A primer on climate change

1. Climate change:
science and solutions
John Perona
Professor, Portland State University &
Oregon Health & Science University

2. Earth’s climate system
Sunlight IN
Earthlight OUT
Fossil fuel
burning 
Earth out of
energy balance
• Greenhouse gas
• Clouds
SUN
DEEP UNDERGROUND

3. Climate change impacts in Oregon
• Water
resources
• Forests
• Agriculture
(wine/beer)
• Coast/Ocean
www.pdxclimateed.com/oregon-climate-change-impacts/
4th National Climate Assessment, Northwest region (2018)

4. NASA satellites and climate change
Climate science – clouds: Your help needed!
Climate change: where we are today
Solutions:
electricity
transportation
forests
Getting involved

5. NASA GRACE – Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment

6. Amazing GRACE!
• Satellites are 220 km apart
• Large mountain’s gravity causes both satellites to accelerate
• But the closer satellite accelerates more
Now the satellites’ relative velocity and positions are changed
Can measure their separation within 1 micron accuracy!
How GRACE works

7. Amazing GRACE!
• We have this amazing new tool now
• We used the (known) mountain to calibrate it
• How do we apply GRACE to learn about climate change?
Using GRACE for new discovery

8. Science (AAAS), September 2014
GRACE detects changes
in groundwater aquifers

9. Groundwater
storage change
from 2002
to 2016 in 34
regions
-unsustainable
pumping
-climate change
-natural
variation
Nature 557, 651-659 (2018)
Oregon: 60% now in moderate/severe drought

11. More GRACE data – ice melt and ice gains
in Greenland and Antarctica

12. NASA satellites – see only the
tops of clouds!
Citizen scientists wanted:
photograph clouds from Earth
https://scistarter.org/globe-observer-clouds
Clouds reflect incoming sunlight  Cool
Clouds trap outgoing Earthlight  Warm
Which effect dominates?

14. NASA satellites and climate change
Climate science – clouds: Your help needed!
Climate change: where we are today
Solutions:
electricity
transportation
forests
Getting involved

15. https://www.ipcc.ch/sr15/

16. Paris
accord 3.0ºC
Present CO2(e)
49 Gt/yr
No policy 4.5ºC
Current
policy 3.5ºC
2ºC world
1.5ºC world

17. United States greenhouse gas emissions

18. 51%
30%
21%
20%
17%
32%
11%
18%
US Electricity Generation, 2001-2017

19. Electricity production and electric cars:
the big success story so far
US EV projectionsHuge cost reductions for wind, solar
Both applications enabled by storage battery advances
Electric rail and electric buses are already here
How far can we push electrification?

20. Nukes coming soon – to a neighborhood near you?
http://www.nuscalepower.com
SMR: small modular
(nuclear) reactor
-70% smaller
-much less costly
-improved safety
NuScale Power, LLC
Headquarters: Tigard, OR
Production: Corvallis, OR
Test Facility: OSU
• Highly capitalized
• Huge funding from DOE
• Expected first to market (2025)
• NRC approvals in progress
• In OR: voter approval and
waste mgmt. plan required

21. Transportation: A role for biofuels
I. End uses that are
hard to electrify:
• On-site combustion
(need pipeline gas)
• Aviation/trucks/
marine transport
(mainly diesel!)
II. Replace oil-based
commodities

22. Liquid biofuels – reduce transportation emissions
Present US petroleum use: ~300 billion gal. per year
•Gasoline - 240 billion gpy (light cars  electrify!)
•Diesel fuel – 60 billion gpy (trucks, jets  electrify?)
Corn ethanol –
gasoline blend
Cellulosic ethanol –
gasoline blend
BECCS?
Soybean biodiesel –
petroleum drop-in
substitute
Also: Smart cities to reduce vehicle miles traveled, VMT

23. Deforestation
Commodity drivers:
• Beef
• Palm oil
• Soybeans
• Wood products
(dark)
forest
Globally deforestation  about 10% of global warming
Brazil and Indonesia  over half the problem
From 2001  2015, deforestation emissions down 25%
Driven by: population increase
diet choices (including our choices)
need for income
poor government and corruption

24. Increase carbon stores in Oregon’s forests
Wetter, denser Western forests store more
• Improved forest management
• Protect old growth forest
• Forest fire and restoration practice
https://www.keeporegoncool.org/forest-carbon/

26. NASA satellites and climate change
Climate science – clouds: Your help needed!
Climate change: where we are today
Solutions
electricity
transportation
forests
Getting involved

27. Public opinion is
strongly turning in
favor of climate action

28. 28
Citizens’ Climate Lobby: Carbon Fee & Dividend
Place a fee on fossil fuels at the source
(mine, well or port).
Return all of the revenue to
households equally.
A border adjustment on goods
imported from or exported to
countries without an
equivalent price on carbon.
2
1
3
Contact: Francine Chinitz, fchinitz@hotmail.com
https://citizensclimatelobby.org SUPPORT H.R. 763 BILL IN US HOUSE!

29. Jordan Cove liquified natural gas export terminal
Coos Bay
Coos Bay
+ LNG?
350pdx.nationbuilder.com

30. Canadian Oil Sands  Zenith energy terminal
BEFORE
REFINEMENT
AFTER
REFINEMENT
ALBERTA,
CANADA
PORTLAND, OREGON?
350pdx.nationbuilder.com

31. https://actionnetwork.org/events/youth-v-gov-rally
Support Our Children’s Trust
Youth v. Gov. lawsuit demands a US climate action plan
June 4 rally, 10:30 AM
Director Park
815 SW Park, Portland
Oral arguments
will be broadcast

32. Thank you!!
Dr. John Perona
Professor, PSU and OHSU
perona@pdx.edu
www.pdxclimateed.com
This presentation available at: www.pdxClimateEd.com