Innovative financial channels to raise financial resources for the Tunisian State Budget and the Tunisian Economy

1. ‫واﻟﺪﻳﻤﻘﺮاﻃﻴﺔ‬ ‫م‬ ‫ﺳ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫دراﺳﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﻛﺰ‬
‫ﻣﻐﻠﻘﺔ‬ ‫ﻧﺪوة‬:‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎدﻳﺔ‬ ‫وا‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺎﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫"زﻣﺔ‬ ‫ا‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺨﺮوج‬ ‫وﻣﻘﺘﺮﺣﺎت‬ ‫آﻓﺎق‬
،‫ﺗﻮﻧﺲ‬19‫ﺳﺒﺘﻤﺒﺮ‬2017
‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫آﻟﻴﺎت‬ ‫ﺗﻔﻌﻴﻞ‬ ‫54ورة‬
‫اﻟﺪوﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻤﻴﺰاﻧﻴﺔ‬
‫و‬67‫اﻟﺘﻮﻧ‬ ‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬ ‫ﻟ‬
© 2008 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
‫ﻧﺎﺑﻲ‬ ‫ﺳﺎﻣﻲ‬ ‫ﻣﺤﻤﻮد‬
‫ﺟﺎﻣﻌﺔ‬‫ﻗﺮﻃﺎج‬FSEG Nabeul -
‫ﻣﺨﺒﺮ‬‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬ !‫ا‬‫اﻟﺼﻨﺎﻋﻲ‬ ‫واﻟﺘ)(ف‬-LEGI
‫اﻟﺘﻮﻧﺴﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﺪرﺳﺔ‬‫ﻟﻠﺘﻘﻨﺒﺎت‬Ecole Polytechnique de Tunisie -

2. The Tunisian Governance Indicators (1996-2015)
(ranges from 0 (lowest) to 100 (highest) rank)
60
65
70
75
‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ HI‫اﻟﺘﻮﻧ‬ ‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬J!‫ا‬ ‫ﺟﺎذﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺪﻫﻮر‬‫ﻟﻠﻤﺴﺘﺜﻤﺮﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﺎﻟﻨﺴﺒﺔ‬ HI‫اﻟﺘﻮﻧ‬ ‫ﻗﺘﺼﺎد‬J!‫ا‬ ‫ﺟﺎذﺑﻴﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﺪﻫﻮر‬
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
© 2008 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Control of Corruption
Rule of Law
Regulatory Quality
Government Effectiveness
Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism
Voice and Accountability
Source: Data from the the worldwide Governance Indicators, 2016 Update
2

3. ‫اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ‬ ‫ت‬J!‫وﻛﺎ‬ ‫ﻃﺮف‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻮﻧﺲ‬ ‫ﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻲ‬J!‫ا‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺗﺪﻫﻮر‬‫اﻟﺪوﻟﻴﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ‬ ‫ت‬J!‫وﻛﺎ‬ ‫ﻃﺮف‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻟﺘﻮﻧﺲ‬ ‫ﺋﺘﻤﺎﻧﻲ‬J!‫ا‬ ‫اﻟﺘﺼﻨﻴﻒ‬ ‫ﺗﺪﻫﻮر‬
‫اﻟﻤﻀﺎرﺑﺔ‬ ‫درﺟﺎت‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﻳﺔ‬J!‫ا‬ ‫اﻟﺪرﺟﺎت‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬‫اﻟﻤﻀﺎرﺑﺔ‬ ‫درﺟﺎت‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫ﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎرﻳﺔ‬J!‫ا‬ ‫اﻟﺪرﺟﺎت‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬
B1: Highly speculative
© 2008 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Albania
Armenia
Angola
Bahrain
Montenegro
Suriname
Tunisia
3

