2. SUMMARY
COVID-19 is a global societal crisis
COVID-19 outbreak is first and foremost a societal
crisis, threatening lives and the wellbeing of our
global community. Society now, more than ever,
needs to collaborate to protect people's lives and
health, manage mid-term implications and search
for lasting solutions.
Leaders need to drive an integrated response to
navigate the crisis
It is the duty of health, political, societal, and business
leaders to navigate through this crisis. A complex
interplay of epidemic progression, medical response,
government action, sector impact, and company action
is playing out jointly. This document intends to help
leaders find answers and shape opinions to navigate the
crisis in their own environments. It encourages thinking
across the multiple time horizons over which we see the
crisis manifesting itself.
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3. The COVID-19 disease progression continues to be a global challenge to societies:
• Testing is increasing, giving more transparency and control
• Some countries are extending lockdowns and social separation
• A few countries have started to progressively lift restrictions
Impact on sectors and business:
• Depends on intensity and shape of the health and economic recovery, especially in an extended fight phase
• Economic indicators and forecasts signal a severe downturn
• global equity markets continue to be challenged and unemployment rates are rising
Implications:
• It remains critical to understand the specific context and environment, for future pathways of companies
• Many investments to bring forward therapies/vaccines in the next ~12-18 months
• Young consumers are largely worried about financial implications, but share positive sentiment about recovery across
many geographies
SUMMARY
What is needed:
• Governments need to ensure that reopening activities are guided by national health, and economic and social
priorities, allowing for local adaptation
• Reopening requires careful preparation, for governments as well as business
• Business leaders and governments can use this crisis as an opportunity to strengthen their cooperation
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4. DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE FOR DIFFERENT PHASES
Resist
• Limit the number of confirmed cases, especially critical care
• Economic recession with large employment impact, cause of social distancing
Defy
• Collectively fight the virus
• Restart the economy
• Support society in balancing its lives and needs
Future
• Disease controlled through vaccine/cure/ herd immunity
• Reactivated economy with strong business rebound and job growth,
• Social restrictions limited or completely suspended
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5. DIFFERENT PERSPECTIVE FOR DIFFERENT PHASES
Factors that result in
specific economic
and social outcomes
in each phase
Disease progression, health care system
capacity, and response
Government policies and economic
stimulus
Economic scenarios
Business engagement and response
Public engagement and response
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6. Y YES
X RELAXTION
MEASURES
-- EXTENTION
Government measures continue to be enforced
School closure Restricted
assembly
Non-essential
business closure
Int.al travel
restrictions
Domestic travel
restrictions
Non-essential local mvmt.
restrictions
China Y Y X Y X Y
Spain Y Y X Y Y Y
France -- -- -- -- -- --
Switzerland Y Y Y Y Y Y
Italy Y Y Y Y Y Y
Iran Y X Y Y Y
Denmark X Y Y Y
Germany Y Y Y Y Y Y
US Y Y Y Y --
South Korea Y Y
Japan Y Y Y Y
UK -- -- -- -- -- --
Turkey -- -- -- -- --
India -- -- -- -- -- --
As of 22 April 2020
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7. * AS JANUARY OF 2020, CREDIT: NATIONAL CENTER FOR BIOTECHNOLOGY INFORMATION
** As of 22 April 2020. OUT OF THE 6 SEEN BEFORE; THE “X” AND THE ”--” ARE COUNTED AS 0,5 ; THE “Y” ID COUNTED AS 1 ; THE “ ” IS COUNTED AS 0
*** As May 4th 2020, Credit: OECD
Government measures continue to be enforced
ICU/100.000
inhabitants *
Nr. of
restriction**
GDP forecast
2020 annual
growth rate (%)
***
GDP 2020 fo.st –
GDP 2029 (%)
***
China 3,6 5 5,73 (0,44)
Spain 9,7 5,5 1,64 (0,35)
France 11,6 3 1,20 (0,11)
Switzerland 11 6 1,35 0,52
Italy 12,5 6 0,46 0,23
Iran 0,55 4,5 (6,00) 1,60
Denmark 6,7 3,5 1,35 (0,47)
Germany 33,9 6 0,44 (0,15)
US 29,4 4,5 2,00 (0,32)
South Korea 10,6 2 (1,20) (3,2)
Japan 7,3 4 0,55 (0,47)
UK 6,6 3 1,00 0,24
Turkey 47,1 3 3,04 2,73
India 2,3 3 6,20 0,44
Important downside risks to include:
• Trade and investment tensions
remain high and could spread
further
• Uncertainty remains about the
future UK-EU trading relationship
• High corporate debt and
deteriorating credit quality
OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2020
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8. Policy changes to improve growth prospects
• Additional fiscal support for health services
• Cushion adverse effects of the outbreak on vulnerable social groups
• The provision of adequate liquidity in the financial system:
• Measures that reduce or delay tax or debt payments, or lower the costs of inputs such as energy
Temporary reductions in the level of reserves banks are required to hold at the central bank
• Swap lines between major central banks
• Expanding spending on health services, targeted and temporary fiscal measures
• Funds established to reintegrate workers who have lost their jobs due to globalization
• Monetary policy needs to remain supportive
• Fiscal support needs to be enhanced via stronger public investment
OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report March 2020
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10. ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS IMPACT
This data set includes top 5000 companies by global market cap in 2019, excluding some subsidiaries, holding companies and companies who have delisted since
Credits: Corporate Performance Analytics, S&CF Insights, S&P Oradini Luca -BSSC
11. COVID-19 AND REMOTE WORKING
Common Challenges of Remote Work:
•Lack of face-to-face supervision
•Lack of access to information
•Social isolation
•Distractions at home How Managers Can Support Remote Employees:
•Establish structured daily check-ins
•Provide several different communication
technology options
•And then establish “rules of engagement”
•Provide opportunities for remote social
interaction
•Offer encouragement and emotional support
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12. • The low-cost airline said it was cutting 15% of its
20.000 (3.000) strong workforce as it did not
expect passenger numbers or pricing to return to
pre-coronavirus levels until summer 2022 at the
earliest.
• The company, which expects to report a net loss of
more than €100m (£87m) for the first quarter and
through the summer, said restructuring and job
losses would start in July.
• “If you want a cash refund you will get a cash
refund. We will give you your money back. Nobody
has to fight for a refund from Ryanair”, said
O’Learly.
ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS IMPACT – RYANAIR CASE
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13. ECONOMICS AND BUSINESS IMPACT – RYANAIR CASE
• Ryanair said that it would operate less than 1% of its
normal schedule in June
• The airline said it expects to carry fewer than 150,000
passengers from May through July, as travel restrictions
and anxieties over the pandemic persist in Europe. It had
originally projected 42.4 million passengers during the
quarter.
• Ryanair also accused European governments of bailing
out competitors unfairly, saying that airlines such as
Lufthansa, Air France-KLM, and Alitalia will be able to
undercut the budget carrier on price.
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