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The future of the OTC Derivative Market
The impact of Central Clearing
1
Agenda
Impact of mandatory central clearing on OTC derivatives
Cost of doing business
Collateral management efficiency
Regulations still to shape how we do business
2
Impact of mandatory central clearing on OTC derivatives
Source: Statistical release – OTC derivatives statistics at end-December 2014, April 2015, Bank for International Settlements
Gross market value drops significantly post 2008 crisis
Trading becoming increasingly capital-intensive
Clearing, trade compression and netting gaining importance
Recent trends in OTC derivatives market
Dec 12
585
Dec 11
596
Dec 10
553
Dec 09
532
Dec 08
525
Dec 07
508
Dec 06
361
Dec 05
257
Dec 14
598
Dec 13
676
CDSFXInterest rate
Notional Principle (USDbn)
Dec 10
19
Dec 09
18
Dec 08
29
Dec 07
11
Dec 14
19
Dec 13
17
Dec 12
22
Dec 11
24
Dec 06
7
Dec 05
7
Gross Credit ExposureCDSFXInterest rate
Gross Market Value & Gross Credit Exposure (USDbn)
3
What is the impact of the regulations on OTC market?
37% believe OTC liquidity has deteriorated over the past years
54% still consider derivatives crucial for efficient risk management
67% believe reforms won’t impact their demand for derivatives
Source: ISDA Insight (a survey of issues and trends for the derivatives end-user community); April 2015.
Impact of mandatory central clearing on OTC derivatives
What are firm’s biggest concerns regarding
ability to use derivatives to manage risk?
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Increased
costs of
hedging
Uncertainty
about
regulations
Concerns
about cross-
border
derivatives
regulations
Few er
dealers to
transact w ith
Reduced
availability of
hedging
products
Not able to
handle
clearing
Not
sure/other
4
62% expect more OTC derivatives to be centrally
cleared
17% believe more than 30% of their transactions will
remain uncleared
Source: the Global Survey conducted by Risk and IBM. Risk Magazine, May 2014
2015: 65 % of IRS and 29% of CDS outstanding
notional is centrally cleared
What are the firm’s expectations on cleared transactions?
Impact of mandatory central clearing on OTC derivatives
Currently being
centrally cleared
Expected to be centrally cleared in the next
two years
0-25% 25-50% 50-75% Total
0-25% Buy-side 10% 19% 9% 38%
Sell-side 10% 15% 12% 37%
25-50% Buy-side 2% 2% 4%
Sell-side 5% 5%
50%+ Buy-side 6% 6%
Sell-side 10% 10%
Total 19% 36% 44% 100%
Maintain cleared % Increased cleared %Key:
Desire to clear vs Requirement to clear!!
5
Source: BIS report - Regulatory reform of OTC derivatives: an assessment of incentives to clear centrally. October 2014.
Collateral costs
Capital costs
Initial margin requirement
Default fund requirement
Default fund exposures capital charge
Trade exposures capital charge
Initial margin requirement
CVA risk capital charge
Counterparty default risk capital charge
Central clearingBilateral trading
Cost of doing business
Costs of central clearing vs non-cleared – USD1m 5 year IRS
Breakdown of cost components for a stylised example
Bilateral Trading Estimated cost example (USD) Central Clearing
5,000 Potential future exposure 5,000
700 Total collateral required (initial margin + default fund) 572
80 Counterparty credit risk 8
310 Credit valuation adjustment n/a
n/a Default fund capital requirement 72
-11 Offset for initial margin received (for bilateral only) n/a
379 Total capital required 80
Costs
5 Cost of collateral (0.7% x total collateral required) 4
25 Cost of capital (6.7% x total capital required) 5
30 Total costs 9
6
1The leverage on a portfolio level is calculated differently from PFE at trade level. It recognises hedging at netting set level by net gross ratio.
Cost of doing business
What are LCR costs for Clearing Brokers?
