2. Immigrant Contributions to MN’s Economy
•
•
•
•
Workers
Entrepreneurs
Consumers
Connect us to world economy
• Contributions change over time!
3. Workers
• Immigrant workers = majority of labor force
growth
• 7% of population – 9% of workforce
– 375,000 to 390,000 people
– 230,000 workers
– 55,000 – 85,000 “unauthorized”
• MN growth depends on imported labor
5. Migration Will Be Increasingly Important Re Growing the Labor Force
Net Labor Force Growth
500,000
Total
400,000
Natural
Part Rate
Migration
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
-100,000
2000-10
State Demographer projection revised 2007
2010-20
2020-30
6. MN Labor Force % Born in Another Country
14%
12.6%
12%
10%
8.5%
25-34
55-64
8%
6%
4%
4.8%
3.3%
3.1%
3.6%
2%
0%
1990
2000
PUMS microdata from 1990 & 2000 Census & 2006 ACS
2006
8. Key Workers – Still in Short Supply
(2012-13 Grow MN! Results, N = 697)
Job Type
Construction, Trades Workers
Production and Assembly
Architects,Engineers, Cartographers
Sales Agents, Real Estate Agents
Executives, Managers
IT and Web, Actuaries, Statisticians
Office Support and Assistants
Installation, Maintenance, Automotive
Transportation and Moving Personnel
HR, Accountants, Finance, Insurance
Food Preparers, Chefs, Servers
# of Companies
Seeking Workers
89
101
64
77
33
41
61
36
27
24
28
% Reporting
Unfilled Jobs
14%
14%
9%
9%
7%
7%
6%
5%
5%
4%
4%
9. What Industries Fueled by Immigrant Workers?
(Top 5)
Source: Migration Policy Institute 2009
Industry
% Foreign-Born
% Native- Born
Manufacturing
20%
13%
Retail Trade
8%
12%
Pro’s, Scientific, Management, Admin
14%
9%
Education, Health, Social Services
23%
24%
Arts, Entertainment, Recreation
Accommodation and Food Services
11%
8%
TOTAL, TOP 5
76%
66%
10. Minnesota’s Immigrant Population Is Highly Educated
For every “low-skill” immigrant without a high school diploma, MN has
1.25 immigrants with “high skills” – a college degree or more.
Skill Level
% of Total MN Immigrant
Population, 2009
Low Skill (< high school)
21%
High Skill (at least a BA)
26%
Source: The Geography of Immigrant Skills, Brookings 2011
14. Immigrants Start Businesses
• > 40% of Fortune 500 companies started by
immigrants or their children.
• Immigrants started 25% of high tech cos. from
1995-2005, creating 450,000 jobs.
• Immigrants lead some of MN’s largest companies:
3M, Lifetime Fitness, DeCare, Medtronic, Best Buy
& Mosaic.
Source: Partnership for a New American Economy, Minneapolis/St. Paul Business Journal
15. Consumer Power
• Minnesota’s foreign-born: > $5 billion buying power
• Housing market in Minnesota (2000-2010):
– 20% of growth in demand due to immigrants
– 44% of rental growth due to immigrants
– Depressed neighborhoods stabilized; new residents attracted
(including non-immigrants)
16. Economic Stimulus
• +1,000 immigrant professionals:
– +7,100 new jobs by 2020
– +$2.5 billion in personal income by 2045
• Reform to seasonal & part-time visas:
– 8,800 new jobs
– $348 million in personal income by 2020
• Localized effects:
– New immigrants may hurt wages of low-skilled native
workers, but net economic benefit to U.S. is $80,000 per
immigrant.
17. Connecting Us to the World
• Foreign investment & expertise key to growth
• MN’s steel & mining industries:
–
–
–
–
–
MN Steel (Nashwauk): India
ArcelorMittal Steel (Virginia): India
Gerdau Ameristeel (St. Paul): Brazil
Duluth Metals (Biwabik): Chile
Polymet (Hoyt Lakes): Canada
• Immigrants add diversity… that says, “World
Economy Welcome Here!”
18. Unauthorized Immigrants…No Definitive Data
• 55,000 – 85,000 unauthorized
• Cost: about $176-$188 m per year:
– K12 education: $146-158 m
– Incarceration: $13 m
- Public health care: $17 m
- Varies by community
• On the other hand:
– Annual state & local taxes paid, about $345 m
– Limited access to public assistance
• Immediate cost < long term benefit
19. Hmong MN Experience
Compiled by Dr. Bruce Corrie, Concordia University, St. Paul
Median Age
College Graduates
Workforce Participation Rate
Median Household Income
Household Receiving Public Assist
Homeownership Rate
Median Home Value
1980
37
5%
27%
$17,481
67%
12%
$85,927
2010
19.7
12.6%
59%
$49,400
14%
49%
$161,100
20. MN’s Economic Reality…2030
• Population ages dramatically
• Labor force growth declines
• New enterprises critical to growth
• Needs foreign $$$s & expertise
• New Americans key to Minnesota’s growth
No more recent data on State website, past 2005/6 ACS.
For all civilian employed workers aged 16 and older, foreign-born workers represented: 2.4% in 1990; 5.2% in 2001; and 7.8% in 2009. (Migration Policy Institute, ACS data 2009)
2010 Estimate: 378,000 foreign-born in Minnesota, approximately 7% of the state population.
I’m cutting finance and insurance, and real estate rental and leasing. It was category 6 on the slide.
The 2009 numbers are 5.8% foreign-born, 7.4% native-born.
All of these companies were founded by an immigrant or their children. Source: Partnership for a New American Economy.
Can’t pick which are granted: This means that if you submit 10 applications and get 5 approvals, you have to take those five individuals and give up the other five. There’s no switching visa applications: if the recent college grad gets approved and the senior engineer does not get selected in the lottery for a visa, you’re stuck without your senior engineer.
Purchasing power: Selig Institute, University of Georgia. Immigration Policy Center May 2013. http://www.immigrationpolicy.org/sites/default/files/docs/new_americans_in_minnesota_2013_1.pdf.
Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI, 2013) estimates how many new workers MN would see under the Senate’s proposed reform bill. H-1B visa reform would bring about 1,000 new highly skilled professional immigrants to MN, with the results above. H-2A, H-2B and the new W-1 category availability account for the 8800 new jobs by 2020 and $348M in additional income.