4. 40,7%
44,6% 46,9% 46,6%
50,8%
55,4%
61,9%
66,9%
50%
60%
70%
80%
‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫وارﺗﻔﺎع‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫اﻟﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﺰاﻳﺪ‬‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫وارﺗﻔﺎع‬ ‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫اﻟﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺗﺰاﻳﺪ‬
2500
3000
3500
‫إﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‬‫إﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‬‫ﺗﻘﻠﺺ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ([‫ﻣﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ‬‫ﺗﻘﻠﺺ‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ([‫ﻣﺒﺎ‬ ‫ﺧﺎرﺟﻲ‬
‫اﻟﺨﺎرج‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻬﺮﺑﺔ‬ ‫ا!_ﻣﻮال‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫وﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬‫اﻟﺨﺎرج‬ ‫إﻟﻰ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻬﺮﺑﺔ‬ ‫ا!_ﻣﻮال‬ ‫ﻣﻦ‬ ‫ﻋﺎﻟﻲ‬ ‫وﻣﺴﺘﻮى‬
16,0% 18,5% 18,9% 18,4% 20,1% 19,0% 21,6% 20,45%
24,7%
25,9% 28,0% 26,2%
30,7% 35,0%
40,3%
46,5%
40,7%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 June
2017
External public debt (% GDP)
Domestic public debt (% GDP)
Public debt (%GDP)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
FDIs net inflows (USD millions)
© 2008 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Public debt (%GDP)
Tunisian economy on the downward part (> 40%) of the U-inverted curve linking the external debt to
the economic growth. Along this downward part of the curve, the external debt dampens the economic
growth through two channels:
i) the adverse effects on the physical capital accumulation (a contribution of 1/3 on average)
ii) the negative effects on the total factor productivity (a contribution of 2/3 on average) (Pattillo et
Illicit Financial outflows (USD millions)
4

5. ‫اﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‬‫اﺳﺘﺜﻤﺎر‬‫و‬‫و‬‫اﻧﻜﻤﺎش‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫وﻃﻨﻲ‬ ‫ادﺧﺎر‬‫اﻧﻜﻤﺎش‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫وﻃﻨﻲ‬ ‫ادﺧﺎر‬
‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺎﻗﻢ‬ ‫و‬‫اﻟﺨﺎرﺟﻲ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫اﻟﺤﺎﺟﺔ‬ ‫ﺗﻔﺎﻗﻢ‬ ‫و‬
25,6%
23,1%22%
23%
24%
25%
26%
27%
20,9%
11,0%
23,1%
20,0%
10%
11%
12%
13%
14%
15%
16%
17%
18%
19%
20%
21%
22%
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Gross domestic savings (%GDP) Gross capital formation (%GDP)
© 2008 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
Gross domestic savings (%GDP) Gross capital formation (%GDP)
The Gross fixed capital formation (in % of GDP) in Tunisia decreased from 25.6% in 2010 to 20% in 2015
with only around 64% is private investment.
This level is inferior to that prevailing in most comparable countries (Morocco : 30.2% of GDP; the
average in the upper-middle income countries: 31.6%). 5

6. ‫ﻣﺜﻘﻠﺔ‬ ‫دوﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺰاﻧﻴﺔ‬‫ﻣﺜﻘﻠﺔ‬ ‫دوﻟﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﻴﺰاﻧﻴﺔ‬‫ﺑﻌﺒﺊ‬‫ﺑﻌﺒﺊ‬‫اﻟﺘ)(ف‬ ‫ﻧﻔﻘﺎت‬‫اﻟﺘ)(ف‬ ‫ﻧﻔﻘﺎت‬))،‫دﻋﻢ‬ ،‫ﺗﺄﺟﻴﺮ‬،‫دﻋﻢ‬ ،‫ﺗﺄﺟﻴﺮ‬(...(...‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫اﻟﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻓﻮاﺋﺪ‬ ‫وﺗﺴﺪﻳﺪ‬‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫اﻟﺪﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﻓﻮاﺋﺪ‬ ‫وﺗﺴﺪﻳﺪ‬
© 2008 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
The budget space dedicated to public investment shrunk passing from 24 % in 2010 to 18.9% in 2017.
Although the government increased the public investment in infrastructure in favor of the inner and
disadvantaged regions, the growth of this type of expenditure was just of 42% from 2010 to 2017 much
lower than the 100% increase of the operational expenses. 6

7. ‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫آﻟﻴﺎت‬ ‫ﺗﻔﻌﻴﻞ‬ ‫(ورة‬o‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫آﻟﻴﺎت‬ ‫ﺗﻔﻌﻴﻞ‬ ‫(ورة‬o
‫ذات‬ ‫ﻧﻔﻘﺎت‬
‫ﺻﺑﻐﺔ‬
© 2008 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
‫دﻓﻊ‬
‫اﻹﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر‬
‫ﺻﺑﻐﺔ‬
‫اﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ‬

8. Titrisation des revenus futurs – Securitization – ‫ا‬‫ﻟﺗورﯾﻖ‬
( by private investors or CBT through Targeted Quantitative Easing)
‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫آﻟﻴﺎت‬ ‫ﺗﻔﻌﻴﻞ‬ ‫(ورة‬o‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫آﻟﻴﺎت‬ ‫ﺗﻔﻌﻴﻞ‬ ‫(ورة‬o
Sukuk ‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎرﻛﺔ‬‫واﻹﺳﺗﺻﻧﺎع‬ ‫ﺻﻛوك‬
Reconciliation financial certificates ‫ﻟﻠﻣﺻﺎﻟﺣﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬ ‫أوراق‬‫اﻹﻗﺗﺻﺎدﯾﺔ‬
Diaspora Investment Bonds
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺧﺎرج‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺗوﻧﺳﯾﯾن‬ ‫اﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎرﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬ ‫أوراق‬
Social Impact Bonds + phylanthropy
‫اﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬ ‫أوراق‬
‫ذات‬ ‫ﻧﻔﻘﺎت‬
‫اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎرﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺻﻧﺎدﯾﻖ‬
© 2008 Deloitte Touche Tohmatsu
‫دﻓﻊ‬
‫اﻹﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎر‬
‫ذات‬ ‫ﻧﻔﻘﺎت‬
‫ﺻﺑﻐﺔ‬
‫اﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﯾﺔ‬
Crowdfunding ‫اﻟﺗﻣوﯾل‬‫اﻟﺗﺷﺎرﻛﻲ‬-
oopératives‫ا‬‫ﻟﺗﻌﺎﺿدﯾﺎت‬-
FCP‫اﻻﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎرﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﺻﻧﺎدﯾﻖ‬-

9. ‫ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺒﺌﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫ت‬Jq‫ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮﻳ‬ ‫أوﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬‫ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺒﺌﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫ت‬Jq‫ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮﻳ‬ ‫أوﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬20602060‫دﻳﻨﺎر‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻴﻮن‬‫دﻳﻨﺎر‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻴﻮن‬
‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ‬‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ‬‫اﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬‫اﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ‬‫اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻘﺪر‬‫اﻟﻤﻘﺪر‬
‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫آﻟﻴﺎت‬‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫آﻟﻴﺎت‬
Refinancement de la BCT entre Mars et Avril 2017 a 500 millions de
dinars
Titrisation des revenus futurs (Dividendes
futures – Banques + Entreprises bénéficiaires)
+ TQE (Assouplissement Monétaire Ciblé) :
Refinancement de la BCT entre Mars et Avril 2017 a
augmenté de 1000 millions de dinars dinars
500‫دﯾﻧﺎر‬ ‫ﻣﻠﯾون‬
+ TQE (Assouplissement Monétaire Ciblé) :
‫ﺗورﯾﻖ‬‫اﻟﻣﺳﺗﻘﺑﻠﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﻣوارد‬
+
‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﻟﺳوق‬ ‫طرﯾﻖ‬ ‫ﻋن‬ ‫اﻟﻣرﻛزي‬ ‫اﻟﺑﻧك‬ ‫ﻣن‬ ‫ﺗﻣوﯾل‬
‫اﻷھداف‬ ‫ﻣﺣددة‬ ‫ﺗوﺳﻌﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻣﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﺳﯾﺎﺳﺔ‬ ‫إطﺎر‬
73.1 milliards de dollars entre 2002 et 2012 (10 pays
dont la Malaisie (61%), UAE (7%) Saudia Arabia (30%)
) 560 millions de dollar par pays/an
25% pour la Tunisie 140 millions de dollars
330 millions de
dinars
330‫دﯾﻧﺎر‬ ‫ﻣﻠﯾون‬
Sukuk Moucharaka (infrastructure Sukuk)
destinés aux investisseurs étrangers et
domestiques
+ PPP
9
25% pour la Tunisie 140 millions de dollars
‫اﻟﻌﺎم‬ ‫اﻟﻘطﺎع‬ ‫ﺑﯾن‬ ‫اﻟﺷراﻛﺔ‬ ‫إطﺎر‬ ‫ﻓﻲ‬ ‫اﻟﻣﺷﺎرﻛﺔ‬ ‫ﺻﻛوك‬
‫اﻟﺧﺎص‬ ‫واﻟﻘطﺎع‬
4.6% du PIB Transferts Tunisiens à l’étranger = 1794
millions de USD en 2016
-- > 5% des transferts 0.23% PIB
Israel in 1951 which have totaled more than 25 billion USD from the
Jewish Diaspora. They also cite the example of the State Bank of India
which has raised over 11 billion USD
230 millions de
dinars
230‫دﯾﻧﺎر‬ ‫ﻣﻠﯾون‬
Diaspora Investment Bonds
(Valorisation de Sites Archélologiues dans les
différentes régions projets d’infrasturcutre dans
les régions )
‫ﺑﺎﻟﺧﺎرج‬ ‫اﻟﺗوﻧﺳﯾﺔ‬ ‫ﻟﻠﺟﺎﻟﯾﺔ‬ ‫اﺳﺗﺛﻣﺎرﯾﺔ‬ ‫رﻗﺎع‬

