Two competing visions for the future in a post-PC era - mobile, represented by Michael AM Davies from Endeavour Partners, and Enchanted Objects, represented by David Rose. Big thanks to Jennifer Lum, Adam Laughlin, and Ari Adler from IDEO

1. Competing Visions for the
Future
Post-PC Era
@MITEFCMB
#MITForum
October 9, 2012

2. Competing Visions
• Two seemingly competing visions for the future
• Friendly smack-down (or so I was promised)
• Tonight = “The Voice” for the most powerful idea
• Who will win?
• You decide!

3. Lora Kratchounova,
Scratch Marketing + Media
• Twitter: @ScratchMM
• Principal at Scratch M+M
• MIT Enterprise Forum Vice Chair,
Innovation and Startup Committee
• Inspired by what the MIT Enterprise Forum has to offer
• Inspired by compelling visions for the future

4. The Future is Mobile
• The future is going to be mobile
• Mobile phones/tablets (mostly by Apple) =
the dominant way we interact with the
world around us
• The mobile phone/tablet becomes our
universal “remote control”

5. The Mobile Revolution
• Through Q1 2012, just 2 years after Apple
shipped the initial iPad, Apple has sold 67
million of them
– It took Apple 24 years to sell that many Macs
– Over 3 years for that many iPhones
– 5 years for that many iPods
• 1.2 billion smartphones over the next 5
years, about 40 % of all handset shipments
(ABIResearch)

6. How Mobile Are We?

7. How Mobile Are We?

8. Michael Davies,
Endeavour Partners
• The Future is Mobile
• @MichaelAMDavies
• CEO of Endeavour Partners; Expert
witness in the DoJ ATT/T-Mobile merger
• Senior Lecturer at MIT at the Systems Division
• Guest Lecturer at Harvard Business School and
London Business School

9. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
M ichael Davies spends his tim e advising and teaching
Education Experience Expertise
Masters of Arts, Strategy Consulting Expert positions
University of Cambridge • Chairman, • Senior Lecturer, MIT
• Electronic Sciences Endeavour Partners
• Guest Lecturer,
• Engineering • Chairman, London Business School
Mercator Partners
Master of Engineering, • Board of Advisors,
University of Durham • Principal, US Military Academy,
GeoPartners Research Systems Engineering
• Cybernetics and Robotics
Executive Management
• Microelectronics • Expert Witness in AT& T/T-
• Head of Strategy, Mobile case
• Management Science
BellSouth International Department of Justice
MBA, (now Vodafone)
London Business School • Massachusetts Technology
Strategy Consulting Leadership Council
• Business strategy, technology • Manager,
management and decision • Executive Committee,
Boston Consulting Group IEEE
science
• Consultant,
• Doctoral level w ork on systems • Board of Advisors,
Braxton Associates
dynamics and systems thinking Motorola Research
(now Deloitte)
Postgraduate work, Engineering • R& D Board,
Harvard Business School Telecom New Zealand
• Robotics and cybernetics
• Innovation & Organization engineer,
Mars Electronics
2" 3 October 2012

10. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
W hat are you going to do with your future, your life?
3 3 October 2012

11. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
App phones dominate value High volume and value: 2.9 billion app phones sold globally, 5.5 billion installed base by
creation and capture in the digital 2018; $416 billion in value; important associated service revenues; shift from native to
ecosystem HTML5
Developing world will dominate
Developing world is largest source of volume with 65% of market in 2018; developed
volume; developed world will world leads in device profit with 63% in 2018
dominate value
There will be significant difference in adoption, selection and usage across cohorts; the
Consumer cohorts shape context
major challenge is crossing the chasm to mainstream for digital immigrants in the
and behavior developed world
End to end experience drives consumers’ purchase criteria, choice, satisfaction, loyalty
Complete end-to-end experience
and lock-in; complements, such as cloud services, content and accessories become more
will drive long-term success important
In medium term, major shift to soft Major shift from hard factors (features, functions, form factor, price) in app phones in the
factors in purchase criteria developed world to soft factors (usability and aesthetics)
Tablets will grow very rapidly, ushering in the post-PC, post-CE era; huge unfilled appetite
Tablets explode in short term
App phones + cloud + tablet Platforms (2-sided market) for content, commerce, convergence enable new businesses;
become dominant digital platform drive asymmetric competition; consumerization of IT
The connected home is the next The home is the next critical battleground for consumer choice as app phones and tablets
major area for value shift become the dominant control plane and major content consumption devices
4 3 October 2012

12. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
Ten reasons why it‟s all about app phones + tablets +
cloud services (=algorithm s)
Everyone (soon) has one…
…that is personalized for them…
…w ith them all of the time…
…wherever they go…
…and they are powerful computing devices…
…w ith broadband connectivity…
…that enables them to exploit amazing algorithms in the cloud…
…and they are intuitively easy to use…
…and really exible…
…and really easy and cheap to develop applications for.
• Everything else becomes an adjunct or accessory
5 3 October 2012

13. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
Everything becom es accessories or adjuncts to app
phones and tablets and cloud (=algorithm s)
Accessory Adjunct Algorithm
ac·ces·so·ry ad·junct al·go·rit hm
[ak-ses-uh-ree] [aj-uhngkt] [al-guh-rith-uhm]
noun, plural -ries, adjective
noun noun noun
1. a subordinate or 1. something added 1. a set of rules for
supplementary to another thing solving a
part, object, or but not essential problem in a
the like, used to it. nite number of
mainly for steps
convenience,
attractiveness,
safety, etc., as a
spotlight on an
automobile or a
lens cover on a
camera.
6 19 October 2011

14. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
“Just one word…”
Access • o • rithm
Alg • o • cessory
7 3 October 2012

15. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
Smart phones Dumb things
8 3 October 2012

16. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
Global device revenue
(in billions of USD)
$500 CAGR
(2010 – 2018)
App phones 21%
$400
$300
$200
Connected TV 19%
Tablets 28%
$100 PC -7%
Other connected CE -3%
Non-connected CE -19%
Feature & basic
$0 -16%
phones
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
9 3 October 2012

17. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
Device pro t by product and geography, $B
2018
$230 B
Other non-connected CE
Other xed CE
Connected TVs
App phones represent 64% of
PCs
pro t by 2018 of all devices,
up from 29% in 2011
Tablets (16%)
2010
$130 B
Other non-connected CE $
$2 $5 $6 $5 $18
1
Non-connected TVs $0 $1 $0 $1 $1 $4
Other connected xed CE $2 $3 $3 $3 $10
Connected TVs $2 Ld.
Lagging dev. JKT North App phones
PCs 1 $5 $2 $7 $7 $21 Europe +
developing America
(64%)
Tablets (6%) 1 1 1 $3 $4 $8
Lagging Ld.
J K/ T
/ Europe +
North 4X
App phones (29%) dev. dev. America $37
$4 $10
$8 $4 $10
Feature and
$14 $4 $1 $3 $3 $24
basic phones
Feature and basic phones
Portable CE 1 1 1 3 $6 Portable CE
10 3 October 2012

18. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
2018 landscape
Drivers of choice Device base and spending
Developing Developed
Soft factors and aesthetics 4.1B units 1.4B 5.5B app phone installed base
Look and feel of device
Demand $205B $211B $416B app phone sales
Brand loyalty
opportunity
End to end experience $57B $64B $121B tablet sales
(Performance no longer $326B Mobile services (excl. conn.)
differentiates)
$68B Accessories spending
Device pro t
Developing Developed
OS share $59B $91B $150B app phone pro t
New /others
$15B $23B $38B tablet pro t
Business $174 $46 $167 $416
Devices Netw ork Cloud
ecosystem $55 $45 $111
PC TV App phone
Tablets
App stores
Post PC, post CE era Apps Connected home
Installed 5,501
base iOS, Android and HTML5 Cloud apps
4,098
Technical Personal app phones Shared (household)
and tablets tablets
architecture TV Algorithms
1,629
1,208 1,004 597 Developing
944
664 1,403 354 566 1,032 Developed Commentary Control Content
544 590 438
Tablet App PC TV Other
plane plane plane
phone connected
CE
12 3 October 2012

19. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
Com puting and storage costs fall exponentially, m aking
„cloud services‟ incredibly cheap
Moore‟s Law - cost per Average hard drive storage cost
million calculations per second (Cost / GB, 1984 – 2009)
Cost per MIP Cost per GB
(log scale) (log scale)
$1,000,000 $294,031
$1,000,000
$177,000
$100,000 $100,000
$10,000 $10,000
$1,000 $1,000
$100 $100
$10 $10
$1 35% annual decline $1 45% annual decline
$0.10 $0.05 $0.10
$0.07
$0.01 $0.01
1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009
Source: Singularity.com; EndeavourPartners analysis Source: alts.net, cnet.net
16

20. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
“The new panel in the iPhone 5 is sim ply rem arkable in
quality and if it were a PC m onitor, I 'd give it a Gold
Award on the basis of its perform ance”
Color gamut Saturation
AnandTech
17 3 October 2012

21. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
An iPhone is now as fast as recent personal com puters
Geekbench
18 3 October 2012

22. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
“The re-im agination of nearly everything – powered by
new devices + connectivity + UI + beauty…”
• Telephony • Books
• Newspapers • Music
• Life stories • Sound
• Magazines • Video consumption
• Shopping and commerce • Video creation and production
• Healthcare • Home entertainment
• Wellness and tness • Television
• News and information ow • Navigation
• Note taking • Sports information
• Drawing • Calling a cab
• Photography • Yellow Pages
• Diaries • Coupons and local offers
• Scrapbooking • Cash registers
Mary Meeker at D10, 30 May 2012
20 3 October 2012

23. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
W inners and losers
✓ Apple
✓ Google Microsoft
✓ Amazon Intel
✓ Facebook Yahoo!
✓ ARM Sony
✓ Samsung Dell
HP
✓ Algorithms Motorola
✓ Smartphones Nokia
✓ Tablets
✓ Cloud PCs and servers
✓ LTE and WiFi
23 9June 2010

24. Competing visions for the future in a post-PC era
The key challenge is wizardry – m aking “ magic”
through system level usability
Focus on system level
usability
“ Any suf ciently advanced
technology is indistinguishable
Effectiveness Get jobs done
from magic”
Ef ciency Simple, easy to use Arthur C. Clarke’s Third Law
Enable a great
Satisfaction
experience
24 19 October 2011

25. The Future is
Enchanted Objects
• The things we live with are getting smarter
• Imagine a chair that plays your Pandora
music
• A kitchen cabinet that instantly connects
you to a loved one
• A trash can that reorders household
essentials via Amazon…

26. David Rose,
Roseology, Ditto
• The Future is Enchanted Objects
• Twitter: @DavidRose
• CEO of Ditto, Serial entrepreneur;
Vitality/ GlowCaps, Ambient Devices
• Enchanted objects, glanceable technology
• Research Scientist at the MIT Media Lab, teaching in
the Tangible Media Group with Hiroshi Ishii,

30. Ambient Orb HyperCello Furby Toumaz Sensor Little Printer IO Brush Nokia Broach
Botanicals Ambient Umbrella Nabaztag Hangsters Mobile Nest Thermostat GlowCap Withings Scale
Roomba Sifteo Cubes MotorolaActv Pebble Watch Sony SmartWatch IO Bulb Green Wheel
LEGO
Nike FuelBand Mindstorms Parking Meters Photo Frames Hancock Tower Nike+ Kodak Locket
Responsive
Anoto Pen APEX Glasses MIT CityCar Amazon Trashcan Guitar Hero Proverbial Wallets
Fork
evidence for connected objects

52. Ari Adler, IDEO
• Twitter: @IDEO
• Design and Community Lead at IDEO,
health and wellness group
• Inventor to19 patents
• Former MIT Media Lab research assistant

53. How might we use connected devices to enhance
the experience and efficiency of our homes?
Nest learning thermostat Twine smart home sensors
www.nest.com www.supermechanical.com/twine/
Yello smart meter and application Withings baby monitor and app
www.ideo.com/work/sparzahler-electricity-meter http://www.withings.com/en/babymonitor