LCR-implied costs
Maturity [yrs] 0 - 1 1 - 5 5 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 Total
Notional sum [m €] 1,400 1,438 971 352 119 43 16 4,339
Risk Add-on 0.0% 0.5% 1.5%
=
€30m
A gross
€ 13.5m
= 0.4 x
€30m
+ 0.6 x
0.09
x
€30m
PFE A gross NGR1 A gross
€ 0
+
€13.2m
+
€13.5m €26.7m
x
4% €1.07m
x
12% €128k
Current
exposure
IM + 20% addn
collateral
PFE LR exposure LR
Required
capital
ROC
Required
return
Leverage Ratio ~ 0.3bps on total notional
7
New capital charges drive costs higher for all
OTC derivatives but particularly for non-cleared
derivatives
Focus shifts towards the futures market thus
compromising on the hedge’s bespoke nature
End-users opting for non-perfect hedges
(increased demand for standardised products)
Operational complexity is leading to investment
into collateral and processing set up
Firms to restructure product offerings and
pull back from too costly asset classes
Careful selection of one or two CCPs to
maximise netting benefits and reduce
costs
Market is developing standardised
approaches to model margin
requirements
Cost of doing business
What will the OTC market look like post-reform?
8
Collateral value chain
Need to understand bilateral & cleared margin requirements
Solutions to facilitate margin calculations & asset segregation
Enhanced mechanisms to track collateral & its beneficiaries
Configuration to support the re-hypothecation requirements
Multiple custodians connectivity to manage cash & securities
Central
clearing
Mandatory clearing coverage to grow
Bilateral
margining
Complex and Illiquid market with high
margins
Collateral value chain
Optimal Counterparty Choice Efficient Margin Management Optimal Allocation of Collateral
CCP
Bilateral counterparty A
Bilateral counterparty B
Cross product margining
Netting & compression
Backloading
Holistic approach
Collateral substitution
Automated collateral
processes
Pre trade Continuous Post trade
Collateral management efficiency
99
Need an overarching approach to risk management
Alignment of disjointed collateral management
essential
Investment in infrastructure and technology is expected
Demand for eligible collateral to increase
Collateral upgrade and transformation gaining
importance
Capital, balance sheet and liquidity management
critical
Increased interconnectedness of previously distinct considerations
Collateral management efficiency
Inventory
Optimisation
Operational
Execution
Organisational
Set-up
Infrastructure
/ Technology
Resource
Management
Trading
Strategy
Balance
Sheet
RWA
LCR
LR
10
Documentation management platform
Sungard
Accenture
Markit
KYC utility
DTCC
(Static Data)
Genpact
TCS -Bancs
Clearstream
Broadridge
CAPCO - FIS
Euroclear
Bank Consortium
(Static data)
WIPRO
IBM
Growing importance of third party providers
New utility set-up emerging from the collateral paradigm shift
Collateral management efficiency
Repo Desk
Sec Lending
Derivatives
Treasury
Operations
Collateral management function
Sec
Lending
Repo F&O Treasury…
Markets/FO businesses Regional treasuries GT, …
Collateral
Optimisation platform
Eq Fl FX
Commodities
Cash
ListedandOTCderivatives
Governance
Product lines
Legal and
documentation
Collateral users
Traditional collateral setup Emerging trend
Markets/FO businesses Regional treasuries GT, …
MNA…ISDACSAGMRA
Source: Oliver Wyman, “Collateral Management Perspectives, September 2014
11
Current issues
Leverage ratio =
Tier 1 Capital
Total Exposure ≥ 3%
January 2018
implementation
Proposed changes on leverage ratio
Regulations still to shape how we do business
1. BCBS drafting a FAQ document to address the margin issue.
2. Market expects segregated client IM to be exempt from LR Replacement Cost but IM offsets to remain.
3. PFE add-on likely to be calculated with the method in place.
What are
next steps?
