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The Capital Market




© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Capital

            • One of the most important concepts in all
              of economics is the concept of capital.

            • Capital goods are those goods produced
              by the economic system that are used as
              inputs to produce other goods and
              services in the future.




© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Physical Capital

            • Physical, or tangible, capital refers to the
              material things used as inputs in the
              production of future goods and services.

            • Major categories of physical capital:
                   • Nonresidential structures

                   • Durable equipment

                   • Residential structures

                   • Inventories

© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing      Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Social Capital

            • Social capital is capital that provides
              services to the public.

            • Major categories of social capital:
                   • Public works (roads and bridges)

                   • Public services (police and fire protection)




© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing     Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Intangible Capital

            • Nonmaterial things that contribute to the
              output of future goods and services are
              known as intangible capital.

            • For example, an advertising campaign to
              establish a brand name produces
              intangible capital called goodwill.




© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing       Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Human Capital

            • Human capital is a form of intangible
              capital that includes the skills and other
              knowledge that workers have or acquire
              through education and training.

            • Human capital yields valuable services to a
              firm over time.




© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing     Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Measuring Capital

            • The measure of a firm’s capital stock is
              the current market value of its plant,
              equipment, inventories, and intangible
              assets.

            • When we speak of capital, we refer not to
              money or financial assets such as bonds
              or stocks, but to the firm’s physical plant,
              equipment, inventory, and intangible
              assets.

© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Investment

            • Investment refers to new capital additions
              to a firm’s capital stock.

            • Although capital is measured at a given
              point in time (a stock), investment is
              measured over a period of time (a flow).

            • The flow of investment increases the
              capital stock.


© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Private Investment in the U.S.
                             Economy, 1999
       Private Investment in the U.S. Economy, 1999
                                                    BILLIONS OF          AS A PERCENTAGE            AS A
                                                     CURRENT             OF TOTAL GROSS          PERCENTAGE
                                                     DOLLARS                INVESTMENT             OF GDP
       Nonresidential structures                           285.6                17.3                      3.1
       Equipment and software                              917.4                55.6                      9.9
       Change in inventories                                 43.3                2.6                      0.5
       Residential structures                              403.8                24.5                      4.3
       Total gross private investment                    1,650.1               100.0                     17.8
          − depreciation                                 − 961.4               − 58.3                   − 10.3
       Net investment =                                    688.7                41.7                      7.5
          gross investment minus depreciation


       • Depreciation is a decline in an asset’s economic value
         over time.
© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing        Principles of Economics, 6/e      Karl Case, Ray Fair
The Capital Market


                       • The capital market is a
                         market in which
                         households supply their
                         savings to firms that
                         demand funds to buy
                         capital goods.



© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
$1,000 in Savings Becomes $1,000 of Investment




© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Bond Lending

            • A bond is a contract between a borrower
              and a lender, in which the borrower agrees
              to pay the loan at some time in the future,
              along with interest payments along the
              way.

            • In essence, households supply the capital
              demanded by a business firm.
              Presumably, the investment will generate
              added revenues that will facilitate the
              payment of interest to the household.
© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing    Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
The Financial Capital Market

            • The financial capital market is the part of
              the capital market in which savers and
              investors interact through intermediaries.

            • Capital income is income earned on
              savings that have been put to use through
              financial capital markets.




© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Capital Income: Interest and Profit

                  • Interest is the payment made for the
                    use of money. Interest is a reward for
                    postponing consumption.

                  • Profit is the excess of revenues over
                    cost in a given period. Profit is a reward
                    for innovation and risk taking.




© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Financial Capital Markets in Action

            • Four mechanisms for channeling
              household savings into investment
              projects include:
                   • Business loans

                   • Venture capital

                   • Retained earnings

                   • The stock market




© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Financial Markets Link Household
                  Saving and Investment by Firms




© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Capital Accumulation and Allocation

            • In modern industrial societies, investment
              decisions (capital production decisions)
              are made primarily by firms.
            • Households decide how much to save, and
              in the long-run saving limits or constrains
              the amount of investment that firms can
              undertake.
            • The capital market exists to direct savings
              into profitable investment projects.

© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Forming Expectations

            • Decision makers must have expectations
              about what is going to happen in the
              future.

            • The investment process requires that the
              potential investor evaluate the expected
              flow of future productive services that an
              investment project will yield.



© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
The Demand for New Capital and the
                   Investment Decision

            • The ability to lend at the market rate of interest
              means that there is an opportunity cost
              associated with every investment project.

            • The evaluation process thus involves not only
              estimating future benefits, but also comparing the
              possible alternative uses of the funds required to
              undertake the project.

            • At a minimum, those funds earn interest in
              financial markets.


© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Comparing Costs and Expected Return


                          • The expected rate of return is
                            the annual rate of return that a
                            firm expects to obtain through
                            a capital investment.




© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Determinants of the
                              Expected Rate of Return

            • The expected rate of return on an
              investment project depends on:
                   • the price of the investment,

                   • the expected length of time the project
                       provides additional cost savings or revenue,
                       and
                   • the expected amount of revenue attributable
                       each year to the project.



© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
A Menu of Investment Choices and
                   Expected Rates of Return
        Potential Investment Projects and Expected Rates of Return for a Hypothetical Firm,
        Based on Forecasts of Future Profits Attributable to the Investment
                                                              (1)                 (2)
                                                            TOTAL           EXPECTED RATE
                                                         INVESTMENT           OF RETURN
                           PROJECT                        (DOLLARS)           (PERCENT)
        A. New computer network                               400,000                 25
        B. New branch plant                                 2,600,000                 20
        C. Sales office in another state                    1,500,000                 15
        D. New automated billing system                       100,000                 12
        E. Ten new delivery trucks                            400,000                 10
        F. Advertising campaign                             1,000,000                   7
        G. Employee cafeteria                                 100,000                   5



© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
A Menu of Investment Choices and
                   Expected Rates of Return

                                                        • When the interest rate is
                                                          low, firms are more likely to
                                                          invest in new plant and
                                                          equipment than when the
                                                          interest rate is high.

                                                        • The interest rate determines
                                                          the opportunity cost
                                                          (alternative investment) of
                                                          each project.



© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Investment Demand

                                                        • The market demand curve
                                                          for new capital is the sum
                                                          of all the individual demand
                                                          curves for new capital in
                                                          the economy.

                                                        • In a sense, the investment
                                                          demand schedule is a
                                                          ranking of all the
                                                          investment opportunities in
                                                          the economy in order of
                                                          expected yield.

© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
The Profit-Maximizing
                                   Investment Decision

              • A perfectly competitive profit-maximizing
                firm will keep investing in new capital up to
                the point at which the expected rate of
                return is equal to the interest rate.

              • This is analogous to saying that the firm
                will continue investing up to the point at
                which the marginal revenue product of
                capital is equal to the price of capital.

                                           MRPK = PK
© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing   Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair
Present Value

            • The present value (PV), or present
              discounted value, of R dollars t years from
              now is:




            • Lower interest rates result in higher
              present values. The firm has to pay more
              now to purchase the same number of
              future dollars.
© 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing     Principles of Economics, 6/e   Karl Case, Ray Fair

