 9. Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011 The top web properties in Russia Top 10 Most‐Visited Websites – Globally and in Russia differ markedly from the top global web properties Global Russia 1 Google (google.com) Яндекс (yandex.ru) 2 Facebook (facebook.com) Почта@Mail.ru (mail.ru) 3 YouTube (youtube.com) Google (google.ru) 4 Yahoo! (yahoo.com) V Kontakte (vkontakte.ru) 5 Windows Live (live.com) Google (google.com) 6 Blogger.com (blogger.com) YouTube (youtube.com) 7 Baidu.com (baidu.com) Wikipedia (wikipedia.org) 8 Wikipedia (wikipedia.org) LiveJournal (livejournal.com) 9 Twitter (twitter.com) Одноклассники.ru (odnoklassniki.ru) 10 QQ.com (qq.com) Facebook (facebook.com) (Source: Alexa, February 2011) Observations: • Russian search engine Yandex is far more popular than Google, and its lead is holding steady over time. For the month of February 2011, Yandex had a search market share of approximately 65.0% vs. Google’s 21.4%. In February 2010, Yandex had a 61.9% share vs. Google’s 21.8% (Source: Liveinternet.ru) • Similarly, local operator VKontakte remains the king in the realm of social media. Russian‐language social media properties LiveJournal and Odnoklassniki also outrank Facebook in terms of popularity. Although Facebook is playing rapid catch‐up, nearly doubling its reach between February 2010 and February 2011, it still attracts only about 10% of VKontakte’s audience (Source: Liveinternet.ru, TNS). However, a strict comparison of the two sites is somewhat misleading as one of VKontakte’s most sticky features is live streaming of MP3s, which is a murky area in terms of intellectual property. Facebook has just cracked the Top 10 most popular websites in Russia, according to Alexa. • Twitter is not yet as popular in Russia as in the rest of the world, but is also growing rapidly and is a commonly‐used mode of communication by President Dmitry Medvedev. interstice ‐9‐ Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
  • 10. Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011 Russian Internet “Hall of Fame” Companies big and small can find their counterparts in the Russian … or “Hall of Shame”? Internet space: You say… Наш ответ… *acquired by Groupon Takeaways Would you like to be next? Globally‐focused companies looking for the next phase of their growth realize that this won’t come from the developed US or European markets but rather the emerging markets of Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe. Russia, with its large population and high disposable income per capita, is a lucrative retail market and will soon be the largest consumer market in Europe. interstice ‐ 10 ‐ Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
  • 11. Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011 Legions of enterprising Russians are scouring the market for successful foreign business models and attempting to adapt them to Russia before the foreign companies wake up. Their tactics range from simple domain‐name squatting, on the low end, to wholesale “adaptation” of functionality and even interface. Rest assured that if you have even a moderately successful e‐commerce business, someone in Russia is already working to bring your idea to Russian consumers. The Russian e‐commerce market is as hot as it’s ever been. Now is the time to act. ‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐‐ This is an Executive Summary of “Russian E‐Commerce Market – Behind the Numbers, March 2011” The full report is available only to clients and partners of Interstice Consulting. Interstice Consulting LLC Россия 119634, г Москва, Скульптора Мухиной ул, 18 moscow@intersticeconsulting.com interstice ‐ 11 ‐ Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting
  • 12. Russian E‐commerce Market, March 2011 About Interstice Consulting Russia In Russia, Interstice Consulting offers existing, foreign, e‐businesses a full solution to adapt their businesses to the Russian e‐commerce market. Our services include: • Consulting on e‐business strategy in Russia • Business setup and administration o Business registration and ongoing administration o Sourcing of local directors and representatives o Domain name registration and ongoing administration o Tax registration and compliance o Intellectual property protection o Accounting and recordkeeping o Bank account setup and administration • Web development and online marketing o Converting existing website to Russian language and to appeal to the behavioural characteristics of Russian Internet users o Usability testing o Designing and implementing Russia‐specific online marketing and advertising campaigns o Search engine optimization for Russian language key words and phrases, in view of algorithms used by popular local search engines o Website maintenance, updates and hosting • Customer contact, service and relationship management in Russian language • Logistics o Import of physical goods and customs clearance o Warehousing o Distribution/delivery • Payment collection, processing and crediting The key benefits to our e‐business localization services include: • A "one‐window" approach: we provide a complete, end‐to‐end solution. Our client deals only with Interstice Consulting and we manage all coordination with our network of Russian specialists. • Speed to market: we are experienced in bringing foreign e‐businesses to Russia and have a standardized methodology and project management • Risk reduction: our senior staff are experienced in the standards of international business and clients have complete access to their financial and operating records, with ability to verify/audit as appropriate • Flexible cooperation models: o Consultation only: we can work purely as your consultant on a time and materials basis; or o Partnership: we can act as your representative in Russia and share in the risks and rewards of the business. This enables the client to achieve a lower initial investment as well as the benefits of outsourcing of operations, rather than investing in an office, warehouse, and employees from the outset. Under this approach our ultimate compensation for localization services is tied to the revenues generated from the client's Russian operations. To discuss your entry into the Russian e‐business market, please contact us via e‐mail on: moscow@intersticeconsulting.com interstice ‐ 12 ‐ Copyright © 2011, Interstice Consulting