10. ‫ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺒﺌﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫ت‬Jq‫ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮﻳ‬ ‫أوﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬‫ﺳﻨﻮﻳﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻌﺒﺌﺘﻬﺎ‬ ‫اﻟﻤﻤﻜﻦ‬ ‫ت‬Jq‫ﻟﻠﺘﻤﻮﻳ‬ ‫أوﻟﻲ‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬20602060‫دﻳﻨﺎر‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻴﻮن‬‫دﻳﻨﺎر‬ ‫ﻣﻠﻴﻮن‬
‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ‬‫ﻃﺮﻳﻘﺔ‬‫اﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬‫اﻟﺘﻘﺪﻳﺮ‬
‫اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ‬‫اﻟﻤﺒﻠﻎ‬
‫اﻟﻤﻘﺪر‬‫اﻟﻤﻘﺪر‬
‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫آﻟﻴﺎت‬‫ﺗﻘﻠﻴﺪﻳﺔ‬ ‫ﻏﻴﺮ‬ ‫ﺗﻤﻮﻳﻞ‬ ‫آﻟﻴﺎت‬
L'étude de Abdallah Tahar " ‫ﺣﺻﯾﻠﺔ‬‫اﻟزﻛﺎة‬‫وﺗﻧﻣﯾﺔ‬‫اﻟﻣﺟﺗﻣﻊ‬ "
publiée dans le livre "Economics of Zaqah" a estimé à
5.27% du PIB le montant des zaqat distribués
(individuellement) par les tunisiens.
Social Impact Bonds
(programmes à caractère social – logements
--> 0.5% PIB
60 Social Impact Bonds (SIB) launched in 15 countries
until June 2016. The first emission was done by the
Social Finance UK in 2010 with the target of reducing
reoffending. The following countries issued their first SIB
in the year indicated between brackets: USA, Australia,
Germany, Netherlands (2013), Belgium, Canada (2014),
Portugal, India, Switzerland, Austria, Israel, Finland
(2015)
500 millions
de dinars
500‫دﯾﻧﺎر‬ ‫ﻣﻠﯾون‬
(programmes à caractère social – logements
sociaux, aides aux familles pauvres,
réhabilitation des écoles, etc.) en coordination
avec le Ministère des Affaires sociales, le
Ministère des Affaires religieuses et la société
civile
‫اﻟﺑﻌد‬ ‫ذات‬ ‫رﻗﺎع‬‫اﻹﺟﺗﻣﺎﻋﻲ‬
(0.5% PIB)
500 millions
Reconciliation financial certificates
10
(0.5% PIB)
10% fuite annuelle des capitaux
500 millions
de dinars
500‫دﯾﻧﺎر‬ ‫ﻣﻠﯾون‬
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