Exposure-reducing effect of IM not recognised1
PFE add-on (driven by total notional) jeopardises porting between CBs4
IM an on-balance sheet asset & part of Total Exposure – significant extra-burden2
Banks argue for this to change as client assets are segregated from bank’s own
and not available for re-use
3
12
MiFID II/MiFIR – all-encompassing impact on your organisation
Transparency
Investor Protection
Organisational
Requirements
Position Limits
OTC Derivatives &
Commodities
Market Structure
Non-discretionary
access
to venues
Trading of derivatives
on RMs
SME markets
introduced
Rules for Systematic
Internalisers
Specific capital/reporting
requirements
Electronic execution of
certain derivatives
ESMA to draft technical
standards
Pre/Post trade transparency Trade reporting to the authorities
Best Execution
Key Information
Documents (KID)
Client money/asset
rules
Client classification
Better risk controls for algorithmic
trading
Enhanced Governance
Position limits on commodity
derivatives
Position Reporting
Firms should review their client base and how MiFID II impacts their way for doing business with these clients
Significant changes to operational processes – including IT systems updates – required
MiFID II/MiFIR – key areas
Regulations still to shape how we do business
13
Source: the Global Survey conducted by Risk and IBM. Risk Magazine, May 2014.
What BCBS/Iosco requirements are ranked as being
most difficult?
How prepared are you to calculate and post initial
margin on a gross basis?
BCBS/IOSCO requirements are ranked as being most challenging*
Regulations still to shape how we do business
26%
18%
10%18%
14%
21%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50%
Initial margin
modelling
Group level
initial margin
threshold
Managing
restrictions on
rehypothecation
Buy-side Sell-side
Buy-side Sell-side
7.7%
61.5%
30.8%
12.2%
40.8%
46.9%
Well-prepared to calculate IM
On track and expect to meet the requirements
Concerned about requirements
14
Limited time between the determination of whether parties are in scope and the mandatory compliance.
Major business, operational, legal and technical changes need to be addressed.
What are the implications of BSBS/IOSCO margin requirements?
Regulations still to shape how we do business
Gross IM to impact firm’s liquidity, funding, systems and legal documentation
New infrastructure needed to support daily margining
Application scope
Various internal models can receive regulatory approval
Disputes when non-standard internal models used – risk implications
Calculation methodology
Demand for and costs of eligible collateral likely to increase
Firms to focus on collateral optimisation/transformation
Eligible Collateral
Increased funding requirements due to gross IM exchange
Changes to existing ISDAs/CSAs
Re-hypothecation
Implications for firmsKey areas
15
Markets not waiting for rules to be finalised and are adhering to the rules on a voluntary basis
The paradigm is shifting
Summary
Margining and collateral management at the forefront of clients’ attention
Need for a holistic, centralised approach to collateral optimisation and management – substantial investment
Chose carefully providers capable of facilitating your collateral needs throughout the collateral value chain
Liquid and eligible collateral crucial for doing business – collateral substitution and transformation to gain importance
OTC market increasingly expensive – shift towards futures expected
16
Thank you
Questions?
17
This presentation has been prepared by Commerzbank Corporates & Markets, which is the trading and investment banking division of Commerzbank
Aktiengesellschaft (“Commerzbank”). This document is for discussion purposes only. It is intended to provide information and outline certain basic points
of business understanding relevant to OTC Clearing requirements and services. It does not attempt to describe all the relevant terms for such services.
Recipients of this presentation should seek independent advice as to the legal and regulatory implications for them of the OTC clearing requirements
referred to herein in order to determine their applicability to them in the light of their particular circumstances. Commerzbank is not acting as an adviser,
and neither this document nor any communications from it should be treated as constituting professional advice. Commerzbank makes no representations
as to the accuracy or completeness of any statements made herein or made at any time orally or otherwise in connection herewith and all liability (in
negligence or otherwise) in respect of any such matters or statements is expressly excluded, except only in the case of fraud or willful default. The
information in this presentation is subject to change without notice and may be amended, superseded or replaced in its entirety by subsequent material
and developments. The material herein is based on data obtained from sources considered reliable and believed to be correct as at the date of issue, but
its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Any opinions expressed in this document are those of Commerzbank only as at the date of writing and
are subject to change without notice.
This communication is issued by Commerzbank. Commerzbank AG, London Branch is authorised by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht
(BaFin) and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation
by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Copyright © Commerzbank 2015. All rights
reserved.