54. How might we use connected devices to take
better control of our own health and wellness?
Nike+ FuelBand fitness tracker The Eatery app by Massive Health
www.nike.com/fuelband/ eatery.massivehealth.com
Zeo sleep tracking system Scanadu diagnostic device
www.myzeo.com/sleep/ tinyurl.com/scanadufastco

55. How might we use connected devices to effortlessly
collect and aggregate data for the greater good?
Asthmapolis asthma device and app Ginger.io behavioral analytics platform
www.asthmapolis.com www.ginger.io
Street Bump app Waze community mapping app
http://tinyurl.com/numstreetbump http://www.waze.com/

56. Adam Laughlin,
ImpulseSave
• Twitter: @a_laughlin
• Non-profits
• Nextstage Evolution
• Media Lab (Lifelong Kindergarten)
• ImpulseSave

57. Do I want to
think about it?
Yes No
Delegate to
Phone Object/System

59. Our Selves
Our Companies
Our Governments

60. Adam’s Final Words
• Mobile interfaces handle the things you want to
think about. Objects/Systems handle the rest.
• Sensors (especially phone) are systems’ portals into
you
• Increasingly engineered human experiences for
good & harm
• Sensors/Systems measure health & well-being
• Increasing multiple-bottom-line companies

61. Adam’s Final Words
Stuff you can play with today:
FUNF - funf.org (android sensor data)
BSMeter - goo.gl/NH6Q6 (paid)
PersonaScope - goo.gl/Ai1xx (paid)
Related:
Speaker - BostonCHI Nov 13.
Human Dynamics - Media Lab
Affective Computing - Media Lab
Ginger.io
Behav.io
Great books:
Thinking in Systems - goo.gl/SkzKH
Reading Virtual Minds V1 - goo.gl/EQJ2P
If you are interested in measuring well-being, let’s talk!

62. Jennifer Lum,
Adelphic Mobile
• Twitter: @JenniferLum
• Co-founder of Adelphic Mobile
• Mentor at 500 Startups and Tech Stars
• Serial entrepreneur with Quattro Mobile,
and iAd, now part of Apple
• Angle investor though Apricot Capital

63. Current state of
mobile
• Mobile phone subs are 5x landline subs and passed landline subscriptions 10
years ago and in the U.S. mobile broadband is ubiquitous at 64%
• Tablet installations are 30% and exploding in the U.S. while mobile internet use
has passed wired internet use in some emerging countries
• Compared to online, mobile advertising is
significantly more effective. When mediums
are combined ‘mobile only’ holds its own and
in some cases outperforms.

64. Market opportunity
Mobile media consumption is growing exponentially.
Ad spend is disproportionately low compared to other media.
$10.8B opportunity
~$20B+ opportunity
*US Mobile Ad Spending. Source: eMarketer *US Ad Spending vs Time Spent. Source: Flurry

65. Market challenges
Audience-based buying is an unsolved problem
• Buyers: Struggle to reach targeted audiences at scale
• Sellers: Struggle to understand and monetize audiences
Why hasn’t this been solved?
2) Difficult and Complex problem
1) Mobile is different
• Principles
• User identification
• Data collection
• Apps - new media type
• Implementation
• More data - location, device, behavior
Existing ad platforms and technology are ineffective in mobile

66. Mobile advertising -
the next two years
• Mobile Consumer
Innovation • Consume more services via mobile and connected
devices
• Mobile payments
1. Scalable • Advertisers
performance • Shift to real-time 1to1 marketing - cross screen
• Data sources
• Desired action/conversion
• Media
2. Creative
• Content personalization and programming - cross
screen
• Monetization strategies

67. Ambient intelligence
& advertising
• Is there a role for advertising in ambient
intelligence and if yes, what solutions are
most likely to work?
• More sensors/data, more personalized and
targeted communication
• Rich, continuous services delivered from cross-
environment
• How will consumer data be managed and
distributed?
• Which payment methods will be most effective?

68. Follow the discussion
• #MITForum:
– Post or ask questions
• @MichaelAMDavies
• @DavidRose
• @JenniferLum
• @a_laughlin
• @IDEO for Ari
• @ScratchMM