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Ch10

  • 1. The Capital Market © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 2. Capital • One of the most important concepts in all of economics is the concept of capital. • Capital goods are those goods produced by the economic system that are used as inputs to produce other goods and services in the future. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 3. Physical Capital • Physical, or tangible, capital refers to the material things used as inputs in the production of future goods and services. • Major categories of physical capital: • Nonresidential structures • Durable equipment • Residential structures • Inventories © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 4. Social Capital • Social capital is capital that provides services to the public. • Major categories of social capital: • Public works (roads and bridges) • Public services (police and fire protection) © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 5. Intangible Capital • Nonmaterial things that contribute to the output of future goods and services are known as intangible capital. • For example, an advertising campaign to establish a brand name produces intangible capital called goodwill. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 6. Human Capital • Human capital is a form of intangible capital that includes the skills and other knowledge that workers have or acquire through education and training. • Human capital yields valuable services to a firm over time. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 7. Measuring Capital • The measure of a firm’s capital stock is the current market value of its plant, equipment, inventories, and intangible assets. • When we speak of capital, we refer not to money or financial assets such as bonds or stocks, but to the firm’s physical plant, equipment, inventory, and intangible assets. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 8. Investment • Investment refers to new capital additions to a firm’s capital stock. • Although capital is measured at a given point in time (a stock), investment is measured over a period of time (a flow). • The flow of investment increases the capital stock. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 9. Private Investment in the U.S. Economy, 1999 Private Investment in the U.S. Economy, 1999 BILLIONS OF AS A PERCENTAGE AS A CURRENT OF TOTAL GROSS PERCENTAGE DOLLARS INVESTMENT OF GDP Nonresidential structures 285.6 17.3 3.1 Equipment and software 917.4 55.6 9.9 Change in inventories 43.3 2.6 0.5 Residential structures 403.8 24.5 4.3 Total gross private investment 1,650.1 100.0 17.8 − depreciation − 961.4 − 58.3 − 10.3 Net investment = 688.7 41.7 7.5 gross investment minus depreciation • Depreciation is a decline in an asset’s economic value over time. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 10. The Capital Market • The capital market is a market in which households supply their savings to firms that demand funds to buy capital goods. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 11. $1,000 in Savings Becomes $1,000 of Investment © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 12. Bond Lending • A bond is a contract between a borrower and a lender, in which the borrower agrees to pay the loan at some time in the future, along with interest payments along the way. • In essence, households supply the capital demanded by a business firm. Presumably, the investment will generate added revenues that will facilitate the payment of interest to the household. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 13. The Financial Capital Market • The financial capital market is the part of the capital market in which savers and investors interact through intermediaries. • Capital income is income earned on savings that have been put to use through financial capital markets. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 14. Capital Income: Interest and Profit • Interest is the payment made for the use of money. Interest is a reward for postponing consumption. • Profit is the excess of revenues over cost in a given period. Profit is a reward for innovation and risk taking. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 15. Financial Capital Markets in Action • Four mechanisms for channeling household savings into investment projects include: • Business loans • Venture capital • Retained earnings • The stock market © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 16. Financial Markets Link Household Saving and Investment by Firms © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 17. Capital Accumulation and Allocation • In modern industrial societies, investment decisions (capital production decisions) are made primarily by firms. • Households decide how much to save, and in the long-run saving limits or constrains the amount of investment that firms can undertake. • The capital market exists to direct savings into profitable investment projects. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 18. Forming Expectations • Decision makers must have expectations about what is going to happen in the future. • The investment process requires that the potential investor evaluate the expected flow of future productive services that an investment project will yield. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 19. The Demand for New Capital and the Investment Decision • The ability to lend at the market rate of interest means that there is an opportunity cost associated with every investment project. • The evaluation process thus involves not only estimating future benefits, but also comparing the possible alternative uses of the funds required to undertake the project. • At a minimum, those funds earn interest in financial markets. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 20. Comparing Costs and Expected Return • The expected rate of return is the annual rate of return that a firm expects to obtain through a capital investment. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 21. Determinants of the Expected Rate of Return • The expected rate of return on an investment project depends on: • the price of the investment, • the expected length of time the project provides additional cost savings or revenue, and • the expected amount of revenue attributable each year to the project. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 22. A Menu of Investment Choices and Expected Rates of Return Potential Investment Projects and Expected Rates of Return for a Hypothetical Firm, Based on Forecasts of Future Profits Attributable to the Investment (1) (2) TOTAL EXPECTED RATE INVESTMENT OF RETURN PROJECT (DOLLARS) (PERCENT) A. New computer network 400,000 25 B. New branch plant 2,600,000 20 C. Sales office in another state 1,500,000 15 D. New automated billing system 100,000 12 E. Ten new delivery trucks 400,000 10 F. Advertising campaign 1,000,000 7 G. Employee cafeteria 100,000 5 © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 23. A Menu of Investment Choices and Expected Rates of Return • When the interest rate is low, firms are more likely to invest in new plant and equipment than when the interest rate is high. • The interest rate determines the opportunity cost (alternative investment) of each project. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 24. Investment Demand • The market demand curve for new capital is the sum of all the individual demand curves for new capital in the economy. • In a sense, the investment demand schedule is a ranking of all the investment opportunities in the economy in order of expected yield. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 25. The Profit-Maximizing Investment Decision • A perfectly competitive profit-maximizing firm will keep investing in new capital up to the point at which the expected rate of return is equal to the interest rate. • This is analogous to saying that the firm will continue investing up to the point at which the marginal revenue product of capital is equal to the price of capital. MRPK = PK © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair
  • 26. Present Value • The present value (PV), or present discounted value, of R dollars t years from now is: • Lower interest rates result in higher present values. The firm has to pay more now to purchase the same number of future dollars. © 2002 Prentice Hall Business Publishing Principles of Economics, 6/e Karl Case, Ray Fair