Disclaimer
Commerzbank AG ‌ Corporates & Markets ‌ FICS Product Management ‌ 60261 Frankfurt am Main / Tel.: +49 (069)136-42020 / www.commerzbank.de

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The future of the OTC Derivative Market - Eugene stanfield

  • 1. The future of the OTC Derivative Market The impact of Central Clearing
  • 2. 1 Agenda Impact of mandatory central clearing on OTC derivatives Cost of doing business Collateral management efficiency Regulations still to shape how we do business
  • 3. 2 Impact of mandatory central clearing on OTC derivatives Source: Statistical release – OTC derivatives statistics at end-December 2014, April 2015, Bank for International Settlements Gross market value drops significantly post 2008 crisis Trading becoming increasingly capital-intensive Clearing, trade compression and netting gaining importance Recent trends in OTC derivatives market Dec 12 585 Dec 11 596 Dec 10 553 Dec 09 532 Dec 08 525 Dec 07 508 Dec 06 361 Dec 05 257 Dec 14 598 Dec 13 676 CDSFXInterest rate Notional Principle (USDbn) Dec 10 19 Dec 09 18 Dec 08 29 Dec 07 11 Dec 14 19 Dec 13 17 Dec 12 22 Dec 11 24 Dec 06 7 Dec 05 7 Gross Credit ExposureCDSFXInterest rate Gross Market Value & Gross Credit Exposure (USDbn)
  • 4. 3 What is the impact of the regulations on OTC market? 37% believe OTC liquidity has deteriorated over the past years 54% still consider derivatives crucial for efficient risk management 67% believe reforms won’t impact their demand for derivatives Source: ISDA Insight (a survey of issues and trends for the derivatives end-user community); April 2015. Impact of mandatory central clearing on OTC derivatives What are firm’s biggest concerns regarding ability to use derivatives to manage risk? 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% Increased costs of hedging Uncertainty about regulations Concerns about cross- border derivatives regulations Few er dealers to transact w ith Reduced availability of hedging products Not able to handle clearing Not sure/other
  • 5. 4 62% expect more OTC derivatives to be centrally cleared 17% believe more than 30% of their transactions will remain uncleared Source: the Global Survey conducted by Risk and IBM. Risk Magazine, May 2014 2015: 65 % of IRS and 29% of CDS outstanding notional is centrally cleared What are the firm’s expectations on cleared transactions? Impact of mandatory central clearing on OTC derivatives Currently being centrally cleared Expected to be centrally cleared in the next two years 0-25% 25-50% 50-75% Total 0-25% Buy-side 10% 19% 9% 38% Sell-side 10% 15% 12% 37% 25-50% Buy-side 2% 2% 4% Sell-side 5% 5% 50%+ Buy-side 6% 6% Sell-side 10% 10% Total 19% 36% 44% 100% Maintain cleared % Increased cleared %Key: Desire to clear vs Requirement to clear!!
  • 6. 5 Source: BIS report - Regulatory reform of OTC derivatives: an assessment of incentives to clear centrally. October 2014. Collateral costs Capital costs Initial margin requirement Default fund requirement Default fund exposures capital charge Trade exposures capital charge Initial margin requirement CVA risk capital charge Counterparty default risk capital charge Central clearingBilateral trading Cost of doing business Costs of central clearing vs non-cleared – USD1m 5 year IRS Breakdown of cost components for a stylised example Bilateral Trading Estimated cost example (USD) Central Clearing 5,000 Potential future exposure 5,000 700 Total collateral required (initial margin + default fund) 572 80 Counterparty credit risk 8 310 Credit valuation adjustment n/a n/a Default fund capital requirement 72 -11 Offset for initial margin received (for bilateral only) n/a 379 Total capital required 80 Costs 5 Cost of collateral (0.7% x total collateral required) 4 25 Cost of capital (6.7% x total capital required) 5 30 Total costs 9
  • 7. 6 1The leverage on a portfolio level is calculated differently from PFE at trade level. It recognises hedging at netting set level by net gross ratio. Cost of doing business What are LCR costs for Clearing Brokers? LCR-implied costs Maturity [yrs] 0 - 1 1 - 5 5 - 10 10 - 20 20 - 30 30 - 40 40 - 50 Total Notional sum [m €] 1,400 1,438 971 352 119 43 16 4,339 Risk Add-on 0.0% 0.5% 1.5% = €30m A gross € 13.5m = 0.4 x €30m + 0.6 x 0.09 x €30m PFE A gross NGR1 A gross € 0 + €13.2m + €13.5m €26.7m x 4% €1.07m x 12% €128k Current exposure IM + 20% addn collateral PFE LR exposure LR Required capital ROC Required return Leverage Ratio ~ 0.3bps on total notional
  • 8. 7 New capital charges drive costs higher for all OTC derivatives but particularly for non-cleared derivatives Focus shifts towards the futures market thus compromising on the hedge’s bespoke nature End-users opting for non-perfect hedges (increased demand for standardised products) Operational complexity is leading to investment into collateral and processing set up Firms to restructure product offerings and pull back from too costly asset classes Careful selection of one or two CCPs to maximise netting benefits and reduce costs Market is developing standardised approaches to model margin requirements Cost of doing business What will the OTC market look like post-reform?
