Housing market statistics affecting Winnipeg and Manitoba for consumers and professionals.

1. Housing market intelligence you can count on

2. Manitoba Economy
Manitoba Housing Markets
Winnipeg Demographics and Housing Markets
Resale Market
New Home Market
Single-detached
Multi-family
Rental Market
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

3. -0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
4.0
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
Manitoba Real GDP GrowthEconomy will continue to expand at a steady pace
per cent change in real Gross Domestic Product
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

4. -2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Jan-Aug 2014
Manitoba Retail Sales GrowthSpending growth at over three per cent, contributing to economy
Source: Statistics Canada
per cent change in retail sales
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

5. -$10
-$5
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Ja-Au 2013
Ja-Au 2014
Exports
Imports
Net Exports
Manitoba International TradeExports increasing, up 10 per cent to date in 2014
Source: Statistics Canada
billions
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

6. Manitoba Total Net MigrationMigration to remain elevated above 8,000
-2,000
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)
net migration

7. -0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
per cent change, average employment
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)
Manitoba Employment GrowthEmployment gains to return in 2015
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

8. Manitoba Employment by AgeGains among 25 to 44 year olds, positive for first-time buyers
-4.0
-3.0
-2.0
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
15-24
25-44
45-64
Total Employment
2013
Jan-Sep 2014
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
year-over-year % change
Source: Statistics Canada

9. Manitoba Unemployment RateProjected to remain near 5.5 per cent
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Manitoba
Canada
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada, seasonally adjusted
unemployment rate

10. -1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CPI -Manitoba
AWE -12 mo mov. avg.
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada
year-over-year % change
Manitoba –AWE and InflationNominal wage growth above inflation

11. Five-year Mortgage RateWill remain low by historical standards
0
5
10
15
20
25
1951
1959
1967
1975
1983
1991
1999
2007
2015f
5-year Mortgage Rate
Forecast Range
Source: Bank of Canada, CMHC Forecast (f)
4
5
6
7
2014f
2015f
2016f
per cent
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

12. Housing market intelligence you can count on

13. 5,000
7,000
9,000
11,000
13,000
15,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
Other Centres
Winnipeg
Manitoba MLS®Total SalesProvincial sales to rise moderately
Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f)
units
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

14. Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f)
average price (thousands)
Manitoba Residential MLS®PricePrice growth expected to moderate
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
5.3%
2.2%
2.3%
5.2%
2.3%

15. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
4,500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
Rest of Province
Winnipeg
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
units
Manitoba Single-detached Housing StartsStarts to increase in 2015, remain stable

16. Q1-Q3 2013
Q1-Q3 2014
% Change
Winnipeg
1,693
1,434
-15%
Brandon
101
84
-17%
Steinbach
61
49
-20%
Portage la Prairie
5
7
40%
Thompson
2
2
-
Winkler
81
47
-42%
Hanover
102
88
-13%
St. Andrews R.M.
31
24
-22%
All Urban Centres
2,076
1,735
-16%
Rural Areas
767
688
-10%
Total
2,843
2,423
-15%
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Manitoba Single-detached Housing StartsGreater decrease in urban areas

17. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
Rest of Province
Winnipeg
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Manitoba Multi-family Housing StartsTo moderate but remain elevated
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
units

18. Q1-Q3 2013
Q1-Q3 2014
% Change
Winnipeg
1,930
1,961
2%
Brandon
172
134
-22%
Steinbach
170
97
-43%
Portage la Prairie
-
20
**
Thompson
-
-
**
Winkler
91
112
23
Hanover
28
12
-57%
St. Andrews R.M.
-
-
**
All Urban Centres
2,391
2,336
-2%
Rural Areas
402
194
-52%
Total
2,793
2,530
-9%
Source: CMHC
Manitoba Multi-family Housing StartsGreater decrease in rural areas
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

19. Manitoba Forecast Summary
Source: CMHC, Statistics Canada, CREA, * Total Residential, CMHC Forecast (f)
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
Economy
GDP Growth
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.3
Employment Growth
0.6
-0.1
1.1
1.0
Net Migration
9,217
9,200
9,100
9,300
New Home Market
Single-detached Starts
(Range)
3,820
3,300
(3,400-3,200)
3,500
(3,800-3,200)
3,500
(3,900-3,100)
Multi-family Starts
(Range)
3,645
3,400
(3,400-3,400)
3,000
(3,200-2,800)
2,800
(3,100-2,500)
Resale Market*
Total Sales
(Range)
13,735
13,900
(14,100-13,600)
14,100
(14,800-13,400)
14,200
(15,100-13,300)
Average Price
(Range)
$260,849
$266,500
($266,900-$264,400)
$272,600
($277,380-$268,000)
$278,800
($283,600-$272,100)

20. Housing market intelligence you can count on

21. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada
-0.5%
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
year-over-year per cent change
WinnipegCMA Population GrowthRate of growth at levels not seen in over 25 years

22. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
4.0%
4.5%
Halifax
Montréal
St. John's
Ottawa-Gatineau
Vancouver
Toronto
All metropolitan areas
Winnipeg
Regina
Edmonton
Saskatoon
Calgary
2012-2013 per cent change
SelectCMAs Population Growth
Winnipeg on par with national metropolitan average

23. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Renter
1stTime
Buyer
Move-up
Buyer
Seniors’
Housing
Live with
parents
Adult Lifestyle
Source: Statistics Canada
persons
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
Population
Growth Rate (2009-2013)
Winnipeg Age Profile 2013
Higher population growth supports multi-family markets

24. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Renter
1stTime
Buyer
Move-up
Buyer
Seniors’
Housing
Live with
parents
Adult Lifestyle
Source: Statistics Canada
persons
growth rate
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
70,000
0-4
5-9
10-14
15-19
20-24
25-29
30-34
35-39
40-44
45-49
50-54
55-59
60-64
65-69
70-74
75-79
80-84
85-89
90+
Population
Growth Rate (2009-2013)
Winnipeg Age Profile 2013
Higher population growth supports multi-family markets

25. Housing market intelligence you can count on

26. 7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
13,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f)
Winnipeg CMA MLS®Total SalesSales to rise moderately through 2016
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
residential unit sales

27. Winnipeg MLS®SalesCondominium sales climbing, 14 per cent of total in 2013
500
750
1,000
1,250
1,500
1,750
2,000
2,250
2,500
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
11,000
12,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Residential
Condominium
Source: Winnipeg Realtors®website
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
residential unit sales
condominium unit sales

28. Winnipeg CMA MLS®SalesPace of sales rebounded in recent months
800
850
900
950
1,000
1,050
1,100
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units (trended)
Source: CREA, Trend adjustment by CMHC

29. Winnipeg CMA MLS®New ListingsMore homes being put up for sale, increased 14 per cent yr/yr
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units (trended)
Source: CREA, Trend adjustment by CMHC

30. 30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Winnipeg
Canada
MLS® Sales-to-New Listings RatioDecreasing, within balanced conditions
seasonally adjusted
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: CREA, seasonally adjusted

31. Winnipeg CMA MLS®Average PricePrice gains to moderate
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$250
$275
$300
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
thousands
Source: CREA, CMHC Forecast (f)
5.2%
2.8%
2.5%
5.7%
2.5%

32. Housing market intelligence you can count on

33. 0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2002
2004
2006
2008
2010
2012
Multi-family
Single-detached
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Winnipeg CMATotal HousingStarts
Total starts reached a 26-year high in 2013
units

34. Total Housing Starts Per CapitaWinnipeg starts per capita climbing
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Winnipeg
All Metropolitan Areas
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
Source: Statistics Canada, CMHC
starts per 1,000 population

35. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
Winnipeg CMA Single-detached StartsTo come down from 2013 but remain elevated
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units

36. Winnipeg CMA Single-detachedAbsorptions beginning to outpace completions
100
125
150
175
200
225
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Absorptions
Completions
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units (12 month moving average)
Source: CMHC

37. Winnipeg CMA Single-detached InventoryDecreasing and in line with five-year average
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Complete and Unabsorbed
Spec Homes
Show Homes
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units
Source: CMHC

38. $150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
average absorbed price (000s)
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
Winnipeg CMA New Single-detached PriceAbsorbed average price to increase steadily
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
1.9%
4.5%
2.8%
3.7%
2.7%

39. Winnipeg CMA Absorptions by PriceCategory of greatest market share shifted upwards
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
<$300K
$300K-$400K
$400K-$500K
$500K-$600K
>$600K
Jan-Sep 2013
Jan-Sep 2014
absorptions by price range (single-detached units)
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

40. Winnipeg CMA New House Price IndexRate of growth has slowed
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Total
House only
Land only
Source: Statistics Canada
2007 = 1.0
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

41. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
WinnipegCMA Multi-family Starts
Willremain elevated, but moderate over next two years
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units

42. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
Semi
Row
Apt.
Jan-Sep 2013
Jan-Sep 2014
Source: CMHC
Winnipeg CMAMultiStarts by TypeRow housing seeing increased activity
units

43. 0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Ja-Se 2013
Ja-Se 2014
Ownership
Rental
Source: CMHC
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
WinnipegCMA MultiStarts by Tenure
Units for ownership seeing greater market share
units

44. 0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Absorptions
Completions
units (12 month moving average)
Source: CMHC
WinnipegCMA Multi-familyAbsorptions
Completions outpacing absorptions since 2012
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

45. Source: CMHC
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Rental
Ownership
Five-year Average
Winnipeg CMAMulti-family Inventory
Complete and unabsorbed units rising
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units

46. Source: CMHC
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
Rental
Ownership
Five-year Average
Winnipeg CMAMultisUnder Construction
Units under construction at a 35-yr high
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
units

47. Winnipeg CMA Apartment Vacancy RateTo rise above three per cent by 2016
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
1.5%
2.0%
2.5%
3.0%
3.5%
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
October surveys
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)

48. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
$1,000
$1,100
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
two-bedroom average rent (October)
Source: CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
WinnipegAverage Apartment RentSteady increases to continue

49. CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
average two-bedroom apartment rent
average MLS® home carrying cost
* assumption: 5% down payment, average 5-year fixed mortgage rates, amortized 25 years
Source: CREA, Bank of Canada, CMHC calculations
monthly carrying cost*, rent
WinnipegCost ofOwning vs. RentingCosts 60 per cent more to buy a home than rent

50. 2013
2014f
2015f
2016f
New Home Market
Single-detached Starts
2,218
1,975
2,000
2,025
Multi-family Starts
2,487
2,550
2,500
2,400
New House Pr. Ind. (% chg.)
4.9
2.3
2.2
2.2
Resale Market
Total Sales
12,088
12,200
12,300
12,400
Average Price
$ 268,382
$ 276,000
$ 283,000
$ 290,000
Rental Market
Vacancy Rate (%)
2.5
2.8
3.0
3.2
2-bedroom Rent
$ 969
$ 1010
$ 1,040
$ 1,070
Source: CREA, Statistics Canada, CMHC, CMHC Forecast (f)
Winnipeg CMA Forecast Summary
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

51. Contact Information
Dianne Himbeault
Senior Market Analyst, CMHC
dhimbeau@cmhc.ca
(204) 318-1754
CANADA MORTGAGE AND HOUSING CORPORATION

52. Housing market intelligence you can count on