Insights on the evolving European venture scene amid economic downturn
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Saul Klein, Web2Expo, Berlin 2008
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Insights on the evolving European venture scene amid economic downturn
- 1. Some thoughts on the European Venture scene Saul Klein saul@indexventures.com Web2Expo – Berlin October 22, 2008
- 2. The weather looks pretty terrible right now
- 3. No wonder Jason was getting depressed
- 4. The Valley is seriously downbeat
- 5. Though Dave McClure did shout out a “get over it”
- 6. Fact is start ups are really tough
- 7. You have no customers
- 8. No money
- 9. You and your team are fighting an imaginary war
- 10. Armed just with some big ideas
- 11. But hey, we’ve fallen from greater heights
- 12. Founded IPOVC Some of the greats started in depressions
- 13. Founded IPO VC >> ? Many major winners started during and after the last bubble
- 14. Now the Internet is nearly 6x the size of 2001 Hosts
- 15. How we spend our time online has shifted radically
- 16. Big 3 Social 14 Minutes 159 bn 141 bn Mins/Visitor 5 13 Page Views 216 bn 296 bn Pages/Visitor 125 583 This shift will have big, long term repercussions
- 17. We’re living in a new technical world order
- 18. Firefox has 42% market share!!!
- 19. We now have substantial shared “public” resources
- 20. New platforms are changing infrastructure and distribution costs
- 21. Free resources exist to support and educate start-ups 8 hubs 80+ cities
- 23. We will almost certainly face severe and sustained recessions - 61% YTD - 63% YTD - 49% YTD - 40% YTD - 62% YTD - 56% YTD
- 24. But where the Internet is used has changed dramatically – its not just the US anymore
- 25. There is still a lot of capital to invest in Europe
- 26. Capital will look to back people who understand the new reality
- 28. Raise enough capital. Stay Strong. Get Paying Customers. Cut costs. Get to break even Bootstrap Like Crazy. Focus. Don’t panic. Make products people want.
- 29. Whatever works for you use it. Good luck
- 32. Latest figures show European investment is going up
- 33. Europe already had three $ bn investment hubs
- 34. Why break-even and capital are important
Notas del editor
- http://calacanis.com/2008/09/29/the-startup-depression/
- http://www.slideshare.net/eldon/sequoia-capital-on-startups-and-the-economic-downturn-presentation?type=powerpoint
- http://500hats.typepad.com/500blogs/2008/10/fear-is-the-min.html
- Serious depressions in early 80s
- Web is huge and growing
- This is an incredibly international group – which is a key concept in the new world
- Advertisers ultimately pay for engagement – not just reach. The social services have both – they need to figure out how to scale the advertising model. This will come – it has to for everyone’s sake. The consequence is that they (and IM) are the new portals – Yahoo (as we can already see) is toast or needs to be reinvented.
- Open source has taken over the technical world. Maybe the mixture of open and control, like the Chinese model works – they Have annual GDP growth over 10%, even bad estimates are 7-8% while the “developed” world is staring down 0-2% at best.
- This was impossible 7 years ago – when Netscape sold to AOL it was game over in the browser war. Watch Chrome take 20%+ by 2010
- Knowledge. Commerce. Now images. This is a profound shift and changes they way we can share knowledge and do business.
- The cloud is only just beginning.
- What a time to be an entrepreneur – so much knowledge out there and so much support http://www.seedcamp.com/ http://opencoffee.ning.com/ http://www.paulgraham.com/badeconomy.html http://www.techstars.org/
- Peers in over 80 cities aorund the world
- But times are really bad – and could be for many years. The trailing indicators – steel, gold, financial services, energy, tech/media and telecoms are all very negative right now. People are spoke. Some major economies will go into depression.
- Web is huge and no longer American…. It is global. Look to China, Russia, India (mobile web), Brazil, Poland, Japan, Korea, Turkey etc to really start becoming even more major as web forces. Of course the UK, France and Germany are already multi-billion $$ web markets and Spain is emerging as a serious force and gateway to Latin America. This is the most profound impact – that I think the US (and the Valley) does not fully get – the web is global, and so will innovation.
- And elsewhere – VCs have plenty to deploy
- If you get this new world and know how to take advantage – you have a great shot at building a killer company. Think different
- Capital will concentrate – big funds will get bigger, small ones may disappear and only professional money will stay in this market