  • 9. 8 Collateral value chain Need to understand bilateral & cleared margin requirements Solutions to facilitate margin calculations & asset segregation Enhanced mechanisms to track collateral & its beneficiaries Configuration to support the re-hypothecation requirements Multiple custodians connectivity to manage cash & securities Central clearing Mandatory clearing coverage to grow Bilateral margining Complex and Illiquid market with high margins Collateral value chain Optimal Counterparty Choice Efficient Margin Management Optimal Allocation of Collateral CCP Bilateral counterparty A Bilateral counterparty B Cross product margining Netting & compression Backloading Holistic approach Collateral substitution Automated collateral processes Pre trade Continuous Post trade Collateral management efficiency
  • 10. 99 Need an overarching approach to risk management Alignment of disjointed collateral management essential Investment in infrastructure and technology is expected Demand for eligible collateral to increase Collateral upgrade and transformation gaining importance Capital, balance sheet and liquidity management critical Increased interconnectedness of previously distinct considerations Collateral management efficiency Inventory Optimisation Operational Execution Organisational Set-up Infrastructure / Technology Resource Management Trading Strategy Balance Sheet RWA LCR LR
  • 11. 10 Documentation management platform Sungard Accenture Markit KYC utility DTCC (Static Data) Genpact TCS -Bancs Clearstream Broadridge CAPCO - FIS Euroclear Bank Consortium (Static data) WIPRO IBM Growing importance of third party providers New utility set-up emerging from the collateral paradigm shift Collateral management efficiency Repo Desk Sec Lending Derivatives Treasury Operations Collateral management function Sec Lending Repo F&O Treasury… Markets/FO businesses Regional treasuries GT, … Collateral Optimisation platform Eq Fl FX Commodities Cash ListedandOTCderivatives Governance Product lines Legal and documentation Collateral users Traditional collateral setup Emerging trend Markets/FO businesses Regional treasuries GT, … MNA…ISDACSAGMRA Source: Oliver Wyman, “Collateral Management Perspectives, September 2014
  • 12. 11 Current issues Leverage ratio = Tier 1 Capital Total Exposure ≥ 3% January 2018 implementation Proposed changes on leverage ratio Regulations still to shape how we do business 1. BCBS drafting a FAQ document to address the margin issue. 2. Market expects segregated client IM to be exempt from LR Replacement Cost but IM offsets to remain. 3. PFE add-on likely to be calculated with the method in place. What are next steps? Exposure-reducing effect of IM not recognised1 PFE add-on (driven by total notional) jeopardises porting between CBs4 IM an on-balance sheet asset & part of Total Exposure – significant extra-burden2 Banks argue for this to change as client assets are segregated from bank’s own and not available for re-use 3
  • 13. 12 MiFID II/MiFIR – all-encompassing impact on your organisation Transparency Investor Protection Organisational Requirements Position Limits OTC Derivatives & Commodities Market Structure Non-discretionary access to venues Trading of derivatives on RMs SME markets introduced Rules for Systematic Internalisers Specific capital/reporting requirements Electronic execution of certain derivatives ESMA to draft technical standards Pre/Post trade transparency Trade reporting to the authorities Best Execution Key Information Documents (KID) Client money/asset rules Client classification Better risk controls for algorithmic trading Enhanced Governance Position limits on commodity derivatives Position Reporting Firms should review their client base and how MiFID II impacts their way for doing business with these clients Significant changes to operational processes – including IT systems updates – required MiFID II/MiFIR – key areas Regulations still to shape how we do business
  • 14. 13 Source: the Global Survey conducted by Risk and IBM. Risk Magazine, May 2014. What BCBS/Iosco requirements are ranked as being most difficult? How prepared are you to calculate and post initial margin on a gross basis? BCBS/IOSCO requirements are ranked as being most challenging* Regulations still to shape how we do business 26% 18% 10%18% 14% 21% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Initial margin modelling Group level initial margin threshold Managing restrictions on rehypothecation Buy-side Sell-side Buy-side Sell-side 7.7% 61.5% 30.8% 12.2% 40.8% 46.9% Well-prepared to calculate IM On track and expect to meet the requirements Concerned about requirements
  • 15. 14 Limited time between the determination of whether parties are in scope and the mandatory compliance. Major business, operational, legal and technical changes need to be addressed. What are the implications of BSBS/IOSCO margin requirements? Regulations still to shape how we do business Gross IM to impact firm’s liquidity, funding, systems and legal documentation New infrastructure needed to support daily margining Application scope Various internal models can receive regulatory approval Disputes when non-standard internal models used – risk implications Calculation methodology Demand for and costs of eligible collateral likely to increase Firms to focus on collateral optimisation/transformation Eligible Collateral Increased funding requirements due to gross IM exchange Changes to existing ISDAs/CSAs Re-hypothecation Implications for firmsKey areas
  • 16. 15 Markets not waiting for rules to be finalised and are adhering to the rules on a voluntary basis The paradigm is shifting Summary Margining and collateral management at the forefront of clients’ attention Need for a holistic, centralised approach to collateral optimisation and management – substantial investment Chose carefully providers capable of facilitating your collateral needs throughout the collateral value chain Liquid and eligible collateral crucial for doing business – collateral substitution and transformation to gain importance OTC market increasingly expensive – shift towards futures expected
  • 18. 17 This presentation has been prepared by Commerzbank Corporates & Markets, which is the trading and investment banking division of Commerzbank Aktiengesellschaft (“Commerzbank”). This document is for discussion purposes only. It is intended to provide information and outline certain basic points of business understanding relevant to OTC Clearing requirements and services. It does not attempt to describe all the relevant terms for such services. Recipients of this presentation should seek independent advice as to the legal and regulatory implications for them of the OTC clearing requirements referred to herein in order to determine their applicability to them in the light of their particular circumstances. Commerzbank is not acting as an adviser, and neither this document nor any communications from it should be treated as constituting professional advice. Commerzbank makes no representations as to the accuracy or completeness of any statements made herein or made at any time orally or otherwise in connection herewith and all liability (in negligence or otherwise) in respect of any such matters or statements is expressly excluded, except only in the case of fraud or willful default. The information in this presentation is subject to change without notice and may be amended, superseded or replaced in its entirety by subsequent material and developments. The material herein is based on data obtained from sources considered reliable and believed to be correct as at the date of issue, but its accuracy or completeness is not guaranteed. Any opinions expressed in this document are those of Commerzbank only as at the date of writing and are subject to change without notice. This communication is issued by Commerzbank. Commerzbank AG, London Branch is authorised by Bundesanstalt für Finanzdienstleistungsaufsicht (BaFin) and subject to limited regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority. Details about the extent of our regulation by the Financial Conduct Authority and Prudential Regulation Authority are available from us on request. Copyright © Commerzbank 2015. All rights reserved. Disclaimer Commerzbank AG ‌ Corporates & Markets ‌ FICS Product Management ‌ 60261 Frankfurt am Main / Tel.: +49 (069)136-42020 / www.commerzbank.de